About Caleb

I run a Childcare with my wife on a small farm in New Hampshire. Click "About" if interested in my life story.

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Awaiting The Break-up–

One aspect of watching ice melt is that one becomes aware of misconceptions we all have, and which the media should end but doesn’t.  For example, people tend to think certain parts of North America are arctic, when they are not. All one needs to do is trace lines of latitude from North America around to Europe, and one gets their eyebrows lifted. The southern tip of Greenland is at the latitude of Stockholm, Sweden; and the southern end of Hudson Bay is at the latitude of  Hamburg, Germany.

If course it spoils the thrill of sensationalism if you mention, showing water pour off a glacier in Greenland, that it is as far south as Stockholm. The public then would compare a picture of flowers blooming in a Swedish summer park with the craggy coast of Greenland, and it would seem less surprising that ice melts at the edge of Greenland’s icecap.

In like manner, when writing about how swiftly the ice breaks up in Hudson Bay, it spoils the element of Alarmism if you mention it is as far south as northern Germany. Rather than the melt seeming surprising it would seem surprising that ice remains in July, for people would think how surprising it would be if there was ice on the sea-coast of Germany in July.

The fact of the matter is that it thaws right up to the North Pole in July, and temperatures can be above freezing and still below normal.

DMI4 0712 meanT_2017

Once you become aware that thaw is the norm up there in July, what becomes more interesting are the places that dip below freezing. It is quite common, for temperatures only need be three degrees below normal, and the rain changes to snow.

One thing I miss very much is the cameras we used to have drifting around up there. As recently as 2014 2015 we had seven views, and could witness fresh falls of snow and brief refreezes of the melt-water pools.  These were especially interesting because the satellites tended to miss these events, perhaps because they occurred at the wrong time of day, perhaps because they happened in a very small area, perhaps because refreezes involved a very thin layer of air right at the surface, or perhaps for some other reason. In any case, they stopped funding the cameras. (Let us hope the de-funding was not because certain people didn’t approve that the cameras showed freezing where politicians claimed there was melting.)

The only camera we have this year is a tough one, O-buoy 14,  which refused to be crushed by ice, and survived the winter. It is not out in the Arctic Sea, but down in Parry Channel at a latitude of roughly 74° north.  I like having it located where it sits, still frozen fast in immobile ice, because it allows us to compare the current situation with the year 1819, when William Parry sailed HMS Helca and Griper in the same waters.

William Parry original.1770

Parry sailed further north and west of where O-buoy 14 now sits, and then, as ice reformed in September, they cut a channel for the two boats, to get close to the shore of Melville Island, where they’d be less exposed to the crushing and grinding of moving ice.

William Parry The_Crews_of_H.M.S._Hecla_&_Griper_Cutting_Into_Winter_Harbour,_Sept._26th,_1819

Then they waited for the ice to melt. It was a long, long wait; ten months in all. It is interesting to read how Parry kept his crew from going nuts, especially during the three months of winter darkness. They produced plays and published a newspaper and, as it grew light, conducted expeditions along the coast of Melville Island on foot. Also, when some of the men showed signs of scurvy, Parry planted mustard and cress seeds in his cabin and fed the sprouts to the afflicted men. The first signs of thaw were in March, but the ice remained six feet thick.

In the year 2017 our first signs of thaw were much later, but sudden, and we swiftly developed an impressive melt-water pool on June 29:

Obuoy 14 0629C webcam

Of course, the media would generate sensationalism with such a picture, crowing about how the arctic is melting. Then they would get very quiet when the water drained down through a crack in the ice, as it did by July 8:

Obuoy 14 0708B webcam

The media would get even quieter when the camera then showed signs of fresh snow, as it did on July 12:

Obuoy 14 0712 webcam

And last but not least, there was a cold spell associated with the above view, and the melt-water pools were skimmed with ice, which needed to be melted away to make a little progress on July 13:

Obuoy 14 0713 webcam

What this makes me wonder about is the fortitude of Parry’s crew. They never got moving until August 1. Can you imagine how they felt when it snowed in July? (Or did it snow, back then, when it was supposedly colder?)

Our modern buoy is at roughly 103° west longitude. Parry was able to sail as far west as 113°46’W in the late summer of 1820. Then they noticed ice starting to reform. Apparently no one was eager to spend another winter up there, so they sailed lickity-split east the entire length of Parry Channel, escaping into Baffin Bay and arriving back in England in October.

It will be fun to watch this camera’s view. We are in a race with the year 1820, to see if we can get the ice moving before August 1. (One interesting thing is that, while the Navy satellite suggests the ice in Parry Channel is moving, the GPS attached to O-buoy 14 shows no movement. Once again we see the value of having an on-the-spot witness.)

I actually want the ice to move, so the view shifts around and we can see mountains in the distance.

Stay Tuned!

(Hat tip to Stewart Pid for always keeping me abreast of O-buoy 14 news.)

LOCAL VIEW –Efts and Other Red Things in the Rain–

A wet spring has given way to a wet summer in New England, but spring’s bone-chilling rain has become the warm stuff of summer, and is actually nice to walk about in, even for an old geezer like myself. And our Childcare focuses on the outdoors, so even if I’d like to goof about indoors I’ve trapped myself into going out. The children are rather fatalistic about the situation, and are unusually resigned to adults who don’t know enough to come in out of the rain. My chief trouble comes from identifying who gets which boots, but fortunately the kids help me out.

Eft 3 IMG_5160

The world we head out into is especially green this year. We tend to hike three miles in four hours before lunch, which may seem slow, but the children stop a lot, and also likely circle about to such a degree they cover six miles for my three (measured by the pedometer in my cell phone.)

In such lush greenery anything red tend to bring progress to a screaming halt, especially if it is edible.Eft 6 FullSizeRender

It always fascinates me how some children only nibble a few strawberries, others stuff themselves, and some are natural born gatherers, and likely would the ones a tribe would assign to drying berries or making jam for the coming winter.

Eft 4 FullSizeRender

(Notice the sun has popped out. This means I am carrying an armload of raincoats, until the rain starts up again.) The rain has made the wild berries much larger than normal. Here is an especially plush one, in a child’s small hand.

Eft 5 IMG_5117

When we compared the flavor of wild berries to the enormous, plum-sized berries in the children’s lunches, I was somewhat disappointed that the consensus was that commercial berries were sweeter. This made it all the more interesting that many children seem to prefer the tart, wild ones.

I impressed upon the kids what a big job it was for their great-great-grandmothers to make even a single jar of jam, and what a treat jam was, once the season for strawberries was over. In the days before refrigeration a thick syrup of sugar was a way of preserving things, just as pickling was. (Also, if the berries were not excessively heated the remaining vitamin C in the jam prevented scurvy, during winter months.)

