ARCTIC SEA ICE -I thought the thaw was pretty flat-(Updated 10 times)

Tweety Bird images We have passed the halfway point of the summer thaw, and from now on the periods of thaw tend to slowly be interspersed with periods of freezing. Ar first the downturn of temperatures is very gradual, but as time passes the sun sinks lower and lower, and when it touches the horizon in September the downturn becomes dramatic. (Green line in graph below.) (All illustrations in this post can be clicked to clarify and enlarge, or opened to new tabs when comparisons are desired.)DMI2 0725 meanT_2015 This is not to say a summer thaw can’t extend more than a week longer than usual. A good example occurred in 1964, long before “Global Warming” became a topic outside the most rarefied circles.DMI2 1964 meanT_1964 Many felt this summer’s graph should look like 1964’s, if not warmer, due to more than a year of warm El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. Instead, while milder than the past two summers, it has still been below normal most of the time, so far. (Red line, top graph). Adding to this puzzle is the fact the ice-extent graph, despite beginning the melting season with a head-start, compared to other years, has failed to melt away as fast as many expected.DMI2 0725 icecover_current_new This post, like its predecessors, is merely observations on a scratch pad, as we watch what is occurs, plus some wondering as well. One cannot help but wonder, when seeing what wasn’t expected, but for the most part I try not to pretend I am an authority, and to merely be a witness.

I find the DMI pressure and temperature maps of the area north of 60° latitude helpful. The world looks different, when viewed from the top, and one gains a unique perspective on how weather systems operate.

Recently we have seen a textbook pattern, where the “Polar Cell” squats on or near the Pole, orbited by small low pressure systems which mark the boundary between the Polar Cell and the Ferrel Cell.. Polar Cell atmospherecirculationIn the DMI pressure map below, the Polar high pressure is the yellow area just above the Pole, and I have dubbed it “Pohi”.  (You’ll have to forgive me for naming systems; I’ve never been good with numbers).  It is surrounded by six lows. “Beau” is north of Canada and weakening; the stronger ” Karazip” is well inland, in east-central Siberia; “Karason” is nosing into the Kara Sea, very weak “Laggard” is between Norway and Iceland, and its far stronger secondary, “Laggardson”, is off the map moving up from France towards the Baltic Sea, but most interesting to me is “Kara”, a retrograde low moving east into Fram Strait.

Most of these lows move west to east, seemingly propelled by the Ferrel Cell, but when they occlude they seem to hook up with the Polar Cell’s circulation and loop-de-loop back west. Occationally  one, such as Kara, breaks out of the loop and continues merrily west. A few others assault the Pole itself, in which case you can throw your textbook out the window,  for the Polar Cell becomes a doughnut, with a hole of low pressure in its middle.

What is interesting about the current textbook situation is that the ring of low pressures have created a ring of sub-freezing temperatures around the Pole. (The deepest shade of green on the temperature map.) These cold temperatures, and also the gloomy cloudiness associated with the lows, are situated right at the edge of the sea-ice, where melting is ordinarily liable to be fastest. I wonder if the slowness of this year’s melt might be partly explained by the storm tracks.

DMI2 0725B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0725B temp_latest.big

Our on-the-scene reporters are the various cameras bobbing about on the sea ice. My long-time favorite is the North Pole Camera, which I call “Faboo”. This year Faboo has been far slower to come south to Fram Strait, which has always been the graveyard of North Pole Cameras. Rather than a “pulverized pole” like last year, the ice Faboo is on seems more solid this year, and more difficult to flush south. Yesterday it traveled 6.92 miles SSW, which is more than usual, because winds were a stiff breeze up to 15 mph, whereas we are more used to seeing conditions with winds down around 5 mph, if not complete calm. Temperatures didn’t vary much, reaching a low oif +0.2° at 0600Z, and a high of +0.7°C at noon, before slipping back to +0.5°C at 2100z at our final report. (This data always comes in a day late.)

Faboo’s view was glorious sunshine and thaw a week ago, but this week has been mostly gloomy, with a little wet snow and a lot of drizzle. (I call the melt-water pool to the right “Lake Faboo”, in honor of a larger pool two summers ago that the media dubbed “Lake North Pole”, until it drained away overnight into a crack.) The first picture shows the first shreds of blue sky seen in a long while, but the second shows the drizzle is back. NP3 1 0725B 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0725C 2015cam1_1

Despite a long period of thaw, a fair amount of liquid precipitation, and now some stiff breezes, the ice pack shows no signs of breaking up. Usually you can see some leads and pressure ridges, at least in the far distance, but this year the solidity is noteworthy.

For action you have to head south around 360 miles, where O-buoy 9 has, after a drift of nearly two years from the Eurasian side of the Pole, crashed into the chaos north of Greenland and is in the process of being flushed down into Fram Strait. It is aboard a berg of dwindling size, and every picture it transmits is very different from the prior view.

Obuoy 9 0725 webcam Obuoy 9 0725B webcam Obuoy 9 0725C webcamObuoy 9 0725D webcam The fog that formed in the final picture did so as temperatures dipped below freezing. The winds have died down to 5 mph. The camera has started to tilt.

Hopefully I’ll find time to add the other cameras tomorrow morning, but it is past my bedtime, so good night!

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE 

The focus I have continues to be the low Kara, which is weakening and filling in Fram Strait, and the high pressure Pohi, which is now extending towards Eurasia, with an arm extending down towards northern Scandinavia and then west towards Iceland, curving around Kara like a guy making his move at the movies on a date. (How’s that for an image?)

I am watching the temperatures carefully, because I’ve noticed cooling associated with these arctic storms, when  they weaken and fill. It doesn’t make sense to me, for my simple logic tells me that when lifted air has rained out its moisture and then descends, it should be warmer, like the descending air in a Chinook. I’ve also  been assured the air doesn’t radiate much heat upward into outer space, especially in 24 hour sunshine in July.

The tight gradient of isobars between Kara and Pohi has greatly slackened, and I look for light winds and calm between Fram Strait and the Pole. Meanwhile the cold air on the Pacific side persists, and is larger than it was yesterday. (Remember that in the 0000z maps noon is at the top and midnight at the bottom. Even though the sun doesn’t set, as you move away from the Pole it does get higher and lower in the sky, and there is a slight diurnal swing in temperatures. In the map below it is the warm part of the day up towards the Pacific, which makes the sub-freezing area all the more noteworthy.)

DMI2 0726 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0726 temp_latest.big

Conditions at Faboo must be windless, for the drops on the lens have only gravitated downwards slightly. They are all in the same position and only the smallest have dried up, so humidity must be high. It looks like a dank, grey day.

NP3 1 0726 2015cam1_1Down by Greenland O-buoy 9 also sees gray and calm conditions, with temperatures just rising back up to thaw after a dip below freezing. The calm is accented by the mirror-like reflections in the water, and the fact the small berg that has grounded on our berg hasn’t washed free in over half a day.

Obuoy 9 0726 webcamSouth of there in Fram Strait Buoy 2015E: is reporting +0.36°.

I’ll discuss the buoys over in the Beaufort Sea after church.

BEAUFORT SEA DISCUSSION

This area has been an embarrassment to me this year, as I was expecting mildness and melting due to the “warm” spoke in the PDO, and we haven’t seen much yet.

We are blessed with three cameras this year, where we only had one last year. Furthest south and furthest east, at roughly  76° N, 139.5°W, sits O-buoy 11. It resides on ice roughly 5 feet thick, but is interesting as just beyond a pressure ridge in the near distance is a lead that had repetitively opened up and then slammed shut, sometimes increasing the size of the pressure ridge with the violence of its slam. Today it slammed shut and then reopened. Winds have been around 9 mph, and temperatures barely poked above freezing before dipping back down.

Obuoy 11 0726B webcamObuoy 11 0726C webcam Moving north and west from there we arrive at O-buoy 10, which was the lone buoy we watched last summer. It has been describing erratic circles the past year, as it is near the center of the Beaufort Gyre. Currently it is roughly at 77.5° N, 143.8° W. Today its view has gotten breezy, with winds at 15 mph, and temperatures just dipping below freezing after a day spent with temperatures a hair above freezing (and a raindrop on the lens of the first picture.). It has an impressive meltwater pool I call “Lake Beaufort” in the center of today’s view, but the camera drifts in a pool of its own, and tomorrow the camera may look in a different direction. Lake Beaufort seems no deeper, but is eroding its shorelines by melting them.Obuoy 10 0726B webcam Obuoy 10 0726C webcam Far to the west, at the boundary of the Chukchi sea, sits O-buoy 12 at roughly 77.5 N°, 164.3° W. Here is where I expected the warm PDO to have its greatest effect, as this buoy was closest to Bering Strait. However as soon as I made that forecast it drifted north away from the strait, and also experienced temperatures consistently below normal. I am convinced this buoy holds some sort of grudge against me and is out to make me look like a jackass. Lake Chukchi (the melt-water pool to the left) even started to skim over with ice right in the middle of the thaw season, but today we got back to thawing, and the breeze has stiffened to 18 mph, so maybe the ice will break up and the smart-Alex buoy will at last get its comeuppance.Obuoy 12 0726B webcam Obuoy 12 0726C webcam

The noticeable thing about the views this year is that the sunny pictures which I like are few and far between, and it is cold.  The melt-water is ordinary, for the time of year, but on other years the ice has been thinner,  and more fractured. In fact a few summers ago O-buoy 12’s view would have been open water.

The open water resulted in another source of on-the-ground reporting, which came from adventurers taking on the Northwest Passage.  Some wanted to be the first to do so by row-boat, or kayak, or ski-do. Often they were sponsored by people concerned by the prospect of an ice-free Pole increasing the rate of Global Warming,  and often their satellite pictures and postings were filled with the violins of pity for the planet, even as they ran into increasing ice and accidentally showed the Pole still had plenty of ice.

This year I’m still awaiting the first pictures from the passage. The NOAA ice map does show some open water along the northern coast of Alaska.Alaska July 1 ice And the satellite view suggests it might be possible to thread that needle. (East is down in this view, and the coast is to the left, with ice off shore.)Alaska July 2 ScreenHunter_9971-Jul.-25-10.14 Therefore I’m wondering why no one has started. Perhaps they know a shift in the winds can bring the ice south in a hurry, and one might suffer the fate of the fellow who got trapped for ten days on the ice last July. (It wasn’t sitting still that bothered him as much as it was the 1500 pound polar bears wandering about the boat, looking at him, and licking their lips.)Alaska July 3 arctic-sailor-july-21-alt_altan-girl-trapped1 And you have to admit it makes a fellow blush when, after talking a lot about Global Warming and an ice-free Pole, he needs to be rescued by a coast guard icebreaker. Alaska July 4 arctic-sailor-july-21-alt_altan-girl-under-tow1 However I sure hope people aren’t letting a little thing like that discourage them. We need our on-the-ground reporters. If anyone knows of any, please alert me, because I do enjoy watching, from the safety of my  armchair.

BRIEF EVENING REPORT

Yesterday Faboo swerved more to the west, traveling 3.19 miles to 86.016°N, 8.054°W. Temperatures rose from a low of +0.4°C at midnight to a high of +0.9°C at 1800z before falling back to +0.6°C at 2100Z The breezes slacked off to around 5 mph. The weather remained grey, with the drying drops on the lens looking odd, as if they might have frozen and then sublimated at the very end. We’ll have to wait for tomorrow’s data to know about that, as the Mass Balance Buoys are not reporting.NP3 1 0726B 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0726C 2015cam1_1 Down at O-buoy 9 we are drifting to the east, passing 12° longitude again, in light winds of 5 mph and with temperatures just below freezing.Obuoy 9 0726B  webcamObuoy 9 0726C webcam I’ll discuss the maps tomorrow. My eyes are closing on their own.DMI2 0726B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0726B temp_latest.big

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0727 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0727 temp_latest.big

Kara is fading away north of Greenland, but retains just enough identity to create a weak southerly flow in Fram Strait.

Faboo continues grey and calm. NP3 1 0727 2015cam1_1

Usually there is no ice in Hudson Bay at this time. Last year there was less ice on the Laptev Sea, but more ice east of Svalbard and in the Kara Sea.DMI2 0727 arcticicennowcast

Need to get to work. Mondays…….bah!

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE  

Yesterday’s data shows that Faboo flinched, and actually backed away from Fram Strait, moving northwest  2.1 miles to  86.043°N, 8.257°W. The furthest south we got was 86.015°N at 0300Z Yesterday morning. We’ll have to carve a notch there and see how long it takes to get back that far south.

It is no small thing to stop the huge amount of ice involved in the transpolar drift, and set it all back on its heels. I always wonder if there are a lot of strange noises heard, as the ice changes direction, and all sorts of leads and pressure ridges formed.DMI2 0727B arcticicespddrfnowcast Apparently there was some sort of front involved as the ice changed direction, as the wind swing around over 100 degrees, roughly from NE to SSE, and the wind picked up from 4 mph to 13 mph. There was an odd plunge in temperatures just as the wind shifted, from +0.6°C to -0.1°C  at 0600Z, though it rose right back up to + 0.6°C at 1500Z. Those temperatures represented yesterday’s low and high.

The view continues gray and monotonous.NP3 1 0727B 2015cam1_2 With winds swinging around to the south you might think we’d be getting warmer, but it doesn’t look like it will be right away. The current unofficial Mass Balance report has Faboo at -0.02° C, while down in Fram Strait at 77.74° N, 8.51° W Buoy 2015E: is reporting a surprisingly cold -1.68° C. Also south of Faboo, O-bouy 9 looks like it is down close to -2°CObuoy 9 0727B temperature-1weekThis all fits in with my observation that fading arctic storms mysteriously generate cold air.

O-buoy 9 hasn’t been moving south, but has drifted east all the way to latitude 11°. Winds picked up to around 10 mph for a while but have slacked off to 5 mph. The first picture shows we finally, (perhaps helped by the breeze), shook  of the hitchhiking freeloader-berg, which is drifting away, and the second picture shows we have run into a traffic jam.Obuoy 9 0727 webcam Obuoy 9 0727B webcam Over in the Beaufort Sea the O-buoys are generally seeing cold temperatures nudging up to a diurnal high at, or just above, freezing, with a breeze around 10 mph.

