LOCAL VIEW —Warm Sweeper—

Today the wind was kindly, from the southwest and, if not warm, not cold. Temperatures were a little over 50, (+11 Celsius) and the snow wilted away. I sat in the sun and basked, feeling more thankful than I felt on Thanksgiving.

One thing I don’t fully understand is why the warm fronts have such trouble pushing north into New England, while other times they rush past and all the way up to Labrador. In theory I know it has to do with the upper air pattern, and whether the troughs ripple around the planet or lock in place and stand still, but that is just theory.  Reality is down to earth, and, because I know how cold air can refuse to budge week after week, it seems wonderful when it does budge.

Though this is a break in the cold weather, all the ups and downs in temperature tend to give everyone colds. I’ve got one, and it felt good to relax in the sun today.  My body feels the exercise I’ve gotten recently, shoveling snow and splitting firewood, and though I’m sure it is getting me in shape the transitional shape I’m in sad shape, and enjoy a good slouch.

We’ve gone from having a foot of snow to having about two inches. The snow-cover maps show the snow again retreating north. The maps below are from five days ago (top) and today (bottom).

Snowcover 20141201B ims2014331_usa Snowcover 20141201A ims2014335_usa

 

The maps also give an idea how swiftly Hudson Bay is freezing over. It is ahead of schedule. Once it is iced over our north winds get colder.

The weather map shows the storm that passed far to our west has traveled over southern Hudson Bay and is now stalling way up in the right corner off the north coast of Labrador.  The warm front whisked through  without even a sprinkle, though it did make some rain when it caught up to the cold air north of Maine. The following cold front is catching up to the mild air’s moisture, and the radar shows a bit of snow in the middle of the USA.

20141201 satsfc 20141201 rad_nat_640x480

Although this is the seventh storm, it is hard to call it storm #7 when we haven’t gotten anything but mild breezes and sunshine.  Perhaps I’ll skip numbering it, unless a secondary on the front dusts us with some snow.

 

LOCAL VIEW —DRATTED NORLUN WAVE BRINGS MORE SNOW—

I creaked out of bed before dawn to peer out the front door towards the streetlight, and saw a whirl of snow. Another inch had fallen, due what is called a “Norlun Wave.”

20141128 satsfc 20141128 rad_ne_640x480_11

For a better explanation than I can give, of Norlun Waves, Matt Noyes has produced some decent articles at his site. Here is one, with links in it to other articles he’s penned, plus links to papers about Norlun Waves by others.

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html

If you have leisure you can spend a whole morning reading interesting stuff and mentally dabbling with the intricate wonder of the atmosphere, but I still have to clean up the mess from the last storm, so rather than be scientific I’ll grouch and grumble.

After many storms all the moisture is swept out to sea by roaring northwest winds that bring south a cold front and dry air.  Other storms have much less wind, and ripple away to the north leaving moisture and mild air behind.  It is the mild moisture that sets up the Norlun Trough.

As this mild air gets squeezed by rising pressures behind the storm the effected area doesn’t see pressures rise, as you would think, but rather pressures fall because the squeezed air rises.(I am so disgusted by the prospect of more snow-blowing and shoveling that I will use the most disgusting symbol I can think of:)  The air is squeezed like a pimple, and the building pressure shoots up like pus, reducing pressure at the surface. The uplift is increased by the latent heat released by water vapor condensing and freezing, and the pus comes raining back down as disgusting snow-flakes on my driveway. At this point, if my mood is better, I write lovely poems about the white fluff outside, trying to emulate the appreciation the Japanese have of snow and cherry blossoms, but I am so achy from yesterday’s work I only scowl. If I flower at all I am a flowering crab.

If I had the time to ponder the nuances of the maps, I’d probably study the way the uplift of a Norlun Trough extends west to the uplift created by the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes.  There might be an interesting linkage between the two events. Even if there isn’t, I could say there was, and stir up a lively discussion at some obscure site where weather geeks gather, and in the process of being told how wrong I was I might learn a thing or two. That seems such a fine way to fritter away the hours, when I am faced with the heavy, brown crud blocking the entrance to the Childcare.

I have noticed that many meteorologists have a poetic streak. I suppose it is an occupational hazard that comes from looking at clouds too much. However I have no time for poetry or for meteorology. It is souring my mood, and I look a little like Rodney Dangerfield in my mirror. “I get no respect.” Rather than throwing money at me to write poetry, people want me to hack away at frozen slush. All  I can say is, they’ll be sorry when I’m dead.