The kids tend to be unimpressed when I attempt to impress this sort of trivia into their brains, and hurry ahead to the next discovery, which happened to be a surprisingly red mushroom.

Eft 7 IMG_5158

These are actually the ordinary brown shelf mushrooms that grow from the sides of dead and dying trees, and sometimes are strong enough to sit upon. They only are colorful when actively growing.Eft 8 IMG_5174

They were growing with surprising speed in the wet weather, and were hues even a geezer like myself had never noticed before (usually they are more purple when growing). One may have added enough weight to cause a rotted branch to fall to the ground.

Eft 9 IMG_5171

What was interesting was that the fungus continued to grow, but made an adjustment for the fact “down” was in a new direction. (Notice the slug feasting).

Eft 12 IMG_5172

The children were not all that interested, as one fellow forging ahead had discovered an eft.

Eft 1 IMG_5170

It is hard to keep the kids from picking efts up and bringing them home in their pockets, or poking them with sticks. I try to again impress upon them that the salamander’s skin can’t take much abuse.

Eft 2 FullSizeRender

Efts are the juvinile form of a Newt, which is an interesting critter for it has somehow figured out three different ways to breathe. When it is a tadpole it looks like a minnow, only its gills stick out like feathers, even as it starts to grow legs.

Eft 13 800px-Circ1258_plates_17b

Then it grows lungs, and becomes the red eft on wet forest floors. But then it returns to the water and, after a final lungfull of air, can quit breathing, as it turns green and becomes a common eastern newt.

Eft 11 1024px-Redspotted_newt

At this point the newts breathe through their skin, using a process called “diffusion” which requires neither lungs nor gills. I was going to add that this is also how frogs can take a deep breath in the fall and then sleep in the mud under water all winter, but the children had had enough of my non-stop scientific trivia, and, as they realized we had left the unexplored part of the forest and were on a path they recognized, went rushing ahead to what they call “The Trampoline Tree”.

Eft 10 IMG_5180

These two hemlocks nearly fell over in a storm, but were kept from falling by neighboring trees. Their roots are great fun to bounce upon.

I suppose I could lecture the kids about how bouncing might hurt the fragile roots, but the trees will not last long in their current state, and I think children get enough of a guilt trip laid on them by PBS. PBS is downright prudish about nature, as if nature will be hurt by being touched. I don’t see how a nature-lover can be a lover if he or she never touches. Isn’t being a lover a hands-on experience?

I love when rain’s warm-blooded, and the green,
Green leaves are platting in July’s soft heart;
When the gutters are all flooded, and the queen
Of midsummer night’s dreaming plays a part
In romanticizing logic. Our thought
Gets too severe when we rush, rush, rush
To ensure our garden’s harvest is a lot,
And we never pause to hear how songbirds gush
Despite falling rain, despite distant thunder
Thumping nearer, and nearer, and nearer.
Are we not made poor by the great blunder
Of wearing blinders when we could see clearer?
All winter we waited for this sweet summer day.
All too soon glory will go waltzing away.

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Ralph’s Peculiar Persistence– (Updated)

Polar Cell polar-cell-atmospherecirculation1

 

Above is a gloriously simplified view of how the atmosphere circulates air, distributing the warmth north from the equator and sending the cooled air south. The problem is that, like many wonderfully elegant ideas, it is more of an approximation than an actuality. The planet’s winds are never quite so neat and tidy, and on occasion the planet bucks the system, creating a sort of short circuit, wherein a jet-stream digs so far south and then rebounds so far north it is as if all three “cells” are combined into a single entity. When all three cells have troughs that match up and “phase” you might as well take the above diagram and crumple it up. A new elegant view is needed.

The above diagram is applicable to zonal flows, when the planet has achieved a temporary balance and the jet streams circles the planet in tidy circles, east to west. However balance is a tenuous reality on planets that can’t even be stable about the simplest things, and our particular planet can’t even make up its mind about whether it should be summer in the northern hemisphere or in the southern one. When you throw other wrenches into the works, such as a huge volcanic eruption, or the sun shifting dramatically into a “quiet” state,  then the balance starts to wobble. In a most amazing manner the planet regains its balance, but not without a bit of flailing, like a tightrope walker recovering from a gust of wind or a flock of birds landing on his balancing Pole.Tipping Point FullSizeRender

The period of recovery seems to be marked by the zonal flow of the jet streams becoming less east to west, and instead developing north to south to north loops, in which case the jet stream is called “meridional”. This sort of flow makes a shambles of the elegant idea of Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar Cells. To a certain extent you can warp the Hadley and Ferrel Cells, but the problems get mind-boggling once you involve the Polar Cell.

You see, according to the diagram above, the mild air should arrive at the Pole aloft, cool, and then sink, which would create high pressure pressing down on the Pole, and then you can have cold, heavy, dense air pressing cold-fronts south. But a meridional flow brings warm air north even at the surface, and creates rising air and low pressure right where air is theoretically sinking and making high pressure.

Obviously we need a brilliant mind to draw a new gloriously simplified diagram of how this new and interesting meridional pattern circulates air, bringing warmth north and distributing cold south. I’m probably not the guy. Apparently, in order to come up with an elegant idea, one must be in some way elegant, and I’m painfully aware I have shortcomings in this respect. (My wife won’t let me go out the door without checking me over to make sure my fly is zipped up, my nose is clean, and my shirt is right-side-out.)

Not that I am not full of suggestions, when I notice the high pressure is not sitting on the Pole as theory commands, and instead a low is plopped up there. Here’s an old post from two summers ago:

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/06/16/arctic-sea-ice-klyuchi-and-the-quietude/

Some may suggest that being full of ideas merely means “I’m full of it”, but I hope to point out things brighter bulbs will illuminate. Sometimes knowledgeable people are so entrapped by their knowledge that they are slow to see when an old elegant idea, such as the diagram that begins this post, simply doesn’t cut the mustard any more, as a new situation is arising which the old elegant idea doesn’t apply to. For this reason kings of old didn’t merely have wise scholars in the throne-room, but also a fool called the “court jester”.

I tend to be a bit droll when examining isobars and isotherms up at the Pole. Likely I’m not half as funny as I think I am, and more dour scientists would take a dim view of my irreverence, if they ever heard of it.  Over the years I’ve had a way of naming both polar lows and polar highs, until even I couldn’t keep track of them all. (“Did I get tired, or did I just get lazy?”) Eventually I decided to call  all lows “Ralph”, (for no particular reason), and all highs “Byoof” (short for the most common high pressure, the “Beaufort High”).

