ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Fram Flushing–

A fascinating change in the pattern at the Pole is occurring, involving the winds in Fram Strait switching from south winds, which prevent the sea-ice from exiting the Arctic Sea, to north winds, which flush the sea-ice down into the Atlantic.

One interesting example of the bias of Alarmists is that both south winds and north winds are a sign of Global Warming. South winds bring milder air north, which is proof the Pole is warming, while north winds flush sea-ice south and reduce the amount of sea-ice in the Central Arctic, which is proof the Pole is warming.

In any case I’ll start with a bunch of maps, which will show the switch. We’ll begin back on March 18, when high pressure over Norway and low pressure north of Greenland had south winds in Fram Strait, and a clear “feeder band” of milder air probing up towards the Pole.

The “feeder band” fed the weak low north of Greenland, and it took an unusual route over Svalbard, strengthening and switching the winds from south to north in Fram Strait.

The storm became quite strong, but notice how the “feeder band” fades. Despite the sunrise at the Pole, the warmer air is still lost to outer space, and the temperatures at the Pole remain close to thirty below.

The storm fades into western Russia, but a small low follows over Svalbard, keeping the flow of cold air south through Fram Strait.

At this point I am noticing the low down by Iceland, and wondering if it will disrupt the pattern by taking a more traditional route. High pressure is being pumped behind the prior storm, over Scandinavia.

In the above map I am already noting that the Icelandic gale will not behave as I expect, as the prior low has pumped a ridge over Scandinavia, blocking the Icelandic gale. It will be deflected towards Fram Strait. This could get interesting.

Another big low moves up from Cape Farewell at the southern tip of Greenland to Iceland, and runs up against the blocking high over Scandinavia. That high is expanding south and west, growing into what would be a northern positioning of the Azores High, if it was warmer, but it is not a balmy high pressure.

The gale has managed to squeeze over the top of the high pressure, weakening a lot, and the flow in Fram Strait is now east to west, flushing out less ice. The blocking high has forsed the next gale up the west side of Greenland, into Baffin Bay.

As the Baffin Bay low transits the high icefields of Greenland it sucks a new “feeder band” up through Fram Strait, fueling a “Ralph” (Anomolous area of low pressure) over the Pole, as the old Atlantic gale sags into Russia. At this point I am sitting back and quite confident the flow down through Fram Strait is over. The blocking high pressure is bulging north south of Iceland, forsing a second Gale west up into Baffin Bay.

Only a day later and I am scratching my head, for again there are north winds in Fram Strait, despite the Baffin Bay low approaching from the west, which I thought would create south winds. However I figure the north winds will soon shift south, and my attention is diverted to the speed at which the “feeder band” is cooled, as it fuels the “Ralph.”

The Baffin Bay low fights its way over the blocking high and the 10,000 foot high icefields of Greenland, and is in Fram Strait, where winds are nearly calm. High pressure builds in its wake. I pay little attention. I am thinking of writing a post on how the “feeder band” cooled despite the fact the sun has risen, which shows the Pole is still losing heat to outer space. I am watching “Ralph”. Fram Strait is not a focus of my attention.

Yowza! What the heck happened!? Crossing the northernmost north Atlantic the Baffin Bay low totally exploded, and the high behind it became totally pumped, and the winds are screaming south in Fram Strait. Who the heck cares about the dwindling “Ralph”, or about “feeder bands” you can barely see any more?

The Baffin Bay low, (which now perhaps qualifies as a “Barents Sea Blaster”) never sunk down into Russia, but rather wobbled about southeast of Svalbard, helped by a Fujiwara dance with another Atlantic low which managed to squeak over the blocking high. The maps below basically demonstrate we have seen six days of roaring north winds in Fram Strait. (And many other things as well, but one needs to limit ones focus, at times.)

At this point we perhaps can sit back and attempt to see what the effect of six days of Fram Flushing has been. One rather cool effect is that the sea-ice, formerly crushed west into the east coast of Greenland, has been spread out, forming polynyas of open water or very thin baby-ice along Greenland’s coast, but actually crossing the Denmark Strait and touching the north coast of Iceland in two places.

However, before you plan to saunter from Iceland to Greenland, it is important to be aware “thickness” maps exist in a dream-world of “averages” and the average of a few big bergs and much open water is six inches. There is in fact no six inch thick ice to stroll upon, and you’d better be prepared to hop like a super-kangaroo to get from big berg to big berg. A satelite few of the ice-edge between Greenland and Iceland will give you a good idea of the conditions we are dealing with.

Of course, with ice being flushed south in Fram Strait, one looks north to see where the sea-ice is coming from. And indeed some big leads have opened north of Greenland. (Greenland coast at lowest right corner.)

If you look at these leads you will notice they are dark on their left sides and more milky to the right, which shows you how rapidly sea-ice forms with temperatures still down close to thirty below. In some ways leads may increase the production of sea-ice, especially in April. (In July it is totally different, with air temperatures above freezing.) To be honest, I am uncertain if exporting sea-ice through Fram Strait decreases the amount of sea-ice, or increases it.

In the short term the more sea-ice you flush down into the Atlantic, the less your total will be, because the Atlantic swiftly melts the bergs. However there are long-term consequences as well. What happens if you chill the Atlantic?

In the winter of 1816-1817 there was apparently such an amazing Fram Strait flushing that it seems pure hyperbole. The sea-ice didn’t just reach the north coast of Iceland; it reached Ireland.(Never seen since). So much ice was flushed south the waters north of Greenland were wide open. Coastlines never mapped before were mapped, and one whaler claimed he sailed up through Fram Strait, westward over the top of Greenland, and down through Baffin Bay. The English Navy was galvanized, for it seemed a Northwest Passage might be opening up. But the same time saw a “year with no summer” in western Europe, because the Atlantic had been so chilled by the discharge of sea-ice. (Meanwhile Eastern Europe was warm; apparently the chilled Atlantic caused the summer jet stream to dig unusually far south over Western Europe, but to loop north in the East.)

In any case, the current flushing (so far) is small potatoes compared to 1817. But it is interesting to think about the factors involved.

One factor is that if you greatly cool the Atlantic you also cool the water that ordinarily melts a lot of sea ice, when it enters the arctic as the northernmost tendrils of the warm Gulf Stream. If you cool those tendrils they can melt less ice, which leads to more ice and colder temperatures which leads to even more ice. In fact the very low sea-ice of 1817 sent the 600 ship British Navy, (recently unemployed with Napoleon defeated and the conflict with the United States ended), exploring open Arctic waters which they then saw become increasingly ice covered. In 1819 William Parry was able to sail far west in the sound which now bears his name, yet the Franklin expedition perished, trapped by ice in the same waters thirty years later. It might be that a discharge of sea-ice through Fram Strait is a sort of “tipping point” or “trigger”, which sets off cooling. Or maybe not. But it should at least be considered.

Fram Strait is important because it is the only deep connection the Arctic Sea has with the rest of the world’s oceans. The arctic cools vasts amounts of water, and cold water sinks, drawing warm water north to replace it. As the warm water comes north the colder water must exit south, but has difficulty doing so in shallow waters of the continental shelf, such as Bering Strait or the waters east of Svalbard. Only west of Svalbard is there a deep channel for cold waters that have sunk deep. Even so, some cold water spills over the shallow waters of the continental shelf on the Greenland side of Fram Strait, but, as soon as that water has a chance, it plunges downwards. South of Fram Strait, where the continental shelf draws closer to Greenland, there is a sort of underwater Niagara Falls, where huge amounts of cold water plunges down over the edge of the continental shelf.

As this cold water plunges down it is removed from the influences that control weather at the surface, and, though part of the thermohaline circulation, it cannot effect temperatures at the surface for hundreds and sometimes thousands of years, when it reappears as an upwelling at some other place on the planet. However if that water comes south with a bunch of sea-ice, the sea-ice cannot sink down to the abysmal deeps, but merrily continues to bob south at the surface, and consequently continues to be able to greatly alter weather at the surface. Those who sail northern fogs state you can feel the chill of an iceberg long before you can see it.

Despite six days of frigid north winds, current anomaly maps do not show much cooling of the north Atlantic.

I think ice-water causes problems for the models that produce such maps. Technically ice-water is as cold as water can get, for it is where ice and water coexist. Therefore, because water any colder would not be water but rather ice, ice-water cannot be “above normal”, because that would suggest a “normal” where water was fluid below freezing. However I have often seen such models describe ice-water as a degree, (and in one case three), above “normal”. Impossible. But in any case I am expecting to see the models catch on later in the season, and to see the North Atlantic cooled. Currently the cooling is only apparent east of Iceland.

Another effect the north winds have is to slow the flow of warmer waters to the arctic. The major warm tendril of the Gulf Stream in Fram Strait is the WSC (West Spitsbergen Current), which bounces off the coast of Norway and travels north roughly along the line of ten degrees longitude. This mild current is responsible for ice-free water on the east side of Fram Strait, and ice-free waters north and northwest of Svalbard, sometimes even in the dead of winter. However this water is only held at the surface because it is warmer than than surrounding water; in terms of salinity it wants to sink, because evaporation down in the tropics makes it saltier than surrounding water, and salty water wants to sink below fresher water. Therefore when the WSC chills to a certain point it sinks below the surface, and can melt sea-ice no longer. Six straight days of being blasted by northern winds likely has chilled the WSC more than usual. It may dive beneath the surface prematurely, and allow sea-ice to persist north of Svalbard.

Interestingly, the WSC remains recognizable even after it dives under the surface, due to its salt content and temperature, and hard working scientists have traced it as it describes a complete circuit of the Pole and exits, still different from colder water, on the west side of Fram Strait as part of the ice-clogged, southbound EGC. (East Greenland Current.)

I am somewhat amazed by the hard work done, getting beneath the sea-ice to measure these currents, especially as such study discovers no gold and isn’t profitable in any immediate worldly sense. I’ve noticed the discoveries don’t always jive with prior discoveries. I don’t think this is due to one scientist being “right” and another “wrong”, but rather because the currents wander. After all, like the jet stream high overhead, currents have no restraining banks like a river has, and are free to meander whither they will. What I imagine is needed is a salesman to sell the idea of under-ice sensors as numerous as weather balloons are above the ice, to trace the meanderings. Hmm. Good luck with that job.

Another effect of the north winds howling south through Fram Strait for six straight days would likely be to slow the speed of the WSC northward, while increasing the speed of the EGC southward. This creates interesting pneumatic problems, for water doesn’t compress and cannot stretch. Initially I would think that slowing the speed of the WSC by a tenth of a mile per hour would only delay the arrival of the water in Fram Strait slightly, but the effect upstream might in some ways be immediate. When you press a brake pedal the pneumatic effect takes no time to reach your brakes. The only give in the Arctic Sea pneumatic system is the level of the sea, and if the WSC is importing less water north as the EGC is exporting more water south, the level of the Arctic Sea should theoretically drop. And if it is then lower than surrounding seas, would that not increase the tendency of water to pour into the arctic in other places?

Lastly, the tundra and taiga are just starting to see days longer than nights, and snows are just starting to melt, which means arctic rivers, frozen to a mere trickle by the bitter winter cold, are just beginning to rise. The increases are astounding. For example, the largest river, the Lena, can rise sixty feet in spring floods. The import of fresh water into the Arctic Sea goes from near zero to vast amounts. This fresh water tends to form a “lens” atop the saltier water, and freezes more easily than salt water. Therefore the import of water to the Arctic Sea switches from largely being saltier water from the tropics in early April, to fresh water from rivers in June. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, (or put it in your climate model and watch the computer smoke and melt down).

The more you study sea-ice the more you become aware the variables are multitudinous, and perhaps chaotic to all minds but the Creator’s. Every year 20 thousand cubic kilometers of sea-ice are created, only to melt away every summer down to around 5 cubic kilometers that remain. By the end of summer the sea-ice is splotched with meltwater pools, and in places broken into slabs.

The satellites tend to see meltwater pools as open water, but the scientists slogging about collecting data (and rescuing equipment before it sinks) know such pools are usually but puddles on firm ice (though a few can reach down through the ice, holes down to an open sea a mile deep.)

It is a beautiful landscape. I wish we still had the Barneo polar tourist-trap and jetport, the floating buoys with cameras, and the intrepid adventurers skiing past polar bears, but pictures are getting harder and harder to find. Right now we’d be seeing the floating bergs were now firmly fixed in the winter’s new baby-ice.

We could examine where leads had opened, frozen swiftly over with baby-ice, and then clapped shut, stacking the baby-ice like plates.

All these images strike me as beautiful, and inspire no dread of a “Death Spiral”, nor of a planet broiling and boiling. A quick glance at the “volume” graph shows we have more ice than last year, and indeed more than in 2017, so it’s hard to fear it is all melting away.

In fact, rather than inspiring fear, the sea-ice inspires a sense of wonder. It is amazing how our Creator designed our planet to work, with its seasons and its ebbing and flowing. My mind is more inclined towards awe than towards dread, which makes the pseudo-scientists hired by politicians seem all the more like purveyors of panic porn. They make it their business to inspire fear, rather than appreciation of how well the world is made. They want to sell vaccines, rather than appreciate the excellent antibodies made by immune systems we already possess, so they downplay wonder and stir up dread.

God’s beauty currently does not manifest in Washington D.C., but it does manifest at the Pole. If you want to feel uplifted, shut off the Fake News, and study the clouds, or sunsets, or sea-ice.

As a final aside and wonder, I’ll point out that the current flushing of Fram Strait has drained the Pole of a lot of its cold air, exporting the cold all the way south to April snows in England. Yet despite the export of all this cold air, temperatures at the Pole are not all that far above normal, and indeed are closer to normal than they were at this time last year.

It will be interesting to watch the arctic for further developments. Stay tuned.

LOCAL VIEW –Chickidea–

from cdn.birdwatchingdaily.com

With so much dour news emanating from The Swamp, I’ve found little reason to be optimistic and hopeful recently, and I always find I have to make a concerted effort to cling to my belief life is beautiful, when in fact life looks downright ugly.

This immediately brings me to a subject some object to, which is that our sense of beauty tends to be very subjective, and downright fickle. It also is quite personal. I recall, as a tender adolescent, being somewhat astonished by how my face looked pretty good in the mirror on some days, but on others looked ghastly. As a young scientist I understood it was the same face. How could it appear so different, and in some ways completely opposite?

