The graph above says it all. This year has the highest sea-ice minimum of the past six years. The extent of sea-ice is not decreasing. It is increasing. The so-called “Death Spiral” is spiraling backwards, going the wrong way. The Alarmist’s tidy theory is confronted by the fact reality is not tidy. Reality is elegant, but we tend to see the elegance as untidy.
Reality messes up our preconceptions, and embarrasses us by, rather than affirming our pet theories, instead confirming that our personal confirmation-bias is a reality, by showing us what-we-were-sure-of was wrong, wrong, wrong, yet again.
It is rough being mortal and flawed. But it is rougher when you think you are beyond reproach.
It must be rough to be a sea-ice Alarmist, right now. For nearly two decades they’ve been pounding their drum about the sea-ice vanishing, (and calling people who hesitated to join their crusading parade cruel things, such as “a denier,”) but this year the sea-ice disobeyed them and increased in a rather big way.
How big? Well. Here is the current DMI volume graph:
It looks like volume has increased by roughly a thousand cubic kilometers over the last year. How much is that? Well, imagine an ice cube that is 6.2 miles wide, 6.2 miles tall, and 6.2 miles deep. But of course, like a pat of butter spread out over a slice of toast, the increase is spread over the Arctic Sea and is not a nice, big cube, easy to measure. But it is considerable.
This increase puts a rather gaping hole in the hull of the Death Spiral Theory, which presupposes that what we shall witness is a “positive feedback.” IE: Less-ice will encourage the melting of more-ice. But last year we had less-ice, and rather than encouraging less-ice, the exact opposite occurred. Rather than less-ice we have more-ice.
According to the ideas behind the “Death Spiral”, this is impossible. Why? Because that theory assumes less-ice will mean more of the Arctic Ocean does not have sunlight bounced back to outer space by the “albedo” of white sea-ice, and the Arctic Ocean will instead absorb the same sunlight due to the different “albedo” of dark waters. Therefore, the simplistic idea assumes more open water will lead to warmer waters which will melt more ice, which in turn will lead to more waters exposed to sunlight which will become even warmer and melt even more ice. It is a theoretical vicious-cycle and “positive feedback”, but it isn’t happening.
Why not? Because the initial theory was way, way too simplistic. The “Death Spiral” theory was tidy, and quite correct in terms of a single variable, but arctic sea-ice involves more than one variable. I have never bothered count how many variables are involved. I can’t tell you whether three or thirteen or 47.34 variables are involved, but I know the initial theory was so focused on its tidy explanation it was blind to other explanations, other variables, other ideas.
For eight years this blog has pointed out the other ideas. I have typed many thousands, perhaps millions, of words, explaining why the Death Spiral idea is too simple. But the simpletons are still warning everyone, “Sea-ice is melting to an unpresented degree, and this will end the world as we know it.”
That is why the graph above says it all. It says, “Sorry, Charlie. Sea ice is not melting to an unprecedented degree. It is increasing.”
I would like to discuss why. This would be actual science. It would venture into the elegance of Reality. It would traverse the multicolored canyons of history, witnessing the comings and goings of sea-ice and the comings and goings of men who dared sail ships in such a sea, some to profit and some to doom. One soon sees more than “albedo” is involved. Huge and wonderful powers are involved, ranging from the moods of our sun to the eruptions of our earth to the shifting of massive currents of warm and frigid waters to the undulations of our winds. I love simply describing what open eyes observe, for, even if it defies understanding, it evokes wonder.
But I’ve spent eight years doing that and it hasn’t penetrated the thick skulls of Alarmists. What do they do instead? They erase my comments on their websites. They ban me, on social platforms. They do not want to talk about it.
Therefore, I will conclude this short post with a brief diatribe about the difference between being tidy and being elegant.
It may display a certain loyalty if you stick to your guns despite an onslaught of evidence that you are wrong, but past a certain point you are no longer being faithful, and no longer are refusing to be discouraged by doubts, but rather have stepped over the line and are denying the Truth.
Truth is beauty, according to the poet John Keats, and according to other people Truth is God. Therefore, if you are picking a fight with Truth you are picking a fight with what is All-powerful. You are up against Omniscience and Omnipotence. The odds don’t look too good, if you do this thing.
Nevertheless, people are doing it. They are braying “The Big Lie” in various ways and forms, as if they can overpower the actual Truth.
This will not end well. Even engineers, who try their best to stick to Truth, (because otherwise structures may come crashing to earth), speak of “Murphy’s Law”, which states that if anything can go wrong it will go wrong. It follows that, if you don’t try your best to stick to the Truth, you discover “Murphy’s Escalation,” which states if you don’t even attempt to stand by Truth, much more will go wrong.
Much more is, in fact, now going wrong. The people who think they “won” the last election, (perhaps by altering the Truth of the actual tally of votes), are increasingly exposed as losers, for they are divorced from Truth, and all their efforts are embarrassing failures. But how can they succeed, when they refuse to admit their “agenda” or “narrative” or “postulate” or “hypothesis” may seem tidy, but has been disproven by the elegance of Truth?
In my next post I hope to show the elegance of Truth, as displayed by simply observing sea-ice without any sort of “confirmation bias.” But the point of this post is that “confirmation bias” has made Alarmists look like dunderheads, and that if they stick to their guns they are insisting on being dunderheaded.
Alarmists stated they had rock-hard evidence that the Pole would become ice-free, perhaps as early as 2016, and went on to say we should greatly alter our lives, due to this rock-hard evidence. But, rather than ice- free, the ice at the pole is (this year) increasing. They have lost their excuse for the rest of us greatly altering our lives. But they stick to their guns. We must greatly alter our lives, even if there is no reason to do so.
Sorry, Charlie. No one is buying it. And when no one is buying it, a salesman can either admit he is full of bull and back down, or completely lose self-control, and resort to extraordinary ways and means of selling his unsellable garbage.
What extraordinary means? Well, basically it involves a salesman, upon discovering no one wants to buy his garbage, whipping out a revolver and shrieking, “If you don’t buy my garbage, I will shoot you!”
Obviously, this is the behavior of a salesman who has lost control, but who seeks to gain control by bullying with a gun. Such a loss of control to gain control would be laughable, were it not the mentality of despots and dictators, and certain politicians who like the word, “mandate.”
In terms of arctic-sea-ice, such a “mandate” would state you must believe the North Pole was becoming ice-free, and if you looked at the actual facts and said, “it isn’t”, they could put you in jail.
It is behavior so absurd and ridiculous that it is bound to fail. It is the hysteria of people who have lost control, thinking they are in control.
It is nuts.
For some reason I can’t claim to understand, the nuts are at the helm, for little while. They, who are out of control, think they control, with their guns. But guns can’t hide the Truth, which is that they are out of control, can’t even control themselves, and can’t face the Truth. They are not cruising for a bruising; they are cruising for a catastrophe. Pity such people. They do not know what they do, when they crucify Truth. They have no idea of the consequences they will reap, sowing such seed.
As for me, there is only one “mandate” worthy of bowing to. It is called “Truth”. And the small truth I am sure of is: The arctic ocean is once again not ice-free, and in fact the sea-ice is increasing.
Duh. Any dolt can see this is true. But, when speaking such truth can get me banned from Facebook and Twitter, I must make a choice: Will I be socially popular, or will I be honest? Will I bow to nuts, or stand by the Truth?
Personally, I would rather stand by the Truth, for I believe that when you stand by the Truth, the Truth stands by you, [and Truth is a very fine (and also [in my experience] very loving) Power to have at your side.]