My general sense is that I have been witness to a change from a time when high pressure predominated (in old posts it was named “Igor” and not “Byoof”), to a time where Ralph has a habit of reincarnating in all sorts of fascinating forms.

This post is merely the continuation of earlier observations. As always, I will likely get drawn into wasting time arguing with Alarmists who think “the science is settled”, and I am committing some offence by reporting what is new. (Why? The very word “NEWS” apparently is short for “North-East-West-South”, and merely pertains to what you see looking around. Theoretically it should have nothing to do with “leaning left” or “leaning right”.)

What is new, to me at least, is that Ralph refuses to go away. He is making me look bad, because I thought he was brought about by the 2015 El Nino, and I forecast he would be less obvious this summer.

Indeed, when I last commented on the DMI maps back on June 9, it looked like Ralph had been knocked off the Pole and Byoof was going to dominate, with even a ridge of high pressure protruding into the North Atlantic.

72 hours later, even though the old Ralph was pushed south into a loop-de-loop in the Kara Sea, (like a well-mannered storm on the boundary between the Polar and Ferral Cells), a new Ralph was oozing north through Baffin Bay to the Pole north of Greenland. Though very weak, he divided the Atlantic part of Byoof from the Pacific.

 

Even though the Atlantic protrusion of Byoof was eroded away, it still looked like Byoof was going to shove the weak, new Ralph off the Pole. Indeed models suggested Byoof would dominate.

 

By June 13 the new Ralph was pushed south of Svalbard, as the old Ralph continued to mill about in the Kara Sea, and it looked like Byoof was dominant.

 

12 hours later it seemed Byoof was backing off the Pole, as the new Ralph, fading towards Norway, was nearly gone, but sucking up some Atlantic reinforcements. I was suppose to be attending to getting ready for a brief vacation with my wife, and not suppose to be fascinated by these maps.

 

36 hours later Byoof is looking weaker, and a reinforced new Ralph siutheast of Svalbard is reinforcing the old Ralph. The models are no longer showing Byoof as master of the Pole, and are starting to suggest the old and new Ralph’s will become a power on the Siberian side.

 

The next day I’m on vacation, but sneaking peaks as Byoof retreats and Ralph grows.

 

 

These maps are smaller because I saved them on my cell phone on my brief vacation. Ralph is back! What happened to Byoof?

 

By June 19 Byoof was starting to reestablish high pressure towards Canada. The Models suggested Ralph would fade and back off the Pole.  The maps that follow show that Ralph had a strange persistence, and Byoof a strange weakness. It makes me think the models have a bias that is built in, because they have built in preconceptions based upon the elegant idea I began this post with. Mother Nature is showing us that the elegant idea may work with a zonal pattern, but she has other ideas up her sleeve.

If I have time I’ll offer my analysis of the maps below, covering June 19- July 9. But tomorrow is Monday and my money from “Big Oil” has never materialized. Therefore I have to work a real job and may not get around to goofing off in the manner that most delights me. So, let me whip off a synopsis of what seemed wonderful as I watched:

Byoof keeps trying to push Ralph off the Pole, but Ralph has a stubborn way of drawing north reinforcements, so that, even when the center of Ralph is off the Pole, a lobe or trough of low pressure protrudes towards the Pole, resisting the claims of Byoof.

What does this all mean? Your guess is as good as mine, and likely better than those who focus primarily on models. The models,  one you look more than five days ahead, have missed Ralph being what Ralph continues to be.

Anyway, I share the maps so you can make up your own mind:

 

 

 

 

 

St this point we have arrived at the solstice, where the sun is at its highest at the Pole. The 24-hour sunshine is keeping the Mean Temperature above freezing, but Ralph’s clouds and perhaps some evaporative-cooling is keeping  temperatures from getting above normal. A flow of milder air in through Bering Strait is starting to develop as Byoof and Ralph mesh.

 

 

 

An interesting, weak low is north of Bering Strait on June 21. In rgw nwxt few days it seems to be pulled into Ralph, swinging around the north coast of Canada, as if it was a chip in Ralph’s in-flowing whirlpool.

 

 

 

 

 

By June 24 a second pulse of “inflow” is drawn north through Bering Strait and from east Siberia. Also a third “inflow” is wobbling around in the Kara Sea, loop-de-looping but still generally trending to circle northeast towards the Pole.

 

Rather than fading, as models had suggested, Ralph strengthed, apparently fed by the Pacific-side inflow.

 

At this point my attention switched from Pacific to Atlantic inflows. Pulse #1 continued to wobble in the Kara Sea as Pulse #2 approached Norway from the North Atlantic.

 

 

 

By June 27 Pulse #1 has wobbled inland and then up into the Laptev Sea, as Pulse #2 crosses Finland into Russia. Ralph is finally starting to fade. At this point the models were suggesting Byoof would get pumped and extend high pressure right over the Pole.

 

 

 

By June 29 Ralph has faded and Byoof was pumped, but Pulse #1 in the East Siberian Sea, and Pulse #2 in the Kara Sea, were keeping Byoof at bay.  I should also note that as Ralph faded there were some remarkably cold temperatures associated with his weakening. (You need to remember the “average” is above freezing, and the polar map can sometimes hold no below-freezing isotherms in July.)

 

 

 

The June 30 map shows Pulse 1 and 2 starting a Fujiwhara dance on the Asian side as Byoof is contained on the Pacific side, and the flow between the low and high pressure bringing mild air north through Bering Strait. Despite the mild inflow the temperature map shows more sub-freezing temperatures on the Greenland and West-Eurasian side than I can ever remember seeing at the height of the summer thaw.

 

The DMI temperature map showed a dip, and the next day it actually touched the blue line of freezing I looked back through the DMI maps and couldn’t find any other example of the polar mean temperature touching freezing so late (or so early.) Therefore I suppose it should be called “unprecedented.”DMI4 0629 meanT_2017

 

By July 1 Ralph seemed to have faded, and Byoof was attempting to build into the Atlantic, but a ghost of Ralph remained as a low oozed up through Baffin Bay and supported a trough over the Pole. In some ways that trough is the remnant of Pulse#1, still involved in a Fujiwhara dance with Pulse #2, which is down in Laptev Sea. A very weak Atlantic low off the coast of Norway surprised the models by creeping north and into the picture the following few days.

 

 

 

Despite all efforts of Byoof to extend into the Atlantic over the Pole, the ghost of Ralph remained as a trough on July 3, and new the little Norwegan low (Pulse #4) is eroding the high pressure in the North Atlantic.

 

I should mention at this point there was a surprising (not) lack of hoopla about how cold it had been over Greenland. A few years back a once-every-fifty-year event made headlines, as there was a brief thaw at the summit, but this year there was dead silence about once-every-fifty-year cold.