Usually it seemed to involve whether I felt loved or not. If Nancy (or Betsy or Debby) smiled at me in the high school hallways, the face in the mirror looked handsome and debonair, but if the same female sulked, the face in the mirror was blotched by acne and had a vile, shit-eating smile. It was absurd, and on some deep level I recognized the absurdity. My boyhood diary at one point sardonically comments, “I looked bad in the mirror this morning. What’s it mean, Froid?” (I did not know how to spell “Freud”.)

Yet the passage of a half century hasn’t changed things all that much. When you are smiled at, you feel beautiful, and in fact are beautiful. You become radiant. People want to draw close to you. But when you are frowned at, you become depressed and neurotic, and people avoid you like the plague or corona virus. As Ella Willcox noted in her 1887 poem “Solitude”, and O Henry noted again in 1907, “When you laugh, the world laughs with you. Weep, and you weep alone.”

In a better world we might show more sympathy, and obey the more ancient Roman proverb which ended, “Weep, and the world weeps with you.” But, sadly, a great deal of emphasis in the modern world involves whether you are accepted as politically correct, or cancelled by Cancel Culture; whether you appear on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter with lots of “likes”, or have been censored and banned from such platforms. If you take all this nonsense too seriously it can involve how you look in the mirror. If a collection of idiots and Karens call you praiseworthy, you appear charming and lovable, but if the same idiots and Karens disdain you, the mirror states you are deplorable, irredeemable, and a bitter clinger.

I knew this was nonsense at age sixteen, and nothing that has passed in the last fifty years has changed my mind in the slightest. I have always been a counter-snob to all snobbery. People who we now scoff at as “virtue signaling” were mocked fifty years ago as “slaves to status symbols.” For there has always been a deeper awareness that true beauty is not a shallow and superficial thing. True beauty is the reflection of Truth, and Love.

That word “Love” is crucial. As we age we discovered that Nancy (or Betsy or Debby) was not God. (I assume women discover the same thing about men.) We move on to discovering that owning a 1966 Mustang is not love. And so on and so forth. In fact, if we truly progress spiritually, we pretty much call all status symbols garbage, all positions of fame and power garbage, all political correctness garbage, and tell Hollywood, psychologists, and all bossy law-makers to go get screwed, for there is only one true author of Love, and that is God.

But if we fail to make such rapid spiritual progress, (and most of us fail), then we tend to get hooked on some worldly thing that makes us feel beautiful. Maybe it is heroin. When we take it we feel beautiful, and are actually attractive when high, so people want to draw closer to us, but later, when withdrawal sets in, everyone makes themselves scarce. Or maybe our hook is gambling, and when winning we feel beautiful, and walk with a woman on either arm, but when losing our complexation becomes green and everyone avoids us. Or maybe our hook is winning elections or writing hit records or appearing in blockbuster movies, and success makes us feel beautiful, but there is a down side as well. But for most the hook is less extravagant, and is more modest, the simple successes of a good marriage or a small business, but here too there is a down side. The good marriage will be wrecked, because one spouse will die. Must this make what was beautiful become ugly? In like manner the owner of the best small business, which succeeds with amazing compassion for both employees and customers, faces mortality, for he or she too must die. Does that make what was beautiful ugly?

No. I asserted this at age sixteen and I assert it at age sixty-eight. Beauty is beautiful. It doesn’t matter if you are a heroin-addicted, male whore of a Swamp politician who will throw you under the bus tomorrow, the glimpse of beauty you saw in your rise and fall was the real deal. Beauty is beautiful.

Ugly is ugly because it in some way denies the fact beauty is beautiful. However this is foolish. It is like shadows denying they exist because of light, and instead attempting to congregate and plot ways to attack the light, ignoring a glaring fact: The moment shadows step from the shadows to attack the light, they cease to exist.

What I just wrote was profound, if I do say so myself, but I confess it is not obvious, at this moment in the history of the United States. Currently the shadows are gathering, but haven’t yet fully stepped out to attack the light. Ugly is ugly, at the moment.

With what is ugly currently seeming triumphant, I seem to have chosen the wrong side. I haven’t. I know beauty will win, in the end.

But, in the meantime, a fellow like me has to run a small business and be patriarch of a small family, midst a global ugliness, and I can’t expect to see much beauty in my day-to-day dealings. Yet I crave beauty. I need to inhale some beauty, if I am expected to exhale any in my day-today dealings.

In order to inhale beauty in an ugly world, I do what I did in school in 1959. I look out the window, and not at the black board. I remove my nose from the grindstone and sniff the roses. I shut off the news and walk out into the view.

God made that view for us to enjoy, and even in rotton weather there is usually something beautiful to see, if you look for it. In the springtime it becomes easier. People refer to it as “communing with nature.” I was describing it in the comments of a recent post:

I was out with the children at my Childcare and watched a bald eagle battle the north winds. I get a thrill seeing eagles, for there were no bald eagles to be seen around here the first sixty years of my life, but the kids are rather ho-hum about such occurrences, for eagles are just an everyday bird to them.

Today the eagle was pretending to fish but the ducks knew he (or she) will eat a duck if need be, so they were zinging all over the place as he (or she) innocently looked for trout. But the chaos of thirty ducks and lone eagle was occurring in a thirty mile an hour gale from the north. What amazed me was that the birds behaved as if the wind was a minor matter, like the “temperature at game time” for baseball players.

A few weeks back I got a crick in my neck watching an eagle battle his (or her) way upwind in a fifty-mile-an-hour gale. At first I thought he was being battered, because he seemed staggered, lowering first one shoulder and then the other, like a boxer getting pummeled. But then I noticed he wasn’t being beaten backwards. In fact he was making remarkable progress, moving north at around fifteen miles an hour despite the winds whooshing south at fifty. It seemed that (and I’m guessing) that when he lowered first one shoulder and then another he (or she) was expertly tacking upwind with a swiftness and dexterity all skippers of all sailboats would envy.

One might wonder if birds are superior to humans, considering the remarkable things they do. They do what they do without a college education, utilizing some thing we do not understand, but pretend we understand by calling it “instinct”.

Considering a lone eagle can tack upwind better than a billionaire with an expert crew of twenty on the most lavish yacht can, one might wonder what is the use of human endeavor. We cannot even match a bird.

However there is an equivalent of instinct in birds, which does occur in mortal humans. It is something we do not understand, but pretend we understand by calling it “intuition.”

It has occurred to me that when I am feeling uglified by the world, and go out for a walk and wind up feeling beautiful, it is because I have been loved. When “communing with nature” my intuition (whatever that is) is communing with the Creator, and the Creator doesn’t want us miserable, and will rain love down upon us if we only allow it.

Thinking along these lines got me a little cross-eyed the other morning. It is a bit humbling to go for a walk and think the Creator is right there. I couldn’t quite tell if I felt tiny or enormous. But I was feeling loved, as the north winds had ceased and the sunshine was kindly. It occurred to me the spring birds would have come out from hiding, with the wind ceasing, and I should listen for harmony.

Rather than spring birds, a couple of winter chickadees came flitting out to serenade me. They are tiny birds, and very perishable in cold winds, yet they don’t fly south and survive extreme cold by avoiding wind, and becoming balls of fluff in calm places. You will never see them at a feeder in a cold wind, and even in a light breeze they will always face upwind, to keep the chill from getting under their feathers. But this morning was mild, and with winter behind them they were attending to some sort of territorial discussion, singing their “spring soon” call back and forth at each other. It seemed a bit like dueling banjos.

The call is two notes, descending, but these two birds were not agreeing on what key to sing in. The first sung an A followed by an F, and the second sung a G-sharp followed by an E. I was listening to the sequence of notes, telling God it was sweet and wondering if I could write a song with that sequence in it, when I noticed their calls were coming closer together. I knew what was coming, and with a sense of dread awaited hearing A sung with G-sharp, followed by F sung with E. They did it, and the discord made my fillings hurt. Perhaps they noticed my pained expression, for they only sung the discord twice before flitting away. I looked up at the sky and said, “Oh Lord; that was absolutely horrible!”

Then I burst out laughing, for it really did seem a great joke: A couple of chickadees attempting to be as ugly as Washington D.C. I laughed so hard I slapped my knee, but then I noticed a lady coming down the road walking her dog.

I set my lip. One needs to be cautious, when communing with nature in public.

LOCAL VIEW –Chill Winds–

I’m not a happy camper this Monday morning. A quick glance at the news shows me that people we didn’t elect are spending money we don’t have on things we don’t want. But besides that, all is well. The lunatics are running the asylum and the criminals are in charge of the court house, but besides that, all is well. A new employee turns out to have more troubles than you can shake a stick at, so I have to work when I didn’t plan to, but besides that, all is well. And I have to do my taxes, but besides that, all is well.

I am trying not to complain, because I recently got a reminder that things could be worse. I witnessed a poor plugger pushing his bike-with-saddle-bags home from work (I assume he had lost his license) and he had a sour expression because the bike had a flat tire. I didn’t know him, but was going to pull over and offer him a lift, but saw he had arrived home, for he threw his bike down in a small front lawn and stomped into a small, old house in the center of town. The poor fellow’s expression seemed to say, “Things can’t get worse”, but things did get worse. The next morning I couldn’t drive by that house, for it was charred and the street was closed, and the fellow had been airlifted to a hospital with bad burns on his hands and face.

Therefore I try to count my blessings. It doesn’t pay to sneer and snarl “things can’t get worse” because often they do, but they aren’t as bad as you thought they’d be when worrying about such a predicament beforehand, and also it is better to face calamities with an upbeat attitude, for it gets you through them to the other side.

Also this Monday’s the day after Easter, and I’m suppose to be full of hope and joy, for the “elite” tried to kill Truth 2000 years ago, and Truth didn’t remain dead; Truth couldn’t die; Truth rose from the grave and lives eternally, and is walking about alive today, 2000 years later, no matter what today’s “elite” seem to think.

But, though I attempted to give myself pep talks, I should honor Truth, and the truth is this Monday found me crabby as hell. It was typical April weather for the northeast corner of the USA, which is to say: Darn cold. April teases New Hampshire with rumors of warmth approaching from the southwest, but over and over the promises prove empty. If we get a balmy day it just makes the following chill seem worse. True spring never gets here until May.

Two things stop the advance of balmy breezes. The first is “cold air damming.” Basically the mountains to our west lift the warm air, and once it is lifted it can’t get back down again, and overrides the cold air in our dales and valleys. Sometimes the warm air is only a few hundred feet overhead, and you can feel it is warmer if you drive up to a hilltop. But down where you work it is cold and dank, and you glower up at the low clouds rushing up from the south, but too far overhead to warm your chapped hands.

The second thing is “back door fronts”. The balmy air rushing past overhead fuels a gale that brews up over the Atlantic just to our east, and behind that storm winds howl down from the north, where there is still snow, and ice in Hudson Bay. Often the back-door-front stands just to our southwest, and we wear winter coats as people in Pennsylvania wear short sleeves, and we flinch at snow-pellets as they hear summer thunder. It may not seem fair, but it is just how God laid out the landscape.

This year we’ve seen a lot of the big gales blowing up while passing over Cape Cod and moving towards Nova Scotia and then Labrador, giving us roaring winds from the north that make even small ponds look oceanic, with whitecaps and streaks of foam.

Such howling north wind is the last sort of weather I want to go out into, but I have to deal with some mischievous older boys at our Childcare. They are only there for an hour and a half, waiting for the school bus, but it is amazing the trouble they can get the smaller children into, and also they teach the small children some words parents don’t approve of, so I have to get them out for a hike before the bus comes. Initially they whined a lot, but now they seem to relish bounding across the spring landscape, free of the silly masks they have to don when they get on the school-bus. I, however, confess I don’t relish it so much. I’m getting a bit old for bounding. My expertise seems to now be huffing-and-puffing.

This morning I was particularly non-relishing. An Atlantic gale added insult to injury by failing to head out to sea, and instead looping around and heading back to the west, towards us.

Yesterday you could see the edge of the storm’s cloud shield gradually approach from the east, although Easter was sunny. That north wind refused to quit. The the cloud shield passed overhead last night, and by daybreak the blue sky could barely be seen, on the western horizon. It was a gray daybreak, and all I wanted to do was read the children stories in a cozy armchair. But the older boys would have none of it. I’d done too good a job of instilling them with a love of the outdoors. With a creak and a groan I headed out to face the music. Not that I expected any music, for when the north wind howls the spring songbirds hunker down in the most windless thickets they can find, and you hardly hear a peep.

But once I trudged out into the gray day I was astonished to see it wasn’t just the boys that bounded about. The bigger birds seemed to be bounding about in the sky. They seemed to be flying just for the fun of it. I’m not sure it is permissible to describe birds as “horsing around”, but they did seem to be displaying a lot of unnecessary effort. I think what jarred me out of my sour mood was seeing a crow chase a hawk half-way across a field, whereupon the hawk had apparently had enough of such nonsense, and they wheeled and swooped and then the hawk chased the crow back the other way. Bingo. Bad mood gone, and my mind started working on a sonnet.

I was walking with my Monday morning frown
In a cold north wind under gray, sliding skies,
A gale stalled out to sea, hands plunged deep down
In cold pockets, feeling only a fool tries
To hope, but something about the spring birds
Brooks no frowning. I speak not of songsters
Who hid from the blasts, but seek the words
To describe the bigger and far stronger
Fliers, who slice the gale as if rejoicing. 
The ducks spear through gusts; the ungainly herons
Power upwind, their silences voicing 
The eagle's strength, as crow turns and runs
From a hawk he'd chased, back the other way,
Making me smile though the skies are still gray.

Arctic Sea-Ice –Cold Daybreak–

This year’s sunrise at the Pole, marking the start of the six month “day”, was once again accented by the strange dip in temperatures which seems so contrary to what one might expect the first touch of sunlight to bring. However I’ve noticed the same phenomenon in the microcosm of my own back yard, on cold mornings. The coldest “nighttime low” occurs not at night, but just after daybreak.

I can’t really explain it, (but that has never stopped me from trying). Just guessing, I suspect there is a thin layer of very cold air right next to the ground. (I’ve seen frost on low places in my yard some autumn mornings, while my tomato plants only a few feet higher escape any frost.) The first beams of sun perhaps stirs up this low layer of cold air, at least to a level of four feet, where it effects thermometers. The sun may be warming, but in stirring cold air up it initially brings thermometers down. Or that is my best guess at why even the long-term averages show a slight dip at polar sunrise, (the green line on the graphs), and the red line has shown temperatures dip to below normal right at sunrise for the last four years, despite generally warm seas to the south and above-normal winters in the Central Arctic.

