LOCAL VIEW –June Refresher–

When I looked at the map this morning I was actually looking south of Texas, because Joe Bastardi said there might be tropical development down that way, over the next week or ten days, and he has already completely dropped my jaw by nailing the last two early-season tropical developments, something like two weeks ahead of time. Considering I am lucky to tell you what will happen this afternoon, I find it pretty amazing when the long-range experts hit the nail on the head, though Mr. Bastardi was rather ho-hum about his success, (perhaps because the tropical storms weren’t all that big.) In any case I did note a bit of a flare-up way down in the Bay of Campeche, and then turned my gaze from the tropical to the arctic, which, in a sense, currently is in my own back yard. Not that it is called “arctic” in June; rather it is called “polar”.

If you look at the map you can see a low northeast of Nova Scotia  is blasting us with refreshing air, which is actually coming down from Hudson Bay, which still is ice-covered.

20160610 satsfc

The nice lobe of cool, Canadian air extends as high pressure from Hudson Bay right down to Georgia, but, although its east side has north winds and continues to rush the refreshment south, the west side has south winds and sweltering heat is coming north in the center of the USA.

You’d be surprised how often this is the case in New England. We are climate unto ourselves, as different from the body of the nation as a head is from a torso.  (People from other parts of the USA might use other body parts in the analogy, but I won’t go there.)  It is no fun when we get cold fog and drizzle when the rest of the nation gets summer, but when they’re sweltering, as we enjoy sparkling weather, we get our chance to be smug.

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I was a bit tired at the start today, as I have to put in some overtime taking blasted government-mandated on-line courses when I should be sleeping. Last night I learned children should have less “screen time” at Childcare, (we have absolutely none, as children get plenty of TV, video games and computer time at home, and anyway, Bill Gates didn’t spend time on a computer as a child and still managed to develop “computer skills”.) I also learned children should get at least an hour of strenuous exercise a day. (Our kids are outside all day long, and tend to learn under trees like philosophers of ancient Greece.) I learned parents are not responsible for the welfare of children, but teachers are. I learned that children once learned to hop, gallop and skip from older children, but because families are now smaller and children are grouped with others of the same age, they must be taught to hop by teachers. There was instruction on hopping correctly, and on safety while hopping. (My eyes were rolling so much it made a sound like bowling balls rumbling down a bowling alley.) There was a section on getting cheaper toys, because getting a few expensive toys might make children quarrel. (The kids at our childcare seem to demonstrate that a stick is their favorite toy, and even though there are thousands of sticks in the woods, they still manage to quarrel about who owns a particular stick.) While discussing the expense of tricycles, I saw that besides tricycles there was the expense of helmets. Yikes! I had no idea tricycles were so dangerous. I’ll have to buy a parachute for one our four-year-olds, who loves to swing.

Cool June 3 FullSizeRender

In any case I got 100% on the test at the end, because I know the right answers even though I may not agree they are right. Then today we headed off on a beautiful cool morning.  The children think nothing of playing their way across three miles by lunch.Cool June 5 IMG_3158

The children are in the far distance, with a member of my staff. I don’t keep them in shape. They keep me in shape, just keeping up with them. This path is the top of an earthen dam at “Hadley’s”  ( a flood control reservoir) and the children are on their way to Checkerberry Woods”.

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They headed north along the “Hummock Trail” to a small brook.

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Some parents worry that we don’t teach enough Math, so I videoed a child taking my class on fluid dynamics, turbulence, and Strange Attractors.  (It is “strange” how children are “attracted” to running water.) Parents love seeing their children hard at work at academics.

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We had a hard time making back in time for lunch, for the wild strawberries are ripe, and the children love to graze on the tiny berries. The berries are not “certified organic”, but I figure nature can’t be bothered with government regulations.

The peas the kids helped me plant are already blooming, though there was a major cold wave after they were planted, with snow and temperatures down in the single digits (F). They had sprouted, but I lucked out as they hadn’t quite emerged above the dirt. The kids likely will be munching edible-podded-peas next week, which is very early for this far north. The old saying was that you plant peas on Patriot’s day (April 19) and pick them on Independence day (July 4).