Greenland July Record Cold FullSizeRender

Greenland July Record Cold 2 FullSizeRender

(If it was not for the Realclimate Site I would have known nothing about this event.)

I myself was more focused on the uncanny ability of Ralph to regenerate over the Pole.  In the following few days both the weak Atlantic (Pulse #4) and weak Siberian (Pulse #3) lows nudged north and shook hands at the Pole, forming a new but definite “Ralph.” Meanwhile temperatures recovered to near normal.

 

 

 

 

 

By July 5 a new entity (Pulse #5) was appearing in the Laptev Sea, and started to do a Fujiwhara dance with the new, weak Ralph.

 

 

 

 

 

On July 7 an Atlantic entity (Pulse #6) is creeping into the dance from Barents Sea. Byoof is fading as Pulse #5 develops into a tight little gale.

 

 

 

As the Atlantic and Pacific pulses do their Fujiwhara dance high pressure finally starts to build, but not from the Canadian side, but rather the east Siberian side.

 

 

 

 

On July 10 we again saw Ralph smugly sitting on the Pole, defying the diagram we began this post with. Models were again saying Ralph would fade away and Byoof would at long last build over the Pole.

This morning the models are again changing their minds, and suggesting a new reinforcement of Ralph will move up from the Atlantic. (I suppose we should call it Pulse #7.)

The thaw is continuing, as it always does, but temperatures have yet to get above normal. I wonder if the persistent chill isn’t one factor that fuels Ralph.

DMI4 0710 meanT_2017

Hopefully I can update further this evening.

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Mann The Pumps–(with afterthought)

Michael Mann vs Tim Ball graphs

The above graphs explain, in a nutshell, the battle that I, along with many others, have faced since 1999, nearly two decades. The Medieval Warm Period, so obvious in the lower graph, was simply “erased” by the upper graph, created by Michael Mann.

I cannot describe the scorn and belittling I have faced, even from people near and dear to me, for questioning Mann’s graph, and the IPCC which made the “hockey stick graph” so notorious (by using it for the cover of its 2001 report). I didn’t even need to say Mann’s graph was incorrect. I only needed ask to see the data.

At first I felt very alone. The politically correct had a vast support-group, wherein people busily patted each other’s back and stroked each others precious egos, as my poor ego got punctured. But I simply couldn’t shut up. Not that I was always as brave as I could have been; there were times I was far too polite to people who were not the slightest bit polite in return.

Fortunately on certain occasions, (sometimes involving a few beers), my sense of humor would kick in. My best weapon seemed to be hilarity, and reducing others arguments to absurdity. Not that this convinced many, but it did get me in touch with a few others, who appreciated my way of questioning, and who told me, privately, that they too had questions. After 2005 I started to feel less alone. On the web a counter-support-group began to appear. (One of the biggest jokes was that Alarmists accused us of being “funded by Big Oil”).

We didn’t need funding, for our fuel was curiosity, and a thirst for Truth. And we didn’t merely question Alarmists, but each other. Consequently we came up with more answers than Alarmists, who simply accepted Mann’s graph and insisted it was wrong to question.

The Alarmists always seemed to appeal to authority, insisting that we mere mortals could not understand the “science”, and that if we didn’t swallow what we were told we were “deniers.” That was a rich vein that supplied me with hundreds of jokes, because it is so wrong, so against both principles of science and Free Speech.

Gradually I became aware that there were scientists who questioned the hockey stick graph as well. When their questions went unanswered they became increasingly outspoken. Then they were belittled as being “too old” and “backwards.” The late Bill Gray and Dr. Tim Ball refused to be quiet, despite subtle and not-so-subtle threats that they would see funding cut, and be “marginalized.”

These secret tactics on the part of certain Climate Scientists became obvious in 2009 when their emails were made public during “Climategate.” It was at this time Michael Mann was revealed as a particularly nasty person, and a bully. In the nearly eight years since he has made no effort to appear any nicer.

In those eight years there are certain questions that Mann has never answered, for, when asked to produce the data behind the hockey stick, he has refused. In court in the USA he managed to get this data called “personal papers”. Rather than open and honest, he appeared to be conducting a cover-up, and never seemed to lack the money needed to perpetuate his cover-up.

Those who demanded answers received threats. Eventually Dr. Tim Ball, weighing the evidence, stated Michael Mann belonged not at Penn State but in the State Pen. Mann countered with a lawsuit, and Tim Ball basically said, “Bring It On.” Though well past retirement age, Dr. Ball has proven to be a remarkable fighter.

The Canadian courts have proven to be different than the courts south of the border, and they demanded to see the data. Mann apparently couldn’t risk it, and by refusing to produce evidence has not only lost the case, but appears to be a scofflaw and faces paying court fees, and more.

It sure took a long time, but the sense of vindication is very sweet.

Read about the mess Mann is in here: (Not that the mysterious money-bags funding Mann won’t manage to bail Mann out, in some legalistic manner, but he will be even more stained than he already is, if such a rescue occurs.)

http://principia-scientific.org/breaking-fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann/

AFTERTHOUGHT:

I whipped off the above post in the morning twilight before rushing off to work, and have had all day to mull things over, when I’ve had time to think. The one thing that keeps occurring to me is what an almighty waste of time it is, having to deal with what increasingly looks like “bad science”.

As a small-time farmer, I do not approve of beating plowshares into swords,  because if we make swords we have less food to munch and more wounds to stitch. As a small-time scientist I do not approve of the same thing in science, because every hour of time spent battling “bad science” is an hour which might otherwise have been spent doing “good science.”

If Michael Mann had any dignity or decency he would simply (and proudly) make his data public, certain he would be vindicated as a man who honestly cares about Truth. The fact he has the audacity to claim that some sort of Right To Privacy makes his data “personal” and “protected” seems to suggest he does not believe it could withstand public scrutiny. The fact he is so amazingly funded, and has such a prestigious job and paycheck, seems to suggest there are others, behind the scenes, who also do not believe his data could withstand public scrutiny. In other words, they do not believe his efforts would be vindicated.  And what does that also suggest?  The opposite of vindication is to be condemned.

At this point I ask, “What’s so bad about being condemned?” If you stand by the Truth, condemnation is water off a duck’s back, for if you stand by the Truth you can be a mental midget, but you are standing by a towering Pal. If you stand by the Truth than Truth will stand by you.

The people who dared question Mann’s graph have faced being condemned for nearly two decades. Rather than simply answering the questions and producing the data, Alarmists have preferred to be nasty, and call Skeptics all sorts of insulting things. Mann seemed to be gifted, when it came to insulting others. You might even call such treatment “Mann-handling”.