Check out the last three years. (Polar sunrise is around day 79)

2018
2019
2020

Usually the bounce-back to above-normal temperatures has been striking, but this year it seems a bit more sluggish. We’ve dipped down to the green line not once, but three times, and on the last occasion we spent five days below normal. Admittedly it was only a hair below normal, but it is enough to seem like “a change in the cycle.”

My own take is that there is less warm air available to import from the south. The “warm spikes” during winter (and even after sunrise, when the sun is too low to warm much), are not due to sunshine but rather imported from warmer waters to the south. The warmth of those waters is not due to stronger sunshine but rather weaker sunshine, which leads to weaker winds, which leads to weaker upwellings of cold water, which makes seas warmer at the surface. However the heat at the surface is a limited commodity, and because the sun is quiet such heat can be exhausted, which may be a development we are now beginning to witness. After an extended (and unexpected) period of warm El Ninos, the Pacific has seen a shift to colder La Nina conditions over the past year. The La Nina was expected to end this spring, but a disconcerting surge of colder water has recently emerged off the coast of Peru, suggesting the cold La Nina may not be so swift to weaken.

This La Nina will need to be watched, for it has encouraged the cooler waters off the the Pacific coasts of USA, Canada, and Alaska, which are signs of a “cold” PDO, which increases sea-ice north of Bering Strait. Also extra sea-ice in the Sea of Okhotsk will chill winds from the west, perhaps aiding and abetting that “cold” PDO, at least at the start of summer.

It should also be noted that the UAH average-world-temperature, likely due to the La Nina, is at its lowest in four years.

To return to my original point, it just seems there may be less heat available to melt sea-ice with, in some respects, this coming summer. The sun should become less quiet, but still will be more quiet than in the past, so there will not be extra radiance beating down on the sea-ice.

The sea-ice is noticeably thicker where it was thinnest last spring, along the Eurasian coast and especially in the Laptev Sea. The sea-ice which was shifted from the Eurasian coast into the Central Arctic has not been flushed south by the Transpolar Drift into Fram Strait and south into the Atlantic, but instead stands as a thick body, difficult to melt. Things are looking bad, in terms of an ice-free Pole this summer.

The build-up shows in the modelled DMI sea-ice-volume graph, which shows us moving from “lowest evah” last August to “more than in 2017”, this March.

The “extent” graph doesn’t mean much this time of year, as lots of sea-ice always vanishes from places far south of the true arctic. For example, a vast area of sea-ice ceased to exist, down in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, this past fortnight. Over the next few weeks large areas will vanish from the Sea of Okhotsk. Such fluctuations are normal and natural, and one should attend to whether they are early or late, and feel no worry that they happen. However I did notice something I found amusing about the “total”, which politicians think we need to fret about.

Below is the “extent” as determined by DMI through the month of February. Glance it over, and decide for yourself how 2021 stood, compared to the most recent five years. (2021 is black)

Now a bumpkin like me might note that in mid February the extent was the highest in the past six years, and also note that the month ended with 2021 second highest. However the powers-that-be noted that dip towards the end of February, when a couple of North Atlantic Gales compressed sea-ice west in the Greenland Sea and north in Barents Sea, and used that dip in extent to determine 2021 has the second lowest February sea-ice extent evah.

Now look at the past month. What do you think the 2021 extent will be listed as, by the powers-that-be?

A bumpkin like me might note 2021 had the highest extent of the past six years, just past mid month, but do think the powers that be will look at that? Or look at the fact April started with 2021 having the highest extent in the past six years? Or will they focus on that late month dip?

Time will tell.

But at least, even if you display a certain bias by focusing on dips, a dip is data. The DMI powers-that-be are at least not resorting to making stuff up, like certain politicians, who make up votes they never got, and print money they do not have.

I have more to say about sea-ice, but must attend to paying my taxes, for someone must come up with the five trillion the unelected idiots are spending. (Sorry to tell them this, but I haven’t got five trillion.)

Stay tuned.

Nancy Pelosi Plays Lady Macbeth

Around a year before the election Nancy Pelosi made a vaguely disturbing comment, along the lines of, “If we are going to do this thing, we had better be prepared to do it all the way.” It was somewhat unclear, (as it often is with her), what she was referring to, but it had to do with “winning the election”. It now seems possible that the “thing” she was referring to involved winning the election by fraudulent means.

To say the election was fraudulent is a quick way to be banned on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and yet such a fraud is generally accepted by a surprisingly large number of people. Many say the Dominion voting machines were “rigged”. In any case, by hook or by crook, Pelosi “won”.

But, in Shakespeare’s play “Macbeth”, Lady Macbeth also “won”, when she convinced her husband to gain power by murdering Duncan, King of Scotland. She worried her husband had too much of the “milk of human kindness” in him, and bragged that she had no such weakness, no such wimpy tendencies towards mercy, and would even pluck her own baby from her breast and dash its brains out, to gain political power. However, after Duncan was murdered, Lady Macbeth turned out to be less tough than she thought she was. This led to the famous scene where she is either sleepwalking, or just plain off her rocker, attempting to wash hallucinated blood from her hands and muttering, “Out; out damned spot.”

Lady Macbeth is one of the greater examples in literature of a person plagued by a guilty conscience. Shakespeare suggests there is something within the human psyche which reacts powerfully against evil, no matter how persuasive we may consiously be, regarding how evil is to our advantage.

This subconscious reaction is not a mere matter of disappointment, over having a gratified desire turn out to be less fulfilling than imagined beforehand. It is not the mere disappointment one feels after going out on a date with a person who appeared beautiful, but who turned out to be a complete dullard. Rather it is the keen sense one is guilty, one has done wrong, and that there are unpleasant consequences of some sort which one is going to face. One has ingested poison, and the future is not bright. Although one may have “won”, one has won a free trip to hell. Lady Macbeth “won” what she wanted, which was to be Queen of Scotland, but becoming queen was not the heaven she imagined, beforehand.

I wonder if Nancy Pelosi might not be in similar shoes, now that she has “won.” The murder involved was not of a person, a “King Duncan”, but rather of the United States of America, and all it stands for, (if the election was truly fraudulent.) What was “killed” was democracy.

In a sense Nancy may have achieved her life’s aim, if she saw opposing views as something which must be utterly defeated, yet now she may awaken, like Lady Macbeth, to the fact that what she has done is terrible.

For opposing views are not truly an enemy. They are like the other side of a tug-of-war; they keep you from falling down. If you destroy the other side of a tug-of-war your own side falls over. It is like killing the goose that laid the golden egg. What is beautiful about the two-party-system is what beautiful about marriage; to destroy one half of a two-party-system is like thinking you “win” by shooting your spouse.

Debate, when most healthy, results in an increase in understanding on both sides. But such healthy debate becomes impossible when one side resorts to blanket denial. And that is what negating the vote of a majority amounts to: A blanket denial of all the charges which that majority was making.

Nancy Pelosi cannot have worked so long in Washington DC without knowing what healthy debate looks like. Therefore she must also be aware it has recently largely been extinguished. I wonder if she looks down at her own hands, those same hands which tore Trump’s State of the Union speech in half, and mutters, “Out; out damn spot.”

LOCAL VIEW –Igloo’s demise–

After a mild start, winter became harsh and hard. We built a snow-fort with tall walls at the Childcare, but it wasn’t until February 16 we finally had a day mild enough to make the powder snow sticky enough to roof the walls. The wet, packed snow froze as solid as rock with nightfall, and the igloo seemed as permanent as granite.

Enough is never enough. A ramp was needed, starting from the right of the door and spiraling up to a porch to the left of the door, with a short tunnel left of that.

Old Man Winter towered in his might. He had just begun. He planned further expansions, even glaciers overrunning Boston

The children enjoyed the igloo, but were no more impressed by Old Man Winter’s power-mania than they are by Washington D.C.’s. Some even said they were bored of winter. They wanted to plant things, as if they somehow understood snow grows no food.

Then, from a trees highest twig, came the song of a bluebird.

Old Man Winter became furious, and sent his storm troopers to defend his domain.

The thaw dared threaten his art, so Winter
Rages, hurling wrathful daggers within
Howlings from the north. He wants to splinter
Sunshine like shards of glass, which makes Spring grin
And beam all the more warmly. What can match
March sunshine? It makes all the world crazy
Simply by beaming. I muse, "What's the catch?
What's the trick?" Before my eyes can see daisy
or crocus or even greening grass,
(When in fact there's nothing spring-like to see,)
March's spears of bright sunshine surpass
All Winter's daggers, and we are set free
From our scarfs, with battle completed.
Once again winter see's he's been defeated.

His storm troopers can’t stand up to sunshine. They lose their heads.

And his art is swift to follow.

FATTY BURGERS –Part 2: Training–

As I entered Fatty Burgers for my first day of work as a management-trainee, I of course had my share of preconceptions, some which were correct and some which were miles off the mark. But one must use what they have at hand, when entering a new situation as a novice.

One thing I could recognize was that Quincy Phlabutt was not entirely welcoming the idea of a new trainee. I assumed I might represent competition, if I turned out to be worthy of the exalted position of a Manager of a Fatty Burgers.

It wasn’t a thing I felt I could tell Quincy, but I wasn’t actually competition. I saw myself as a poet. Working for a fast-food burger joint was not a sign of success. In fact it was proof I was very humble, and willing to accept humiliation.  It would be one more event, in my future autobiography, which would describe my climb to success as a brilliant writer. The events would demonstrate I was not a snob as I climbed, and accepted many demeaning jobs. (But I was a snob, in my own way.)

The good part of my poetic snobbery was that I was not about to cut anyone’s throat to be a manager of a Fatty Burgers. I could take it or leave it. However, I was not so sure about Quincy. He might lack the freedom of owning a poetic temperament, and the management position he had might be all that he had, and he might fight like a cornered rat to keep it.

At age thirty-one I was still amazingly naïve, and still tended to see the best in people. However I’d already bopped about from state to state and from job to job far more than many do in their entire lives, and had been the “new kid” at so many jobs that I’d learned to divide people into two types, those who welcomed me and those who did not. Quincy struck me as one who would not.

As a person skilled in poetry, but not much else, I tended to work at “unskilled” positions. But to me the word “unskilled” demonstrated snobbery on the part of whoever came up with that word, “unskilled.” Why? Because it takes a certain skill to endure the monotony of such positions. I doubted the snob who invented the word “unskilled” had the skill to last even a week at many “unskilled” positions, which he in his snobbery had looked down his long nose at.

To be honest, I had a hard time lasting very long at such positions myself. Therefore I had a certain respect for the tougher characters who could last longer than I could. Many were very welcoming towards me as the cheerful “new kid”, initially because I made a welcome break to the monotony of their job, and later because I respected them, and found them far more interesting than the job itself was. People tend to like being viewed as fascinating.  But some found me threatening, in some way, to whatever meager poise they had achieved in their precarious position; there is little security at a workplace involving easily-replaceable “unskilled” workers. “Turnover” is high, especially at fast-food joints, and in fact when I returned to work at the Fatty Burgers in California a second time after a year, not a single employee who had been around the first time was still there, except for the manager.

At prior workplaces I had found it well worth my time to make the effort to befriend the people who were most hostile, upon my arrival as a “new kid.” I sought to utilize my most disarming smiles and most ingratiating charm. Often it worked, and in some cases the very people who liked me least, as the “new kid”, became the friends I exchanged letters with after I quit the job and left the area.

Even before we exchanged our first words Quincy Phlabutt had made it clear, with body language, that I was not welcome, so of course I loaded up my disarming smiles and ingratiating charm. This involved “figuring him out”, utilizing my skill as a Sherlock Holmes, which often came up with stunningly incorrect deductions. But it was all I had.

I assumed Quincy must be a rancher’s son,  grandson, or great-grandson, for the last name Phlabutt is Caucasian, and, in my four months of kicking about Gallup, I had heard mentions of a Phlabutt Ranch to the southwest, and had bought cigarettes at a Phlabutt Trading Post, in the middle of nowhere. This immediately lowered Quincy’s status, in my not-so-humble opinion.

I was not fond of ranchers. Why? I had a suspicion a rancher might be at work at seducing my ex, who I wanted to be my exex. She and I had come east to the wild west from California to work on a ranch, but, while my job had not materialized, her job had. A certain rancher needed a nanny because his wife had died of cancer, and my ex became a nanny as I did not become a ranch hand. This caused jealousy to enter my Sherlock Holmes calculations, and one thing about the genuine Sherlock Holmes was: His deductions were never poisoned by jealousy.

Mine were. But one power of poetry is that when you are being a dope you know it. It appeared in my scribbles, and I didn’t like what I was seeing. I soon was battling myself, which makes for some tedious reading, in the yellowing pages of my 1984 diary. I’ll spare you the details, and simply state that at that time in my life I could come up with a good many reasons to look down my nose at anyone who owned a ranch.

For one thing, as Raydoe had explained to me, ranchers had stolen the land they ranched. They stole it from the rightful Spaniards who had deeds to the property. Of course, Navajo and Apache explained the Spaniards had stolen the land from them, while Zuni, Hopi and other Pueblo tribes explained the Navajo and Apache had stolen the land from them. None of this mattered much to me, because poets own no land and sleep in their car. My superiority was shown because I had not stolen anyone’s land, while ranchers had.

For another thing, ranchers were despots who didn’t understand democracy. Back in New England, where I was from, the colonial farm was sixty acres, which meant a town could hold over a hundred farms, and this forced people to work together and encouraged democratic processes at Town Meetings. Even in the Midwest, where the average homestead had expanded to 120 acres, towns still held enough farms to encourage democratic processes. But in the arid, wild west 120 acres might barely feed a single cow on a bad year, and ranches had to be huge, bigger than entire towns back east, and rather than encouraging democratic processes they encouraged despotism. Ranchers were downright European, in their king-like attitudes. Back east a blacksmith had to serve many farmers, but out west a rancher might feel he needed his own blacksmith. He needed his own cook, his own accountant, his own this and his own that, even sometimes even his own congressman. He needed to own everything, as absolute dictator of his domain, which was utterly unlike democracy and a terrible backsliding from the spiritual principles etched in the Constitution of the United States. In other words, to be a rancher was like being a communist, in my poetic opinion. A few ranchers might be spiritual, and be enlightened monarchs like King Charlemagne of France, but others were besotted by power, and became mini-Stalins and mini-Hitlers. As a poet, I had no such power, which made me superior.