Obuoy 10 0727B webcam Obuoy 11 0727B webcam Obuoy 12 0727B webcam The DMI maps show Kara has nearly completely faded away north of Greenland, as Laggardson swings up from Scandinavia, but will be deflected south by an arm of Pohi, who is jealously defending the Pole. Pohi should be looking behind his back, however, for the inoculous-looking Beau, north of mainland Canada, may get a second wind. The temperature map shows warmer air at the west mouth of the Northwest Passage getting ready to clash with colder air just to its north.

A lot of what happens in Fram Strait depends on whether it remains in a southerly flow generated by the east side of Beau, or switches to a northerly flow generated by the west side of Laggardson.

There is more sub-freezing air around Fram Strait than we’ve seen in a while, especially at noon.

DMI2 0727B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0727B temp_latest.big

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0728 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0728 temp_latest.big

Not much new that I notice. Warm day at Svalbard, but warmth not making it north in Fram Strait. Circle of sub-freezing around core of thaw at Pole. Faboo’s view continues gray.NP3 1 0728 2015cam1_1 To the south O-buoy 9 continues cold and relatively calm.Obuoy 9 0728 webcam

At O-buoy 10 Lake Beaufort looks larger, and perhaps ready to drain downwards. Thaw is at height.Obuoy 10 0728 webcam At O-buoy 11 the lead in the distance has reopened yet again. Obuoy 11 0728 webcamO-buoy 12 has really given me something to ponder at work today. A decent chunk of ice has grounded on the shores of Lake Chukchi, to the left, which makes me wonder what is going on off camera to the left. A lead may have opened in that direction, out of sight, and Lake Chukchi may now be a bay on the lead’s side.Obuoy 12 0728 webcam TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE

Yesterday’s data is in for Faboo, and shows we continued NW 4.65 miles to 86.109°N, 8.463°W. Air temperatures remained flat, slightly thawing, with a low of +0.4°C at the start and end of the period, and a high of +0.8°C at 1500Z. Winds were a breeze of 13 mph from the SE, swinging slightly to the SSE. The gray conditions persisted.

NP3 1 0728B 2015cam1_1

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE —All Mass Balance Buoys report below freezing.—

You don’t  see this all that often at the height of the summer thaw:

Buoy 2015B -0.82 C
Buoy 2015D -0.80 C
Buoy 2015E: -1.68 C
Buoy 2014F: -0.41 C
Buoy 2014G: -1.21 C
Buoy 2014I:   -0.37 C
Buoy 2013F:  -0.21 C

OK, OK, the latest Buoy 2015E report did just come in and show it just got above freezing down in Fram Strait, but that news would spoil our headline, wouldn’t it now?

GLITCH IN HUDSON BAY NRL THICKNESS DATA?

The NRL (Navel Research Lab) maps have always been great, but this year I suspect some glitch is effecting the thickness maps. At least those thickness maps don’t make ice vanish, where it still exists, as some other maps do, however they seem to show ice as being far thinner than it actually is. For nearly a month it has been showing the remaining ice as being quite thin in Hudson Bay, only six inches thick in places,  as other maps and charts produced by the Canadian Ice Service tell a different story.

Hudson July 28 A CMMBCTCA Or see:  http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS30CT/20150727180000_WIS30CT_0008387722.pdf  (hat tip: Stewart Pid)

However a picture from up there may be worth more than a thousand maps:Hudson July 28 3 ccgs-pierre-radisson-in-sea-ice

This is a picture of the the CCGS Pierre Radisson escorting the oil tanker Havelstern to Iqaluit on July 17, so the people there can have heating oil for the coming winter. That ice does not look as thin as the NRL maps suggest.  Ice breakers ordinarily have the summer off in Hudson Bay, and can be hired by scientists. The fact scientists had their research interrupted by the very real needs of very real people resulted in some sarcasm on the part of Skeptics.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/22/arctic-expedition-to-study-global-warming-put-on-hold-because-of-too-much-ice/

Actually this possible glitch is a matter of concern. If the thickness data is seriously under-estimated, and is put into the concentration forecast, then the ten-day-forecast can quite logically be expected to predict the ice will melt away within ten days. And this is exactly what the forecast been doing since June.

The glitch  shows up quite clearly when you compare the NRL thickness map for this year with the map for the same date on the record-setting year of low ice extent, 2012.  According to this comparison, we have significantly less ice this year, (Hat tip to poster “Jusse” over at “Real Science” for creating this comparison.)

If we truly have so much less ice than 2012 then we are about to see Alarmists become very happy, for the extent graphs will take a dive below even 2012.  However if it is a glitch, it should be fixed before the embarrassment becomes too keen.

O-BUOY PICTURES FROM EARLIER

The O-buoy cameras aren’t reporting, but here are some pictures I saved in the afternoon. It is cold atop Greenland, and looks like they are getting slushy snow in Beaufort Sea, with clearing over towards Bering Strait and O-buoy 12.

Obuoy 9 0728B webcamObuoy 10 0728B webcamObuoy 11 0728B webcamObuoy 12 0728B webcam EVENING DMI MAPS

DMI2 0728B mslp_latest.bigDMi2 0728B temp_latest.big

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0729 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0729 temp_latest.big

“Laggardson” is starting to fade in the North Atlantic, drifting down towards Iceland rather than invading Fram Strait, and it looks like in its lee “Nolag” will take a similar route, up through the Baltic and then loop-de-looping back into the Atlantic, at first towards Svalbard and then back down towards Iceland. Some milder air does invade Barents Sea, but looks like it will primarily be swept west and not north. For the time being the circle of sub-freezing temperatures stands strong around the “Pohi” and the Pole.

The storm of most interest to me is “Beau”, which is now strengthening in the Beaufort Sea. This looks like it will sneak in behind Pohi, and be the closest thing we’ve seen to a polar storm in a while. Currently it is not forecast to deepen much below 1000mb, or have winds much above 20 mph, however it should budge us into a new pattern. Pohi looks like it should retreat to Eurasia and the Atlantic side.

It is midnight in the second (lower) temperature map above, and it should be noted the area of sub-freezing temperatures has significantly expanded. The question not troubling world leaders in capitals across the globe is, “Where did the heat go?”

It will be interesting to see Faboo’s official data from yesterday when it comes out this afternoon. The unofficial Mass Balance reports have had it dipping below freezing and drifting northwest, at -0.70° C at last report. The weather continues to be a tedious grayness. Lake Faboo looks glassy, so the breeze pushing us north has likely died down to a calm.NP3 1 0729 2015cam1_1 For excitement we have to head south to O-buoy 9 off the northeast tip of Greenland. Winds have picked up to 15 mph, our ice has stopped drifting east and has lurched west, temperatures have risen to just below freezing, and another chunk of the berg we ride upon has fallen away. The ice has eroded dangerously close to our camera, and we could be bobbing in the drink soon.Obuoy 9 0729 webcam

South by southeast of there Buoy 2015E: is reporting +0.10° C, and may be already in the drink as it is reporting an ice-thickness of -8 cm. Negative thickness is a new concept to me, and I am having a hard time getting my mind around it, perhaps because, until my first coffee kicks in, my mind is afflicted by negative thickness.

Over in Beaufort Sea both O-buoy 10 and O-buoy 11 look like they are starting to feel the effects of the developing low pressure “Beau”, as both have had teary lenses.  Both have seen temperatures just below freezing. O-buoy 10 has seen the stronger breezes, with winds at 20 mph, and has recently cleared its eyes. It’s view has swung around to the left of Lake Beaufort.Obuoy 10 0729 webcamO-buoy 11 has gone all weepy on us and is sharing a fairly useless view, with winds at 11 mph.Obuoy 11 0729 webcamO-buoy 12 is of interest to me. Lake Chukchi has significantly expanded. Because small bergs beached on the shore to our left, and then drifted away, I’m tempted to say there is a lead and open water behind us, however Lake Chukchi itself does not behave like a lead, for the ice on the far side does not move in relation to where we view from. We also know that, while the lowest part of Lake Chukchi may have punched through to the sea, it has a bottom and shallower areas. You can see why a satellite might have a hard time differentiating between open water and ice covered by water. There is still a chance Lake Chukchi might abruptly drain, and prove to be pure melt-water, but I never recall seeing melt-water pools with individual bergs drifting in them before.Obuoy 12 0729 webcam

August and early September tend to see a lot of breaking-up of ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas, and we may be seeing the start of it here. I actually was expecting it earlier in the summer, due to the “warm” spike in the PDO, but this rascal buoy had to wait until I ventured that maybe it had drifted far enough north to avoid the break-up, before doing it. I tell you, this buoy has a grudge against me, though I haven’t a clue what I  ever did to deserve it.

********

The large mass of ice to the left has drifted to the right. Looks like the sea is cracking up here, and O-buoy 12 is officially adrift.  obuoy 12 0729B webcam

WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE  —Faboo continues north—

Faboo continued to regress north towards the Pole, now slanting a little east of north. The furthest west we reached was 8.484°W at 1800Z Monday. Yesterday we traveled 6.03 miles, which is decent progress for summer, but in completely the wrong direction if we intend to get to Fram Strait before nightfall in September. Our position at the end of yesterday’s report was 86.195°N, 8.220°W.  We were blown north by a southerly wind that veered slightly to the SSW, blowing a steady 16 mph for half a day before slacking off to 11 mph at the end of the period. Strangely, the south wind brought cold temperatures, with the day’s high at the very start, +0.3°C at midnight, before sinking to -0.7°C at 0600Z, rising to a second high of -0.2°C at 1800Z and then falling slightly to -0.4°C at our final report at 2100Z. This was not merely pools of cold air wafting about in calm conditions. This was a steady, cold, sub-freezing wind.  The unofficial Mass Balance reports showed we continued below freezing this morning, but made it back to a very slight thaw at +0.17° C later. The camera continues to  gaze forlornly over a gray landscape, with the reflection in Lake Faboo suggesting yesterday’s winds have abated, or the water has glassed over (which I  doubt).NP3 1 0729B 2015cam1_1

To the south Buoy 2015E: is at +0.01°, and may be far enough south to be touched by Laggardson’s winds.

O-BUOY’S WITNESSING CRACK-UP OF ICE

On the northeast corner of Greenland O-buoy 9 has only a fragment of its foundation berg left, and has been through strong, 20 mph breezes that have pushed it south and west, with temperatures right at freezing. I can’t ever recall a camera bobbing on so small a platform before.

Obuiy 9 0729C webcam Obuoy 9 0729C webcam

Over in the Beaufort Sea O-buoy 10 is the one camera still seeing fracture-free ice, as the winds of “Beau” come north. Temperatures have been below freezing, but it the wind that does the damage, and winds were up at 27 mph earlier, before falling back to the current 15mph. The camera has swung right around and Lake Beaufort now lies behind our back.Obuoy 10 0729B webcam O-buoy 11, further south, has seen the ice crack up right at its feet with temperatures below freezing and winds rising to 18 mph. The swiftness of the crack-up has been impressive.Obuoy 11 0729B webcam Over towards the west O-buoy 12 continues to remain stable midst its crack-up, with less water and more ice apparent now. In fact, if I didn’t have the earlier pictures I could draw the wrong conclusions, and assume Lake Chukchi was draining. Temperatures are back up towards freezing after taking a dive earlier to around -2.2°C. Winds have risen again to 16 mph.

Obuoy 12 0729B temperature-1week Obuoy 12 0729C webcam O-buoy 12 seems to be situated on a fairly solidly-packed, old pressure ridge which may allow us to enjoy a long ride before we get dumped, Once these cameras get dumped the pictures are all over the place and from erratic angels as the buoy bobs, and can give you a case of whiplash.

The break-up of the ice is a yearly event, and usually is a time of rejoicing for Alarmists, and gloom for many Skeptics. It doesn’t show up much on the extent graph, as the ice can be as little as 15% of the area and still “make the graph”. In fact sometimes the extent can actually increase as the ice breaks up, as it can spread out more and cover a larger area. The current dip in the extent graph may be more due to the opposite happening north of Fram Strait; ice that was spreading out is being pushed back north and consolidating. In any case, the graph does continue to plunge every year for another 30 days before it even starts to think of bottoming out.DMI2 0729B icecover_current_new Even though “Beau” is weak, as polar storms go, it is forecast to wobble about the Beaufort Sea for a week, and models suggest it will get two new infusions of energy, and rather than simply fading will get a second wind, and then a third wind.  It may be able to churn the seas a bit, now that the ice is breaking up, and this will tell us a lot about the temperature of the water under the ice. If the “warm” spike of the PDO has been able to slip a layer of warmer water under the ice, like a playing card slipping into a deck, then the ice may vanish swiftly as it did the summer gale of 2012. However if the water under the ice is not stratified and is colder, the ice will be churned about by storms and not melt all that much, which occurred when a gale spun atop the planet during the summer of 2013. It will be interesting to watch. Among other things, I’ll be watching the location of the lows center, to see if that has much to do with the break up of the ice, and I’ll also be watching to see if the low “creates cold.”

The DMI maps, with noon at the bottom, shows the sub-freezing air gone from the Atlantic side, but impressive on the Pacific side.

DMI2 0729B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0729B temp_latest.big

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE

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“Nopo” getting shifted towards the Atlantic by “Beau” over the Beaufort Sea as Larggardson weakens east of Greenland. Nolag moving up into the Baltic to follow Laggardson. Mild air drawn north through the Canadian Archipelago towards the Pole.

Faboo is in a cqalm area between competing systems. Conditions continue gray, with temperatures either side of freezing.

NP3 1 0730NP3 1 0730B 2015cam1_1O-buoy 9 continues its precarious ride on a surfboard of ice.  Obuoy 9 0730 webcam O-buoy 10 sees slackening winds and temperatures just below freezing. It is close to “Beau”.Obuoy 10 0730 webcamA very pretty picture from O-buoy 11, which I think is drifting on its own now, free of an ice foundation. Temperatures are just below freezing, with Beau’s winds slackening.Obuoy 11 0730 webcamO-buoy 12 is coldest of our buoys, with the drifting ice currently crushing together but definitely broken up. Winds are slackening here as well.Obuoy 12 0730 webcamI may not have time to post later. Temperatures are heading up to the 90°s here in New Hampshire again, and there is nothing like dealing with a mob of kids in heat to keep a man busy and humble (but hopefully not too crabby). My plan is to turn on the hose and keep them wet. In the back of my mind I’ll be thinking of sea-ice.