Such rough treatment may not be fun, but again I ask, “What’s so bad about being condemned?” If you are standing by Truth, the manhandling is like that of a child with puny fists. It is laughable.

However for the bully, the mere fact you laugh at his threats is intolerable. On one hand he poses, shedding crocodile tears about how tender and sensitive he is, and on the other hand his crocodile smile attempts to sue your socks off.

It takes guts to stand up to a crocodile, and I admire Dr. Tim Ball greatly for having the guts. He has put his data forward for public scrutiny where Mann hid his, and moved forward from that honest gesture of everyday science to demonstrate, step by step, Mann’s unwillingness to be truthful and adhere to everyday science, until Mann’s skulking could not be mistaken, by any honest person, as the behavior of someone who wants to share the beauty of Truth with others. And, if Mann is not that sort of honorable person, (who wants to lovingly share), what does that make Mann?

It makes Mann a man who has something to hide.

It makes the people supporting Mann co-conspirators.

It is pity our world is infested with creatures that suck blood like leeches or ticks or mosquitoes. However they do exist. Even if we’d like to focus on higher things, there are times we need to deal with the low life.

Even if a farmer doesn’t beat his plowshares into swords, there comes a time to buy some sort of environmentally-friendly pesticide.

LOCAL VIEW –Liberty–

Liberty Bell LibertyBellPavillion02

Liberty is a cracked concept, and I think we Americans have been taken to school in many respects for the past fifty years, learning Freedom isn’t free, and liberty is no simple undertaking.

Not that I still don’t believe our Maker wants us free. It is just that we, in our ignorance, seem to make the most incredible mistakes, when it comes to mistaking chains as being freedom.

As a former smoker, I am well aware I was free to start smoking, but not so free when it came to quitting. When I tried to quit, I felt so awful that the only escape seemed to be to buy another pack, to be “free” of withdrawal symptoms. I chose my chains. And for years I was so blasted healthy that I got away with abusing my body, but the final ten years I smoked were more and more miserable, with a horrible cough and increasing weakness. Only when emphysema had me practically crawling, and cancer cost me a kidney, did I finally quit.

The experience was humbling, and allowed me to be less sneering towards my fellow mortals who demonstrate their addictions. Pity and mercy are good qualities, especially when dealing with arrogant fools (like I once was) who insist upon destructive behavior.

One particularly destructive behavior involves people’s desire for security.  People all but sell their souls for the “benefits” of a job. Even though they are never sick, they are so afraid of medical expenses that they cling to some job that stunts their spiritual growth and eventually makes them sick. They are so afraid of being poor when they get old that they cling to a job that kills them before they get old, for a promised “pension.” They think they have a “good” job, but live a shrunken life in a booth like a poor toll-taker on a turnpike.

I am quite serious about this. I have seen an amazing number of men endure decades of degradation in factories and government jobs for the “benefits”, and then drop dead surprisingly soon after they retire. It is as if, when they finally arrive at the day they “have it made”, it hits them that what they have made amounts to a big zero, and the revelation kills them.

I tend to be more forgiving of the need for security in the case of a woman with a babe in her arms. Her chest was made for feeding, not thumping with fists like a manly gorilla. She is more vulnerable, and has a greater need for security, and men are suppose to display guts and gain that security, by going without that security.

I know that some will call me a sexist for saying what I just said, but even the old Norman Rockwell painting “Freedom From Fear” shows the woman tucking the children in bed, as the man deals with the newspaper.

freedom-from-fear-1943

I know that critics of the above picture will point out the man isn’t fighting. They will assume he is some fat-cat capitalist, and sending sons off to die so he can sit smugly at home. What they fail to see is that he has done something right, to create Freedom From Fear for the women and children. What he has done-right is out of the picture, behind the scenes, and only suggested by the fact he is holding a newspaper. Also critics fail to see the alternative is ridiculous. I know it, for I lived it, back when I believed women were liberated by being promiscuous without having babies. This new “freedom from fear” was perhaps accidentally portrayed by Mad Magazine:

MAD-Mag-Freedom-From-Fear-Updated

Even if Mad Magazine had some utterly different aim, they used what Jung would have called an “archetype”.  The woman does the tucking, and the man deals with the newspaper. The woman is more tender, and the man is more tough. The woman is more concerned with immediate and personal security, and the man is more able to go without such things.

I have great respect for men who die young in battle. I even have respect for men who die in middle age working life-sapping jobs in factories or government bureaucracies. But when I was young I thought there was a greater battle to fight, and I have fought it.

I am anti-war, because war is stupid, and I am anti-life-sapping bureaucracies and factories, because they too are stupid. I am a firm believer in “If Only People Weren’t Stupid.”

The polite word for “Stupid” is “Ignorance.” Ignorance is something we all can confess to, because only God has the omniscience that knows everything. We, as mortals, can either side with attempting to end our ignorance, or side with furthering it. If you have done your best to side with the former, you side with “good”, and if you side with the latter, then, sad to say, you are “evil.”

Men who suffer tedious work to support their homes are, up to a point, like soldiers suffering wounds to save their homelands. They are heroes. But past a certain point they should not go. Past a certain point they are being loyal to a Hitler, and damning their wife and children to the social destruction eventually earned by dictators. They should have told their boss, “Take this job and shove it”, but lacked guts. They were timid and cowardly, and subservient to ignorance, thinking some medical insurance or pension mattered more than freedom from ignorance. They were not free from fear, and when fear controlled them they became like addicts.

I was not prone to this particular addiction, because, after I had been loyal and faithful to a boss up to a certain point, and excused his sins as “shortcomings” up to a certain point, I drew the line. It did not seem to be a matter of my brains as much as it was my stomach. I had guts, so I got fired. This is the price of Liberty: Good-bye health insurance, good-bye sick-pay, good-bye vacation-pay, good-bye pension. You are reduced to the status of a hobo. But you haven’t sold your soul and, praise great God almighty, you are Free!

There is some suffering involved in being a hobo, but in my humble opinion it sure beats the suffering of the alternative. I tried out the alternatives, and even worked a union job for an amazing two years. So I talk of the alternatives with a little bit of experience, when I say slavery stinks, when compared to Liberty.

At times it can be strange, when I confess to people I was a hobo until age 37. When I describe getting fired from job after job, rich people get green with envy. Many never dared, because they were addicted to money. At times, when I was younger, talking of my life as a bum became downright awkward, because rich men’s wives looked at me lustfully, (I suppose because a hobo sometimes is a man, and a rich man sometimes is not).

In other words, Liberty has little to do with money. To some this is obvious, but to others this is like saying up is down, because they are addicted to ignorance. In fact they are the ones saying down is up. And history shows that these down-is-up people do get their comeuppance.

