Rome 1 499A13A600000578_5435055_image

Police had to be called in to the Vatican…

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To help the priests fight off this Global Warming….

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…Caused by the warm front seen over Italy on this mornings UK Met map. Obviously it is warm snow.

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The cold high-pressure over Scandinavia will repress the mid-Atlantic gale (in the lower left of the above map), eastward to Spain. West winds beneath it may swing mild air up over Spain, changing snows to rain there in two days. (Below: GFS 48 hour forecast).

Rome 5 gfs_ptype_slp_eur_9

The low-pressure is then expected to loop north from Spain to the Atlantic west of Ireland, pulling milder air north and changing the snows to rain over France and Italy by four days from now. But Great Britain will continue to get snow. (Below: GFS 96 hour forecast.)

Rome 6 gfs_ptype_slp_eur_17

It is to be hoped that the peoples of Britain will be inspired by the courage of the people of Rome, as they faced the dangers of White Global Warming for the first time in six years. (/Sarc).

(GFS Maps from Weatherbell site.)


ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Super Surge Alert! (Look Out Below!) (This means you, Europe)

An extraordinary plume of above-normal (but still sub-freezing) air is pouring up to the Pole from the Atlantic. The spike in the mean-temperatures-above-eighty-degrees-latitude graph, if not “unprecedented”, is highly unusual.

DMI5 0223 meanT_2018

This is caused by high pressure towards Eurasia and low pressure towards Canada and Greenland creating a roaring south-to-north flow from the North Atlantic over the Pole.


However, as I have pointed out to the point of sounding like a broken record, (IE “repetitive”, (for those of you too young to have experienced a record skipping on a record-player, and who think a “broken record” involves record temperatures), ) we do not get these milder-than-normal temperatures at the Pole without the displaced cold air freezing the socks off people in more southern latitudes.

The big high-pressure over the Eurasian side of Arctic Sea has a southern side, which creates the east winds of Mordor, bringing Siberian bitterness west into Europe. Here is a map from an Italian Site, worried about what is looming.

Super Surge 1 Gelo-21Feb18

I’ve been watching the UK Met maps, and must comment that they do a bad job of showing the east winds from Mordor. They never show a cold front progressing from Siberia to England. The isobars hint at the deepening chill, and at daffodils ducking back down into the dirt, but the fronts they draw on their maps give no clue. Here is their map for this coming Sunday.

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The BBC is reporting the Met Office is issuing “amber alerts”. (Hat tip to ).

Parts of Germany may see a fortnight pass before temperatures get back above freezing. Expect headlines.

North America will also likely see the displaced arctic air swooping south, though it may take longer to develop. It is already cold in the west, but, if the pattern develops as the veteran forecasters D’Aleo and Bastardi are forecasting at the Weatherbell site, the east of the USA may make headlines in early March, as a classic negative NOA builds high pressure over Canada and Greenland and low pressure off the east coast.

Super Surge 3 gfs_z500a_5d_noram_65(3)

The thing which I think may be a fly in the ointment is that nothing is truly “classic” in the current situation. Why not? Because the sun has gone “quiet”. All our hard-gleaned wisdom, that goes into what we define as “classic”, is based around much that is dependent on the sun being “noisy”. But the sun’s face has gone blank. (After a couple spots rotated across its face, and gave the earth a small blast in passing, the sun’s face is again spotless.)

Sunspots 20180223 latest

In fact the current sunspot cycle (#24) resembles the sunspot cycle at the start of the Dalton Minimum in 1798 (#5).

Sunspots Layman's January sc5_sc24_1

Much that we describe as a “classic” weather pattern is therefore subject to a degree of doubt. Patterns may not behave as they behaved in the recent past, but rather as they behaved in 1798.  And we have poor records from that long ago.

This does not render old-school forecasters obsolete.  Some rules do not change. The freezing point of water remains the same, and so on and so forth. However I think we should expect the unexpected. Forecasters should stay on their toes, and as soon as they become aware a pattern is not behaving in a “classic” manner, they should use all their wisdom to gather an idea (called “a forecast”) of what the pattern actually is up to.