In other words, from day one I thought I was Quincy Phlabutt’s superior, even as he lifted his regal nose and made it obvious that he felt he was superior to me. This made me wonder. How could he fail to notice my obvious superiority? My Sherlock Holmes side got to work.

One obvious thing was that, although Quincy might have a Caucasian last name, he looked more what Raydoe called “Indio” than many Navajo. I’d noticed some Navajo had brown hair with blond streaks, but Quincy’s was jet black with a blue shine to it. Some Navajo got teased by others for growing bushy Spaniard mustaches, but Quincy’s attempt at a mustache was a slender line of wisp, like a thirteen-year-old’s.  Sherlock had some explaining to do.

I did some calculating, and decided, if the first Phlabutt rancher arrived in the 1880’s, Quincy was likely a great-grandson.  While the original eldest son might have inherited the ranch like a European king inheriting a kingdom, Quincy was more likely the issue of younger sons who inherited little but a rancher’s imperious attitude. The younger son might have married an Indian, and indeed Quincy looked like his mother, grandmother, and even great-grandmother might have been Indian, but perhaps he received advantages and privileges from his great-grandfather, including a better education, which made him appear a cut above the rest, a rancher’s son with a rancher’s imperious attitude, even though he was merely a manager at a Fatty Burgers.

I recognize it was nervy of me to assume so much about a person I didn’t know. I confess my nervy assumptions to you, to show you the calculations occurring in a whirring, hyperactive poetic brain, as the poet enters a situation where, in Truth, he knows next to nothing.  I should hasten to add that, concluding such conclusions, though you know next to nothing, also includes the strategy you decide to employ, dealing with the situation you assume exists.

Basically, I plotted to be obsequious with Quincy, as I walked into Fatty Burgers for my first day of training. I would hit him full blast with my disarming and ingratiating charm. To my surprise, it was easy to do. In terms of the small universe made up of managers of Fatty Burgers, Quincy was a brilliant star. It was easy to flatter him because I was amazed at his ability.

For example, one management-job involved, at the end of a shift, removing the three cash register drawers, counting up what each held, and arriving at an accounting of the shift’s gross profit, which would be used against an estimate of expenses and arrive at a net profit. I knew all about such stuff, as I had to learn such stuff to pass my A-level exam in Economics in England, but this did not mean I liked math or was particularly fast when it came to adding up numbers. I could add, but I tended to be very careful and worked at the plodding pace of a turtle. Quincy was a rabbit, by comparison. As he added on the calculator his fingers were a blur, and he could accomplish in five minutes what took me an hour. He was amazing, and I told him so, and saw a brief and genuine smile flash across his face as I flattered him, but then his sternness reappeared, and he told me there was no excuse for me taking an hour to do what could be done in five minutes.

If I could put myself back in that time, I would offer a friendly rebuttal. For example, I can whip off a sonnet in five minutes, where others might be hard pressed to correctly produce a sonnet in a month. Should I tell them there is “no excuse” for their slowness?

At the time I simply nodded, and told Quincy I’d try to be as fast he was, “counting the drawers.” And I really did try. But I couldn’t come close to matching his skill. He was my superior.

In other areas his superiority could be questioned, especially concerning how to treat employees and customers. Although our management manual held certain written genuflections about how employees should be treated with respect, and how the customer should be treated like they were always correct, Quincy seemed to feel this was put in the manual for show, and Fatty Burgers didn’t really mean it. Quincy felt employees should be payed as little as possible for as much work as possible, while customers should be charged as much as possible for as little product as possible. This was close to gospel, for Quincy.

I begged to differ. I believed there was a reason, outside of Quinsy’s capitalistic reasoning, to go the extra mile for both customers and employees. I struggled with my poetry to say what the reason was, but it was the same reason I was kind towards Quincy, even though in some ways he was a horrible person, only looking to exploit others, even to the point of ripping-off both customers and employees. Even as Quincy rolled his eyes and sighed about my ineptitude, I was poetically rolling my eyes and sighing about his lack of spirituality.

In terms of principles, we were a clash of giants, but in fact we were small people in one of the more remote fast-food joints on earth. Yet clash we did. Almost from the first minute we met we were manifesting a difference of opinion, namely: What matters most? People or profits? Who should you care more for, numbers, or your customers and employees, and even your boss?

Right off the bat I manifested a completely different style of management. Quincy tended to stand with his arms folded, observing, and occasionally pointing out things that needed to be improved upon. I was more of a hands-on guy, who wanted to work elbow to elbow with my staff. Quincy seemed a little taken aback by my willingness to immediately roll up my sleeves and plunge into doing the more servile jobs, but I simply told him New Mexico’s Fatty Burgers were different from California’s, and that I wanted to get a “feel” for what the differences were. Quincy shook his head very slowly, as if in disbelief, but he let me go at it.

This in turn introduced me to the staff, and the simple jobs they did.

None of the tasks at a fast-food joint are particularly hard; the process of preparing a burger and fries and a drink has been broken down into simple steps even a child could do; the trick was to do it faster and faster and faster, in a lunch rush, and I was always amazed by how things could go wrong. A small glitch, such as forgetting to refill a ketchup bottle, could throw a wrench into the mass production of burgers, and a pile of incomplete burgers would swiftly form a backlog, as swearing people rushed about seeking ketchup. Quincy would frown at such blunders and make it very clear such mistakes were not acceptable and would not be tolerated, whereas I tended to laugh, and find more ketchup, and remedy the chaos.

When I had time to think about it, (which wasn’t often, as there was lots to learn), I decided it was safest to allow Quincy to keep his rancher’s role as chief despot. A king likes to feel he is in charge of policy. But I felt the real shaker and mover of policy was the court jester.  When some glitch in policy (like an empty ketchup bottle) caused a shambles, it was often the jester who first pointed out the shambles, making a joke of it, and who suggested a change of policy. Jesters had to utilize tact, making light and avoiding blame, or they’d get their heads chopped off, but kings found it useful to have one in every throne room. I felt I could see a way to make a poet useful in the court of Quincy the king.

 As a worker I knew the job sucked, but I had learned the job was more fun if you understood all were in what sucked together, and together worked as a team, and together dealt with the amazingly non-stop examples of unforeseen botched-plans with good humor and tolerance. Quincy typified bad humor and intolerance, and it was no surprise to me I was immediately more popular. But Quincy stated good business had nothing to do with popularity. It was about making money.

One thing that Quincy did irked the hell out of me. There was a “management tool” within the workings of the Fatty Burgers cash-registers, which, if you typed in the secret management code, would print out a slip of paper which held a number which supposedly stated whether you were being efficient or not. Basically, it added the number of dollars you had raked in selling burgers the prior five minutes, and compared it with the number of dollars you paid out paying employees. I am not at all certain what the actual break-even point for Fatty Burgers was, as there were other expenses to consider besides labor, but I did notice that, at four dollars raked in for ever dollar spent on labor, Quincy stood serene, with his arms folded, but if that number began to drop towards three dollars raked in for every dollar spent on labor, Quincy became increasingly agitated, and then would abruptly blurt, to an employee, “Take a break!” The employee would “punch out” to take a break, which meant their break was time they were not paid for, so of course the numbers Quincy was focused upon leapt in a favorable direction, even sometimes to a number over making four dollars for every dollar you paid out, at which point Quincy would smile and fold his arms as if hugging and caressing himself.

To a poet like me such a focus seemed stupid. But, as it would have been unspiritual to call a Quincy stupid, I perished the thought, and did what poets do, which is to seek a synonym for, “stupid.” I liked the word “crass”. Quincy seemed crass, for two reasons.

The first reason was that the number on the cash register readout might be an anomaly, produced by some empty ketchup bottle briefly slowing the mass production of burgers, and once that problem was solved production would surge. The last thing you wanted to do, in such a situation, was to yank a worker from the production line, for that would create a whole new problem.

The second reason was that I felt it might be in some way illegal to sit down workers without paying them. It had to do with the concept of “minimum wage”, which in 1984 had been stuck at $3.35/hour for a long time, though inflation meant $3.35 could buy less and less. I knew how frugal I had to be, paid such skimpy wages. To pay less seemed a sort of crime, but Quincy was committing this crime with impunity.

To me it seemed that, if Quincy asked a person to come and work from an hour before noon to an hour after noon, he should pay them for the two hours they were present, but he would sit them down for a half hour before lunch and a half hour after, both breaks “off the clock”, and only pay them for an hour for the two they were present. In effect the employee was paid $1.67 an hour, which seemed a flagrant violation of the minimum wage law.

Yet one thing I liked about Gallup in 1984 was that people tended to dismiss rules and regulations imposed by outsiders. Some did not bother getting license plates for their cars. Why bother? Cars ran just as well without them. And I had learned I had best be on guard at spot-labor jobs, for why should anyone pay me $3.35 an hour, if I would work for less? You needed to be careful, whether you were an illegal alien or a flat broke American poet desperate for work, for people might flash a twenty dollar bill at you, offering it for a job that later might turn out to take ten hours, which would mean you’d agreed to work for only $2.00/hour.

This exploitation was one of the few things I could become hot headed and political about, but the fellows waiting with me for spot labor with me at the unemployment office had not been impressed by my zeal. They were used to grinding poverty and to being exploited and seemed to think I was being a big cry-baby to make a fuss. But I did notice they themselves seemed pretty careful making the initial deal, and if someone flashed a twenty they wanted to know how long the job should take, but, once a deal was a done deal, they were pretty stoic about simply working until the job was done.

Having suffered working for less than minimum wage myself, the last thing I wanted to do was do the same thing to others, but Quincy didn’t merely ask that I do it; he demanded. If the imaginary number produced by the cash register slipped from 4 towards 3, I simply must sit an employee down, unpaid, on a break.

If I had not wanted my ex to become an exex, I might have told Quincy where he could stick his stupid statistics. But, because I wanted my ex to become an exex, I gritted my teeth and was a good, little “management trainee”, and swallowed the feces clotting my throat, and did what I was told. But I felt ashamed for doing it and tended to go visit my employees while they were on break, partly to gain feedback, and partly to apologize for being such a cheap bastard.

This introduces a glorious subject, much richer than the subject of Quincy.

Quincy might have wanted to be the center of my universe, but poets (or at least American poets) seem to gravitate towards the masses. Bosses may demand more attention, but the run-of-the-mill are far more numerous, and to a poet hold much more variety, interest, and beauty. A boss may be worthy of respect, like a big tree in the vista of a sunrise, but a tree is not the entirety of a sunrise, and a lone tree cannot compete with the magnitude of the rest of the vista.

The first employee to impress me was Toonya, which was short for Petunia. She was about as opposite Quincy as a soul can get, female where he was male, and the epitome of pity. She had amazing eyebrows that slanted down like a pleading dog’s, at either side of her forehead, and which filled her face with sympathy even when she was relaxed. I found her expression slightly unnerving, because, if I wasn’t feeling at all grumpy, I wondered: What she was being so sympathetic about? I had the feeling her heart was brimming with pity, as if she looked out upon a world she felt sorry for. But something about such pity holds an unspoken request; it asks you to please, please, please stop. And I wondered, “Stop what?” What was I doing that was so pitiful?

Toonya didn’t say. She seemed the antithesis of a militant feminist, and would never demand or complain, and was submissive to a fault, and so of course Quincy felt no fear of excessively making her punch-out and take breaks. It seemed to me she spent more time on the premises of the Fatty Burgers than many others, yet was paid less, and that just didn’t seem right, especially as she was so kindly. I think just the way she looked at me made me feel embarrassed about being such a cheap bastard, which seemed to be something her pity felt sorry about. Not that she spoke a critical word. She didn’t need to. Her kindness and sympathy made me do a cross examination of myself. I was my own detective grilling myself as a suspect, under hot lights.

Toonya had long, straight, black hair loosely tied as a pony tail well down her back, and skin the color of honey, and I would have guessed she was Hispanic, but, when not in the silly Fatty Burgers uniform, Toonya dressed in the fashions of the older Navajo women, though fairly young herself. She wore long skirts of shiny fabric, dark blue or dark green, pleated and down to her ankles, and long-sleeved, black blouses of what looked like velvet, and sometimes a white-and-black or white-and-brown shawl with patterns like a Navajo blanket. So I figured she was Navajo, and my Mutt brains went to work at the hopeless task of figuring out what a Navajo was.

To me such mental gymnastics always seemed a little like trying to see with your ears, or to determine what particular color a rainbow was, but I suppose an outsider is always attempting to put vastness in a nutshell. (Some even say that is the purpose of poetry.) However, Toonya quietly shattered even the few preconceptions my baffled brains had been able to gather about “cultural attributes” of the Navajo.

For one thing, like most Native American tribes, the Navajo had been through hell and had to learn to live without expecting much mercy. How could they then produce a female so brimming with apparent mercy, pity, and sympathy? For another thing, the Navajo struck me as tough, and stoic, and able to endure pain without pleading, and didn’t even like using the word “please” (because it made one a beggar). Yet something about Toonya’s eyebrows did beg; they begged me to stop being a cheap bastard. I couldn’t really explain it, but they doubled down on the forbidden word “please”, and silently asked me to “please, please, please stop,” like the voice of a good angel sitting on my right shoulder.

She was such a contradiction it made me laugh, for she was stoicism gone haywire. She was like a brave never flinching midst a Sundance ordeal. She was stoic in her ability to never lift a finger to strike back at a capitalist like Quincy. Instead her amazing eyebrows showered the lout with pity. When I watched her my laugh burst out of me against my will, often at the oddest times.

Early in my training I was rushing about in my “hands on” manner, attempting to learn the details of every job done by every employee, and, with the lunch rush over, this involved various “restocking” and “clean up” tasks. I had already refilled every ketchup bottle, which emptied the huge container, (a big foil bag of ketchup with a plastic spigot in a carboard box), we used to refill bottles, so I also replaced that container with another big box from a back room.

With future ketchup-based fiascos averted, I went rushing out to avert future trash-based fiascos, which occurred when the trash containers became full and overflowed, which disturbed the aesthetics of dining. Customers don’t like to eat knee-deep in burger wrappers and fry boxes, which makes emptying the trash a big deal. However, in the middle of a rush nearly everyone is too busy to empty the trash; a manager could perhaps free up thirty seconds of his work force’s time and send an employee dashing out to remove a filled bag and replace it with an empty one. Therefore, to avoid trash fiascos, I was implementing a trick I had learned in California. It was to simply place spare trash bags under the bag currently in use. Then, when the bag currently in-use was filled, the employee rushing out to empty that bag did not need to go to a back room for a new bag but could use a new bag right under the old bag. This simplistic idea was part of my “hands on” approach, whereas Quincy tended to just fold his arms and say, “check the trash”, and only occasionally freed an arm to point out the window at wrappers that blew about the parking lot, demanding someone go out and chase them down.