America (so far, at least) has always tended to side with Liberty, and not down-is-up people. Not that America isn’t misled by its down-is-up minorities, (Mad Avenue bankers  addicted to money, Washington politicians addicted to power, Hollywood imbeciles addicted to fame), but so far these attempts to capsize Liberty have always been righted by the sanity of tiny, little people.

When you study history this power-of-the-small becomes so apparent that, for me at least, I see the fingerprints of the Almighty. The laws of reaping-what-you-sow jump out at me, even in the exact same historical events where the down-is-up people claim to see proof that injustice pays. They have eyes but cannot see, yet deem themselves wise. They think they will get away with stealing Indian’s land, but later look up to see Sherman come marching through Georgia.  They think they can get rich clipper-shipping slaves and selling opium, but then their sons die marching through Georgia and their great-grandchildren die of heroin overdoses. The kick-back of Karma revisits sins on succeeding generations with a complex and inescapable perfection.

This is not to say down-is-up people can’t be gifted, brilliant organizers and administrators, but they can’t beat God. If they fail to see their gifts are given by God, and fail to be humble about being gifted, all the might in the world can be defeated by a flea, and a great army be stopped by a snowflake. Sennacherib marched 185,000 to Jerusalem, and his soldiers all died in in their sleep at its gates. Napoleon marched a huge Army into Russia, and few returned from the snowflakes alive.

The down-is-uppers tend to feel they are sharp as axes, and can cut others down, but what they fail to see is that no ax cuts by itself. The Creator created the ax, and can cast it aside. If our pride over the gifts we are given becomes that of a megalomaniac, rather than doing the cutting we are cut down. Of course, the powerful laugh at this concept, and say, “How can a tree cut down an ax?”  They never like learning the answer.

The time of Napoleon is fascinating, because he was a megalomaniac who began as a flea who the big-shots were blithely ignorant of, yet was given gifts that allowed him to become an ax that shook the world, before falling as the mighty all fall, into the afterglow of glory. As he disrupted the calm and disturbed the peace he forced friends and foes alike to dare to be great. Men had to leave the cozy security of home, leave wives and children,  and be men.

I like this time in American history because back then we were a flea, compared to European powers, and when the War of 1812 eventually erupted we were like a flea taking on an elephant. Not counting the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain, we had a Navy of some 8 ships, and were taking on Britain’s 600. President Madison does not come across as exactly smart, (but, after all, he was a democrat).

However in order to find crews for its 600 ships England, (and to a lesser degree France), had to bully unwilling men onto their ships, and this had been going on for some ten years before the USA declared war. The impressing of American sailors ruffled American feathers, for, while the USA might have only had a 8 ship Navy, it had developed the second largest fleet of Merchantmen in the world, and these ships were not crewed by men bullied aboard by press gangs, but by men who dared put personal security aside, for their wife and children, and risked death on the bounding main, calling it liberty and relishing it. They wanted no part of Europe’s war, but Europe wanted American goods to supply their troops, and both sides wanted to prevent America from supplying the other side. Jefferson faced an undeclared war with France, (which was angry we didn’t side with them, after they had sided with us in our Revolution.) Jefferson also faced Arab states in North Africa who demanded we pay tribute. And the English were increasingly demanding as well.

Of course it was not Jefferson, and later Madison, who was actually out on the ocean facing these troubles. Besides courage, strength and wisdom, life as a merchantman demanded diplomatic skill, and often involved having to smile as the English or French absconded with your cargo, and sometimes your ship.  The amazing thing is that the sailors kept sailing. I suppose the profits were better than the profits from farming, and there was also the not inconsiderable fact that sailing is just plain wonderful fun, for many men.

In any case, the United States may have had a small Navy, but it had a wealth of excellent sailors who were out on the sea because they wanted to be there, as opposed to the English crews who sometimes had been dragged on board their boats kicking and screaming, and would desert at the first opportunity, though doing so meant they risked being hung.

What then happened, once war was declared, was that the American merchantmen turned into “privateers”. They were suppose to get an official slip of paper from the American government, but not everyone bothered. I think it is for this reason there are hugely varying estimates on how many privateers sailed against the English. Officially there were some 500 “licenced” ships, but I have read estimates there were well over a thousand privateers in actual fact. (If you had a licence you were suppose to report your booty, when you got home, at the custom house and pay a tax. Of course this was not always done, by sailors who knew a great deal about smuggling, and about getting around red tape. In fact, in New England, which was most dependent on merchantmen, and where the war was very unpopular, (called “Mr. Madison’s War”), one way around the British blockade was to meet with the blockaders. The British blockade was actually depriving Britain itself of supplies that were needed. Therefore some merchantmen arranged to be “captured”, and then, after goods were off-loaded and cash changed hands, they conveniently “escaped”. So you see, there is a way around red tape, if you look for it.)

When a privateer set sail it had a over-sized crew, for every time it captured an English ship some of its crew had to board the captured ship and sail it home. Some ships would sail off with over a hundred men and return home crewed by fifteen. Some of the ships they captured were recaptured by the British, but many captured ships sailed back into American ports loaded with needed supplies, and as they arrived they told a thrilling tale of the parent ship’s exploits.

Some of the tales are wonderful.  The Paul Jones set sail from New York in 1812 with 120 men aboard, but only 3 cannons. She had holes cut in the side for 17.  The captain had logs painted black to look like cannons and sailed up to the British merchant ship Hassan, which carried 14 guns, but had a crew of only 20. The Paul Jones sent the extra crew swarming up into the rigging to look like marines.   The captain of the Hassan was so fooled by the bluff that he surrendered without firing a shot. In this manner the Paul Jones not only gained a “prize ship”, but 14 cannons, and the captain was able to fill the Paul Jones’ gun mounts with actual guns.

Captain William Nichols, aboard the Decauter,  eluded the English frigate Guerriere, but was unable to elude a faster frigate despite throwing his cannons overboard to go faster. To everyone’s relief the faster frigate was the American ship Constitution, and Captain Nichols was then able to direct the Constitution where to find (and defeat) the Guerriere. However as the Constitution sailed out of sight the Decauter’s crew promptly mutinied, insisting they should head home because they had only two cannon left to fight with. After subduing the mutiny by bopping the ringleader over the head, Captain Nichols proceeded to get cannons by capturing seven ships in five days, and headed home with hardly any crew left aboard his own ship, after capturing a total of ten.

