GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SINK SLIGHTLY —(A matter for concern?)

The UAH Satellite data is out for March, and show a slight drop in World temperatures.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2015_v5

This small drop of a mere .04° Celsius might not seem like a cause for concern, however it may be hinting at a greater cooling, for there is every reason for the average temperature to be rising, now.

In my opinion this has very little to do with CO2 and “Global Warming”, although people who are rooting for evidence that their (seemingly political) theory is correct might be alarmed because by now the planet’s temperature was suppose to have risen a full degree, not the mere quarter degree which one can barely see on a porch thermometer.

The reasons for temperatures to be rising are threefold. The first was evident in the “blood moon” seen during Saturday morning’s lunar eclipse.

LUNAR ECLIPSE 635636896674534237-blood-moon-Steve-Bartlett

(Photo credit Steve Bartlett)

When the moon is this reddish hue during a lunar eclipse it indicates the earth has a clean atmosphere. When volcanoes have erupted a lot of ash into the atmosphere the moon is a sickly grey hue.  Indeed, it has been quite a while since a major volcano erupted ash.

VOCANIC ASH Screen_shot_2015_01_11_at_9_31_28_AM

(Credit Joseph D’Aleo’s blog at Weatherbell)

The general view is that ash in the atmosphere has a cooling effect, and conversely, a lack of ash should allow warming.

Another cause for warming are the sea surface temperatures, which have been generally warm, especially in the north Pacific. The ENSO index tends to make the world cooler during a La Nina and warmer during a El Nino. While we haven’t experienced a “Super El Nino”, we have been in a warmish cycle with weak El Nino conditions for over a year, which gives us a second reason to expect warming.

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The third reason to expect warming involves the soar cycle. While the current cycle is the weakest in many years, we still are coming off the peak of it.

Sunspot February 2015 clip_image002_thumb6

Because we have three good reasons for World Temperatures to rise, it is a bit disconcerting that they remain level, and even dip slightly. (If you insist, you can add CO2 as a fourth good reason for temperatures to rise.)

The question then becomes, could these three (or four) good reasons be masking a fall in World Temperatures, caused by a dynamic we do not fully grasp?  For example, even though the sun is at a high point of its sunspot cycle, it’s “AP Index” is lower than it usually is even at low points in the sunspot cycle. (The AP Index is “a geomagnetic index driven by the Sun’s magnetism and the solar wind.”)

Sunspot AP Index clip_image004_thumb6

My honest answer to this question is “I don’t know”.  It does seem that, if the ENSO cycle moves to La Nina, and/or there is a major volcanic eruption, and/or the sun progresses on to the low point in its sunspot cycle, the “masking influences” could be removed, and our planet could see a plunge in its temperatures.

In such a case all the current concern about “Global Warming” will abruptly look idiotic. It seems that governments should at least be making “contingency plans” for earlier frosts, reduced crops, and increased heating costs.

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