As I rushed out to the area of booths where customers sat, with my arms loaded with trash bags, I saw the booths held no customers, but did hold Toonya, serenely sitting in her traditional garb. She was not in uniform because she was not working, and later I discovered she had dropped by to pick up her paycheck. She was chatting with Splendor, who wore the fashionable Navajo girl-garb of 1984: Blue jeans and a tight, black t-shirt.

Splendor was militant, and initially hard to like. She was nearly as tall as I was, with skin the color of my deeply tanned Caucasian skin, and had curly brown hair like mine, of about the same length, though we styled our hair differently. Mine was an attempt to be parted and flattened, whereas hers was a sort of afro of big ringlets. In some ways we could have been brother and sister, but she was Navajo and I was Mutt.

Splendor usually looked critical, as if she had a headache, but Toonya had her tamed. Toonya sat with her hands folded in front of her, nodding and sympathetically listening to Splendor complain about something, and Splendor was relaxing from her usual irate expression into a more peaceful sadness and resignation, sitting with her chin in a palm held up by an elbow.

The two women made a pretty picture, backlit by the big window to the parking lot, with the light shining off the Formica surface of the table. To me they seemed strangely reminiscent of an impressionistic picture of ballet dancers relaxing, by Degas. A happiness I felt surge in me made me laugh. Both girls turned to look at me after I laughed, and I immediately felt a little awkward for laughing. Not that I could explain myself. Maybe thirty-six years later, I now have the time to attempt it. But at the time I was in a hurry, and it is hard for poets to explain why they laugh; that’s why they write poems.

To be honest, I laughed because they were beautiful, but didn’t feel I could be that honest. My simple act of laughing had made Splendor rear up slightly, reverting to her usual pose of being indignant, which made me feel a little like the sinister, black-wearing men in top hats who lurk around the periphery of Degas paintings of beautiful dancers.  At age thirty-one I well aware how swiftly admiration can be corrupted by lust, so I was not about to tell the women I laughed because their beauty made me happy. Instead I continued on to a trash receptacle near them, desperately groping through my empty skull for something I could say. I looked at Toonya even as I worked, and her sympathetic, inquiring smile made me feel better than Spendor’s glower, and the words that popped out of my mouth were, “Toonya, I’ve been wondering something. Does it bother you to be put on breaks?”

“Oh no! I like breaks!”

“Even though it means you are off the clock, and not making any money?”

“Money?’ She laughed lightly, as if I was being silly. “No, I don’t worry about that.”

“You don’t?”

“No. I like working here and I like taking breaks here, because it gets me out of Cottonwoods. Cottonwoods gets dull before Little Christmas.”

“Little Christmas?”

Splendor softly groaned and looked like I was especially stupid, and, after rolling her eyes,  she somewhat scornfully and intrusively explained, “Little Christmas is what you Belaghana call Thanksgiving.”

“Oh! Forgive my ignorance. I never knew that.”

Splendor looked at Toonya and, a bit mockingly, repeated, “’Forgive my ignorance’. Don’t he say that like people talk in the movies?”

Toonya nodded with round eyes sympathetically at Splendor, and then turned and nodded sympathetically with round eyes at me. A bit lamely I added, “Well, I can’t help it. I’m new to the area and that makes me ignorant. Is Cottonwoods the town you are from?” Both women nodded. I continued, “And a Fatty Burgers is better than Cottonwoods?”

Toonya looked up and to the right and thought about it. Then she smiled and decided, “Home is home, but sometimes I like it here. It’s nice and warm, on days it’s cold at home.”

“Your house is cold?”

“Unless we’re cooking.”

Splendor added, “And her home is not a house. It’s a Hogan.”

“A Hogan?”

Splendor explained, “One big room with dirt floors and a hole in the middle of the ceiling to let the smoke out. No electricity. We’re trying to get electricity in Cottonwoods but the Tribe won’t help ‘cause we’re outside the Reservation, and the state won’t help ‘cause were officially squatters, though we’re fighting to get that changed. Cottonwoods has been there a hundred years.”

Though Splendor still looked cross, I was aware she was opening up, volunteering information. I looked out the window and said, “Well, isn’t that something. I didn’t know that either.” Then I laughed again and met their eyes. “Well, thanks for educating me. Be patient. I’ll learn eventually.” Then I hurried off.

As I returned to the work area Quincy was scowling at a clipboard. He informed me, “You haven’t done the post lunch inventory.”

A bit defensively I said, “Actually I glanced it over, but put off filling it out until now.” I took the clipboard from him and began jot down numbers off the top of my head.

Quincy’s brow clouded with disapproval. “Never put that job off.” Then he added, “Can you explain why we’re down a box of ketchup and a box of trash bags in the storeroom?”

This necessitated me explaining what I’d been up to, in terms of ketchup and trash bags, but rather than praising me the slightest for my initiatives, he explained, “You have to watch for missing boxes. Employees will steal stuff to use at home.”

I nodded.

Quincy glanced at the clock, and then added, “You’ve worked into your break time. I hope you know that, if you do that, you’re not allowed to extend your break to make up for the time you worked.”

“No. I didn’t know that. Thanks for telling me. I’ll go on break now. And Oh, by the way, have we got a folder holding the applications of the people we have working for us?”

Quincy looked wary but didn’t ask me what I wanted the applications for. “Current employee’s applications are in the blue “hired” folder next to the red “applicants” folder,  above the desk.”

One thing I liked about Fatty Burgers was that management ate for free. I hurried to make myself a quick Triple-Big-Burger with extra Cheese, Bacon, Lettuce and Tomato, and then wolfed it at “The Desk”, which was in a tiny room crammed with clipboards and folders in the back. As I ate, I quickly scanned through the applications in the blue folder; it held all the employees we had for four shifts. There were only around twenty-two for a seven-day week, and I noted eight were from Cottonwoods. I gobbled this information with the same speed I wolfed my Triple-Big-Burger, seeing it as part of my training.

My training involved working ten hours, through the lunch, dinner and closing shifts, and I also worked weekends, so I was getting heaps of overtime and making more money than I’d made since I lived in South Carolina. Some weeks I made $325.00, before taxes, which was absurdly good money for a penniless poet in those days, but when I made it back to Raydoe’s little trailer in the campground I was exhausted. My mind felt like a wasteland which held no poems. Instead my brains were assimilating masses of new information. Sometimes I’d find my tired brains thinking about the backroom stock of little, brightly-colored cardboard containers for French fries, but other times I’d find myself assessing employees.

I always found assessing employees a little troubling, for it often involved the faces of beautiful females floating through my head, much like way the face of a new girlfriend drifts across your mind when you’re falling in love. Now that I’m safely thirty-six years into the future I can say, yes, I was falling in love, though not in any way likely to result in marriage or anything more significant than appreciation.

At the time recalling the faces of females didn’t feel safe, and often troubled me, especially when it involved more than one female’s face. I was very stern with myself, and believed strongly that spirituality demanded that lust be corralled in a monogamous marriage, but lust had been able to make a jackass out of me on more than one occasion, which made me a little afraid of it. It might have been different if I was married, but I was alone and terribly lonely. As I slumped in Raydoe’s tailor, without even Raydoe to entertain me, the banshees of loneliness seemed to circle like sharks, and the last thing I needed was the faces of Toonya and Splendor drifting through my mind.

This was especially true if I wanted my ex to become an exex, or so I thought. She was the closest thing to a real marriage I’d ever had, and I was stubbornly clinging to the hope that, if I was faithful to her even as she was unfaithful to me, she would understand how noble and superior I was, awake to the error of her ways, and arrive weeping to beg my forgiveness, which I would magnanimously grant. (In actual fact she likely would have felt such behavior was so demeaning that she would rather have died first, but I clung to my hopes.) But I did notice something odd. Even when I tried to picture her face, I couldn’t even remember what she looked like.

This broaches the subject of a poet’s inner world, which I had to put up with even when I recognized it was unintelligible to most people, and psychologists might call it crazy. I had to put up with it because I was stuck with being a poet.

It would be all well and good if a poet’s inner world could be dismissed as sheer imagination, (as many psychologists attempt to do), but such visions involve too many uncanny coincidences to be dismissed. For example, perhaps, if you are a poet, you will be writing about someone you haven’t seen in ages, and just then the phone will ring, and that very person will be on the line. I’d seen many other examples, and I long thought such semi-psychic events were some bizarre thing that only happened to me, but then I chanced upon Mark Twain’s “Mental Telagraphy” and “Mental Telagraphy Revisited”, and became aware such events were a sort of occupational hazard, faced by writers.

Why are they a hazard? Because you have no control over them. They happen when they happen, not because you make them happen. You can’t make the phone ring by writing about someone who hasn’t called. Most especially, you can’t force dreams, which really are nothing but your imagination, to come true. In terms of what you desire, the inner world is fairly useless. Desire, in fact, seems to end the ability. In other words, if your imagination is focused on hankerings, there are seldom results, but if your imagination is desireless, there are.

I was trying to figure out this difference, but it was hard for me to do, as it was basically a difference between imagination and imagination. What’s the difference? It is not a difference you would suspect a management-trainee at a fast-food joint would be concerned about. Yet, as I slumped in Raydoe’s trailer, exhausted and lonely after ten-hour-shifts, it was something I pondered.

Thirty-six years later I can see the difference between imagination and imagination I delt with was the difference between lust and love, and also between infatuation and active appreciation. However back then all four things blurred together as a mess in a poor, pathetic poet’s skull. Imagination was a slurry, an unrefined mix of gold and dross, and the temptation was to flush the entire imaginative mess down the toilet, as a denial of reality. And in fact to deny imagination in this manner was what some psychologists called “facing reality.” However, for a poet to deny imagination is to deny the essence of their very being. I couldn’t do it. I had to accept the bitter with the sweet and put up with the slurry invading my brains.

By age thirty-one I was no adolescent, and had groped if not grasped, and intellectually understood there was a difference between lust and love, and also between infatuation and active appreciation, but I was a long way from turning such intellectual understanding into anything I could use, in real life. In real life, after work, I was a poor management-trainee dealing with slurry in his skull.

The ability to differentiate the difference between imagination and imagination means little to people who have no imagination, but for a poet it can become all-out war. An inner war. If you survive your victory is something called “discernment”. But at this point in my life survival seemed unlikely.

In terms of the intellectual issue of lust versus love, I envied Raydoe, for he had Bonnie, and having a wife puts the issue of lust to bed. For him lust could be erased by being sated. But even with my ex refusing to be my wife, and my lust unsated, I still could identify lust easily, because it hits you below the belt.

The issue of infatuation versus active appreciation is less physical and was harder for me to come to terms with. Again, I envied Raydoe, when he was crammed in the trailer with Bonnie and two daughters, for they were so in-his-face there was no way he could avoid active appreciation. In such a situation infatuation is the last thing on your mind.

In a strange way the same trailer was even more crowded after Raydoe vanished, when I lived there alone, because I had to deal with all the people my poetic imagination was inviting in, even when they were unwelcome.

What I am about to describe will not make sense to sensible people living sensible lives, for they are not poets. But sensible people living sensible lives would die of dullness, if it weren’t for those who enliven their hard work with the solace of a hit song that plays on the radio in the background of their workplace, or a jester who makes them laugh on the job, or a choir that makes drab church less dreary. Sensible people are in fact beholden to those who are not sensible, because being sensible would be a reason to commit suicide, in and of itself.

How so? Because life isn’t sensible, for every life is based upon a bad deal that makes no sense. To wit: You are born broke. There is no way you can pay your way. If you were sensible, when an infant, you would simply confess you had no money to pay for milk and deserved to starve and die. And you, humble as you are, would agree your life had nothing to offer, and would agree you had no worth, because you were born broke, and you would agree to die, aborted because you had no money when you were born. But a rude poet called a mother disagreed and impolitely stuck her nipple in your mouth and filled you with nourishing milk you hadn’t paid for. The simple fact she did this deed seems to preclude her being admitted into any society of sensible persons. But in truth mothers dwell in a reality sensible people call nonsense. Poets are similar. (The milk of human kindness takes many forms.)

My nonsense involved sitting alone and zoning out, looking at a blank wall, or a blank sheet of typing paper, but seeing something other than blankness. People who gaze into crystal balls are not mysterious to me. I saw things. I called them “ideas”.

Some ideas were intellectual and had little or no heart; various theories would half-form and then be demolished by critical thinking, but at times the heart would creep into ideas as a sort of bias; a theory would be so attractive it fought the critical thinking; at this point the debate became more audible; the theory would be proposed by a nice voice and the criticism be spoken by a snide voice I wanted to dump cold water on. Often the theory revolved around what was moral and what was not, or why morality made sense even when it wasn’t profitable. At this point the nice voice was my idealism, and the snide voices became the voices of people who had mocked me over the years.

It was around this point the voices began to have faces, as I recalled the arguments of old foes who I respected even as I debated them. Old bosses, old buddies, old father-figures, and old girlfriends would all come wandering into the tiny trailer, to cross my mind. Many brought along memories, flashbacks involving vivid scenery. Even items in the scenery had symbolic import. And all this was on the typing paper before I wrote a single word, or on a blank wall that had no wallpaper. And it was at times like this Toonya and Splendor might vividly appear.

I felt I had to draw the line and cut short my musing. If I wanted my ex to become an exex I had no business dreaming of beautiful women from Cottonwoods. Instead I should type. I should finish my novel. It was my ticket out of a life where I had to work at demeaning places like a Fatty Burgers. I got down to business. I had an outline of the plot. What was next? Oh yes, the teenaged rebel Jeromy accuses his lover Iris of wanting to turn him into a banker driving a Cadillac, and to spoof her desires he buys a wrecked Cadillac from a junkyard, and arrives at the high school in the smoking wreck, and next he grandly denounces status symbols with a splendid soliloquy. I set my lip and went to work at clacking the keys of the old-fashioned typewriter.