THURSDAY EVENING REPORT

Faboo slowed down as the winds died down to a complete calm yesterday. We only traveled 1.53 miles, but it was away from Fram Strait.  We moved northeast, with our most eastward longitude 8.190°W at 0300Z, and then traveled northwest, with our northernmost latitude being 86.215°N at noon, and then floated due west, with our final position at 86.214°N, 8.393°W.

Yesterday’s data showed us complete a period of 24 hours with temperatures below freezing, with our low at -0.4°C at the start of our data at 2100Z Wednesday, (and still at -0.4°C at midnight, if you insist on starting the day there), and still  right at freezing at 0300Z. Then we popped up to the days high of +0.4°C at 0600Z, but were back down to the freezing mark again at 0.0°C at 2100Z.

For the most part the view was gloom, gloom, gloom, but Fabootwo (the second and inferior camera,  did catch just a hint of clearing, minutes before midnight yesterday.

NP3 2 0730 2015cam2_4 Faboo, however, remains in a blue funk:NP3 1 0730C 2015cam1_1 O-buoy 9 saw rthe winds die to a calm, with temperatures right at freezing.Obuoy 9 0730B webcamObuoy 9 0730C webcamO-buoy 10, co-located with Mass Balance Buoy 2014F, is reporting temperatures about a half degree below freezing, and the ice is srill four feet thick, but must be under duress as winds have picked back up to 20 mph. The darkness of the clouds on the left horizon may be due to those clouds reflecting the hue of open water. Obuoy 10 0730B webcam Obuoy 10 0730C webcam Obuoy 10 0730C 2013F_thickObuoy 11 is now sailing free, though likely getting bumped a lot by bergs. If an icebreaker is available they will likely pick this buoy up. Temperatures remain just below freezing, and winds are picking back up to 18 mph. Obuoy 11 0730B webcam Obuoy 11 0730C webcamO-buoy 12 is on the south (Bering Strait) side of Beau, and in some of the coldest air over the arctic. It’s companion buoy 2014G last reported a temperature of -1.12°C. This is not conducive to summer thaw, nor is the lack of sunshine conducive to warming waters. It seems likely that the ice broke up because, after crunching north for a considerable period, Beau’s winds started to blow the ice south, which allowed for many leads to start to open up. (There is no way to be sure that O-buoy 12 and 2014G are on the same piece of ice, and they could drift far apart. For the time being I’ll be assuming they are close together, but it is an assumption.)Obuoy 12 0730B webcam Obuoy 12 0730C webcamThe DMI maps show midnight at the top and noon at the bottom. The area of sub-freezing air on the Pacific side has enlarged over the past 24 hours. The remains of “Karazip” (and some additional Pacific energy) are likely to cross Bering Strait and supply a spoke of additional energy to Beau, giving it a second wind. “Karason” has generally stagnated south of the Kara Sea, but pumped mild air north into an easterly flow from the Kara Sea clear to Iceland, but the mildness can’t seem to penetrate north of Svalbard (so far). “Laggardson” is fading fasr south of Fram Strait, and is now little more than an appendage of “Nolag”, which is looping up off Norwa. A Johny-come-lately low is joining the fray, crossing the Atlantic beneath Iceland, (I’ll call it “Lately.”)  Last but not least, (and perhaps worthy of my focus tomorrow), downright hot air surged north to the ice in Hudson Bay, and has clashed with the cold up there and is brewing up a new storm, over at the left  (nine o’clock) of the map. I’ll call it “Clash.”

The mildest invasion continues to be through the Canadian Archipelago, on the “warm” side of Beau.  The Pole is warmer than the Beaufort Sea.This mild invasion passes right over the Northwest Passage, and hopefully will encourage some adventurers to attempt the passage, so we have some on-the-ground reporters.

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FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE

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“Pohi” is now basically a ridge separating “Beau” on the Pacific side from “Nolag” over Scandinavia. Noon is at the top of the maps, and the warming on the Pacific side is likely diurnal, as is the appearance of sub-freezing air north of the Kara Sea and Fraz Josef Land. The ridge creates calm in Fram Strait, and Faboo looks to again be in a very slight southerly flow, though it did shift very slightly southeast overnight, according to the unofficial Mass Balance report, with temperatures rising from -0.10°C to +0.29°C. The view continues gray, though perhaps there is hope of a change in the weather in the central distance.NP3 1 0731 2015cam1_1 O-buoy 9 sees near calm, fog, and temperatures just above freezing down at the northwest entrance to Fram Strait.Obuoy 9 0731 webcamO-buoy 10 seems to be swinging around to look at “Lake Beaufort”, with temperatures nearly a degree below freezing and winds of 15 mph. It may have wet snow in its eye.Obuoy 10 0731 webcamO-buoy 11 continues to bob in a strong breeze of 18 mph, (notice slightly tilted horizon) with temperatures dipping back below freezing.Obuoy 11 0731 webcamO-buoy 12 continues to experience sub-freezing temperatures and a steady wind around 9-12 mph. It rides a berg with a pointed bow like a battleship. “Beau” has been pushing us south into waters with more elbow room, and it looks like this spreading-out of ice along the Beaufort-Chukchi boundary will continue for as long as Beau mills about to the northwest. This can create upticks in the extent graphs, though of course there is no increase of actual ice. DMI2 0731 icecover_current_new

ARCTIC SEA ICE -The First Law-(Updated 9 times and concluded.)

I’ve been busy with other posts, but do not neglect my important responsibility when it comes to watching paint dry ice melt. Because part of my responsibility involves educating you, the reader, I insist you study the following interpretation, by artists, of scientific stuff. It is especially important because it explains the laws of thermodynamics I need you to understand. It also explains bullshit involving the difference between science and poets. And it does this back in the 1960’s. In fact, as you watch these two guys, you get the sense they were miles ahead of their times, and perhaps were minor prophets.

I can’t compete with those two guys (one in a wheelchair.) There is more education and wisdom involved in replaying their ancient video five times, than I am liable to produce.  I’m humbled.

Until I can recover from being so humbled, the best I can do is post DMI maps. Reality also produces more than a poet ever can.                             DMI20719 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0719 temp_latest.big DMI2 0719B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0719B temp_latest.big

Before I return to my more-boring focus on the above maps, perhaps we should briefly consider other realities, which were obvious to Flanders and Swan, a half century ago.

*******

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Last week some models were showing a summer storm moving north from the Kara Sea to the Pole, but reality begged to differ, and what we witness is the opposite: High pressure rebuilding over the Pole. There is only a vauge dimple of low pressure denting the isobars at the Pole, and rather than from the Kara Sea that dimple came from, of all places, the taiga and tundra west of Hudson Bay. Some surprisingly mild air came seeping north through the Canadian Archipelago and gave one of the strongest thaws of the summer to off-shore ice, on its way to the Pole. Once such mild air gets north it tends to rise, and weaken the high pressure. Faboo (my name for the North Pole Camera Buoy) saw our sunny spell come to an end, and the Pole experienced above-normal temperatures for the first time in three summers.

DMI2 0720 meanT_2015 The above graph only includes temperatures north of 80° latitude, but if you look at the temperature maps above you notice there is a sort of ring of sub-freezing temperatures associated with weak low pressure dancing around the polar high pressure, with  much of the chill south of 80°. (This is as the textbook states things should be, with the high pressure over the pole the center of the “Polar Cell.”) (Half of the time the Pole just laughs at the textbooks.)

Most of the melting of the sea-ice comes from warmer water transported north under the ice, or the ice being transported south to warmer waters and climes, however the chill  around the edges of the Pole cannot be speeding the melt of the ice, which continues slower than last year. DMI2 0720 icecover_current_new Although I earlier showed you how wrong models can be, I will mention some models are showing the sub-freezing temperatures growing, during the next two weeks, over the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska. (You can click all maps and images in this post to clarify and enlarge)DMI2 0720 ScreenHunter_9947-Jul.-19-08.07 My job is made easier this Monday morning by the fact neither the O-buoy camera site nor the Mass Balance Buoy site are transmitting, this morning. It like the old days, when all we had was Faboo, and Fabootwo, (the second North Pole Camera).

Fabootwo did catch a glimpse of midnight sun, (Notice the sun is already getting lower.) (Also notice a snow stake has fallen over.)NP3 2 0720 2015cam2_2

However for the most part Faboo has seen the thaw be sunless.

NP3 1 0720 2015cam1_1 We have to wait a day to get the official data from Faboo, and it shows us Faboo continued its very slow drift to the south and west, traveling 2.42 miles in 24 hours and winding us up at 86.341°N, 5.490°W. Winds remained light, even calm, but the transpolar drift shoves us along even without wind.

There does seem to be a heat-island effect caused by the sun striking the buoy, even though they try their best to make the buoy be white and reflect heat. It sits in its own private pool of water, and when it is sunny temperatures spike when it gets calm. For example, Friday’s final reading was in a calm, and was +2.7°C, but as soon as a slight 2 mph draft started wafting, the next reading came in at +0.4°C, for Saturday’s low. But then it grew cloudy, so I am less liable to distrust the high temperatures, especially as winds touched 5 mph at times. We reached +1.9°C at noon, and even though our final reading of +2.0°C was measured in a calm, I trust it more than I trust readings when it is bright and sunny.

In conclusion Faboo sits in the center of the height of the summer thaw, as all around the edges of the Arctic Ocean sub-freezing temperatures play ring-around-the-Rosie. (And, in case you wonder why I use such a childish analogy, it is because I have to go face a bunch of children, running my Farm-childcare.  Mondays….)

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE

Faboo continued its slow drift south Sunday, covering another 2.62 miles and winding up at 86.303°N, 5.503°W. The calm gave way to a light breeze if 6 mph, and the slow fade to the west reached 5.552°W at noon before turning back to the east, which suggests the light breeze has swung around to the west. Temperatures rose from a low of +0.7°C at midnight to a high of +1.2°C at 1500Z before falling back to +0.9°C at the final reading at 2100Z. This small range is likely due to the gloomy weather. It will be interesting to see tomorrow’s data, for the mist on the lens in the most recent picture looks frozen to me, which is possible when temperatures are very close to freezing, due to evaporative cooling.NP3 1 0720 2015cam1_2 NP3 1 0720B 2015cam1_1 Lake Faboo has grown slightly larger during the recent thaw. I don’t think it is deeper, but rather is melting away at its edges.

The O-buoys came back to life, though they still aren’t reporting the weather. They are transmitting GPS and Pictures. As usual, O-buoy 9 is the most interesting. It is still around 81° latitude, but after getting east to 10° longitude it has come all the way back to 12°. The front edge of the berg is steadily eroding, closer and closer, nearer and nearer, and the drama is so intense that I’m thinking of adding some background music, (of the dramatic sort, of course.)  Also you can see the berg is swinging around to the south, for the sun is in the same part of the sky in the first and last pictures, but the first was taken at 0801Z and the last at 1101Z. (3 hours difference is 45° rotation). If we can only swing all the way around until we are looking west, we’ll see Greenland.  The winds look fairly light, especially for the North Atlantic. Obuoy 9 0719 webcam Obuoy 9 0720 webcam Obuoy 9 0720B webcam Old O-buoy 10, which stopped transmitting pictures back on June 16, amazingly came back to life. Also it is actually transmitting weather data, on and off, and reports a-hair-below freezing temperatures and light winds. A lot has changed. The buoy has shifted to the right, which may suggest our camera is afloat in its own pool. The yellow shows on the buoy, which shows how much snow has melted. And the melt-water is located differently from last summer.

 Last August 12webcam This June 12Obuoy 10 0612 webcam Today (July 20) Obuoy 10 0720 webcam I tried to warn O-buoy 11 not to drink too much beer in the summer heat, but it wouldn’t listen. The melt-water pool to the lower left partially froze and then thawed, and the lead in the distance has reopened. Obuoy 11 0718 webcam

 This June 12Obuoy 11 0719 webcamObuoy 11 0719B webcam Obuoy 12 seemed to have wet snow in its eye on Saturday, but that likely was mixed with rain, as Lake Chukchi has widened a little, and the spot of melt in the lower right corner is enlarged. Obuoy 12 0718 webcam Obuoy 12 0719 webcam Obuoy 12 0720 webcam The maps show the high continuing to build over the Pole, even as a decent storm I’ll call “Kara” brews up south of the Kara Sea. The sub-freezing spell continues over towards Bering Strait, even as it is quite warm in the strait itself.

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The models seem to come up with different solutions every run, concerning what “Kara” will do. A recent run has it flatten against the building high, and then break into two blobs, one of which will head east, but the other blob rolling retrograde to the west, north of Finland and then under Svalbard and to the top of Greenland. That would be interesting, if it ever happened. (I’ve seen summer storms do that before.)

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE

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The showdown between “Kara” and the Polar high continues to develop, as both have advanced towards each other. A weak Pacific-to_Atlantic flow is developing between the two. Milder air is coming north  through Bering Strait, and may erode the sub-freezing areas on that side.

Faboo sees a misty rain falling.NP3 1 0721 2015cam1_1 O-buoy 9 sees thaw, with temperatures spiking above +2°. Winds remain light.Obuoy 9 9721 webcam O-buoy 10 is swinging in its private melt-water pool, looking more to the right. Winds are nearly calm, and temperatures a hair below freezing.Obuoy 10 0721 webcam O-buoy 11 has finally listened to me and quit the beer, and now likely floats upright in its own melt-water pool. This is a good thing, as that tilt can cause you to get a crick in your neck. It’s weather reports still aren’t transmitting. The lead in the distance has shut again.Obuoy 11 0721 webcam O-buoy 12 may have a slushy snowflake in its eye. Temperatures are right at freezing, and the light breeze has picked up a little to 9 mph. Obuoy 12 0721 webcam TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE  -Faboo Snowblind-

The real news is that Faboo’s view of a rainy landscape abruptly was blocked by wet snow.NP3 1 0721B 2015cam1_2 NP3 1 0721C 2015cam1_1 Now is when it would be nice to have recent data, but the Mass Balance Buoy site, while back on line, is still reporting data from the 17th. All we have is Monday’s data for Faboo, which tells us we drifted south-southeast with winds of about 6 mph, covering  3.63 miles and winding up at 86.251°N, 5.373°W at 2100Z  last night. Temperatures reached a high of +1.1°C at noon and fell to +0.5°C at 2100Z.