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Of course, with the air whooshing down from Hudson Bay, we might get frost. That is one danger of our refreshing escape from the sweltering heat further south. The maps show frost (light pink)  was close this morning, and will lurk in hollows tomorrow morning.

Refresh 1 gfs_t2m_east_1Refresh 2 gfs_t2m_east_5

Another danger is thunder, when the sweltering air finally pushes north and charges over us, and Sunday morning dawns 25 degrees warmer.

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However the heat seldom holds, in June in New England, and by the time I head back to work on Monday morning more air will be swaying the green boughs, clear and clean and crisp and straight from Hudson Bay.

Refresh 4 gfs_t2m_east_13 (Warning.  The weather is so gorgeous this website has been put under a poetry alert.)

 

 

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10 thoughts on “LOCAL VIEW –June Refresher–

  1. Quite similar here where I love the refreshing north winds in summer which bring crystal skies* and temps in the 70s and sometimes very low 80s but with low dew points so nights are breathable. Once the winds swing from the south, as they have for the past few days we get nice temps but also the horrible muggy nights – nothing like the tropics but not my cup of tea. Thankfully the muggy weather the past few years has been shorter than in the past couple of decades, however we seem to be more of a switcharoo with meridonial jetstream flows shifting from the north to south and back again. 🙂

    *didn’t quite work last week as the north east winds over the cool north sea brought grey clouds and max temps in the mid 50s! I took a drive a few dozen miles West and temps popped up to the 70s.

    • I did spend a June up in Scotland 46 years ago, and was completely enchanted by the length of the days. Here in the “north” of the USA our sunrise is around 5:00 and our sunset is around 8:30, but up there sunrise was at 4:00 and sunset at 10:15, and twilight went on and on so that it seemed it was never dark. It made me wonderfully manic.

  2. Ask joe the weatherman why he was afraid to reply to this comment when he posted an intellectual dishonest disingenuous version of reality on the last day of March at the so called science blog WUWT. Looks like once again Joe lived up to my expectations, he never lets me down…
    asleep at the wheel just like August 4th 2012, a day that shall live in infamy

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/30/no-april-fools-joke-arctic-blast-for-northeast-usa-to-give-snow-10s-and-20s-to-new-york-boston/#comment-2178943

    • Gosh Mr. Martin, I’m sure Mr. Bastardi didn’t mean to offend you. The news of the April arctic outbreak was posted by Mr. Watts, not Mr. Bastardi. Mr. Bastardi is a busy man and doesn’t even respond to comments on his own site, so I’m sure he couldn’t find time to respond to 142 comments on a different site, (WUWT), one of which was yours.

      That was another example of Mr. Bastardi seeing a weather event ten days before it happened. I’m not sure what is “intellectually disingenuous” about him being correct. It actually was very important in my life to get the warning he gave. Remember, it was in the 70’s (F) at the end of March and on April 1st on the east coast. Some people were even thinking of planting their tomato plants. The snows of April 3 would have killed tomatos, or even tough kale seedlings.

      https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2016/04/03/local-view-april-mopes/

      And this was followed by worse:

      https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2016/04/08/local-view-not-a-peep/

      The heads-up given by Mr. Bastardi allowed me to take the educated gamble with my peas, and plant them very early, timing the planting so they wouldn’t emerge when the bitter cold came, but would be sprouting. This happens to be a success for me, (rare), and while I give God the glory, I recognize having a forecaster like Mr. Bastardi assisting my intuition is an aid, and I give him due credit.

      So Now let us turn to your comment, as “Saul from Montreal”, on WUWT. You state, “Looks like anomalously high temperatures in the Arctic for at least the next seven days, especially on the seventh day at the north pole…looks like over +25F anomaly”.

      To some your point might seem off topic, as the subject was the east coast of the USA, not the North Pole, but I think (and thought) it was interesting how the loopy “meridional” jet stream brought mild air north as it brought cold air south. In any case, no one may have responded to your comment, but it was printed. What is there to take offence about?