If I was a true novelist I could have stuck to the plot, but even a novelist might find the work difficult after a ten-hour shift at a Fatty Burgers. For a poet, sticking to the plot is difficult even first thing in the morning, and when weary I saw, to my dismay, my mind produce Toonya and Splendor, unexpectedly, in my novel. What on earth? What were a couple of Navajo women doing among the student body of highschool on the coast of Maine?

I savagely tore the page from the typewriter and crinkled it into a ball, and then whipped the ball into the trash. I was at war with myself. Why couldn’t I make my mind behave? Why was I thinking of Cottonwoods, New Mexico when I was suppose to be focused on Muddekov, Maine?

The next morning I arrived at work for my fourteeth straight day of work, with dark circles under my eyes, not expecting any pity from anyone. Who can understand the suffering of a poet? Anyway, that morning I was unsure I even was a poet. I couldn’t write a single page that made sense. All veered off course into madness. Maybe I wasn’t a poet. Maybe I was just a management trainee, and not a very good one, at that.

In a desultory manner I looked over a sort of map that showed who would work at what “work station”, during the lunch rush. I felt a sort of pang when I saw Toonya wasn’t working. Not that she was a good worker. To be honest, she was steady but slow, but the rush hadn’t started, so all I desired was her eyebrows. She wouldn’t need to say anything. Any suggestion of pity would suit me.

I hadn’t yet been deemed knowledgeable enough to “schedule”, but liked to scan the conglomerations of workers who were supposed to work as a unity, in a lunch rush. Quincy did the scheduling, and he created combinations that made no sense at all, at least to me. I would never schedule like he scheduled.

Perhaps, educated by two times I worked at a Fatty Burgers in California, where most employees were somewhat immoral California teenagers, I had been educated in ways Quincy wasn’t. I could almost immediately recognize who was dating whom, and who had just cheated on whom, and who had just broken-up with whom. Even when I was not a manager I knew when it was wise to go stand between two people, to promote harmony during the lunch rush. Yet, for some bizarre reason known only to himself, Quinsy would schedule such people elbow to elbow.

What made even less sense was that, when Quincy’s scheduling created a problem, he said it wasn’t his problem; it was mine. He delegated the work of cleaning up his fiascos to me. He created two jurisdictions. His was “scheduling”, and mine was dealing with the mess.

I hate to suggest such a thing, but at times I had a sense Quincy would schedule people to work elbow to elbow with other people they hated, (and hated to a degree where they quivered just hearing the other’s person’s name), just to see how I would handle the problems he created.

And indeed, there can be problems. It is difficult for two people, who cannot stand each other, to unify and create a simple hamburger, topped by a blotch of ketchup and a slice of pickle, between the top and bottom of a bun.  Conflicting tempers can flare in a hot kitchen, and ketchup can be squirted in faces rather than on burgers.

If I had overseen scheduling I might have avoided scheduling a boy’s ex-girlfriend working next to his new girlfriend, but at times Sidney’s scheduling seemed to specifically aim at such unwise placements. Quincy had a frosty attitude towards human passion and told me that workers should show up on time for work and should work where and how they were told to work. But then he seemed to go out of his way to enflame passions, which undermined working in a cool and collected manner.

This did not merely occur in terms of romances. If we’d had a Hopi employee (we didn’t) I’m quite certain Quincy would have placed them next to the most militant Navajo he could find, in terms of the Hopi-Navajo Land Dispute, (which likely would have been Splendor.) If we’d had a Black Panther (we didn’t) he would have had them work next to a member of the KKK (we had none I knew of). Then, if chaos occurred, and I had to deal with the resultant heat in the hot kitchen, Quincy would have raised his palms in a protestation of his innocence, and would say it was “my problem, and not his”.

Two weeks into my training, I started to recognize my trainer had a strange attribute. He seemed to arrange the very behavior he disapproved of. It was as if there was certain behavior he did not allow in himself, or in his own life, or in his family, that he was curious about. He wanted to see it. He was a sort of voyeur.

This is a very odd thing to recognize in the person who is supposed to be teaching you how to behave. Sadly, I was used to such misbehavior. Hypocrisy was a terrible ailment in America in my time, and my own mother used to say, as if it was a joke, “Do as I say and not as I do.” But when your trainer says one thing and does another, what is his message?

 Of course, if you are a management-trainee you are not supposed to be thinking along such complicated, intellectual lines. You are supposed to be thinking about burgers and fries.  There were times I cursed my mind’s tendency to play the shrink, and to psychoanalyze innocent bystanders. Yet perhaps, because poets spend so much time in dreamlands, they tend to be “sensitive” to odd subconscious things, rather than burgers and fries. It wasn’t sensible, but I couldn’t seem to help myself. I, (not as the management-trainee Quincy thought I was, but as the poet I actually was), (not the Clark Kent but the Superman), felt a desire to end Quincy’s confusion. I was the psychiatrist and Quincy was my client.

Of course, it likely would have infuriated Quincy to hear I deemed him a quasi-psychotic individual with a split personality, half moral and half voyeur. Therefore, I kept my lips firmly buttoned. But I kept my eyes open. I had to, for the problems Quincy created would occur during my trainee shifts. And one good thing about such problems is that they swiftly bring your head down from poetry’s clouds.

As I glanced over the people scheduled I was glad to see Waz Leroy was on for eight hours, from before lunch until after dinner, for she was an older woman and an excellent worker.

When, curious about her, I had earlier glanced over her application at “The Desk”, I discovered she was another employee from Cottonwoods, and her full name was Wazituyoo Leroy. Later, when I asked her how she pronounced her first name, I heard it was pronounced exactly like, “What’s it to you”.

At the time I laughed and would have made a light comment, but something baleful in the look Waz shot me warned me to bite my tongue.

I would have then let the subject drop, and would have moved on to the subject of burgers and fries,  but Splendor was present, and she had heard me laugh. Young and fiery, she could not allow my laugh to go unnoticed. She proceeded to give me quite a lecture about my being an insensitive jerk. It was very informative, and Splendor seemed surprised that rather than being offended, I asked questions. The answers she gave was like having a door to a cellar opened and having daylight stream in.

As a general rule, I tend to detest militant females. I try to be polite, but I can’t help think, as they berate, that the Bible states it is better to sleep on a corner of the roof (which is the equivalent of sleeping in your car) than to endure a contentious female. However Splendor seemed the exception to the rule. Her scoldings were based on hard facts, more down to earth than most bitching suffragettes, and interested me to a degree where I wanted more. I asked questions. I imagine she also found my responsive questioning an exception to her rules, regarding chauvinist pigs.  We were, in fact, falling in love. It was a brief friendship, but genuine.

The lecture she gave was about what went into a good employee having the name she had, “Wazituyoo Leroy.” I think Splendor initially meant to shame “my people” for how they had treated “her people”, and was surprised I took no offence. I’m not sure why I didn’t. Splendor sure wasn’t showing any care about how “her people” treated “my people.” But for some reason the poetic gift God gave me short-circuited such comparison. I am very glad the failure-to-take-offence occurred.

I think maybe a poet sometimes is able to accept the fact “his people” are imperfect, and may have in fact  treated “other people” wrongly, because a poet himself tends to get abused by “his people.” Sometimes the “his people” are the poet’s own mother and father. Yet, despite a fair amount of grousing about imperfect childhoods, often poets turn right around and contradict themselves; a truism of poetry honors ones mother and father, despite their human shortcomings, which might not seem sensible and might even seem hypocritical, but turns out to be Biblical. Jesus Himself stated “A prophet is not respected in his hometown”, and his hometown promptly proved He was correct by becoming so enraged by his criticism they attempted to throw Him off a cliff and kill him three years ahead of schedule. Not that poets are necessarily prophets, but they do tend to feel unappreciated by the very people they write poetry for.

 In any case, if poetic impulses allow one to forgive mothers who abused, and instead allow one to be thankful for milk they received, perhaps a poet like me was able to forgive Splendor’s abuse and appreciate the milk-of-human-kindness she gave, which took the form of a wonderful description of all that went behind the naming of Wazituya Leroy as Wazituya Leroy.

I learned lots of people in a squatter community like Cottonwoods had a man’s first name as their last name, because the man turned out to be irresponsible. It did not matter if the irresponsible man was a member of the U.S. Cavalry in 1880 or a Hippy in 1969, they did not stick around to care for what they had created. The fatherless child was therefore given the absent father’s first name.

Before anyone shames the women of Cottonwoods for having children out of wedlock, I should point out European’s have the same naming practices. Swenson  means “son of Sven” and Robertovich means “son of Robert”.  A name can say who the father was, without ever saying anything about whether the father was (or wasn’t) man enough to care for the child he created.

In any case, Wazituya was once the small child of a single mother living in a dirt-floored hogan, with the foster father in her life her mother’s brother, and was called something else, when abruptly she was called “a truant”. She was failing to learn what the invaders stated she should learn, by speaking Navajo rather than English. The invaders showed up and stated she needed to go to school. School wasn’t for a few hours a day, from nine in the morning until three in the afternoon. Instead the little children were snatched from the Navajo homes and sent away to a Gulag to be reeducated, and they could go for months without seeing their mothers. The Navajo deeply resented this kidnapping, but had already fought and lost a war, and were in no position to fight another. However, when a bureaucrat arrived and, holding a pen over a piece of paper on a clipboard, asked for the child’s name, they might be given a rude answer, such as, “What’s it to you?” And that was what was written down on the paper, and was what the little girl was called for years at school. Because her mother died while she was at school, for years Wazituya didn’t even know what her real name was, nor did her real name appear on any official paperwork.

This is a sad story, and was why Splendor gave me a tongue lashing when I laughed. The origins of Wazituya’s name involved grim times which weren’t funny, but for me the history lesson was a revelation, like a door to daylight being opened in a darkness. I thanked Slendor profusely, which Splendor found very odd, and caused her to be rude, for she laughed right back at me. We continued chatting, and I was telling her my own school could be an awful place to be, at times, when Quincy arrived and wanted to know why we weren’t talking about burgers and fries.

I now see I was going through the process, with the help of Splendor, of having my preconceptions replaced by reality, which is actually the difference between active appreciation and infatuation. Hopefully this explains how I could grow fond of an employee even though she called me a jerk. It also explains why I sometimes worked with a preoccupied look, with my eyes far away. Quincy would then tell me to keep my mind on the job. Little did he know what a poet’s job actually is.

On this particular occasion I was sitting at “The Desk” taking a deep breath before my shift, feeling thankful Waz Leroy was going to help me for eight hours, when the old-fashioned phone on the desk jangled, and I lifted it from the receiver and heard the voice of Waz, sounding both sullen and curt. She told me she couldn’t work. She had to attend to her father’s funeral. Then the phone went dead.

I felt upset, and not merely because I’d lost my best worker. I went up front to inform Quincy, but when I did he shocked me with a scornful and derisive response. He scoffed, “Again? Her father has more funerals than anyone else on earth!”

I felt a sort of shock, and said, “He isn’t dead? Well, I guess that makes me a chump. I felt sorry for her.”

Quincy nodded, adding, “Employees think nothing of lying.”

“Well, I guess I’ve learned my lesson.”

That might have bee the end of my training, but Splendor had just punched in for a two-hour lunchtime shift, and she wheeled from the register to add to my education.  “Idiot,” she addressed me, “You know Waz is an orphan.”

“Oh, you’re right. I forgot that.”

“And don’t  you Beleghana call any old preacher ‘father?’ Navajo are the same with their elders. In our language, when an elder dies your father dies.”

Quincy intruded, addressing me and not Spender, “I’ve been down this road before with Waz. If you check the opituaries in the newspapers I can almost guarantee you there will be no mention of anyone passing away this past week in Cottonwoods.”

Immediately Splendor responded, to me and not Quincy, “The word funeral is like the word father. It just means a ceremony. Little Christmas is coming. Waz has cooking to do at home.”

Quincy informed me, not looking at Splendor, “Employees should honor the schedule.”

Spender told me, not looking at Quincy, “Don’t do that. Don’t schedule Waz right before Little Christmas. She cooks for all the Cottonwood elders.”

I was glad I had Toonya as a good example, for I found myself nodding in first one direction with my eyebrows sympathetic, and then in the other with my eyebrows sympathetic, but sympathy wasn’t dealing with my problem. I interrupted the argument the two were having (via me) by stating, “Well, it is obvious I have a lot to learn, but I am wondering something, Splendor. You are only scheduled two hours. Could you possibly work longer? Even right through dinner?”

I felt a queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach, as if I’d asked Splendor out on a date, and felt vunerable, because she might tell me to go jump in a lake. She scowled at me and then pouted. She looked down to the corner where two walls met the floor, and then up where the front picture window met the ceiling, and finally she gave me the slightest of nods.

I could have hugged her, and I suppose I beamed at her. “I can’t thank you enough.”

Quincy commented, “You are lucky. What would you do if she couldn’t fill in for Waz? You’d have to hire someone to replace her. What would you do?”

I laughed, “Well I’d be in a fix, no doubt about it. It’s pretty hard to hire and train people on such short notice. And I’ve noticed something odd about the applicants in the red, applications file. Either there is no phone number at all given, or lots of people have the same phone number”.  I turned to Splendor. “I’ve noticed all the people in Cottonwoods have the same number. If I called that number, who would I reach?”

She scowled and gruffly said, “Post Office.”

I nodded. “Interesting. Obviously I have more to learn.” Then I turned back to Quincy and told him, “In California, when folk didn’t show up for work, the management sometimes had to roll up their sleeves and pitch in. Looks like I’ll have to do that, to cover for Splendor as she covers for Waz. But if it gets too crazy I may need you to pitch in. Can you do that?”

Quincy looked down a long, frosty nose, and stated, “If I must.”

I said, “I am ever so grateful.” I did not mean to be sarcastic, but perhaps I was, slightly, for when I turned to get to work I noticed Splendor’s shoulders were shaking, and she glanced at me with an unexpected twinkle in her eyes. Then, as we worked through the lunch rush, often elbow to elbow, I had the definite sense I was falling in love. Little did I know it was the last time I’d see her.

Some sort of “altercation” involving “insubordination” occurred before I showed up for work the next day, and Quincy claimed he “fired” her, though everyone else told me, “Splendor quit.”

However before Splendor vanished from my life, during that final shift together, there was one final torture I needed to experience. It occurred during the height of the dinner rush, when she needed to hurry up front to take orders, and I was working making French fries at top speed in the back. I was enjoying the sound of her voice, as she said, “Double Big Burger, Large Fries, Large Cola,” and then there was the ruffling sound of a microphone being mishandled, and a harsh, male Hispanic voice stated, “Will the stupid Gringo please come to the front and talk to…” and then I heard more ruffling and Splendor’s voice say, “Gimmie that, Glahni.”