The Pacific to Atlantic cross-polar flow may be bringing some of the sub-freezing air from over towards Bering Strait north to the Pole, and some evaporative cooling may be occurring as well. What will be interesting to see is if the snow could accumulate, or is just slush. Even an inch of fluff has the highest albedo of all natural objects, and sometimes can seem to lead to further cooling.

I’ll add more later, but need to go to a meeting.

*******

It looks like Faboo did get dusted. This is midnight, with the sun at its lowest.

NP3 1 0721D 2015cam1_1

We’ll have to wait to see what the temperatures did.

O-buoy 9 sees temperatures back down to freezing.Obuoy 9 0721B webcamO-bouy 10. Where’d that second buoy come from? Am I seeing double? Obuoy 10 0721B webcam O-buoy 11.  The lead has closed with quite a crash.Obuoy 11 0721B webcamO-buoy 12  Slushy snow ends. Breezy.Obuoy 12 0721B webcamObuoy 12 0721C webcam

I’ll discuss maps in the morning .

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WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE —Polar Freeze—

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The maps show “Kara” still facing the Polar High. Current projections have Kara start to do one of those North Atlantic loop-de-loops that occluded storms do, but get a bit carried away doing the top half of the counter-clockwise loop, and regress clear back to Greenland. As the low does this the high pressure will scoop around behind it and raise pressures to the rear. This will create totally backwards winds, for as Kara approaches Fram Strait winds will be north (when winds are usually south as storms approach) and then as Kara fills and fades away north of Greenland winds will be south, (when winds are usually north after a storm passes.) However this is only stuff occurring in the imagination of a model. We shall see what remains to be seen.

In the above maps it is high noon on the Pacific side, yet the stubborn sub-freezing temperatures persist.

To me it looks like the drizzle on Faboo’s lens is frozen this morning, (because of that dry patch on the right-hand side.)NP3 1 0722 2015cam1_1 I double checked the Mass Balance Site, and though the main page is still stuck on July 17, you can get updated data if you dig down to the individual buoys. Buoy 2015D, co-located with Faboo, was coming in at  -0.93° C. No such sub-freezing temperatures are indicated on the above DMI map, but I think Faboo is experiencing a freeze.

This is a little like last summer, where right at the heart of the summer thaw we experienced a cold snap. (Of course by then the North Pole Camera was demolished, down towards Svalbard, but O-buoy 9  was far further north last year, and showed us the refreeze. Although the thaw did get going again in August, it never had time to really get cooking.

So far this summer I felt things are milder, and more like an old-time thaw, but now I’m watching carefully. In the charts below (click to enlarge) 2014 is to the right, and the midsummer freeze barely shows as the red line dipping a little towards the blue freezing line in the second half. It will interesting to see how much of a dip Faboo’s current freeze puts in the graph, or whether it is reflected on the larger picture at all..

DMI2 2014 meanT_2014 DMI2 0722 meanT_2015

Down in Fram Strait, Buoy 2015E: is reporting -1.66° C, which is surprising cold for so far south. ( 77.63° N, 8.36° W).

O-buoy 9 still survives, on the brink of doom. My best guess is that it is now gazing south-southeast.Obuoy 9 0722 webcam Time for work. I’ll catch up on the other O-buoys later.

EVENING UPDATE

O-buoy 9 has survived another day, thanks mostly to relatively light winds of 5 mph and gentle seas.  Of interest is the way we move back and forth, in terms of longitude, in a diurnal manner.Obuoy 9 0722C longitude-1week My guess (and it is a sheer guess) is that the land is quite close behind our back, and tides are effecting us. The only other thing I can think of is the switch between a sea breeze and a land breeze, and that also depends on the land being near. The temperatures dipped just below freezing last night, and jogged irregularly above freezing today. Obuoy 9 0722B webcamObuoy 9 0722C webcam The final picture shows brighter sunlight out to sea from us, as our camera only casts a dim shadow. I wonder if a cliff looms behind our back. The camera is starting to tip a little. If we can sit in our own private melt-water pool, perhaps our view will swing around like camera 10 does.

O-buoy 10 has a a very slight thaw and light winds. It is swinging back in its pool to look at the original buoy.

Obuoy 10 0722B webcam Obuoy 10 0722B webcam Obuoy 10 0722C webcam O-buoy 11 is seeing winds pick up a bit to 7 mph, and a day of thaw end with temperatures just dipping below freezing. The lead is reopening.Obuoy 11 0722 webcam Obuoy 11 0722B webcam Obuoy 11 0722C webcam O-buoy 12 has experienced a cold, gray day, and seems to have wet snow in its eye. Temperatures are a hair below freezing with a breeze up near 10 mph. Co-located Mass Balance Buoy 2014G’s most recent report has temperatures at  -0.11° C.Obuoy 12 0722 webcamObuoy 12 0722B webcamObuoy 12 0722C webcam Not far south of O-buoy 12 Buoy 2015B is reporting -0.34° C.  Down on the coast of Alaska, Buoy 2015A hasn’t reported in over a week, and may have been crunched by a berg, or picked up.

Back towards the Pole, Faboo’s data from yesterday shows temperatures slightly dropped, but doesn’t show we get below freezing. The day’s high was +0.6°C at midnight and were about as flat as you ever see, dropping to +0.2°C at the final report at 2100z. Winds were a little stronger than we’ve seen, up around 11 mph, and we moved 4.86 miles SSW to 86.183°N, 5.654°W. Earlier the co-located Mass Balance buoy 2015D reported us below freezing at -0.93° C, but its more recent report has us at +0.52° C. The view remains gray.NP3 1 0722B 2015cam1_1 The Maps show the battle between “Kara” in the Kara Sea moving into Barents Sea  and the Polar High, (henceforth “Pohi”) continuing. On the virtual world of models Laggard, which has been sitting south of Iceland as a quasi-permanent feature, may finally be budged east to Scandinavia, and may copy Kara by loop-de-looping back towards Greenland, but do so further south than Kara.

The cold continues to hold over the Pacific side. Please don’t remind me I thought the cold would be on the Atlantic side this summer, (and didn’t keep my big mouth closed).DMI2 0722B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0722B temp_latest.big

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE

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“Kara” is continuing to retrograde west across Barents Sea towards Svalbard, as “Pohi” holds its ground but weakens. “Laggard” has budged slightly east under Iceland, but sent another blob into Scandinavia, which hasn’t had the nice, hot summer France has largely enjoyed. (Finland and western Siberia have been especially cool and wet.)

Sub-freezing temperatures continue to rotate about the Pole at a distance. Pockets of thaw exist in Beaufort Sea, and up towards the Pole Faboo is experiencing rain again.

NP3 1 0723 2015cam1_2 The unofficial Mass Balance report has Faboo at +0.14° C this morning, with Buoy 2015E: down in Fram Strait at -0.14°C. Between the two, and slightly to the west, O-buoy 9 has drifted back west to nearly 13° longitude, and sits in calm with temperatures a hair below freezing. The puddle in the lower left corner of the picture seems to have a slight skim of ice, to me. The water is so still a seal or bear would be obvious. Now is their big chance for fame. Where are they?Obuoy 9 0723 webcam Moving around a third of the planet to 76.08° N, 139.67° W we come to O-buoy 11, who seems to have snow in his eye. The ice there is still 1.7 meters thick, though the Mass Balance Buoy seems to sit in a pool half a meter deep. Temperatures are right at freezing, according to O-buoy, but at +0.95° C according to Mass Balance, and winds have been gusty between 2 and 10 mph.Obuoy 11 0723 webcam Obuoy 11 0723 2014I_thick A little further west and north we come to O-buoy 10, at 77.47° N, 143.79° W, where O-buoy shows temperatures a hair above freezing and Mass balance shows a full fledged thaw at +1.50°C. Winds are gusty here too, at 2 to 10 mph, and the view is absolutely gorgeous. I think that melt-water pool deserves to be dubbed “Lake Barent”. Obuoy 10 0723 webcam I’m not sure I trust the bottom-sounder here, which seems to show the ice thickening at the height of the thaw. Obuoy 10 0723 2013F_thick

 Further west and south, at 75.90 N°, 148.85 W°, we come to Buoy 2014F (with no camera) which is also reporting thaw, at +1.53°C. Here the ice, which had grown to over 2 meters thick in March, has dipped below 1 meter thick, and was reported at 93 cm back on July 6.

Then we head all the way west to 77.49 N°, 164.31° W, where it is a chilly -0.10°. The camera here bit the dust, which was a real pity, as it was giving us superb shots of thick ice breaking up. Likely it was buried in a jumble.

Not all that far north of there, at 78.37 N, 163.02 W, Buoy 2014G and O-buoy 12 reside together. They are interesting because they have been drifting straight north to the Pole.Obuoy 12 0723 latitude-1week

It is important to remember, when looking at thickness maps, that the thick ice may drift north, making the ice seem to get thinner at its old location.  Temperatures here are at -0.08° C according to Mass Balance, and O-buoy seems to agree. I think the sky and snow are that odd color due to an invasion of alien bacteria, though I could be wrong. Lake Chukchi looks a little more full.Obuoy 12 0723 webcam

EVENING UPDATE  

Faboo has continued to drift SSW in diminishing winds under gray skies. The official record shows that yesterday we crossed 3.09 miles to wind up at 86.144°N, 5.985°W. The temperature crashed below freezing for roughly six hours, reaching the days low of -0.7°C at 0300Z, but had perked up to +0.3°C by the next report at 0600Z. The day’s high was +0.7°C at 1500Z, and then we sagged back to +0.5°C by the final report at 2100Z. The unoffical Mass Balance reports have shown us down to +0.14° C this morning and then back up to +0.63° C this afternoon. The camera shows a drizzle starting, which I don’t think is freezing.NP3 1 0723B 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0723C 2015cam1_1 I left the O-buoys on all day, and every time I came dashing through the house I’d sneak a peek. However now that I sit down to focus they are unavailable. However I did save two from O-buoy 9, which seems to be backing west into thicker ice.Obuoy 9 0723B webcam  Obuoy 9 0723C webcam It is interesting to think that we may have just drifted, on this hunk of ice, through waters that are mapped as “ice free” and now are in an area which may show as 50% ice-covered, yet never moved from a most definite piece of ice. It changes your idea of what “extent” means.

I have to do some chores. Will return.

*******

It is still drizzling at Faboo, but the Mass Balance thermometer reports temperatures down to +0.10°C. (They have no time stamp, but I’m starting to wonder if they post at midnight and noon, Greenwich Mean Time.) The picture is pretty gloomy at midnight.NP3 1 0723D 2015cam1_1 At temperatures this close to freezing it doesn’t take much of an increase in precipitation to drag cooler air down and change rain to snow.

The O-buoy cameras are still not reporting.

The DMI maps show “Kara” stalled, and weaker, as “Pohi” pushes across the Pole. The chill on the Pacific side is starting to make the news on Skeptic sites, as is the ice lingering in Hudson Bay. (An icebreaker has been diverted from scientific studies to help clear a path so heating oil can get to a coastal community.)

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FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE 

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“Kara” continues to inch across Barents Sea towards Svalbard, as Pohi stands tough at the Pole and shunts Kara towards northern Greenland (and poor, defenseless O-buoy 9). Behind Kara a tiny bit of high pressure is building northeast of Finland, (which seems the closest thing poor Finland is getting to a Scandinavian High this summer). This tiny bit of high pressure is the start of a wrap-around arm of Pohi, which will scoop Kara across the Atlantic, theoretically first giving Fram Strait north winds, and later south winds. We’ll see about that.

It is high noon over towards Bering Strait, and still the sub-freezing areas persist.

Faboo continues to look over a dank and drizzly world of gray. I suppose we are paying for all the beautiful weather of last week. Despite all the wet, Lake Faboo looks about the same.NP3 1 0724 2015cam1_1 O-buoys are still off line. Mass Balance buoy 2015E, down in Fram strait, was reporting a thaw at +1.08°, and then the next report it came in at -1.25° C. Diurnal? Could be, as it is pretty far south, at 77.69° North.

Over on the other side, our Mass balance buoys closest to Bering Strait report a break in their sub-freezing air, as 2015B went from -0.30°C to +0.57°, and 2014G went from -0.03°C to +0.18°C. I suppose some Pacific air is involved in the general swirl. You can see some cooler air got swept into Bering Strait, despite the fact it is noon, so some milder may have been swirled north. That area has been the graveyard of storms rippling around “Pohi”. Currently it holds faint traces of Baltzipson, plus some unnamed storm that faded south of Bering Strait. The fact it is so persistently cold over there tickles the part of my brain that wonders about some cooling effect involved, when storms collapse and fade. When I’m rich I’ll hire an intern to do all the research for me, but I’m not rich yet, so off to work I go.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE

Faboo continues his/her dismal drift through dank, dark drizzle. It is somewhat uninspiring, and therefore to liven things up a bit I think I’ll title my next post, “The Clash Between Titans,” or some such thing, and will freely use hyperbole while describing “Kara” and “Nohi” doing their little dance together. The difference between Kara’s low pressure and Nohi’s high pressure is tightening the isobars a bit, and the calm has given way to breezes. I think “stiffening breezes” sounds better, and more ominous.

Yesterday’s official report shows the winds picking up from 4 to 13 mph, which is not exactly a lashing gale, but perhaps I can stagger about like a news reporter giving a live storm report from a parking lot outside the newsroom, and make things more dramatic. Also temperatures have been dropping. There is a sort of drama in that, (if you don’t mention it is only half a degree). We climbed up to a high of +0.7° C at noon, and then slipped back. Closer and closer came we to freezing. At 2100Z, as the dread hour of midnight loomed like black death, we reached the very verge of calamitous crystallization, +0.1°C, and then….and then…and then…we waited for today’s data, tomorrow. Meanwhile we drifted SSW  3.69 miles to 86.094°N, 6.266°W. If we continue in this dire direction we will miss Fram Strait to the east and crash into Greenland.