I noticed that some of the other fellows were muttering similar thoughts, during Thanksgiving Dinner.  Usually the guys allow the women to do most of the bustling, perhaps carrying a pie in from a car or carving a turkey, but for the most part feasting and then sitting about bloated, talking about hunting escapades or the nuances of football, but yesterday there was a more tired-looking group slouched in easy chairs, shaking their heads about the poor excuse for snow they’d had to deal with.

Usually the first foot of snow is cleaned up with precision, and the snowbanks have sharp corners and are built with geometric exactness. It is the exact opposite of April snow, which is going to melt so soon it is sloppily shoved aside and left to wilt in the high sunshine. On this side of winter everyone knows the snowbanks may last five more months, so care is taken to get off to a good start.

Yesterday was a lousy start.  Even though I had the Childcare drive clean at six o’clock on Wednesday night, six more inches had fallen by Thursday morning, and the ground is still so warm that the bottom four inches slumped down to a substance somewhere between very heavy snow and slush.  Then the town plows, which (due to budget problems) hadn’t really even started to plow until morning, shoved this heavy stuff from the roads into the entrances of every driveway in town, mingling it with sand and bits of tar torn from the road’s deteriorating surface, (un-repaired due to budget problems.)

When younger I laughed at old geezers who used snow-blowers, and often had my drive finished with a shovel while they were still cursing at their machines and trying to get  them started. Those days are gone, and I’ve now converted to the geezer world-view. However the snow-blowers struggled even with the uncompressed snow on the drives, and the piles at the end of the drives strangled them. The chutes plugged up with the snow, and when it did come out of the chutes it was a sort of brown soup that described a pathetic arc and landed three feet away, still in the driveway.  Even though it is illegal, most just shifted the snow back out onto the roads, which were brazenly bare and wet and snow-free.

My oldest son said he even had trouble with his plow.  If he tried to plow straight ahead his truck would slow to a stop with all four tires spinning, so he had to plow a sort of zig-zag pattern up driveways, shifting snow first to the right side, and then to the left. (I would have had him plow the Childcare, but have learned through bitter experience that plowing builds huge mountains in all the wrong places, making it nearly impossible to clear snow in following storms, and also effecting the septic system’s leach field.)

In any case, it looks like we are off to  a bad start, this winter. I am going to have to revert to primitive shoveling, and to use shovels meant for dirt, as the stuff blocking the Childcare entrance laughs at plastic snow shovels. Fortunately I have two younger sons in their early twenties to help me, though I must confess they seem less than pleased by the prospect. To them Thanksgiving means leisure.

I have a strong feeling leisure is going to be in short supply, before we see the last of this winter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

LOCAL VIEW —THANKSGIVING STORM APPROACHES— updated with afterward

This is a quick insomnia report, to show maps of the storm #5’s development, and also to express amazement that anyone would have the sheer audacity to forecast snow, when it only got down to 39 last night (as of 4:00 AM) and is still 46 in Boston.  In fact it is only recently that the radar started to show snow at the northwest edge of the rain.

20141126A rad_nat_640x480_05 20141126B rad_nat_640x480_11

If I was a suspicious fellow, I might suspect the fellows over at the weather bureau were pulling our legs.  After all, it likely gets boring looking at isobars all the time. Maybe they decided to cause general panic and hysteria throughout the east coast just for the fun of it, and now are sniggering up their sleeves.  It wouldn’t be the first time.

20141126A satsfc (click maps to enlarge)

I’ll update later, after I’m done hysterically panicking.

UPDATE–8:00 AM EST

Storm is deepening over South Carolina. Watch to see if the following second low over Florida persists. A strung-out storm is weaker.

Temperature here has dropped 4 degrees to 36 in 4 hours. Alto stratus with some high scud indicating falling rain, from west. Radar shows rain here, but it isn’t reaching the ground. Pressure in Manchester 30.19 Hg and falling. In Jaffrey 30.16 Hg.

20141126C satsfc 20141126C rad_ne_640x480

UPDATE  —2:00 PM—  Storm is here.

The first flakes started falling at 8:30 AM. There was no rain.  I went and picked some wild cranberries with one of the older boys.  The bright berries contrasted nicely with the purple-green foliage and the white snow.  Then we dug the final row of potatoes, plus some scattered onions and carrots that remained, from the frozen and then re-thawed soil, which was very muddy. I wore yellow raingear which soon was covered with briwn slush.