The thing to watch for in the current situation is the building of the “classic” blocking-high-pressure of a negative NAO over Canada and Greenland. If it fails to form, expect the unexpected.

There is another thing fun to watch for, in the current situation. There are certain Alarmists who will note the milder-than-normal temperatures over the Pole, and will make a great big media event over announcing the planet is facing Global Warming, and they will stage this event in some locale roughly a half hour before the winds from Mordor arrive from the east, and a howling blizzard ensues.  People leaving the press conference will get stuck in the snow.

If this classic scenario fails to form, I will be deeply disappointed, for I confess I find such spectacles deliciously entertaining.

ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Going Bananas–

This will be a brief post, discussing the fact a surge of relatively mild air up to the Pole often occurs in concert with arctic outbreaks at lower latitudes.

Unfortunately the media tends to focus on the warming events and ignore the colder events. Therefore I advise people to visit the “Ice Age Now” site, which has a wonderful group of contributors who submit reports of below-average temperatures from all over the world.

I advise people to keep an eye on that site for the next month, as Joseph D’Aleo, at the Weatherbell site, sees signs of a situation developing that very well could bring arctic outbreaks to both eastern North America and much of northern Eurasia. (The Weatherbell site offers a week “free trial”, and it might be worth the reader’s time to take advantage now, in order to read Mr. D’Aleo’s reasoning.)

One ingredient to his forecast involves the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is especially handy to have, as an indicator (IE: “teleconnection”) which is especially reliable in the late winter.  It is forecast to plunge off the chart:

Bananas 2 gefs_nao_00(22)

To me, this seems a sort of a response to the surges of relatively mild (but sub-freezing) air we’ve watched rush up to the Pole:

DMI5 0219 meanT_2018

However the surges up to the Pole may be in response to the surges of cold we saw pour south, in North America in late December and early January, and in eastern Asia in mid January. (I posted pictures of an attractive Russian woman’s frosted eyelashes back then, if you recall.) The wobbles of a loopy jet stream seems a sort of chicken-or-the-egg situation; and it is hard to be sure which event is causing the other to occur.

Way back in early January, as a Blizzard hit Boston, I pointed out that the cold front associated with that arctic outbreak didn’t merely reach the Gulf coast and Florida, but crossed the entire Gulf of Mexico. It didn’t bring frosts that far south, but did bring cold rains and cool temperatures that stunted the growth of tropical crops, such as bananas.

One thing I admire about Joseph D’Aleo is that his quick mind is keenly observant of things in everyday life that pertain to Global Weather Patterns, and I have to tip my hat in a bowing sweep for his observation of the notice on the bananas at his local market:

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I also noticed that the Ice Age Now site noted a similar stunting of a warmth-loving crop, (rice), due to cooler-than-normal temperatures in Brazil’s southern-hemisphere summer.

This all goes to show you that a loopy (meridional) pattern tends to mess things up. However such a loopy pattern actually seems more of a sign of a cooling pattern than a warming pattern. It seems more in line with a “Little Ice Age” than a “Medieval Warm Period”. It seems to affirm some hunches I have about the complicated effects of the “Quiet Sun.”  A warming earth would seemingly cause the polar boundary to retreat north, as it does in the summer time, and allow fewer incursions of cold air far to the south.

To me there seems to be no shortage of bananas, when it comes to attempts on the part of Alarmists to portray the south-diving jet stream as a sign of Global Warming. When it recently became apparent that the south-diving jet has cooled the southeast USA, in the fifty years since the sun was “noisy”, Alarmists did not describe the southeast as a “colder area”, but rather as a “warming hole.”

Unfortunately this has led to all sorts of rude jokes involving who the “holes” are, and where they are located. Though I will confess to chuckling in an undignified manner at some of the rude jokes, I don’t think it helps the debate much if we all go bananas.

Instead we should try to lift ourselves above the muck of the downright silly politics, and instead attempt to grasp what in the world is actually going on. Sift through all of the data, not merely half of it. For example, glaciers in New Zealand are growing, not shrinking as the media likes to suggest, and what is more they are not growing because warming causes increased precipitation, but rather because of colder temperatures.

Stay tuned and keep studying.