NP3 1 0724B 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0724C 2015cam1_1

If Faboo does hold his/her present course (extremely unlikely, unless you are the sort of fool climate scientist who draws straight “trend lines”), it will wind up down where O-buoy 9 needs no hype or hyperbole. In fact, if you have seven minutes to spare, you should watch “O-buoy 9: The movie” from the 25 minute mark to the current happy ending (July 21). It is sure to win an Oscar in that little-known category, “Sea Ice Time Lapse Films.” See it here:  http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy9/movie

Just today there was an amazing variety of scenery. I just wish we’d swing around and look west, and see Greenland again. We are into our second day of thawing, and the breeze has stiffened to 22 mph at times. I’m amazed this camera is still on its feet, after all the smashing and crashing it has seen.

Obuoy 9 0724 webcamObuoy 9 0724B webcamObuoy 9 0724C webcam O-buoy 10 has recovered to freezing from -2°C, with a breeze up around 14 mph. Lake Beaufort still has no outlet, and seems to be slowly expanding. There have been dustings of snow. (With the camera floating and the view shifting, it isn’t as easy to compare pictures.)Obuoy 10 0724 webcam Obuoy 10 0724B webcam Obuoy 11 saw the lead across the pressure ridge seeming very wide this morning, but then close right up. It too has seen temperatures climb back up to freezing in a gusty wind up to 16 mph. Wet snow seems to currently be flaking the lens.Obuoy 11 0724 webcam Obuoy 11 0724C webcam O-buoy 12 saw winds drop to calm, and then pick up to 8 mph from the opposite direction (though what direction I can’t say, as the buoy has swung about so much. A very rough guess would be from south to north) and temperatures fall from a slight thaw to below freezing.Obuoy 12 0724 webcam Obuoy 12 0724B webcam The DMI maps show “Kara” has crept across to Svalbard, as “Pohi” pushes toward the Pole, squeezed from the backside by “Beau”, which has appeared on the north coast of Canada (I should have seen that coming, but didn’t). I also should have expected a southerly flow behind Kara, but the warmth up into southern Finland surprised me. The cold hangs tough on the Pacific side, and that is where my focus has been.

I am convinced there are always too many things to focus on, and one will always be surprised, however the better meteorologists learn to constantly shift their focus through a repertoire of focuses they deem important. It is not that they don’t get surprised, but rather they are the first to be surprised, and therefore the first to be alerted.

DMI2 0724B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0724B temp_latest.big

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE 

DMI2 0725 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0725 temp_latest.big

(Yawn) As usually occurs, when you have resorted to some cheap hyperbole to generate interest, (which is a general practice of any Alarmist of any ilk), you awake the next morning and discover you look like a Chicken Little, and have displayed “The Dash Of The Frightened” rather than “Clash If The Titans.” And indeed “Kara” looks weaker this morning, and the isobars between Kara and “Pohi” look more relaxed and less windy. Blast. I was hoping for a gale to liven things up a bit.

Even the chill over towards Bering Strait looks less newsworthy, though it does look more windy in the East Siberian Sea. “Beau” remains stalled north of mainland Canada, the low bogged down inland in east Siberia is “Karazip”, and the low now entering the Kara Sea is “Karason.”

Some interesting stuff is occurring off the map, in the north Atlantic, as the summer doldrums, with a sort of semi-permanent low I called “Laggard” stuck south of Greenland, finally on the move. Laggard shifted east as a disorganized mess, and part of it (Laggardson) is now moving into France as a decent summer storm. It will rotate up into the Baltic and then retrograde back as Kara has done, but further south, and it does so the next Atlantic low will not stall and lag under Iceland, so I’ll dub it “Nolag.” It will get caught up with Laggardson and do a bolo, fujiwhara dance between the North Sea and the waters off Norway, and the map forecast to look like this next Tuesday:UK Met 0725 26126844 Of course most of this will not show on our DMI polar maps, so we will pay no attention to it. For the most part I think we’ll watch how Pohi defeats all invaders, and keeps high pressure in charge of the Pole.

Without a good summer gale, the ice pack remains fairly solid.  I’m not sure whether the way the ice-extent graph flattens at this time, every year, is due to the powers of the melt running up against more solid ice, or due to an adjustment those in charge attempt to make for the melt-water pools being seen as open water by satellites. In any case, the melt continues slower than last year, though just barely.DMI2 0725 icecover_current_new Pohi will need to give us more sunshine, if we are to get the summer thaw above normal.DMI2 0725 meanT_2015 However at the moment Faboo continues to show us a gloomy view, with Lake Faboo fully and slightly larger, but the small pool that was starting to form in the lower left three weeks ago now completely gone. The Pole does not look remotely “ice free” to me.NP3 1 0725 2015cam1_1 Down south of there O-buoy 9 came through a bit of a blow still fairly upright, and sees winds back down to nearly calm. The thaw continues, and I must admit the berg we view from seems lower to the water and less impressive. Obuoy 9 0725 webcam

O-buoy 10 is seeing breezier conditions with winds around 13 mph. It has been experiencing subfreezing conditions, but is creeping back up towards thaw. Lake Beaufort may have slightly skimmed with ice in areas protected from the breeze.Obuoy 10 0725 webcam O-buoy 11 sees lighter breezes of 11 mph, and may have seen some thawing, but the pool to the lower left appears to have a skim of ice around its edge. The lead in the distance has been constantly opening and slamming shut, and I’ve been interested to see the pressure ridge actually grow at the time of year they usually  shrink. (Remember that 9/10th if the ice is under water. Pressure ridges have roots that stick down into waters that melt them, and as the roots are reduced upwards the top of the ridge usually slumps downwards, even as it wilts in the sun.) Also of interest to me are some sizable bergs on the far side of the lead, to the upper right.Obuoy 11 0725 webcam O-buoy 12 has recently been experiencing the coldest sub-freezing temperatures, and a breeze of over 10 mph (though it has died down some since this picture was taken), which has me wondering if Lake Chukchi is looking a bit slushy or not. If not, (sunshine may tell us), then that water may be more salty than we usually think of melt-water being.Obuoy 12 0725 webcam With that I suppose I’ll conclude this particular post, as its getting too long. “Concluding” consists of going through the post to correct the spelling, for though these posts are basically  a notepad of observations and stray ideas, it does aggravate me to go back through old posts and spot glaring typos. Spellcheck is not infallible. For example, rather than “spot glaring typos” I just wrote “spit glaring typos”, and spellcheck didn’t mind it one bit.

I’ve got chores to do and other things to research, but part of my mind will be busy thinking up a new title.

LOCAL VIEW —Weeds—

It is a hot and humid Sunday, with air temperatures in the evening over 80°F, but what gets you is the dew point, currently at 73°F. You can break a sweat by lifting your pinkie. Fortunately it is the Lord’s Day, a day of rest, when weeding is forbidden. Rather than my sitting-about being proof I own the sin of sloth, it is proof I am spiritual. Will wonders never cease?

Of course, there is a question about writing. Is that not work? Am I not working on the Lord’s Day?

Fortunately I’ve never made money writing. In truth it has gotten in the way of my becoming fabulously wealthy, and lighting my cigars with hundred dollar bills. Therefore my writing cannot be called work. In fact, even when I bash my head against writer’s block, or write experiencing such anguish that my pores all become polka-dots of red,  it is not work, or so I’ve been told.

It being Sunday, confession is good for the soul, and therefore I confess to you there have been times I’ve wanted to punch people in the nose, when they say, “Writing is not work.”

Be that as it may, the truth is that, when your writing makes no money, it does tend to become a form of star gazing. Rather than getting to work, you are avoiding the weeding. Because I didn’t mind being a staving artist, but did not wish to become a starved artist, I did concede to weeding a little bit, rather than only writing poetry. (Unlike many poets, I’m remarkably pragmatic at times.) In fact I became so pragmatic I actually, to my own astonishment, got rather good at weeding.

You may think I’m making this up, and no poet could possibly ever get so good at weeding, but I got so good at weeding I was able to raise five children by weeding.

I was able to do this because it turns out rich people do like the idea of gardens, but don’t like the reality, which involves sweat and grunt-work and worst of all, weeding. They will pay good money to poets if poets will do a bit of weeding for them, however one of the first things I learned is that the poet must never admit he is a poet. Rich people did not become rich by being foolish with their money, and if you say you are a poet they immediately step backwards with a hand protectively over their wallet, for they are wise to the ways of the world, and know that “poet” is just a word for “a crafty beggar.”

Therefore I would tell them I was a “landscaper.”

You’d be surprised how many landscapers majored in English in college, and once dreamed of being poets. An English degree is in many ways useless, in terms of making money, unless you are willing to be unscrupulous.

The unscrupulous English majors sell their souls, and become speech-writers for lying politicians, or work writing lying advertisements for Madison Avenue, or write what they are told to regurgitate for newspapers and call themselves “journalists” when they are merely parrots in an echo-chamber.  I feel sad for those fellows, though they do enjoy a certain time of wealth. One of the rules of poetry is that, if you want the founts to gush, you need to be honest and stand by truth, but if you sell your soul and become unscrupulous the well gets plugged up and the poetry dries up and you look in the mirror and know you are a has-been,  a poet who could have been champion but who sold his birthright for a mass of pottage.

Therefore the really good poets wind up as landscapers, but then face a second temptation. It turns out that the wives of rich men have realized how empty wealth is, and see the fellow in the garden holds more poetry than a millionaire, and try to purchase it, which results in poets falling and becoming mere gigolos in a garden.

Fortunately I was not tested in this respect, partly because my wife was young and extremely beautiful, and partly because my customers were older ladies who attended church regularly. Even so, my wife did refer to my customers as “my harem”.

In any case, I cannot hate either weeds or weeding, considering weeds fed my family figuratively, and at times literally.

Some weeds are delicious. Purslane tastes like beet greens, but is less stringy, more succulent, and tastes better if you get it at the right time. Stinging nettles are excellent spinach with surprising side effects, (in terms of stamina, not crazed brains), if you pick it (with gloves) when it first shoots up in the spring, because the sting vanishes when you boil it. All sorts of other weeds are edible, but have somewhat dubious flavors and can lead to astounding flatulence, if eaten straight. But who eats mustard greens straight? You have to know how to mix your weeds. The most superb spinach is lamb’s quarters, in my opinion, and it turns out lamb’s quarters was a staple in the vanished Mound Builder cultures, (due more to the quality of its seeds than the delicious leaves).

And I could go on, but you likely would think I was just inventing the excuses poets are prone to, when it comes to avoiding getting down on your knees in the dirt, and pulling the darn weeds up.

When I was younger, my customer’s gardens were weed-free, but when I got home I was tired, and my own garden tended to be a bit weedy. And now that I am older, and have managed to create a situation where my garden is actually part of my Farm-childcare business, my garden is still weedy, because the dratted thing is too large. In fact I have conceded half the garden to the weeds, because I am so old and pathetic I couldn’t even plant that side, this year. Fortunately my long study of English gets me off the hook, and when people wonder why that side is “weedy” I tell them it is “fallow”.

That still leaves me with half a garden to weed, and I’ve been fighting the good fight this past week. Much to my joy, my middle son found time in his busy schedule to join me on two days. He has a completely different strategy. Where I slowly plod down a row, leaving it utterly weed-free, he zooms down a row, only weeding by each plant, and leaving all other weeds in place. However you now can see there are rows, and beans don’t hold up top leaves like drowning swimmers midst thriving green.

As I worked I could not help but think to myself what a long love-hate relationship I have had with weeds. In 1973 I wrote not one, but two very long poems about a young poet complaining about weeds getting in the way of poetry, and a wise old farmer giving the young complainer sage advise.

How ironic it is that now I myself am the sage old farmer, and still I am wishing I could write poetry, as I weed. Usually poetry and weeding mix like oil and water, but last week I composed as I weeded, and then rushed to my pick-up truck and scrawled a rough draft of this:

When you sit back to think, the weeds keep growing.
They don’t take breaks, so you’d best keep going.
When mosquitoes swarm weeds won’t be slowing
So think all you want, but keep on hoeing.

Weeds don’t take breaks. They don’t say, “Poor me!
I have a deep thought! To dwell upon it
I need you to pull all my weeds for me
So I can sit back and finish this sonnet.”

The weeds keep growing in my soul as well.
If I sit back to think, my sloth will swell.
Poetic intentions pave roads to hell
So I must weed on, and I know it well

But pause. I pen this poem. I can’t resist.
My Love dubs me, “Hopeless Optimist.”

(In case you don’t get it, optimism is based on hope, and therefore to be a “hopeless optimist” is an oxymoron.) (However the point is that I wrote that sonnet, to some degree, while weeding, and therefore weeding does not necessarily oppose sonnets.)

And so a hot and humid Day of Rest draws to a close. All the static on the AM band of the radio is fading, the heat lightning to our west has died down, and it looks like we might again escape the thunderous wrath of muggy aIr being replaced by dry air. Tomorrow should be cooler and drier, and a good day to weed.

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JULY SNOW IN HAWAII AND AFRICA

There are shenanigans going on at NOAA, concerning adjustments made to the temperature record, which make recent years look warmer than they actually are, when compared to past years. Some suggest  this has been done for purely political reasons, because of growing disbelief in “Global Warming”,  and because of a political need to be able to claim things such as “Last May was the warmest ever.”  Rather than properly scrutinizing such claims, the mainstream media seems to merely take what it is told and to run with it.  Rather than report they regurgitate.

The scrutinizing is left to others, who find it quite easy to cast considerable doubt on NOAA’s new, adjusted way of measuring temperatures. I myself wrote a post the day after they came out with the scheme, pointing out it made little sense to take temperature readings from the sun-baked, mosquito-infested arctic tundra, where temperatures can easily top 90° F, and to use those land-based readings to guess what temperatures might be out over the ice-choked waters of the Arctic Sea, where temperatures seldom get up to 40° F.  Such “homogenization” makes no  sense, yet NOAA’s “new way” did it.