I knew the voice was my missing friend Raydoe’s, and dumped a load of hot French fries in the drainer to hurry to the front, and saw Raydoe glaring at Splendor, who was glaring back. As Raydoe saw me coming he announced, before I could even speak, “I am transferred to Tucumcari and will come get my trailer later. But I am sad to see you in that stupid uniform and working with Mulatto trash.” Then he wheeled away and stormed out. I glanced at Splendor and saw her glaring at the rude man, but also looking hurt, as her eyes met mine.

 I said, “That guy is so rude. But…what’s a Glahni?”

“A drunkard. He stunk of Garden Delux.”

I nodded. “Usually it’s beer. I share a trailer with him at the campground. Sorry he was so rude.”

“And I’m not mullato.”

I felt incredibly awkward, and what came out of my mouth was, “To me you are just Splendor”.

She pouted and insisted, “He is a very bad man.”

I nodded, but added, “Yes, sometimes. But other times he is different. He gave me a roof when it was raining. It’s hard to hate a guy after he does something nice like that.”

She continued pouting, and then glanced sharply to the side. I followed her gaze and saw Quincy was regarding us anxiously, biting his knuckle. When I looked back at her I saw her face was strangely softened. She said, “Some Glahni are like that. Two different people.”

I couldn’t help but laugh. “Exactly”, was all I could think to say.

She looked away from me, down at the keyboard, and mentioned, as an aside, “No orders.”

I looked around and stated, “Yes, the place seems to be emptying out. Guess the rush is over. Would you like to punch out?”

She nodded, and as soon as I said she could punch out, she turned away, but then I added, “And thank you for filling in for Waz. You really saved my bacon,” and she stopped in her tracks. She slowly turned around, and inquired, “Saved your bacon?”

I chuckled and explained, “Oh, that is a way people from back east have, of saying they got helped out. You know, the bacon is frying and you get busy with the toast and the bacon would burn, but someone turns off the burner or shifts the pan from the fire. You would have burned the bacon, left to your own devises, but some outsider steps in and saves the bacon.”

She thought about it, and then nodded, seemingly more to herself than to me, but then looked up and met my eye and said “I get it” and then her face gave me a beautiful gift. The face I had never seen smile smiled at me.

If this was a romantic novel, she and I would have married. If this was pornography, we would have had sex. But the fact of the matter was this was reality, and I never saw her again.

ARCTIC SEA-ICE –2021 Sea-Ice Maximum

It appears we have past the peak, and achieved our 2021 “maximum extent” in terms of sea-ice.

It is hard for Alarmists to get too excited about this peak, as it failed to set a new record-low high. This alone undermines the “Death Spiral” theory, which suggests we should see an accelerating decrease of sea-ice, due to a so-called “positive feedback”. Less ice was suppose to create warmer water, and warmer water was suppose to create less ice. ‘Tain’t happenin’. A “pause” is not allowed, according to the premise which the “Death Spiral” theory is founded upon.

On the other hand, it is hard for Skeptics to get too excited as well. A “pause” is not the same thing as a “turn-around”, and those expecting to see the arctic revert to higher levels of ice, as part of a “cycle”, want to see a “turn-around”, but have no higher levels of ice to point at.

However, as one prone to favor the idea of a “cycle”, I’ll note a few things Skeptics can point at, (not that anyone will heed).

One of the main reasons for the extent being higher than most recent years, this year, is that there is more sea-ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, and some of it is thicker than we have recently seen.

This particular sea-ice actually matters little, in terms of the minimum we will see next September. The Sea of Okhotsk will be ice-free by midsummer. It is like the Gulf of Saint Lawrence in that respect. Though it is included in sea-ice maximum totals, it is not truly arctic. However it’s sea-ice is one reason the “extent” totals in 1979 were so much higher than today’s. In the above map, the 1979 sea-ice extended right out to the string of islands which forms the Okhotsk’s outer boundary. Hmm. Perhaps we are seeing a “sign” of a return to 1979 conditions, when we witness thicker sea-ice, more widely spread, in the Okhotsk, at the end off winter. However don’t get too excited about a coming ice age. It will all be gone by July.

Another area that had far more sea-ice in 1979 was Barents Sea. In the NRL thickness map below, in 1979 the sea-ice would extend from just south of the southern tip of Svalbard to Norway, roughly along the line of 20 degrees east longitude.

One debate I’ve had with Alarmists involve whether Barents Sea was ice-free in the past, or only recently has become ice-free. I state William Barents could not have sailed where he did in the 1590’s, “discovering” Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, with sea-ice at 1979 levels. Furthermore, during World War Two, when the survival of Russia hung by a thread, and northern convoys were desperately necessary, any convoy attempted during the summer daylight met terrible Nazi attacks by air from Norway and by submarines, and even by what was left of the German Navy, and therefore the convoys had to take place in the dark of winter; (remember the freighters and their armed escorts were not icebreakers). Severe ice conditions like those that existed in 1979 might have stopped those convoys and changed the course of the war, but fortunately the waters were, if not entirely ice-free, at least passible.

The main “sign” that sea-ice in Barents Sea may be about to revert to 1979 levels is not yet a great increase in sea-ice, but rather a chilling of water entering the Arctic from the Atlantic, as measured by two arrays of buoys set up across the entrance region, as well as some drifting buoys set on the ice north of the ice’s edge, plus a few Argo buoys that drifted up from the Atlantic, and ships in the area. Also there was a bit of a media fuss about the east side of Svalbard becoming ice free (the west is usually ice free) and polar bears not breeding there, but the fuss hushed when both sea-ice and polar bears returned. The above map shows sea-ice back on the east side of Svalbard.

A third “sign” sea-ice might be hinting at increasing, to 1979 levels, has not been very evident at all. It would be sea-ice extending from Greenland to the north coast of Iceland. Very briefly last winter the sea-ice nearly extended all the way to Iceland, before east winds crushed all the sea-ice westward.

The return to sea-ice to 1979 levels would be called by some a “recovery”. I feel that is a bad choice of words, as “recovery” is usually seen as a positive thing, such as getting better after you’ve been ill, or escaping poverty after an economic downturn. In actual fact times of increased sea-ice, such as The Little Ice Age, tend to be times of hardship, while times of lower sea-ice, such as the Medieval Warm Period, have been kinder times, and used to be called “climate optimums.”

In any case, I’ve been pointing out that the “Death Spiral” is failing to spiral out of control since 2007’s low extent. The fact 2012’s extent was even lower than 2007 made me question my assumptions, and wonder of the “Death Spiral” might be a very slow spiral, and had me looking back in history for other examples of sea-ice levels even lower than in 2012. I began this study in earnest back when I started this blog in 2012. Over the past nine years I have found so many examples of open water in the past that it is obvious that Alarmists are not trying very hard to avoid “casting a blind eye”.

There is no good satellite data prior to 1978, but the scanty Nimbus satellite data showed surprising areas of open water north of Bering Strait in September, 1969, and in the pre-Satellite-Era logs of ships there is plenty of “shipboard data” describing open water in places where we now often see sea-ice. After nine years of combing old records it is apparent that what is lacking is not sea-ice, but the courage to challenge the political narrative. I myself can do so, for my income isn’t effected, and even if Google makes it hard to find my sea-ice posts with its search engine, and even if Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube make it hard to locate Global Warming skeptics, I can merrily proceed with telling the Truth, without fear of losing my academic grants or positions, for I have none to lose. And the Truth is that the “Death Spiral” has failed to spiral out of control, and the spiral theory has made a mess of things

However saying the same thing over and over and over again does get a bit monotonous, after the first decade or two. If people prefer to be deaf and blind, that is their choice. I’ll just turn to the wonder of watching. Sea-ice does what it does in the same manner clouds do what they do, free of shame, free of political correctness, free of politics, and utterly unaffected by cancel culture. (Perhaps this explains my bad grades in school; the view of clouds out the window held more beauty and truth than chalk on the blackboard.)

The current wonder has focused around a Aleutian Gale which wandered far north of its normal home, up through Bering Strait and into the Arctic Sea, to become a decent “Ralph” (Anomalous area of low pressure.) It’s isobars formed a tight gradient against high pressure towards the Atlantic side, creating a strong cross-polar-flow from Canada to Russia.

With gale force winds making every pressure ridge into a sail, the sea ice began to shift from Canada towards Russia.

I doubt I’m reading the above Naval Research Laboratory ice-movement-map correctly. If the sea-ice is moving at 30 cm/second, it translates to 1080 meters an hour, or a little more than a half a mile an hour. That would give us sea-ice moving around fifteen miles a day, and I remember (from when we had O-buoys giving their position hourly) the sea-ice moved faster than that in powerful gales. (Perhaps some reader can help me). But what I do know is that, even if the red area in the above map is only moving ten miles a day, it is ramming up against sea-ice moving much slower, or even standing stationary. If you have ten miles of sea-ice six feet thick crashing into a stationary object you’d have one big pile up, with six feet atop of six feet atop of six feet atop of…well, you get the picture. But apparently the pile ups don’t all occur at one spot, but rather in a manner more like an accordian, creating many pressure ridges, and spreading out the accumulation of sea-ice in a more dispersed fashion.

This creates a new dilemma (or wonder), for the spatial resolution of the satellites we use to determine sea-ice thickness is quite large; I think around ten km. A large pressure ridge is only around 100 meters across, even when it is many miles long, and smaller pressure ridges can be only ten meters across. Therefore we are asking a satellite with a spatial resolution of ten kilometers to “see” a feature as small as .01 kilometer. I fear many pressure ridges are unseen, and are not incorporated into the “thickness” maps, which of course effects the “volume” calculations. After all, when a gale compresses ten miles of sea-ice, that sea-ice does not vanish. Yet in some ways the compression can be “disappeared” from the records, if it is spread out among a great many smaller pressure ridges.

Besides creating pressure ridges, gales create leads of open water. In the past we’ve seen winter gales create amazing stretches of open water, in some cases a hundred kilometers wide. With air temperatures far below zero, they swiftly skim with new ice, which rapidly thickens. The newest ice looks nearly black, compared to the far thicker ice around it, and then it grows increasingly milky as it thickens. This is seen in infrared pictures when darkness rules, but when daylight first returns to the Pole I like to scan the first visual shots to look for such frozen-over leads. This year there are some narrow leads, but not as many big ones as I expected with this gale (so far.) (Bering Strait is to lower left corner.)

(I urge people to become familiar with this NASA site. It allows you to zoom in quite close, and helps people escape misconceptions regarding how fluid sea-ice actually is, and the changes it undergoes every summer.)

When a lead is created right next to a shoreline it is called a polynya, and the above shot does show some evidence a polynya formed on the northwest corner of Alaska, but has already fozen over. In fact the above picture presents me with a bit of a mystery. If the sea-ice is moving, where is it moving from? How can it move ten km without making a ten km lead of open water, or ten one km leads? Are there many small leads the satellite can’t see?

There are two different views about what the creation of wintertime leads may mean. The Alarmist view is that it creates stretches of thin “baby-ice” which will be easy to melt under the summer sun, creating areas of dark water which are better at absorbing heat, making the water warmer and hastening the melt. There is some truth to this view, but it needs to be blended with the Sceptic view. The Sceptic view suggests exposing water in the middle of winter allows the water to lose more heat and become colder, and also allows more ice to be formed more swiftly, and lastly that pressure ridges form where ice is weakest and can most easily be compressed, and many leads that freeze over later clap shut, crunching all the baby-ice into a piled up line of increased volume. I tend to think both “views” are happening, and sea-ice decreases or increases depending on which “view” predominates.

Usually such Pacific-born “Ralphs” weaken fairly rapidly, over sea-ice and without Pacific moisture to feed off, but this Ralph brought along its own feeder band, which shows clearly in the DMI isotherm map.

Usually storms move to the east along the arctic coast, but this Ralph moved west.

I expected it to weaken, but its feeder band grew more obvious the isotherm map. (Though milder than surrounding air, the “feeder band” is still well below freezing).

I assumed the feeder band would be used up, as it often is by the arctic night, which still has power even in the twilight of arctic dawn, and indeed the feeder band did fade, seeming to be spun outwards from the low towards Canada. I assumed the Ralph would then weaken. I was wrong. The Ralph persisted, wobbling west. However the cross-polar-flow broke down, as winds swung around. Behind the storm the sea-ice even had to turn around and move the other way, from Russia back towards Canada. In my mind’s eye I envisioned a lot of smashing and crashing must be going on. The Ralph proceeded across the Laptev Sea.

The isotherm map showed the warmth brought into the arctic has been frittered away. (Note weak Atlantic feature heading east even as Pacific Ralph wobbles west, in the map above.) The Canada to Russia flow has been replaced by a more traditional Pacific to Atlantic flow along the Transpolar Drift. This winter winds that support the Transpolar drift have been occasional, rather than constant. Lastly, note that the collapse of high pressure north of Greenland seems to suggest the cold air that was exiting the west of Canada is now reentering the east of Canada by way of Baffin Bay.

And the DMI temperature graph agreed that, after a spike of warmth, the Pole reverted to chilling.

As the Ralph reaches the Kara sea it is stronger than ever. Perhaps it is met by some weak low pressure coming the other way, from the Atlantic, but that is just me attempting to make excuses for what I can’t explain. The closest thing to a “feeder band” is some milder air being drawn north through central Russia by the storm, but it hasn’t made it to the storm and can’t be feeding it. High pressure is building in Canada behind the storm, as another Pacific storm crashes into East Siberia, and the two are creating a strong flow north in Bering Strait, but that Pacific air is a long way from fueling the Ralph.

I can see little reason for the Ralph to persist, looking at the isotherm map. It is time to confess my inadequacy. There are some arctic storms which I need to study; they seem too cold-cored and I can’t comprehend what fuels them.

The final map shows the Ralph finally starting to weaken as it loops in the Kara Sea. Behind it the winds are offshore and encourage the formation of polynyas, while ahead of it the winds are onshore and pile the sea-ice against the land. In terms of the “extent” graph, which everyone is paying attention to this time of year, this Ralph has made very little difference, as the area has gone from 99% sea-ice to 99% sea-ice. However in terms of the future, the storm may have changed they layout of the sea-ice, and there will be a lot to study in coming weeks.