In the yard a boy built a snowman as the snow swiftly mounted up to over two inches. The snowman was a bit muddy as well. Parents came early to pick up their kids. Now only a single child remains.

20141126D satsfc20141126D rad_ne_640x480

Temperatures down to 34 Manchester, 32 Jaffrey.  Pressures still fairly high, at 30.11 Manchester and 30.07 Jaffrey.

UPDATE  —7:00 PM—in for keeps—   (not posted until 9:00 AM)

Temperatures down to 32 at Manchester and 30 at Jaffrey.  Can’t check pressures, as we have just lost our internet connection. but at 6:00 Manchester was down to 29.89 and Jaffrey was down to 29.87.

I’ve saved the maps but can’t access them at the moment. Nor can I post this, so why am I writing?  Life is such a mystery at times!

At least we still have power, though the lights keep blinking. The snow is so sticky that all the electrical wires look as thick as a man’s thigh, like long white noodles.

My last outdoor job was to snow-blow the Childcare drive so the last,  lone child and single member of the staff could leave. We had around five inches then, at 5:00, and have aound seven now, at 7:00.  The drive home was a creeping crawl. Coming down the steep hill into town I saw a policeman pushing a car with spinning tires up the hill, well away from his cruiser and its flashing blue lights.  You don’t see that every day.

Now I’m home and there are very few things that could pry me from my chair and out the door again.

20141126E satsfc 20141126E rad_ec_640x480

FINAL UPDATE  —AFTERWARDS—

We received a total of a foot, tapering off to light snow by midnight. Winds remained fairly light and the pressure never got below 29.85. Temperatures remained mild, and this morning it is at 34 in Manchester to our east and 28 in Jaffrey to our west. The snow was very sticky, and all the trees are burdened and stooped, especially the evergreens, which barely show any green at all, and resemble big blobs of white. Everwhites, perhaps, or that is what they will be until the wind picks up. 

I’ve been out shoveling this morning, to prove to my sons that the old man is tougher than he appears, and to make them feel guilty for sleeping late.  The snow was fairly light until I got to the pile the plow made by the road. Then I spent a lot of time leaning on my shovel, except for a brief time shoveling vigorously because a car was passing, and I wanted to keep my reputation.  I used to have the reputation of being “hale”,  but now I think I’m called “spry.”  I’m not sure I like the demotion.

I’m not sure when we got our internet connection back. One of my sons rebooted the computer, and there it was.  I went to look at my favorite blogs, and at Weatherbell saw Joseph D’Aleo claim places had two feet of snow. We usually get the most, because we face the east in these hills, and I doubted very much that Flatlanders down in the cities could get two feet, when we only got a fluffy foot that settled to ten inches by morning.  I thought this might be one of those rare occasions where I’m right and Mr. D’Aleo is wrong, but then I’ll be darned if he didn’t go and offer photographic proof:

TWO_FEET

In Canada that would be “61 cm of snow fell this morning,” and the joke would make no sense. Nor do we make sense for celebrating Thanksgiving five weeks too late.

http://www.insidehalton.com/whatson-story/4923662-10-reasons-why-canadian-thanksgiving-is-better-than-american-thanksgiving/

Be that as it may, thanks for visiting and HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

Oh, I nearly forgot the Afterward maps: (Note the new lake-effect snows, and the small storm being whisked south of us.)

20141127 satsfc 20141127 rad_ec_640x480

CALGARY, PREPARE FOR EXTREME COLD!

I was looking “upstream,” for hints at what the weather will be like downstream, here in New Hampshire, after our Thanksgiving snowstorm, and I came across this Dr. Ryan Maue map at the Weatherbell site. It is an anomaly map, showing if temperatures are above or below normal, and shows the conditions 90 hours from now, on Saturday.

The map shows it will be a little below normal round here, in the fading north winds after our Thanksgiving storm, but then I look northwest to western Canada…

Yikes!  That light purple is temperatures more than 50 degrees below normal, Fahrenheit. In actual fact the coldest spots are off the color-code key to the right of the map, which only goes as low as 50 below normal.  If you look at the small writing at the upper right, you see the lowest is actually -63.6 of normal.  Double Yikes! (Click maps, or open-to-new-tab, to clarify and enlarge.)