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/arctic-sea-ice-refutes-global-warming-karl-et-al-report/

Another way of scrutinizing the “new way of measuring temperatures” is to compare it with the temperatures NOAA actually uses, when making forecasts. NOAA doesn’t want to use “adjusted” or “homoginized” temperatures, when  it runs its GISS model. It wants to use “real” temperatures, and to make sure they are as accurate as possible, because even a slight variance in the data put into the forecasting tool can make a big difference, with the difference getting larger and and larger as the model forecasts farther and farther into  the future.  (It is sometimes suggested that even a butterfly flapping its wing can make a difference, ten days down the road.) Therefore, over at the Weatherbell site, Dr, Ryan Maue simply made a graph of the “real” temperatures, used for real forecasts, and rather than the past  May being the warmest ever, it appears to be the “eighth warmest since 1978″.

Of course at times one gets fed up with pointing things out, and being utterly ignored. Rather than  reporting, the media goes right on regurgitating, seeking out hot places to report upon, and utterly ignoring the cold places. At this point I’m afraid I resort to less than level headed and spiritual behavior. Even though I’ve just come from church, and know I should be gentle when I point out errors, and only remonstrate in a  fatherly manner when I see a lack of truthfulness in others, I resort to sarcastic potshots. I’m not sure the Bible actually states, “Thou shalt not resort to sarcastic potshots”, but I think it is implied.

One of the best sinful potshots, which I confess I’ve succumbed to employing, is to simply counter the media’s silly reporting of every heatwave they can find with reports of snowfalls. The media avoids reporting snowfalls in their silly  focus on heat, and it throws a wrench in their works to even mention the white stuff.  For example, you can post pictures of a July snowfall atop Mauna Kea Volcano on Hawaii.

Silly Snow 1 2015-07-17snow04Silly Snow 2 ScreenHunter_2562-Jul.-17-18.37Now, if you were a good reporter you might mention that the observatory up there is at an altitude of 13,796 feet, and up that high, while July snow is unusual,  it isn’t unheard of. However that  would be mature behavior, and, because we have been reduced to playing tit-for-tat with an immature media, you don’t mention that. Instead you sensationalize, and report the National Park is closed, and the rangers have posted:

“The road to the summit of Maunakea is closed to the public at the Visitors Information Station due to icy road conditions at the summit. After road inspection this morning, the ranger reports ice on the upper summit ridge and switchback, the east/ west summit ridge, and the UKIRT-IRTF roads. He also reported mixed rain and snow, fog, there is an inch and a half of frozen snow on the summit and moderate winds. This message will be updated accordingly as conditions change. (Mauna Kea Rangers on July 17, 2015 at 5:55 a.m.)”

In this manner, rather than educating the public, you can take advantage of the fact the general public assumes Hawaii is warm, and create an impression. After all, the mainstream media is more interested in impressions than in reality, isn’t it?

In the same way, the general public assumes Africa is a hot place. There is no need to mention South Africa is far south of the equator, and has passes up at higher altitudes, or even that it is winter down there. Simply mention the words “Africa” and “Snow”, and beat the media at its own silly game by posting pictures like this:

Silly Snow 3 snow1Silly snow 4 snow3-henn-417x313OK. Now, to see if you have been listening, I am going to show you a picture of a snow-covered farm in southern Chile, in South America, where they had up to 80 cm of snow.   You have to invent headlines and a brief article. (The only stipulation is that you are absolutely forbidden from saying, “It’s chilly in Chile”.)

Silly Snow 6 20150714183254No! No! No! That was utterly wrong! First, you mentioned that it was winter in the southern hemisphere. That is utterly unnecessary. Then you pointed out southern Chilie includes Cape Horn and juts down towards Antarctica. That utterly spoils the effect. The only reason I’m not flunking you is because you did mention there was “up to 80 cm of snow” even though there is not that much snow in the picture.

I’ll  give you one more chance. Here is a picture from a railway station, yesterday in Australia:Silly Snow 5 466912-5e729cba-2c1a-11e5-aa8f-85f55b955825 What do you mean, “At what altitude was this picture taken?” Just who do you think you are? An honest reporter of the old school? Modern reporters never ask questions like that. Please remember, “regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate”.

If you are an alarmist, you might try suggesting this snow is actually warmer than snow used to be. There are some who will believe you.

Silly Snow 7 2A9B8C0400000578-3164774-Queenslander_Billy_Brislane_pictured_running_through_a_snow_clad-a-119_1437112686604However if you are a Skeptic, you must post all the pictures you can find of snow in July. It is actually a refreshing job, when it is hot and muggy outside. Here is a great resource, for finding all the cold, frosty, snowy news items the mainstream media always neglects to report:

http://iceagenow.info/

LOCAL VIEW —July Jackets—

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The map shows yesterday’s hot and humid air driven out to sea, and the front rammed clear down to Georgia, yet it managed to pass under us. We didn’t even get a sprinkle. I was a bit amazed, watching it happen. You could see the cool air clash with the hot, and brew up a squall line that NOAA noted for its longevity, and Joseph D’Aleo posted on his superb blog at the Weatherbell site. (The picture overlays many separate radar shots of the same squall line.)

Squall Line 20150713_summary1 If you follow the direction the red arrow points you can see the energy passed well south of New Hampshire. We just had a muggy morning gradually dry out, without a sprinkle of rain. I headed off to a barbecue in the early evening, and everyone was wearing shorts and short-sleeved shirts, as the shadows from the trees at the end of the lawn gradually extended over and the warming sun was lost. Then someone remarked, “Sheesh! is it ever cold!”

I looked around, and noticed everyone was hugging themselves. It was like it hadn’t penetrated anyone’s consciousness that a sunny July evening could possibly be cold. But it was downright uncomfortable, and as soon as people woke to the fact many headed off to cars and came back wearing summer jackets. I’d come in my wife’s car, and had no jacket, so I got so close to the grill I was practically in among the steaks. As soon as the meat was done we moved indoors.

The good thing about such cold shots in the north winds is that often they don’t last long. I’ve seen winter days when the temperatures fall all morning and you expect the cold to become extreme with the advent of evening, but instead the cold wave relents, and temperatures don’t drop after dark, and can even rise a degree or two. However those are winter events. In July you only expect to don a jacket when east winds bring fog and drizzle inland from the cold Gulf of Maine. You don’t expect it when it is sunny and the wind is north. I can only assume this shot from the north contained a packet of air from Hudson Bay, which still has a surprising amount of ice on it, for the middle of July.

Hudson Bay Ice extent July 16 CMMBCTCA By this morning that shot of cold was long gone. Rather than Hudson Bay the wind was from the Canadian Prairie, baking under long summer days and barely cooled by short nights where the twilight never completely fades. However the shot of cold activated some instinct in me, and I got out of bed thinking I should get going, in terms of firewood.

Now is the time to lay down the less desirable trees, and to let them lie as the leaves suck the sap from the wood before withering. Then cut them up. Then split them. Then stack the wood to dry in the summer sun, so they don’t hiss in the stove, wasting heat boiling off sap, but burn clear and hot.

Dream on, old man. You are sixty-two years old, and it will take you a week to do what you once did in the morning.

Now I do stuff sort of as an exhibition, for the children at our Farm-childcare. “This is the way things were done a long, long time ago.” However it does not seem so long ago to me.

Not that I ever used a cross-cut saw. However there is a film of the center of this town after the 1938 hurricane, with trees down left and right, and not a chainsaw is in sight. All the local folk are out at either end of cross-cut saws. Some look like they are out of practice, but all know how to use such saws, how to always pull and never push. It is amazing how swiftly they cut through the logs.

I do remember when people built houses with hand tools, with saws and hammers and drills that had no batteries or cords or pneumatic air lines. It did take longer, but the men were stronger.

In the 1700’s the average worker burned off over 4000 calories a day. Few men work half as hard, now. Now we expect weekends off, but farmers never had weekends, for milk cows don’t stop making milk on Saturdays and Sundays, and chickens don’t stop eating.

The strange thing is that some think we are worse off. We work less and have more leisure, but they take their leisure and use it to gripe, often complaining they work too hard, or aren’t paid enough, or are hurt emotionally and should not have to work at all.

Idiots. I just wish I could still work as hard as I once did. God knows there was a glory in it, and someday I’ll write a book about it. But tonight I’ll just think about those men of the past, who worked twelve hour days, full of faith in a thing called “progress”, and believing we would rejoice to have the things they lacked. I’ll look back a half century, to when I was twelve and knew nothing of work, and didn’t like the prospect of work much at all,  until I saw old men loving it, and became curious about what could be so good about it.
Free wood is seldom free. The gnarled apple
Really required a pneumatic splitter
And I had but a maul, but youth will grapple
Ridiculous tasks: I was a hard hitter
And relished each victory, each split log
And the sheen of sweet sweat; the impossible
Challenge; the twisted, bumpy, Dryad-eyed frog
Of old apple attacked, wedges buried full,
But struck with a final karate scream
And torn open like a closed-case, long-shut book:
A hundred-fifty years of history
Lay exposed to the sun…Long time it took
For that scythe, hung in fork of young tree,
To be swallowed by growth, a tool forgotten
But a man now recalled, though flesh be rotten.

LOCAL VIEW —Making Hay—

Making Hay pa_neh_17 Nowadays when you say, “There is money in growing grass”, people immediately assume you are talking about growing marijuana, which seems sad to me, for in my experience marijuana rots character, while working in hay fields built character.

Now, in some neighborhoods, when the lawn grows too long in front of your house you can actually get a ticket, and a member of the town Parks and Recreation Department will show up and mow it and charge you more money. If you don’t have the time to cut it yourself you must hire a landscaper, which I once was, and I didn’t work for free. Growing grass is costly, for most people.

My grandfather was born in 1888, and at that time there were no cars. He was twenty years old before the first Model T rolled off the first assembly line in 1908.Modle T images Before automobiles became affordable, gasoline was not the important fuel. Hay was. And, because you could not grow hay in big cities, it had to be imported from the country. Back then “teamsters” actually handled a team of horses or oxen, carrying loads of 12,000 pounds in various types of freight wagons.Conestoga_Wagon_1883 The above wagon was a big “Conestoga”  wagon, but smaller versions were the typical “Covered” wagon of Wild West Movies. They were the U-haul Trucks of the time, and while the appearance of railways around 1860 reduced their importance, they were still common when my grandfather was a boy, and they were powered by hay.

Hay was important. Rather than Big Oil there was Big Hay, and rather than OPEC there was a local HPEC, and New Hampshire was a sort of Saudi Arabia. Profit was involved, and it is amazing the stones men will move for a profit. They will move stones to create hay fields, and move stones to create amazing stone bridges to transport the hay south to big cities. The physical labor involved is beyond the imagination of flabby modern men, and this includes the cutting of the hay, which was done by a long knife on a stick called a scythe. We call marathon runners “athletic”, but they only run for around three hours. When you look at the man swinging the scythe in the painting at the start of this post, you should understand he would keep working from the moment the dew was dry to sunset, which is often over twelve hours, in the summer.

I could write a book about this subject, and hopefully will, but for now I’ll just say that, back when I mowed lawns to feed a wife and five children, it used to exasperate me that I was cutting grass and not making use of it. One time I made up a song as I mowed, and a verse of it went:

I roll my eyes to God. What would the Good Lord say
To see me cutting grass, and never making hay?
Hay could feed some sheep that would feed and clothe the poor.
It makes me want to weep. What am I mowing for?

However I’m just a cantankerous anachronism. Where I can recall sweating under the hot sun, loading bales of hay into the back of a pick-up truck out on a farmer’s field, that sort of sweat is out of date. Now they create big rolls of hay that are moved by a sort of forklift attachment to a tractor, which shoves a pole into the center of the round bale, much like I once used a forklift to shove a pole into the center of huge rolls of carpet when I worked at a carpet warehouse.  There is no need for muscles, farmhands, or the work ethic.

Fine with me. I’m too old to impress the babes with big biceps, and I thought that sort of strutting was stupid even when I was young enough to impress the babes with my big biceps.  I wanted them to appreciate my mind, not my body, so I tended to strut my poetry, and sadly learned women are as bad as men are, when it comes to caring about the body before the mind.  Or, I should say, they seemed to care more for my biceps than my poetry.

However a lot of the poetry was about the Yankee work ethic, and how I learned, (against my will, I confess, especially when I was younger), that there is a beauty in toil, in effort, in striving through the final mile of a marathon. There is a harvest. You do “make hay” before you “hit the hay”. (Not that anyone uses those expressions, these days). You do “reap what you sow”.

However I am pragmatic enough to see no sensible person is going to use a scythe when a mower works better. Sometimes it is hard enough to get the lawn mowed even using a mower, especially when your mower is 25 years old, like mine is, and breaks down a lot. I was having a hard enough time keeping the playground and front yard of our Farm-childcare mowed, and the back field accidentally turned into a hay field of lush clover, timothy and crown fetch, knee deep.

I didn’t mow it to make hay. I mowed it because if you don’t mow that field little trees invade with shocking speed, as do wild roses that smell nice in June but stab little children the rest of the year. Also a member of the staff has a phobia about ticks, and dislikes long grass. Also a little boy is a baseball fanatic, and it is hard to play ball in long grass. Lastly, if there is ever a national emegancy, that field may need to revert to a corn field, and it is much easier to plow a lawn than a young forest. So I mowed it, but hay was not a thing I was thinking about.

However I mowed it on a perfect day for haying, just after a front had passed with thunder muttering in the hills, and then the air became dry and Canadian. Nor was it the Canadian trajectory from the ice-choked waters of Hudson Bay. It was from the sun baked prairies. If there was any moisture in the air, it was squeezed out coming over the Adirondack and Green Mountains. Was it dry?  Well, you could spit, and it wouldn’t hit the ground.

I couldn’t help but notice that all the Clover, Timothy and Vetch I’d cut was being parched into just about the most superb hay you could ever want. It has all the incidental stuff goats like, as well, (the trailing vines of bramble and occasional shoots of goldenrod). But I had so many other things to do that I couldn’t stop to make hay. Yet I kept walking through that field, over and over, and I couldn’t help see that superb hay, just laying there, green and crisp, like money in the bank, even though grass isn’t worth it any more.