The official tally, kept by Lloyds of London, was 1175 British ships captured, of which 373 were captured back by the British Navy before getting back to the United States. The actual numbers were likely higher, as insurance rates got so high as the war went on some ships may have sailed without insurance. Though the British blockade deeply hurt American ports,  the English were forced to resort to sailing in convoys. They were able to keep troops supplied (except in the Great Lakes),  but the American privateers then sailed across to England, even into the mouth of the Thames, and made the English fishermen fear to go out and fish, resulting in a shortage of that staple to the English diet in English markets. Lastly, there is a lot we don’t know. Of the privateers that officially reported their existence to the American government, 317 never reported capturing any ship. Hmm. Makes you wonder what they were doing with themselves, sailing around out there all that time.

The thing that fascinates me was this was a completely disorganized effort. It was not military in nature, and involved no planning board writing up logistics. It was just a bunch of individual captains and their crews, going every which way without any particular order, and becoming a total thorn in the side of the British fleet.  It was not what one would expect, looking at the original of odds of 8 American ships against 600. To me it demonstrates what individuality can accomplish, when set against a vast and seemingly all-powerful organization. Watch out for the flea.

Meanwhile the Americans in charge (being democrats) were making a shambles of things. A flea smaller than even the United States was Upper Canada, but the political appointments in charge of the war made such a mess of things that little Canada initially whupped our butts.  Further south British troops marched into the White House and ate Madison’s dinner, before burning the place down.  (Baltimore was saved only because a political appointment was booted out, and replaced by a Revolutionary War veteran who knew his ass from his elbow.)

Another small flea that made a difference consisted of some 3000 black slaves, who used the war as a chance to make a dash for freedom. In many cases the men joined the British army and fought against their former masters. (After the war many were settled in Canada, while others settled with their families as farmers on the south coast of Trinidad, where they live to this day as the “Merikins”.) (So perhaps democrats do get credit for freeing some slaves….with the law of unintended consequences kicking in.)

It is odd how liberty works.

In the end the United States did quite well to escape that war with the event called “a draw”. (The real losers were the Indians….but that’s another story).

Happy Independence Day!

Liberty has its price. At dawn I pay
The toll and buckle my worn leather belt
And plod out into the duty of new day
And remember no dreams, nor how I felt
When young, but a cloud then catches my eye.

It’s just a wisp of white in the west;
Just a mare’s tail, a curl of cirrus in the sky,
But disturbs me from my dormancy’s rest.

Toil has its peace, a dulling mindlessness,
But the cloud’s a disturbing reminder
That Liberty’s more than mess after mess.
It’s aim is higher, sweeter, kinder.

Liberty’s price is: Blood waters it’s root,
But Liberty’s hope is a fine future fruit.

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Barrow Breakout–

Thaw and tides detached the ice from the shore by June 21, and some movement was seen by July 23. (Strong west winds blew the ladder across the roof and into the picture around the 22nd.)Barrow 20170623 05_27_09_508_ABCam_20170623_132400

The first real shifting of the ice was on June 24. A lot pilled up on the sandbar at the point to upper right, and remained grounded even when winds shifted  around to the east and blew the thinner ice away. Below is July 1 picture, with light onshore winds and temperature 33°F. (Someone removed one ladder but not the other.)

Barrow 20170701 09_17_08_243_ABCam_20170628_171400

(The ten day Barrow time-laps-animation will show the break-up a few more days, but updating will gradually vanish the view of it.)

Adventurers can now sail to Barrow from the west, but further east the way remains blocked. (Hudson Bay is also losing ice swiftly now, but ice to southwest remains thick).

CIS 20170701 CMMBCTCA

The Pacific side of the Pole has seen south winds and the melt is ahead of schedule, while the Atlantic side has seen north winds and the melt is delayed.

As soon as the ice is gone air temperatures are able to rise more. It can be seen in the temperature map below. There is a difference between where ice is up against Alaska’s shore and where it is not.

Barrow cmc_t2m_arctic_2

 

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Ralph’s Chill–

After a week of dominating the Pole, Ralph is starting to fade away towards Siberia, as Byoof finally starts to rebuild over the Beaufort Sea. Models suggest we are likely to see the low pressure on the Siberian side, with Byoof building on the Canadian side, which should suck some mild air north through Bering Strait. However a Pacific-to-Atlantic cross-polar-flow may be blocked by an extension of Byoof across the north Atlantic. This block will be an interesting complication, but is off in the fog of the future. Uncertainty is involved.

We can be a little less uncertain regarding the present. Of course, there are various glitches involved in our instrumentalizations, but it does seem Ralph cooled the air at the Pole.

Ralph C1 cmc_t2m_arctic_2

You may note that over Greenland there are temperatures below zero (-17°C), but that is because Greenland’s icecap is well over 10,000 feet up. (Icecap is 12,119 feet high and rising, at last report, at the center, but lowering at the edges.) In fact temperatures rarely get above freezing at that altitude, so far north, and there was quite a fuss a few years back when a brief thaw barely softened the icecap’s snow. The media made it sound like the entire icecap was melting, when in fact the softened snow refroze, and formed a crust. Study of the yearly layers of snow beneath suggest such thaws occur roughly once every fifty years, at that high altitude and high latitude.

The situation is entirely different when you drop down 10,000 feet to sea-level. There thaw is the norm, and freezes are the rarity. Here too the media has done a very bad job of stating what the norm of an arctic summer is. They tend to act as if a thaw is something to be alarmed about. Nope. It is quite normal.

In fact, though Ralph did manage to create some areas of sub-freezing temperatures, they were outweighed by the areas above freezing, and the mean of the entire area north of 80° north latitude never quite dipped below freezing.

DMI4 0629 meanT_2017

Ralph’s main fascination, to me at least, is that he suggests a change in patterns we are used to, and not that he can “stop” the thaw. There is always a thaw. Here is the DMI graph from 1958 (the earliest we have.)

DMI4 meanT_1958

This 1958 graph is actually warmer than anything we have seen in recent summers, for the red line of actual temperatures gets above the green line of “average”. Recent summers have seen the red line below normal. But never, in the height of summer, does the red line sink below the blue line which represents freezing. There is always a thaw.

I actually found this surprising, when I first began to look at the history of the arctic. I thought for sure we could find at least one summer where it was especially cold, and there was no thaw, but I have yet to see a record of such a summer. I am starting to think it may have thawed during the summer even back during the height of the last ice age. The sun is simply too powerful to ignore, when it shines 24 hours a day, day after day after day.

Once you accept the thaw as a yearly event it is hard to get all bent out of shape by signs of melting sea-ice. In fact I feel like a person “in the know”, who can chuckle at the rubes who get excited by signs of slush. But the truth of the matter is that I was once just such a rube.