One interesting aspect of the above map is the high pressure over Canada. It drove arctic air into the east of Canada even as the west experienced some relief, and now that cold air has come charging south to my neck of the woods, giving us snow squalls and sharply falling temperatures. It’s a bit humorous because only a few days ago everyone seemed to be looking west and hoping for the leftovers of a chinook. One should always be wary of the arctic in March. The North American map shows the unexpected sneak attack in the east.

Yet, returning to the Pole, we see new “feeder bands” in the isotherm map. An influx of Pacific air is pouring through Bering Strait, and a bulge of milder air is coming up through Central Siberia and just poking into the Laptev Sea. Often when an arctic outbreak affects lower latitudes you see the air leaving the Pole replaced by these feeder bands. The question I can’t answer is what sort of Ralph they will brew up, if any.

I bring up all this news about the most recent Ralph’s journey partially to demonstrate how much there is to wonder about, besides the yearly sea-ice maximum, which basically involves the Sea of Okhotsk and the Greenland and Barents Seas, and waters south of Bearing Strait. Everyone is actually paying attention to areas outside the arctic, as meanwhile the Ralph few pay attention to may have caused changes to the layout of sea-ice, up where the sea-ice minimum will have everyone focused, next September.

Personally I am trying to stay focused on the thickness and volume of the ice, which are subjects we don’t know that much about, due to the uncertainties I described earlier. At the moment temperatures are still very cold at the Pole, and even the influx of the feeder bands hasn’t (yet) spiked the temperatures that much. In the graph below freezing is the blue line way up at the top. We are far below that line. The red line is where we are and the green line is the place, on average, we should be. You can see we are very nearly normal.

My personal view is that having a Ralph roaring at the Pole, when temperatures are so cold, is more likely to both chill the water and increase the amount of ice than calm conditions would. I am intently watching the red “S” in the DMI thickness map, to see if it remains in the Central Arctic. It seems to have been nudged slightly towards Fram Strait by recent events.

However, to keep myself humble, I like to think back to all the arguing between Alarmists and Skeptics since 2007 about whether sea-ice is shrinking or growing. In essence both are wrong, for according to the PIOMAS volume model, we are exactly the same, if you cherry-pick the start date as late summer 2007. According to their “tend line” we have gone from nearly two standard deviations “below normal” to more than one standard deviation “above normal”, which seems a very fancy way of saying we’ve stayed the same.

In any case, it is no way to run a “Death Spiral”.

Stay tuned.

A PEBBLE

I get the feeling things have not gone as the denizens of the swamp planned. There are certain actions and reactions one is taught to expect in Revolution 101 class, certain counterrevolutions which should be predictable, according to the college professors and the intellectuals in salons. However human behavior is as easy to predict as the weather. You can make a good guess, but amazingly often you are wrong. Humanity is full of surprises; not only times people you expect-a-lot-from disappoint you, but also times people you completely underestimate shock you with brilliance.

In essence mankind is a chaotic system, and cannot be successfully predicted. The true governor is God, not some mortal on a throne. To attempt to order the teeming masses is like attempting to herd cats. For this reason it is best to tend to your own small corner, obeying an agreed-upon set of rules called “law and order”, and not to mind other’s business.

There is nothing more prone towards calamity than a government that thinks it knows more than its citizens, and that it should tell everyone what to do, and mind everyone else’s business. Yet there is always some busybody bureaucrat who feels he knows more about hair than hairdressers and more about bees than beekeepers and more about milking than milkmaids, who refuses to just leave people alone to do what they do better than he. The result is that power-mad bureaucrats make a mess of things, and also that the focus becomes power and control, rather than on getting things done. There is little milk and honey and everyone’s hair looks terrible.

The trouble arises because of vanity. Some people become puffed up and disrespectful of others. “Law and order” no longer is an agreed-upon set of rules, but an imposed-upon set of rules. Liberty is replaced by dictatorship. The Founding Fathers of the United States thought long and hard about such trouble, and devised a form of government wherein respecting others was built in, and no one person could amass the power to be disrespectful.

The current denizens (I will not call them citizens) of the Swamp are attempting to amass power, and also the ability to censor and cancel the views of others, to a degree that is tantamount to a coup, and the overthrow of the American Way. This revolution has been long planned, and carried out with stealth and evil ability and a great deal of dishonesty and hypocrisy, but in the end must have seemed too easy. And it was too easy. It was not expected to be so easy, which actually was the first wrench in the works of The Plan.

The counterrevolution which textbooks stated would occur led the denizens to expect violence which did not manifest, (or did not manifest in the violent way they expected), from a population which has bought a record-setting amount of guns and ammunition over the past year. The citizens were more patient and peace-loving than the denizens dreamed they would be, which immediately put the denizens in a very uncomfortable position. Rather than fight, they had to lead. All the preparations they had made for chaos were rendered useless, as they faced responsibility they were unprepared for.

I believe they were itching for a Civil War of a violent sort, and likely had all their strategies and speeches prepared, and were ready to blame “deplorables” and “bitter clingers” for all the chaos, while portraying themselves as peace-loving bringers-of-order. Instead they find themselves ensconced in victory that has come too early, and, worst of all, with no foe to blame. Forced to reveal their policy in all its naked ugliness, all can see how inept, bankrupt, ill-conceived and foolish their high-sounding aims actually are.

Actually they have made a grave tactical blunder in a new sort of Civil War. They have been drawn out of hiding. Their camouflaged cannons have rolled into plain view. They can’t pretend to be other than what they are. Too many know about Jeffrey Epstein’s island, and who went there. Too many know about Hunter Biden’s enormous paychecks for doing nothing. The flagrantly dishonest press can publish all the falsehood it wants; people are increasingly seeing through the bunkum.

Actually this is a strategy Donald Trump clearly states in “The Art Of The Deal”, but apparently the denizens didn’t read the book. They exposed more and more of their cannons, and the voters didn’t like what they saw. Although polls were falsified, it must have been obvious to the denizens that Trump was increasingly popular, and was going to win reelection, so they prepared to use falsified election results. However so great was the landslide in favor of Trump the falsification became desperate, and obvious, becoming so blatant it too was exposed. The denizens were basically naked, emperors without clothes.

In fact it is said (by those who claim to know such things) that “exposure” is God’s purpose, in this gruesome time of being led by an unelected president.

“Exposure” has an odd effect on the human psyche. As long as one claims a sort of Right To Privacy, they have no great need to even think about the the back rooms where they “do what they don’t confess.” One is intimate in private with their spouse in a way they’d never be in public, and feels comfortable doing so, but when one discover the baby monitor in their bedroom has been broadcasting to every other baby monitor in the apartment block, one blushes ruby. And if one can feel this embarrassment about perfectly legitimate love-making, how much worse it is when one’s sneakiness is illegitimate, and broadcast to the entire world.

King David abused his absolute power, committing adultery with Uriah the Hittite’s wife Bathsheba, and then basically having Uriah murdered by placing him in a situation he couldn’t survive in a battle, and David’s conscience didn’t seem to particularly trouble him until he was confronted by Nathan the prophet. Apparently David didn’t much care what people whispered about him behind his back; (people were always whispering things behind David’s back;) however when Nathan made him aware God disapproved, David understood he, (and therefore the entire nation of Israel), was in big trouble. The result was Psalm 51.

Basically Psalm 51 is David throwing himself on the mercy of the court of God, counting upon God’s attribute of being all merciful and eternally benevolent. However it also is a confession of sin, and not a confession made in privacy, either. It is “for the director of music”, which indicates it was a very public confession.

It is interesting to contemplate any denizens of the Swamp publicly confessing in such a manner. It is largely unimaginable. What they seem to be doing instead is accusing others, and demanding others confess, while hoping they themselves avoid scrutiny.

What this seems to show is that “exposure” does bother people. Even evil people want to be loved, and desire the cheering of crowds, even when they snicker about how they are fooling the people. “Exposure” is a situation wherein the people are not being fooled any more. Not that we can ever fool God, but atheists don’t worry about God (perhaps showing they are fooling themselves), but they do worry about what people are saying behind their backs. They will do desperate deeds to keep the Truth from becoming clear, not merely censoring Facebook, YouTube and Twitter posts, but actually killing people, (which may have been the fate of Jeffrey Epstein, who perhaps knew too much).

The demand that Truth be hidden eventually starts to have a debilitating effect. It is like demanding one cast no shadow. One can indeed cast no shadow by laying flat on the ground, but it is hard to get any work done when in that position.

Eventually the facade of Power starts to develop cracks. The very people who felt above the law start to face backstabbers, as evil eats its own. The governor of New York faces impeachment as the governor of California faces recall, and vultures and hyenas gather to replace them and all their appointments. Biden proclaims open borders yet the governor of Texas calls out the National Guard to close them. Pelosi wants the minimum wage raised to fifteen dollars an hour, but seven democrats break ranks to vote against her. The cracks increase.

One Truth which is apparent is that the election was fraudulent. Biden is not duly elected. In essence he is a usurper, and, if I may coin a word, rather than President Biden he should be called Usurpee Biden. Increasingly people are aware the Dominion voting machines were rigged, but there is a continuing effort to cover up this ugly truth, and to hide all evidence.

But evidence keeps popping up. Recently a minor recount in New Hampshire left people scratching their heads.

New Hampshire has a huge house of representatives, with 386 representatives to be elected. In the last election one seat was won by a Republican by only 24 votes, and the Democrat apparently didn’t get the memo not to look at the vote-counting too carefully, for he demanded a recount. The recount revealed the Republican had roughly 300 uncounted votes. But, because the recount involved three other seats, (which would not have been recounted ordinarily because the Republicans won those seats handily), and it was noted those Republicans also had 300 uncounted votes. Hmm.

People thought this coincidence should be investigated. At first it seemed unlikely, for New Hampshire law allows only one recount, but after debate it was decided the investigation was not a recount, but a study. So the Dominion machines may be looked at. Then, if these particular machines prove faulty, other machines in New Hampshire may be looked at. This tiny pebble may be the start of something bigger.

Many cynically say that great pressure will come from Washington to halt any further investigation, but such hushing-up is evident to all onlookers, and represents more cracks in the façade. The denizens of the Swamp are up against a mighty foe, called Truth. And Truth doesn’t even need to raise a finger; the denizens are fighting themselves. And a pebble can topple a Goliath.

ARCTIC SEA ICE –Reverse Flow–

As we approach the sea-ice maximum an interesting Pacific gale wandered north through Bering Stait, even as an interesting couple of gales sunk southeast from a more northerly-than-usual track into the westernmost reaches of Russia south of the Kara Sea. This completely reversed the cross-polar-flow on the Pacific side, from Eurasia-to-Canada to Canada-to-Eurasia.

One interesting thing about this reversal is that, far to the south in North America where I live, places like Texas, which saw a shocking cold wave when the flow was Eurasia-to-Canada, are seeing far more balmy weather now the flow is reversed, and this surge of spring-like mildness is going to reach even Montreal by Thursday. People in Siberia may not appreciate this flow, but North America does.

A second thing I’ve noticed about the reversal is that, at least at first, the air is not exported south into Canada, but hasn’t made it across the Pole to be exported down into Russia either, so the Pole itself is unable to import warm air, and has achieved some of its lowest temperatures of the winter. (red line) It has even touched normal (green line) far below freezing (blue line.)

The temperature map accents how cold the Central Arctic has become.

One interesting thing about reversing the winds in this manner is that it puts the sea-ice under enormous stress, opening leads and piling up pressure ridges. At thirty below, the leads do not remain open water for long. The conditions, in my mind, seem good for increasing the thickness in the Central Arctic. In calm the cold must work its way down through four to fifteen feet of ice to reach water it can freeze, but open leads freeze immediately.

For the best guess of thickness I use the DMI modeled thickness, basically because it is easiest; I have little spare time to go to other sites. But when I do I am always amazed by how greatly the thicknesses vary. Certain features exist on some maps that appear on no other maps. For example, the “S” of thick ice (red) on the DMI thickness map appears on no other maps. I am using the “S” to get a rough idea of the Transpolar Drift, but sometimes wonder if it even exists.

To give an example, (only once), of the variety we are dealing with here are 4 other “modeled” maps of sea ice, (nicely rotated to match by Glen Koehler at Nevin’s “Sea Ice Forum”).

It should be obvious from this that sea-ice thickness is not an exact science, and can lead to endless quibbling. However if you are into that, and have a thick skin and can withstand some flagrant Alarmism, I highly recommend Nevin’s various sea-ice forums, for when you get that many people cherry picking various graphs and maps to prove their bias, you somewhat accidently get a balanced view, (which is the reason for Freedom of Speech and for Freedom of the Press, and why censorship is such a bad idea.) I got the above maps from this particular thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3299.1300.html

With thicknesses in doubt, I hope you can see why I take “volume” graphs with a grain of salt. The DMI graphs show volume’s rate of rise slowing slightly.

At this point in the ice-growth-season the “extent” graph has some odd quirks which can drive both Alarmist and Skeptics crazy, and the “maximum” tends to be a big debating point. (Actually it means less than how sturdy the sea-ice is in the Central Arctic, but never mind that.) I was quite surprised to see it keep rising, for the sea-ice pushed out into Barents Sea by that side’s northeast gales were pushed out into 12-15 feet seas which tends to batter and melt ice even when the water is nearly as cold as the ice is. Also on the Pacific side, that gale’s south winds, despite curving off Siberia and being very cold for south winds, were crushing the ice north and should have reduced extent. Yet the extent graph refused to dip.

This graph leaves some Alarmists deeply depressed, because the last three years have had higher totals than the prior three years, however, as best I can tell, the increase is largely occurring in the Pacific, due to winds pouring off Siberia into the Sea of Oshkosh, and that sea-ice will not last long there, once spring warms the landscape. Furthermore maximums have little correlation with minimums, and a quick glance shows the past two minimums were lower than the prior three.

What really matters, when it comes to determining the minimum ahead of time, is how thick the sea-ice is in the Arctic Sea itself, and whether the AMO and PDO are allowing milder currents north. The North Atlantic currents are colder, and less sea-ice has been flushed out through Fram Strait. (Could still happen, I suppose, but not to the degree it did in 2007; we’ve run out of time.) The Laptev Sea has exported far less sea-ice north this year, and has fast-ice rather than polynyas on its south coast. A La Nina ought make the Pacific colder. So I would say it looks bad for an ice-free arctic this summer, and we might even see a surprising increase at the minimum.

Stay tuned.