Finally I just couldn’t stand it. I had to make hay. I don’t really understand my reasoning; maybe I’m some form of hay-addict; but I had to figure out some way to make haying practical even when it isn’t. I decided I would teach the little kids at our Farm-childcare “The History Of Haying In New England”.

Usually this sort if idea goes over like a lead balloon. This time the kids had a blast, though I’m not sure they believed me when I told them vehicles once ran on hay and not on gasoline. Mostly they just liked raking up the hay, stuffing it into empty grain bags, lugging the grain bags to the back of the pick up truck, and,  (joy of joys), riding in the back of a pick up truck with the hay to the barn.

I didn’t over-do it. Modern children have short attention spans, (and lack the stoic ability to endure I have seen ingrained in Navajo girls only four years old, trudging uncomplaining across scorching desert), so at the first sign they were not finding it fun any more I ended the “lesson”. They surprised me by lasting over 90 minutes.

I think I did well, for later they were whining, “When can we go haying again?” This allowed me the chance to point out that you cannot hay in the rain, and must “make hay while the sun shines”.

It was amazing to me how, as soon as I decided that hay was worth gathering, I was hit by an anxiety it might rain and spoil my hay. My awareness of the weather instantly increased tenfold. I mean, who the heck cares if a hot and muggy wind shifts from southwest to south-southeast? Modern people don’t give a fig, but the old hay farmers broke into a sweat, because they started working twice as fast. As soon as the wind swings from southwest to southeast, Atlantic mist starts creeping north, and showers start to appear.

This was a big deal when your income could be considerably reduced by a mere sprinkle of rain. This made those old farmers super aware.

What does that mean about us, and what progress has done to us? Have we become super unaware?

Due to my efforts, a small bunch of kids are less unaware about the obscure subject of hay. We gathered perhaps $40.00 worth, before showers came north and spoiled the rest (though it will make good mulch for the garden). I mused how we had stopped after only 90 minutes whereas, in the old days, the entire family would have worked until they dropped to get every last blade of grass in. When I thought about it, I was sort of glad I didn’t have to work so hard. It isn’t all bad, being modern.

But that is no reason to become super unaware, or to forget the old ways, or the old expressions. What can replace, “Make hay while the sun shines”? Hmm. “Save your document before the Computer crashes”?  Perhaps that works, but to me it doesn’t have the same charm.

The south-southeast winds from south of Cape Cod are about to be replaced by Canadian air, perhaps from ice-choked Hudson Bay. That ought give us some thunder, and then cool breezes and dry air and perfect haying weather.

20150715 satsfcnps 20150715 rad_ec_640x480_12

ARCTIC SEA ICE —Breaking Up Is Hard To Do—(Updated 11 times and concluded)

These are the days the sun beats down 24 hours a day on the Pole, and it actually gains more heat than it loses. The heat should add up until warm fronts come down from the north, but this never happens. A little thing called the Arctic Ocean gets in the way. Melting its ice sucks up all the extra heat, and even in July cold fronts come down from the north.

The intense sunshine turns out to be rather feeble, compared to the ice, for the sunshine has only two months to do its stuff, but the ice had ten months to not only form, but to chill to a degree wherein it can be twenty or thirty degrees below freezing, and it can take a long time simply warming the ice up to the freezing point. Then, once you get to that magic point, the phase-change between solid H2O and liguid H20 involves all sorts of heat just plain vanishing, as it becomes “latent”, in the fluid molecules of water. By the time the sunshine has really started its melting its allotted time of two months is over, and freezing starts.

In the end it turns out the breaking up of sea-ice is not a top-down matter, but rather bottom-up, due to warm waters under the ice, or else a ice-transport matter, due to the ice being transported south to warmer climes. In other words, breaking up the sea-ice is not easy, for either you have to transport a warm sea north beneath it, or you have to transport it down to the warm sea.

On these posts we only deal with the superficial, for we lack access to what is going on under the ice. It is down deep that the important shifts in currents occur,  but we are merely passengers bobbing on top. However even so we are able to refute a lot of Global Warming theory, for it is even more superficial than we are.

We focus on the progress of “Faboo”, which is our name for the North Pole Camera. This year it is behind schedule, heading south. Yesterday it only crossed 2.01 miles, nudging south and ending at 86.626°N, 3.901°W. (Westward movement halted at 3.931°W, at 1500z, and now we creep east.) Winds were light, and even calm at 0300z. During this calm we created a mico-climate, and temperature spiked up to +4.6°C, and then plummeted to +1.5°C  at 0600z, as the slight winds again blew. These mirco-climates are due to the objects sitting around absorbing sunlight, which Faboo demonstrates by showing us that buoys sit in pools and snow-stakes in dents, which demonstrates the darker objects catch the heat of the sunlight, and may inflate temperature readings.

NP3 2 0711 2015cam2_1

The best example of transport we have is O-buoy 9, whose movement has recently been arrested, as we now are nudged back north and west. Temperatures have dripped back nearly to freezing.Obuoy 9 0711B webcam

Currently high pressure rules the Pole, as the low pressure “Baltfil” is repulsed back towards Siberia.

DMI2 0711B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0711B temp_latest.big

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

Once again the Mass balance buoys are taking the weekend off, so this report will be short.

The morning maps show the high pressure weakening slightly on the Pacific side of the Pole, and being nudged slightly towards Svalbard, so the flow at the north entrance of Fram Strait may even be swinging around to the south. The high pressure has sucked some of the Pacific chill towards the Pole, but the sub-freezing temperatures persist towards East Siberia. (This continues to surprise me, for I expected warmer-than-normal readings towards the Pacific, due to “warm” PDO.)

Faboo’s camera shows the melt-water pool I dubbed Lake Faboo is shrinking again, after filling slightly during yesterdays thaw.

YESTERDAYNP3 1 0711B 2015cam1_1   TODAYNP3 1 0712 2015cam1_1

Down towards the northeast corner of Greenland O-buoy 9 is hesitating at the brink of doom, backing away west slighty rather than plunging southeast into Fram Strait. temperatures have dipped below freezing, and winds slacked off to below 5 mph.Obuoy 9 0712 webcamAcross the Pole towards Bering Strait, on the border between Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, O-buoy 12 continues to make a liar out of me. I predicted it would be the first camera to show ice breaking up, and instead it remains solid, and has shown us snows and sub-freezing temperatures. Currently we’ve made it back to thawing, and “Lake Chukchi” to the left seems to be slightly fuller. Obuoy 12 0712 webcam

Further east in the Beaufort Sea O-buoy 11’s camera continues to slowly tilt as its base thaws, but the thaw has ended for the moment. The lead in the middle distance, just beyond the pressure ridge, had opened but appears to have again clapped shut.Obuoy 11 0712 webcam The Pole is relatively cloudless, compared to other times, and now is a good day to zoom in with the Google Map to see the actual state of the ice with your own lying eyes. Of interest is the patch of open water O-buoy 9 explores at the northeast corner of Greenland. The ice in the central arctic is more solidly packed than last year, when I described it as “the Pulverized Pole”. The link below will hopefully get you to the google map.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE  

Faboo  barely budged today, moving only 1.38 miles southwest in 24 hours, to 86.607°N, 4.005°W. (Yesterday’s eastward bump ended with yesterday’s final report, and all longitudinal motion was to the west.) Winds were very light, and even calm, and when calm decended the temperatures jumped, likely due to the heating of the man-made object sitting on the ice. For example, in the dead calm at 1800z temperatures were +3.3°C, but in the 2 mph wind at the next report they had dropped to +0.6°C.

It truly is glorious weather and a genuine thaw. Lake Faboo again filled and again drained.

NP3 1 0712C 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0712D 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0712E 2015cam1_1 The final picture looks north at the sun near midnight.

Far to the south O-buoy 9 sends us a fantastic picture of the headlands of Greenland. It has stopped moving west and is heading east out into open water again.Obuoy 9 0712B webcam

I expect each picture from O-buoy 9 to be its last, (unless it bobs about as a buoy with no ice,  for some of these cameras can float rather well, as O-buoy 7 demonstrated), however it keeps on trucking.

This picture reminds me of the whalers reports from back around 1816 or 1817. As far as they knew this coast of Greenland was inaccessible, but abruptly they were able to chase whales up here, and deemed it remarkable they could see coasts no other captains had seen in living memory.

The other O-buoys are less remarkable, so I’ll skip them until tomorrow. I figure that, if the Mass Balance Buoys can take a vacation, then so can I.

Oh, I should show the DMI maps. They show the chill hanging tough over by Bering Strait, and high pressure hanging tough over the Pole. It looks like Baltfol is giving up its attempt to attack the Pole, and is weakening in the Laptev Sea.

DMI2 0712B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0712B temp_latest.big

MONDAY MORNING

Have to cover for an employee who called in sick. Just maps and pictures this morning.

DMI2 0713 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0713 temp_latest.big

NP3 1 0713 2015cam1_1Obuoy 9 0713 webcamObuoy 11 0713 webcamObuoy 12 0713 webcam

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE  

It’s been a long, hot day here in New Hampshire, and the cool pictures from the Pole are welcome. The maps surprise me a little, as the high pressure over the Pole abruptly broke in two and weakened, as the remains of Baltfol bulged back toward the Pole.  What I suppose is the remains of Lagzipson are moving north from Eastern Russia towards the Kara Sea, and this reinforcement  will continue a general push of Ice towards Svalbard. Whether this Pole-to-Atlantic flow can start to involve Faboo, and push it south more speedily, is a possibility, however for the moment Faboo sits in a calm area.

Yesterday Faboo only moved 1.46 miles south and west, to 86.588°N, 4.163°W. Winds remained very light, with calm spells. There was one surprising dip below freezing to -0.2°C at 0300z, but temperatures had rebounded to the day’s high of +2.0° by the next report at 0600z. For the most part the thawing persisted, and the 2100z reading, which ended yesterdays report, was +1.5°C.

Mass Balance data still refuses to download on my computer.

O-buoy 9 continues to hesitate at the brink of taking the plunge down towards Fram Strait. Winds have slacked off to a breathless calm, and temperatures are right at freezing. We have continued east, but drifted north a little. The pictures we relieve continue to be striking. I think the berg we are perched upon is slowly spinning clockwise, for in the first view the headland of Greenland is just slipping off camera to the left, while in the final view we are looking at the sun at midnight, and that is north..Obuoy 9 0712C webcamObuoy 9 0713 webcam

Obuoy 9 0713C webcamObuoy 9 0713D webcam TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE 

I was so sleepy last night I nearly fell asleep at the computer, just dreaming at the pictures. That was actually my original reason for visiting Faboo, back in the days I just did it without feeling any need to write about what I saw. I liked to just watch and wonder, without worry or warring Alarmists. (Early summer is actually a good time to let your mind drift like the ice, for usually little goes on, and you have to search far afield to find any headlines.) Last night I found myself wondering about fascinating micro-critters that have found an odd niche on our planet to exploit: They live in the ice, in little pockets of super-cooled brine. I was thinking this must  be a rough time of year for those creatures, because the ice warms to the freezing point from the top of the ice to the bottom, and most of the brine leaches downward to the sea. And so engrossing was this wondering that I forgot to post the Faboo pictures.

The gorgeous weather continues. Comparing the pictures by opening them to new tabs and then clicking back and forth makes two things clear. First, Lake Faboo continues to slowly shrink, though it is unclear whether the water is draining down through a hole or crack, or leaching down through ice made, by fascinating processes, more like pervious sandstone than impervious limestone. (Hmm. My spell-check says there is no such word as “pervious”.) Second, the snow-stakes are creating their own personal dents in the snow, which shows that the equipment up there does catch the sunshine and create mini-pockets of warmth, especially when it is calm.

YESTERDAY 1224Z (NOONTIME)NP3 1 0713B 2015cam1_3   TODAY 0624Z (MORNING)NP3 1 0714 2015cam1_1 The clouds appearing to the right (east) are likely from “Baltfol” which is attempting to bulge towards the Pole from Siberia.

DMI2 0714 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0714 temp_latest.big

Despite the fact it is noon at the tops of the above maps, the sub-freezing cold persists over towards Bering Strait, and also along the more cloudy Eurasian coast, where it is afternoon and evening. The sub-freezing temperatures in Baffin Bay likely is associated with the ice that lingers there, and is indicative of the colder environment created by the spike towards a “cold” AMO this spring (it is now swinging back towards “warm”.)AMO July 14 amo_short Despite the obvious thaw seen by Faboo, temperatures up there remain a hair below normal.DMI2 0714 meanT_2015 The sea-ice extent graph continues to plunge, as it always does this time of year, but it continues to lag a little behind recent years.DMI2 0714 icecover_current_new I continue to wait for a major crash in the above graph, when Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, and the Laptev Sea melt out, but they continue to dawdle. Hudson Bay is of course more interesting to me, as it is closest to my north and actually effects New Hampshire weather. There is an intesting comparison between this year and last year over at http://polarbearscience.com , which includes this comparative map. Hudson Bay July 14 arctic-sea-ice-canada-2015_2014_14-july (Click to enlarge, and click again to enlarge further.)

Despite the NRL forecasts of swift melting in both the Laptev and East Siberian Seas (as well as Hudson Bay), the ice lingers. The thickness map shows it to be thin, (but remember the data is gathered via microwave from a satellite, and melt-water pools are a royal pain in the ice to deal with.)

DMI2 0714 extent arcticicennowcast DMI2 0714 thickness.arcticictnowcast The drift map shows the reverse-flow at the entrance to Fram Strait, that is holding up I-buoy 9.DMI2 0714 drift arcticicespddrfnowcastO-buoy 9 continues east, which doesn’t show well in the above map, and has now passed 11° longitude. It may be driven by a local shore-breeze, with its pressure ridges acting like a sail and allowing to cruise against the flow of the current, and the more general flow of the greater mass of the ice. (Faboo has no such freedom; if the mass of the ice is moving one way it doesn’t matter so much if a local breeze blows another.) O-buoy 9 is seeing temperatures drop below freezing, and the breeze pick up to 10 mph, and may have gotten a snowflake in its eye earlier.Obuoy 9 0714 webcamObuoy 9 0714B webcam Across the Pole at O-buoy 12 Lake Chukchi remains the same, as temperatures dip below freezing and winds remain light. Obuoy 12 0714B webcam It is breezier at O-buoy 11, with winds over 10 mph, and temperatures dipping back to freezing after a period of thaw. The lead is opening to the right while it seems to have slammed shut to the left. This sort of twisting can break up the ice, I’ve seen in the past, but as it hasn’t happened yet I’ll have to sort of cheat to get a headline out of this picture.