Calgary cold Nov 25 gfs_t2m_anomf_noram_16

In terms of actual temperatures, it looks like the core of that cold will touch -50, but Calgary may be to the edge and “only” get to -23. (-31 Celsius.)

Calgary cold Nov 25 gfs_t2m_noram_31

 

They can keep that stuff up there, as far I’m concerned. For heaven’s sake! It isn’t even December yet!

My hope is that the cold clashes with the above normal air to the south, and brews up a big west-coast gale. Some models are showing California getting some needed rain as a storm hits them at the end of the weekend. If that storm would only suck in the cold, and swirl it around with Pacific air, it would be much milder when it came east.

LOCAL VIEW —THANKSGIVING SNOW? MILD AT THE MOMENT—

Quite a lovely rush of mild air swept over us yesterday, after the day began with a cold rain and temperatures down close to freezing. I didn’t mind the chill as I’d picked my smoked bacon and ham up, at the slaughterhouse in Troy, and was using the back of my truck as a sort of refrigerator, because the refrigerator in the house is crammed with stuff for Thanksgiving.

It was 36 when I drove the 6 five-year-olds to kindergarten, and then I went home to test out the fresh bacon for breakfast.  It was delicious, but then the after-effects of insomnia hit, and even though I had a ton to do I lay down to listen the lulling drumming of rain on the roof, and the next thing I knew it was over an hour later and the low sun was beaming through the window into my eyes. I headed into the cool kitchen for a second coffee, and stepped out onto the porch, and it was ten degrees warmer outside than inside.  (62 versus 52) (17 vs.11 Celsius) A warm front had swept north and past us.

It was hard to take the winter storm watches seriously when the kind wind was ruffling fingers through my hair, but I managed to potter about, putting the smoked meat from the back of the now too-warm pick-up into the freezer, getting some late carrots from the thawing soil in the frozen garden, dismantling the box I built in the back of my truck when I moved the pigs, moving the lumber into the stall to repair the goats stables with, instructing the fellow who came by to tow off my youngest son’s car to the shop to be fixed, loading the porch with firewood, all the while in a dreamy mood due to the mildness.

20141124B satsfc 20141124B rad_ne_640x480

Even after dark it stayed mild. The family is starting to gather for Thanksgiving, and we had a fresh ham for dinner with six adults and a baby at the table. (I never seem to get to enjoy much empty-nest-syndrome.) A lot a talk was about the coming storm, even as we were in T shirts due to the heat from the oven and the nearly completely closed-up wood-stove (which has had the same fire burning in it since mid-October.) I checked the computer and saw that at the Weatherbell site Joe Bastardi had noted the NAM model had upped the snow amounts:

Thkz3 Screen_shot_2014_11_24_at_9_40_56_PM

Now I’m up at 2:00 AM with my typical insomnia, and it is still mild, with hazy starlight. It is nearly impossible to imagine that in 24 hours it is suppose to be snowing heavily.  It is 57 out, (14 Celsius) and 64 (18 Celsius) down in Fitchburg, a half hour south of here in Massachusetts. The cold front won’t get here until around daybreak. Even though I can see the backlash snow well west of here, north of Chicago on the radar, and can see the first hint of low pressure down in South Carolina,  it is hard to think the storm won’t be rain.

20141125B satsfc 20141125B rad_nat_640x480

Considering worry is something I am all too good at, it seems odd I am doing such a bad job of it.

The mildness has chased the snow-cover north, and it has retreated greatly from its record-setting levels of only five days ago, when it was just north of here and clear down to Texas. However the west side of Hudson Bay is freezing up swiftly. The warmth never got up that far.

Snowcover 20141125 ims2014328_usa

 

LOCAL VIEW —VAPORS OF MY MIND—

I’m starting the week with up-at-1:00 -AM insomnia.  I might as well check out some maps.

It is still too early for the latest computer models, but the most recent runs continue to fuel the frenzy about a Thanksgiving storm. The GFS has now pulled the storm in closer to the coast.  Here’s the Dr Ryan Maue map from the Weatherbell site, of the GFS forecast for Thanksgiving Eve. (Wednesday night):

Thk 1 gfs_ptype_slp_east_13

(The above map should alert European viewers to the difference in pressures of gales at lower latitudes, when they note the storm is barely below 1000 mb.)