      Mr. Bastardi can do one of two things with his time. He can produce his amazing forecasts, or he can respond to hundreds of people who know less than he does, many of whom are not polite. I’m glad he focuses on what he is good at. I’ve been following him for over ten years, since back in the days he and the late Ken Reeves produced “The Weather Warriors” at the Accuweather site, and in all that time I’ve never had a direct response. I am not the slightest bit offended. I’m glad he stays focused.

      On this site I have a little more time to respond than he does, so I can respond to you. However I too have other things I would rather focus on, than someone who enters my site (which is sort of like entering my house), and accuses people I respect of posting an “intellectual dishonest disingenuous version of reality”.

      Part of me was tempted to snip your comment, but then it occurred to me that you might be a very sensitive fellow, and that it hurts your feelings when you are not responded to. Therefore I have responded. I will add that you likely would be happier if you understood people are not as bad as you seem to assume. Forgive me for suggesting this, but you seem too quick to judge others.

      That arctic gale of August 4th, 2012 indeed was amazing, but so was the gale of the following summer. What has fascinated me is the way the first one melted so much sea-ice, and the second one didn’t.

      Don’t worry. Be happy.

  3. the news of the April arctic outbreak was posted by Mr. Watts, not Mr. Bastardi. Mr. Bastardi is a busy man

    Wrong as usual, why am I not surprised, you will argue white is black.
    No big deal besides clueless missing the farking weather event of the year just like clueless joe did in 2012.
    Keep on gish galloping, I will not return.

    • Your comment was at WUWT. I thought that was the comment you were upset that no one responded to.

      I guess we differ about what the “weather event of the year” is. Many would suggest it was the El Nino.

      You are a difficult fellow to have a cordial conversation with, so my life will likely be easier if you don’t return. But if you do, I’ll try to be honest and polite.

      • I sure appreciate his brain. My favorite thing is when, right in the middle of a forecast, he’ll notice some quirk in the map he didn’t see before, and launch off onto an unplanned digression. You never know where you may end up.

  4. Yes, it takes quite a man to make a forecast and then admit a few hours later that his forecast might be wrong based on later information. A lot better than the lies and cover ups that other forecasters feel compelled to spew after the fact when their forecast busts.

    • When I think about it, that is what life is like. You make a plan, and then things come along that screw up your plan. It is more like riding the rapids than sailing down a smooth stream. You have to react to the rocks and reefs that suddenly are in front of you.

      There seems to be a false belief that it is possible to figure everything out beforehand. The word people like to use is “proactive”. People want to be in control, to have every possible calamity insured, to have savings enough for a hundred years. The problem is that there are some things, like the weather, that we cannot control.

      While reading about my ancestors arriving in New England in the early 1600’s one thing that is sort of amazing is that they had so little security. No food, no shelter. 52 out of 102 died the first winter. So you had 50 left. How great an effect can they have had? Well, there are currently something like 20-30 million Americans who can find a Pilgrim in their family tree.

      Then think about the Indians who taught them. One amazing thing is that the Natives of New England did not bother saving up all that much food for tomorrow. When tomorrow came they knew where to go for a feast; perhaps the herring would be running, or some such thing.

      The one exception to this rule was corn. They did have corn stored up, especially because the great pandemic wiped out 90% of the population, so they had a huge harvest and no one to eat it. Yet having this excess apparently caused fights. One of the first conflicts between the natives and the Pilgrims occurred because the Pilgrims found a big storage-area of corn and, as they were starving, decided it was a gift from God.

      Also the Indians would put huge amounts of acorns under a waterfall in a brook, so the constant flow of water would leech out the tannic acid and make the nuts edible. So I guess you could say they saved up acorns.

      But largely they were free of our concerns about tomorrow. To me that freedom sounds lovely. Nor were they malnourished (though I suppose they knew how to fast and may have faced famines). The Pilgrim men were around five-foot-six, while the native men were around six feet tall.

      In any case, it is more possible than we believe to have a general forecast, (IE “Spring will come and the herring will run”), yet fly by the seat of ones pants, adapting to the chaotic unpredictability of the details.

      The absurd thing is some do not adjust to the changes they face, but rather make “adjustments” to past data and create a revisionist history. As if that does a lick of good.

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