PHOTO OF HUGE SEA-LEVEL RISE IN BEAUFORT SEA!!!

It is perfectly obvious a huge wave is moving in from the right  left and if you deny it you are a denier. The only way to stop this wave, and keep it from smashing in your front door, is to hurry out today and buy curly light bulbs.

Obuoy 11 0714B webcam  TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE —Relentless, Merciless Sunshine—

Faboo benignly rafted tragically limped another 2.34 miles south-southwest, winding up at 86.557°N, 4.392°W. The beautiful, beneficent relentless, merciless sunshine continued to bathe pound the sea-ice with summer’s typical gentle thaws horrible proof of the planet’s destruction. Here are some pictures from Faboo’s serene nerve-shattering day.

NP3 1 0714B 2015cam1_3 NP3 1 0714C 2015cam1_2 NP3 1 0714D 2015cam1_1 I’m worn out, so I’m just going to post the DMI maps, hand this report over to the Global Warming Editor for editing, and hit the hay.

DMI2 0714B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0714B temp_latest.big

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0715 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0715 temp_latest.big 

The morning maps continue  to show high pressure over the Pole and low pressure over the Eurasian though the high pressure is starting to be pressed to the Atlantic side, as low pressure works across Bering Strait to Alaska.

The low pressure intensifying over Kara Sea, (which I suppose is a reincarnation of Baltzipson), is accenting the area, basically Finland into West Siberia, that has had a very cool summer.

The Pacific to Atlantic flow has pressed past the Pole and may start to move Faboo a little faster soon.DMI2 0715 arcticicespddrfnowcast Currently Faboo is taking its sweet time, and is far north of where we were at this time last year, when our North Pole Camera was about to be crunched just north of Svalbard.2015D_track.png July 15Interestingly, though there is visible melt atop the ice, and indeed Faboo sits in its own self-made melt-water pool, the melt beneath the ice from the bottom up hasn’t started much, yet. Is the water especially cold in this part of the Arctic Sea?2015D_thick.png July 15 NP3 1 0715 2015cam1_1Sadly, the O-buoy cameras aren’t reporting this morning.

The Mass balance buoys report general thaw, with only two buoys, 2015B and 2014F reporting a hair below freezing, reporting -0.09°C and  -0.03°C respectively.

2015A is drifting northwest along the coast of Alaska, and has moved far enough from the coast that we aren’t getting the really warm temperatures from off the sun-baked tundra any more. It’s coming in at +0.53°C at noontime, when it would be reading +7.00°C a couple weeks ago. You have to take such things into account, for some times cooling is due to a cold air mass, and sometimes due to a buoy drifting away  from land.

2015A_track (2).png July  15 WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE

DMI2 0715B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0715B temp_latest.big

High pressure is hanging on at the Pole, as low pressure plays ring around the Rosie, for a while longer, though there are changes in the air, especially with cold air and low pressure home-brewing over by Bering Strait. The stable pattern is starting to wobble a bit, and some models see a low, a secondary of Lagzipson that now sits over the Kara Sea, come shooting up from the south and right across the Pole to Canada, around a week from now. In the meantime the high pressure towards Greenland and low pressure towards the Kara Sea will push the sea-ice towards the Atlantic.

Faboo saw the calm end and light breezes spring up, immediately dropping temperatures a degree. The day’s high was +1.4°C at noon and the low was +1.0°C at 2100Z at both ends of the measuring period. The light breezes up near 10 mph meant we moved more, 5.59 miles south-southwest to 86.478°N, 4.694°W. The view seemed to show a change in the weather threatening from Eurasia.NP3 1 0715B 2015cam1_2 NP3 1 0715D 2015cam1_1 The O-buoys still aren’t reporting, which irks me as O-buoy 9 has been so fascinating.

Have to run. Sizzling meat on a barbecue is calling me. Sometimes sea-ice comes second.

O-BUOYS UP AND RUNNING AGAIN

O-buoy 9 still survives, now drifting back to the west and south. Winds around 6 mph. Air temperatures just above freezing. Slush in the water shows the water is very cold. Obuoy 9 0715B webcam At O-buoy 11 the tilt goes on. A foot of the surface has melted away, and a foot of the bottom of the ice as well. Remaining ice is roughly 4 feet thick. Temperature at freezing, with light airs at 2 mph.Obuoy 11 0715B 2014I_thickObuoy 11 0715B webcam O-buoy 12 has temperatures at freezing with winds around 6 mph. Obuoy 12 0715B  webcam As a side note, the grubby bottom of Lake Chukchi is not necessarily caused by man-made soot or the erupted ash from volcanoes. Much may be locally grown micro creatures, various slimes and germs that thrive in bizarre habitats, including sub-freezing brine and the bottom of sea-ice lit from above. Over time they, or their microscopic corpses, can make ice appear dirty.

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE  

It looks calm and mild at the Pole this morning, with all the action over towards Eurasia. All the sub-freezing air looks to be south of 80° latitude, so expect the DMI north-of-80° graph to spoke above normal. Some warmth is trying to push east through the Baltic to the Kara Sea, but from there east it is cold clear around the Arctic Circle to Alaska. Then some warmth is pushing north through central Canada, along the western shore of Hudson Bay, through the Canadian Archipelago, and out towards the Pole. My guess is that warm air will rise and create low pressure, ending the rule of high pressure at the Pole. Continuing east, sub-freezing is seen over ice-covered waters in Baffin Bay and northwest of Svalbard.

DMI2 0716 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0716 temp_latest.big

Faboo has seen a return of sunshine. Likely winds are dropping, as the high pressure centers over them. Temperatures from the Mass Balance buoy’s unofficial report are at +0.10°C , which is below normal.

NP3 1 0716 2015cam1_1 The only report of normal warmth os from Buoy 2015E in Fram Strait, reporting +1.06°, but O-buoy 9 is showing thaw and light winds.  Obuoy 9 0716 webcam Over towards the Beaufort Sea the only report more than a half degree above is from Buoy 2014I, coming in at +0.88° C. Obuoy 11 0716 webcamThe only report of below freezing comes from 2015B in the early afternoon, when temperatures are usually highest, at -0.35° C. North of there 2014G reports +0.30° C, and co-located O-buoy 12 shows Lake Chukchi not rising, but expanding ever so slightly towards the center of the picture by eroding that bank.Obuoy 12 0716 webcam  I’ll be late posting tonight.

THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE

Faboo drifted another 4.72 miles southwest to 86.422°N, 5.331°W, as winds slowly slacked off from 10 mph to 5 mph. The wildly exciting news for the day was an abrupt wind shift from north  to east, accompanied by a nearly two degree drop in temperatures.  Temperatures had been roughly a degree above freezing all day, achieving the high of +1.2° C at 1500z, and then at 1800z it was down to -0.2°C. STOP THE PRESSES!!! The final reading at 2100Z yesterday was -0.5°C.

Looking back at the picture from around that time (above) the 1821Z picture did have a bit of gloom in the sky, but things swiftly reverted to the gorgeous weather we’ve lucked into lately, after a very gloomy start to the summer. The only possible sign it may have been a bit colder is that the snow sparkles. Lake Faboo  continues to be less than impressive, and is failing to get us proper press coverage.

NP3 1 0716B 2015cam1_1 To the south-southwest O-buoy 9 has turned back to the southeast in light winds and temperatures just above freezing. We have lost a couple large blocks of ice from the prow of our ship. Perhaps this will be like setting our sails in a different manner, and we will swing around to look behind us, where I think the bluffs of Greenland’s coast lie. As best as I can tell, just calculating from shadows, we are looking northeast, and are just turning the corner at the northeast tip of Greenland. Obuoy 9 0716B webcam To the south-southeast of there, nearly due south of Faboo, 2015E had made it down to  77.87° N earlier today, yet managed sub-freezing temperatures of -0.10° C in the unofficial Mass Balance reports. It has since bounced back up to +0.57° C.

Over on the Pacific side things are fairly dull, with nothing noteworthy. Its hard to get headlines when temperatures barely stray a half degree from freezing. But O-buoy 12 has a nice picture this evening.Obuoy 12 0716B webcam I don’t see much in the maps, but my eyes nay be keener in the morning.DMI2 0716B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0716B temp_latest.big

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE

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The maps show high pressure stubborn over the Pole, though now eroded from both the Pacific and Atlantic sides. It remains surprisingly cold just north of Bering Strait, especially with the PDO in a warm phase. An interesting kickback low is retrograding north of Scandinavia, increasing the flow into Fram Strait. It may be spreading ice out like butter over bread, and explain the uptick in the extrent graph, (You can know for sure the sea isn’t freezing up, in July). The only other explanation is that a snowfall towards the Pacific has dusted slush, and areas recorded as “open water” by microwave sensors up in satellites abruptly were seen as “ice.”DMI2 0717 icecover_current_new Faboo continues slowly southwest through fair weather. Lake Faboo is staying the same size despite constant sunshine and thawing temperatures.NP3 1 0717 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0717B 2015cam1_1 With the Pole sunny  and thawing, and sub-freezing temperatures all shunted south of 80°, the DMI temperatures-north-of-80° shows the first midsummer above-normal temperatures in three years.DMI2 0717 meanT_2015 If you are an Alarmist you should focus on this graph and ignore the extent graph, but if you are a Skeptic seize the extent graph. In truth the midsummer weather is normal, and rather boring, which is how I like it.

O-buoy 9’s camera may be in the drink, as there are no pictures this morning.

I have a busy day ahead, and may be posting late again this evening.

BRIEF EVENING UPDATE

O-buoys not reporting, which is what I check first, as mostly nothing happens when you sit about watching ice melt, but something was always happening out the window of O-buoy 9, but I fear it may be sunk.

Faboo is reporting the same old dull drift southwest, though it did pause and then move east, after reaching 5.471°W at noon. (Whoopdedo.) We wound up at  86.398°N, 5.458°W, which is a whopping 1.74 miles in the last 24 hours. At this rate we’ll get to Fram Strait sometime next year. It gives a totally false impression of how active the Arctic Sea actually is. Only during the summer does ice sit about like this. The pity is that during the winter, when things get wild, it is pitch dark and the cameras can’t see.

Faboo also reports temperatures gradually creeping up from freezing to +1.2°C at noon yesterday, and then falling back to +0.2°C at 2100Z, but there was time when the winds got completely calm, and the buoy baked in the sun and created an air-cocoon of warmth around itself, and then the temperatures spiked up to +3.6°C at 1800Z. This data likely should be tossed out, but considering they use data from over the hot tarmac of airports in the exhaust of jumbo-jets, and then “adjust” it up a bit, I doubt they’ll throw this daytime high out.

The DMI maps show the high eroding away, over the Pole, and the chill persisting over towards Bering Strait.

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SATURDAY UPDATE  —Faboo Stands Alone—

This will be a little like the old days, as both the O-buoy site and the Mass Balance Site seem to be taking a well-earned weekend off, and all we have is Faboo. I’ve been a bit spoiled through having so many cameras to look at. Back in the  day, there was only one.

Faboo has remained tucked in the calm center of high pressure, and the ice is moving faster than the wind, when the wind is calm (obviously.) It demonstrates the bulk and magnitude of the Trans Polar Drift. At time the ice is pushed along by other ice which is pushed by other ice, and the power may be winds hundreds of miles away.

Our winds were never higher than the 1 m/s range, which is a draft of around 2 mph. I was expecting to see the usual heat-island effect, but even a light draft can drop temperatures. For example, on Thursday we saw winds calm and a reading of +3.6°C, and the next reading, with winds only 2 mph, saw a drop to +0.2°. (Readings in these official reports are three hours apart. Also they are a day late, so today’s report involves Friday’s temperatures.) Friday’s low got below freezing when the midnight sun dipped down to its lowest, and were at -0.2°C at 0300z. Then they began the typical slight diurnal rise you notice even though the sun never sets, and because the wind never stopped entirely I likely should not suspect any heat-island effect when we arrive at our high at noon of +2.3°C, (but of course I do, being a suspicious fellow, and noticing Faboo has melted its private pool to sit in.) Then temperatures were in their slight diurnal slump, when the wind did die for the final report at 2100, and the temperature obligingly jumped from +1.7°C to +2.7°C, verifying my pet theory about the heat-island. This is a big event for me, for usually I have to confess my theories have just been proven wrong. Faboo does keep a man humble.

With the winds so light we only traveled 1.52 miles to 86.376°N, 5.454°W. There were some interesting giggles east and west as we crawled south, as far east as 5.452°W at midnight, and as far west as 5.483°W at noon, and then back east to 5.452°W again at 1800z, before we shifted back .002° at our final reading.

It should be noted that at this latitude a full degree of longitude is only 4.36 miles, so when you are talking about a thousandth of a degree longitude you are talking about 4 thousandth of a mile. You can spit that distance.

Often when winds are calm, we get our prettiest pictures. NP3 1 0718 2015cam1_4 NP3 1 0718B 2015cam1_3 (Click to enlarge, or open to new tabs to compare.)

Lake Faboo is no deeper, but is melting away at its sides, and a small ice island in it has all but melted away completely.

DMI maps show the high pressure starting to again expand over the Pole. The models were showing a low moving up over the Pole from the Kara Sea, but they have dropped that idea. Now it looks like the high will  move back and rule the Pole. The sub-freezing air continues to hang around over towards the Pacific side. If this keeps up it may make one of my predictions wrong. I predicted a lot of melting on that side, due to the warmth of the PDO, but, even though most of the melting comes from underneath, sub-freezing temperatures can’t hurry things along any.

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As this post is getting lengthy, I’ll think I’ll wrap it up, and spend some time trying to think up a witty title for the next one.