Even the Canadian JEM model is starting to pull the storm closer to the coast, but it seems to now weaken it by having it be two ripples on the front rather than a single gale. I’ve actually seen this happen to a system the media is making a hoopla about.  Everyone is wild-eyed, and the reporters are down on the beaches all ready to report “live shots” of crashing surf and howling winds and smothering snow, and they look ridiculous because there is just a gentle breeze, a few ripples, and a single, wandering snowflake.

The other thing that turns looming storms into jokes is the slight flattening of steering currents that will whisk a storm out to sea. I remember the sheer agony this would cause me as a boy, when I hadn’t done my math homework, and Virginia would get over a foot and up here we’d only get gray skies. The only thing worse was to have a storm veer inland, and change snow to rain.

The devil is in the details. In many ways a forecaster is like a gambler studying the horses, and betting on the odds.  There are countless factors that can throw a forecast off, and what amazes me (besides the fact they even attempt to predict the behavior of chaos) is that they can see a snowstorm when the entire east of the USA is warm and the storm doesn’t even exist.  Joseph D’Aleo admits there are still many possible outcomes, and uses the headline, “Whopper or Wimp?” while Joe Bastardi (so far) has had the good sense to avoid the devilish details, and instead to bask in the glory of having seen this threat coming over a week ago.

Weather geeks are a most merciless group.  Years ago Mr. Bastardi saw a threat in a hurricane when it was way over by Africa, and used the headline, “Houston, We Have A Problem,” and a week later the weather geeks were taking him to task because the storm (Rita?) hit Houston’s suburbs and not downtown. Therefore I wouldn’t blame him one bit if he remains in the safety of the long term, and avoids the specifics of the short term’s devilish details. (Of course, because he loves competition, he’ll be tempted to stick his neck out as the geeks sharpen their axes.)

The thing that amazes me is the fact he saw the threat a week ago.  He calls it “pattern recognition,” but to me it is mysterious, for to me the future that far out is all vapors of worry, and unreal creations of my mind.  The current map looks far too mild to imagine a snowstorm in three days.

I guess we’ll call this mild storm storm #4, though it can’t count as a winter storm.  Yesterday saw it form between an Alberta clipper on the northern branch and a stalled low left behind by a cold front, down in the southern branch’s territory. A large area of rain appeared where none had existed. (Images can be clicked, or openned to a new tab, for larger and clearer views.)

20141123B satsfc 20141123B rad_nat_640x480

The maps from this morning’s wee hours shows #4 continuing to mill about out there.  The first cold front, down in Texas, only holds Chinook-warmed Pacific air behind it, but that second cold front, cutting through Iowa and Nebraska and then up to Montana, represents the arctic wolves, and some backlash snow is appearing on the radar behind it.

20141124 satsfc20141124 rad_nat_640x480

Storm #4 is expected to slide northeast through Quebec, between Hudson Bay and the St Lawrence Valley,  and then off Labrador, dragging those arctic wolves south and then east off the USA coast, but even in 48 hours there is little sign of a storm, unless you call the weak low pressure along the rain-front south of Florida a “storm.”

Thx 2 gfs_ptype_slp_east_9

Even at the 48 hour point, 24 hours before the map that began this post, the storm is just vapors, both literally and in terms of imagination. All sorts of wrenches can be thrown into the works that change everything. For example, if you look back at the current maps you can see something brewing off the Carolina coast. That is just the sort of small detail a computer model might miss. If it grew larger than expected it could cause #4 to wobble, and just as a small pebble can cause a huge avalanche, cause-and-effect would lead to cause-and-effect, and the storm for Thanksgiving could vanish completely, except for the sheepish grins on the faces of forecasters, [except for Joe Bastardi’s, (because he only said a storm would be in the news this week, and didn’t give specific details.)]

In any case, though I don’t like to be ruled by the vapors of worry, I should get back to bed. I’ve got a lot to do before snow buries us. However…..I’m not tired. What can I do that will promote sleep?

Hmm. My poetry. It seems to work on everyone else.

VAPORS OF MY MIND

Peeking downwards from the verge
I tire of this edginess
And think I’ll turn away
From my constant fear
Of dying; of rejection; of exposure;
Of what happens anyway
Though I seek to disappear it
Though I cannot grasp or steer it
And it’s gone each time I near it.

Vapors of my mind I think
Are despots of asylum rooms
Which cultivate a thousand dooms
That window box as danger looms
And fight ferocious pansy blooms.

