WILL BRAZIL CHILL KILL COFFEE?

The “Ice Age Now” site has been reporting deep snows, in some cases over ten feet deep,  in the mountains of Chile and Argentina, with the cold pouring east across the pampas and northeast into southern Brazil.
http://iceagenow.info/chile-71-workers-trapped-snow/ http://iceagenow.info/argentina-two-meters-snow-near-chilean-border/ http://iceagenow.info/record-cold-brazil-2/

The coffee crops have been extended to the southern limits of what is possible in Brazil, just as orange trees are grown to the northern limits of what is possible in Florida, and therefore just as arctic outbreaks threaten Florida’s oranges in our winter, antarctic outbreaks threaten Brazil’s coffee.

brazil-coffee-screen-shot-2013_07_17-at-8_35_50-am

The interesting thing is that it is still officially autumn in the southern hemisphere. Winter doesn’t begin for a fortnight.

My interest is piqued because I am watching to see if the southern hemisphere gets the same loopy jet stream we got last winter. The current culprit is a low off the east coast of Brazil in the South Atlantic, which is bringing cold south winds north on its west side, (because low pressure spins clockwise in the southern hemisphere,) (which is an excellent mental exercise, if you feel like stretching your ability to visualize maps, first things in the morning,) (which is why coffee is important.)

Brazil 1 cmc_mslp_uv10m_samer_1

As this low meanders off the coast the early morning is coldest, with considerable warming during the day, especially up in the pampas of northern Argentina.

Brazil 2 cmc_t2m_samer_6Brazil 3 cmc_t2m_samer_4

What I would assume is that the antarctic blast would be moderated by the day-time warming, and the cold wave would fade. However by glancing ahead through the early morning maps, it looks like a following blast of cold comes roaring north across the pampas to southern Brazil.

Brazil 4 cmc_t2m_samer_2Brazil 5 cmc_t2m_samer_10Brazil 6 cmc_t2m_samer_14Brazil 7 cmc_t2m_samer_18

This shows a couple things. First it shows how poking through the thousands of maps Ryan Maue makes available at the Weatherbell site can make you late for work. Second it shows why gamblers who like to play with coffee futures study meteorology.  (I may stock up a bit myself.)

And there is a third thing as well. “Global Warming” isn’t effecting Brazil, where temperatures are setting new record lows.

Advertisements

9 thoughts on “WILL BRAZIL CHILL KILL COFFEE?

  1. Brazilian coffee freezes are a subject that I am very familiar with. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s, I partnered with a friend to play commodity futures based of weather. We had some great years and some no so great years, but one of our favorite years was 1994.

    As a bit of background, my friend and I had gone to the National Climate data center in North Carolina back around 1984 and obtained surface and upper air charts on microfilm for every major freeze going back to the 1950’s, By carefully studying all of that data, we learned the parameters that were needed to predict a freeze.

    On a Friday afternoon, my friend phoned me and said he thought we had a live one, that a freeze would take place by the following Monday morning. The situation seemed very tricky as temperatures were in the low 60’s all the way down to the southern tip of Argentina that Friday afternoon and none of the other forecasters were even hinting at a freeze.

    Fortunately. my friend made a huge hit as a severe freeze hit the coffee growing areas. One thing we had learned by studying the charts of the earlier freezes was that often the air mass would get colder as it headed north. Probably due to the land mass widening as you headed north. So that threw a curve at the other forecasters and they were caught flat footed.

    So that one event allowed me to live a reasonably comfortable life over the last 22 years and at least I have a roof over my head at a reasonably nice condo.

    • Great story!

      It makes sense to me that the land mass getting wider would allow the cold to grow, for the water moderates the antarctic cold.

      I have seemed to notice that when the ocean warms an air-mass, the warm layer is often shallow. All sorts of interesting stuff happens when that shallow, moist layer get back over land. Its far more complex than it seems at first, involving cooling (evaporative) and warming (latent heat released when condensation occurs) and uplift and downdrafts, but among all that delightful complexity is the simple fact a thin layer of oceanic air may be a thin disguise over much colder air, which soon becomes apparent with a bit of mixing.

      I’m glad you made a bundle from your research. It is far more ethical than making a bundle getting a government grant for politically correct fraud…I mean “theory”.

    • I tend to think cooling looks likely, but I am by no means certain. The “Quiet Sun” may well knock some of the more dependable oceanic cycles out of whack, and create some surprises. However I agree we are lucky to have fossil fuel, though I myself have warmed my home mostly with wood for 30 years. I have yet to see a wood-powered computer, (though New Hampshire actually does have some wood-powered power plants).

  2. Pingback: 現在の地球の気温の極端さを象徴する「現世紀ブラジル」からオリンピックを契機に世界へと伝わるかもしれないいくつかのこと | In Deep

  3. Pingback: ARCTIC SEA ICE —Meanwhile, in New Zealand…— | Sunrise's Swansong

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s