Now that I’m wiser my appreciation of men who crossed the sea-ice during the summer, back before rescue was possible with helicopters sent from massive icebreakers, has greatly increased. The more comfortable air temperatures get, the more treacherous the ice gets.  The scientists Marc Cornelissen and Philip de Roo were lost in 2015 because the air temperatures were so warm they apparently were skiing in their long underware, and fell through thin ice into water that can kill you in five minutes.

Back in the days of the Cold War, to avoid the thinner and more treacherous sea-ice, both Americans and Russians used to seek out the thicker bergs that calved off the north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island. These flat bergs were over 100 feet thick, but, because 9/10 of an iceberg is under water, they hardly stuck up at all above the other ice, and were hard to locate. Once discovered they were invaluable, because airplanes could be landed on them, and bases built upon them, and the Americans and Russians could busily spy on each other while pretending to only be interested in scientific experiments. However, at the height of summer, even these high points on the arctic seascape could be afflicted by the problems of slush. I suppose that, because they were so flat, the water didn’t run off to the lower ice ten feet below these “highlands”. In any case, while reading about life on T-3 (also called “Fletcher’s Ice Island”) I recall raising an eyebrow when one one man casually mentioned he wore hip waders, to get through the slush.

Thaw is the norm in the north.  We are lucky to have a camera, O-buoy 14, which drifted into Parry Channel last autumn.

Parry Channel Map_indicating_Parry_Channel

Parry Channel has great significance in Climate Science, because it is in the shape of a hockey stick, and we all know how hockey sticks cause climate scientists to tingle and spout adithering verbosity.  However the channel is annoying to those who want to say current melting is “unprecedented”, for it is named after William Parry, who back in 1819 sailed a wooden, non-motorized ship along the entire “shaft” and into the “blade” of the above hockey stick, and, after spending a winter stuck in the ice, sailed back east the following summer. In comparison, when the “Northabout” sailed the Northwest Passage last summer, it sneaked through a southern route and never got as far north as Parry Channel.

It is amazing to consider the guts of the fellows who sailed the arctic back then, for they seemed to always get stuck and spend winters in the ice. The next spring they had to wait and wait and wait for the ice to melt. O-buoy 14 is giving us a glimpse of what they saw, as the sun shone all day, day after day. The three pictures below are from June 23, 25, and 29, and show us softening snow, slush (with polar bear tracks), and melt-water pools.

Obuoy 14 0623 webcam

Obuoy 14 0625 webcam

Obuoy 14 0629C webcam

Now, before you get too excited by melt-water pools, please remember the lesson we were taught by “Lake North Pole” back in 2013. A melt-water pool does not mean the ice is breaking up; it can drain away in 48 hours, and the ice will remain.  (Left July 26; right July 28.)

 

 

 

Hopefully we will see the ice break up. The long-ago sailors hoped to see the same thing. The danger was, it didn’t always happen. The most tragic case involved the Franklin Expedition of 1845-1846. The waters that had been more open in the time of Parry were less open, and likely the expedition’s provisions were also tainted by lead-poisoning. It was crucial they escape after the first winter, but seemingly the ice didn’t melt enough the second summer, though the survivors apparently attempted to escape to the south.

It seems to me that the ships of that time, though better equipped than Parry’s, were to some degree tricked by dreaded “Climate Change”. In the period 1816-1817 there were reports of whalers sailing up through Fram Strait along the east coast of Greenland, and over the top, and down through Nares Strait and into Baffin Bay on the west coast of Greenland. This was no longer possible in 1845, and Parry’s route was increasingly difficult. The expedition of HMS Investigator, entering the same area Parry explored but from the west, became trapped in the ice in 1850, and waited through two winters on increasingly shrunken rations, hoping the ice would melt, but it didn’t. They faced the same doom as Franklin’s crew.

In 1853 an expedition was sent to look for both Franklin’s ships and HSM Investigator. Four of five ships were trapped in the ice and abandoned. Three of the abandoned ships were lost. The fourth ship was abandoned but not lost, and makes for a very cool story. This ship was HSM Resolute.

The Resolute managed to copy Parry’s route, entering Parry Channel from the east in 1852, and wintering to the west and north of where O-buoy 14 now sits, not far from where Parry wintered, but the next summer they couldn’t escape as Parry escaped, though they did find and rescue the crew of HSM Investigator. Then the entire bunch was trapped by the September refreeze of 1853, and the captain prepared to endure another winter, which they successfully did. However as the sun rose the following spring they received orders to abandon their ship, and travel over the ice to other ships. Under protest, the captain obeyed, taking great care to prepare the ship before he left. They sailed back to England in 1854.

Then, unmanned, the  Resolute traveled east through Parry Channel during the summers of 1854 and 1855, and was boarded by American whalers up at the top of Baffin Bay in September, 1855. Because we Americans are such gosh-darn nice people, we gave the ship back to the English, and it was back in England in 1856.

Ralph C2 300px-HMS_Resolute_cropped

Apparently America’s sweetness and light didn’t impress the British much, for they put textile mills and cotton before freedom for slaves, and supported the wrong side during our Civil War. But later, after the relatively-good guys won our Civil War, the British got over it. When the Resolute was decommissioned in 1876 they took some of the less rotted timbers and made a desk, which was given to our President, Rutherford Hayes, in 1880.

Consequently no American president could sit at such a desk, in his right mind, and say the melt of arctic sea-ice was “unprecedented”, unless they were amazingly ignorant, and were created as a sort of divine pay-back to England, for abolishing slavery throughout their empire in 1833, but supporting America’s slave-states in 1861. (Karma’s pay-backs can be bizarre.) (Such an impossible person would send back to Britain, if not the actual desk, a bronze bust of Winston Churchill given to the USA by the English. Could any man sit at a desk made of timbers of the Resolute and be so crass?)

Ralph C3 Barack_Obama_sitting_at_the_Resolute_desk_2009.jpg

I suppose this may show I just don’t understand politics. Politicians like to think they are ahead of the facts, but to me it seems they are always behind. Just as the British Navy was losing ships left and right, because they were basing their intelligence on an outdated idea that suggested sea-ice in 1845 was like it was in Parry’s time, the intelligence of American leaders who misled and mislead the American voters was and is sadly outdated. However I don’t think the English admiralty promoted arctic exploration knowing their intelligence was wrong. Some American leaders are well aware Global Warming is based on faulty intelligence.

It takes an extraordinary American buffoon to think it is intelligent, to be unintelligent on purpose.

The simple fact of the matter is that the current thaw in the arctic is neither greater nor less than thaws of the historical past, and anyone who says otherwise either hasn’t researched the past, or thinks it is intelligent to be unintelligent.

Parry Channel is the proof.

*******

If I have time I’ll stick the DMI maps of Ralph’s recent rise and current fall, as a footnote and update to this post.