Tapers in my temple wink
An eye lashing of candlelight
And think it foolish that I fight
An escalator’s up-bound flight,
Dashing down with all my might.

Tired of this edginess
I think I’ll turn away
From what seems a sort of suicide
Made of mental, muddled pride.
Instead of flapping I will glide.
Who knows? I might enjoy the ride.

Hmm.  It didn’t work.  I’m not sleepy. Maybe I’ll try eating a big bowl of oatmeal.

LOCAL VIEW —Thanksgiving storms—Calgary and Boston

Temperatures have risen overnight, as we get a brief breather from winter weather. As the cold high pressure sags out to sea to our south milder air is swung north on its west side and east over its top, and it is ten degrees warmer in Northern Vermont than down in Virginia. (41 degrees in Burlington versus 31 in Roanoke.) (+1 vs. -5 Celsius). The radar shows nothing but sprinkles of rain, and no northern snow. It is colder in Washington DC than up in New York and Boston.

20141123 satsfc

20141123 rad_ne_640x480

One breathes a sigh of relief in the mild, predawn darkness, but worry wonders where the cold has gone. It obviously is to our south, being warmed by southern landscapes and a the Atlantic’s Gulf Stream, as reinforcements must be gathered to our north up in Canada.

I like to look upstream to Calgary for hints about our future, and yesterday the Blogger Stewart Pid alerted me to a snow event they were seeing pop up on their long-range charts. So I look that way. (I hope this works)

MonNov 24      TueNov 25      WedNov 26    ThuNov 27        FriNov 28
Mainly sunny    Flurries           Snow              Mainly cloudy   Cloudy with sunny breaks
                                  
0°C                  -1°C                 -1°C                -6°C                 -8°C
 2-4 cm            ~20 cm            5-10 cm

That is the forecast for Fernie, up in the Rockies southwest of Calgary. The snow-event is not quite as big as it appeared in yesterday’s forecast, but a possible 34 cm of snow is nothing to ignore, and I can also see their mild weather will be ending.  The reinforcements of  arctic wolves will be heading south.

But will the howling wolves just head south to Texas in the west, as mildness surges north here in the east?  The models are showing a low heading up from the Gulf of Mexico towards the Great Lakes,  and that would seem to keep us on the warm side.  However, just as mild air can surge east over the top of a high, as it is doing this morning, cold air can surge under the bottom of a low, next week.  Too often I’ve watched mild air come towards New Hampshire, only to be lifted off the ground up into an occlusion aloft just before getting here, to count on any real warmth actually arriving.

Also, when a cold, arctic high pressure moves out over the Atlantic, as is happening today, it is sort of like the lid on a pressure cooker. The warm water wants to billow warmth up like a huge hot air balloon into the cold air, but the descending air in the high pressure keeps it clamped down.  It is as if the balloon is tethered down, and then, as the high pressure moves off shore, it is like the tether was chopped with an ax.  Abruptly the air rises and abruptly you have a storm off the coast, just in time for Thanksgiving.

So I go to the Weatherbell site to see what Dr. Ryan Maue’s maps say, and immediately see that, as usual, Joseph D’Aleo is miles ahead of me, and has already done all the work on his blog’s post.  He shows that GEM (Canadian) GFS (American) and ECMWF (European) all see the Thanksgiving storm, but have hugely  different solutions.

The GEM sees the storm slipping harmlessly out to sea.

Thanks 1 cmc_pr6_slp_t850_conus_23
The GFS model sees the storm just brushing us, with perhaps 2 inches of snow.
Thanks 2 gfs_pr3_slp_t850_conus_43
But the ECMWF?  Yikes!  We get clobbered.
Thanks 3 ecmwf_slp_precip_conus2_22(1)
(Click maps, or open them to a new tab, to clarify and enlarge them)
This morning a lazy American weatherman will just click onto the American model, and yawn, and forecast 2 inches of snow near the coast for Thanksgiving. The general public will make travel plans with no idea that the European model is forecasting Boston and New York getting buried by snow amounts like this: (Click to enlarge.)
Thanks 4 ecmwf_tsnow_boston_41(2)
Hopefully this forecast will shrink, as the forecast in Calgary seems to be starting to do. It is a “I’ll have to see it to believe it” forecast.  However, if I were making travel plans, I’d keep it in the back of my mind.