ARCTIC SEA ICE –A New Old Pattern–

I read an article in a Russian shipping-periodical recently that basically derided Americans for being fools about sea-ice. Once sentence, roughly translated, stated, “Two things that don’t go away in the summer are sea-ice and American’s insistence it will.” This demonstrates that Alarmists are making America a laughingstock.

As Alarmist’s error becomes increasingly obvious the only truly alarming thing is the behavior of Alarmists themselves. They resemble a man at a bar defending his beloved home team, when he has had too much to drink. The actual statistics may show that his team is in last place, but one tends to be reluctant to bring such facts forward, because the drunk cannot be relied upon for rational responses, and is clenching his fists.

It used to be fun to debate Alarmists, because they would bring up actual facts and statistics, and this forced me to think. I was constantly learning things I hadn’t known about oceanic currents and atmospheric circulation and the chemistry of the atmosphere and sunspot cycles and the history of the arctic. Now that seems to have largely ceased, as the responses have degenerated to the level of, “Your mother is fat and wears army boots.” Or even, “Fossil fuel leads to child-porn”:

Green New Deal advocates: “Pipeline and resource development leads to man camps, human trafficking, and child-porn rings.”

 

 

 

 

This could be dismissed as the grousing of a sore loser, or of a dangerous drunk at a bar, were it not for the fact many Alarmists are adamantly prone towards socialist thinking of the sort that allows “purges”.

Some of the most disgraceful behavior seen in human history has involved one section of a society blaming another without much rhyme or reason. Christian Germans fought alongside Jewish Germans in World War One, but after the Germans lost that war so-called Christians blamed the Jews for their defeat, and their society went through a decade-long paroxysm of neighbor attacking neighbors. In like manner Russia took umbrage at its more prosperous yeoman farmers when its socialism led to hunger, and dubbed them “Kulaks” (tightfisted),  and sent hundreds of thousands to Siberia, with a suspiciously large percentage dying before they even arrived in Siberia. Getting rid of the better farmers contributed to one of the worst famines in Russia’s history. Over and over history demonstrates such hateful “purging” behavior proves to be a case of biting-the-hand-that-feeds, and/or cutting-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face, and such atrocious behavior towards neighbors should be resisted wherever it appears. Even if such wolves don sheep’s wool, point out their teeth; resist the so-called “resistance”; point out when so-called “Christians” are not Christian.

Partially this involves firmly pointing out when Truth is obfuscated with the shallow, hypocritical  deceits of doublespeak.  This is a topic that could go on for 10,000 words, but it boils down to being clear and specific, and not getting swept up by waves of generalization. For example, when I speak of the “elite” I need to be aware some leftist protesters don’t have a penny to their name. In like manner when leftists claim they are the “resistance”, they need to be asked to be specific about who exactly and what exactly they are “resisting”. For another example, the word “liberal” means “generous”, but some so-called “liberals” fail to qualify, for what they give is never their own money but instead is other people’s tax-dollars. If you are truly generous your wallet should get thinner, but their’s get amazingly fat.

A second way to avoid the socially disastrous “purge”-mentality is to reduce the other’s arguments to absurdity.  This is particularly easy to do, concerning sea-ice. Just as it was an embarrassment to Democrats to have protesters outside their 1968 convention chanting, “The whole world is watching,” it will be equally embarrassing to have protesters outside the 2020 convention chanting, “The whole world is laughing.”

Why is the whole world laughing? Because the doom-and-gloom Alarmists stated the low sea-ice of 2007 was the beginning of the end, and the Arctic would be open water by 2012. They got very excited in 2012, for that was a very low sea-ice year as well, even lower than 2007, and they could shout, “See?!! See?!! It’s happening!!!” The problem was, it wasn’t. The Arctic was nowhere near ice-free in 2012, which proved their 2007 prediction incorrect. They should have been hanging their heads, not dancing in glee. And since then the sea-ice has only increased, which is in direct violation of the “Arctic Death Spiral” theory, (which states decreases should “accelerate”, due to changes in “albedo.”)

It is now seven years since the arctic was suppose to be ice-free. Can you believe it?  (Time flies when you are having fun.) Seven years! But will the Alarmists stop their antics? No. Now they are saying it will be 2030 that the Arctic will be ice-free. I likely won’t live so long.

At what point do you stop taking such panic-prone people seriously? Up to a point you try to be polite, but its hard when they are never polite in return, and instead use the word “Denier” like Hitler used the word “Jew” and Stalin used the word “Kulak.” Eventually you simply have to be impolite, and just laugh in their faces.

Reality speaks Truth, and the facts say the sea-ice has been low because the AMO has been in its “warm phase” for most of our adult lives.  Now the AMO is hithering and thithering about the neutral state, and will perhaps tip into its “cold phase” within five years.

AMO 201904 amo_short

The reduction of sea-ice extent this spring has been fairly typical for recent years. There is no sign of an accelerating “Death Spiral.”

DMI Extent 20190615 osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

You’ll have to forgive me if I don’t get as excited by this graph as I used to get. I used to get excited if it dipped into “lowest-for-date” territory, but after following this graph for approaching two decades, (and also studying history), I’ve come to see the behavior as typical for a warm AMO. In other words, it is pretty humdrum. At my age I have to increasingly chose my battles, and it isn’t worth my time to bulge veins in my forehead about what is humdrum.

The “area” and “volume” graphs are also fairly humdrum, but the temperatures-above-80-degrees-latitude graph is worth a comment.

DMI 20190615 meanT_2019

This graph is interesting because it hasn’t followed a pattern established in recent years. In the past decade the temperatures have shown warm spikes during the winters, as relatively moist and mild plumes of air have come north, and then temperatures would abruptly fall below normal in May, once the sun was up and beginning to influence temperatures, and then temperatures tended to remain below normal through most of the summer. This year the winter spikes were far more modest, but temperatures haven’t fallen below normal in May. What has changed?

An honest answer is, “I don’t know.” But I have noticed changes in the “pattern”. There has been high pressure at the Pole much of the spring, with little sign of the anomalous low pressure I used to call “Ralph.” The low pressures have politely circled the Pole down near the Arctic Circle, behaving themselves and obeying the textbooks.

One effect of having high pressure at the Pole is that there are fewer clouds and more sunshine, and, when the sun is up 24-hours a day, this may explain the temperatures in the above graph moving from a degree below normal to a degree above normal. At the same time I need to be cautious that I am not doing what Alarmists do: Deny the facts.  The fact is that I assumed the “Quiet Sun” was what led to the cooler summer temperatures at the Pole. My assumption is shot full of holes, so far, and I will be watching temperatures at the Pole carefully, as Spring gives way to Summer.

The high pressure over the Pole has extended south as a “blocking high” over Greenland, which has led to a loopy jet-stream bringing colder-than-normal temperatures in sub-polar regions, especially the Central USA and Northwest Europe. This blocking high will also lead to a lower “ice mass balance” in Greenland, but this is not due to melting (so far in the spring) but rather is due to much less snowfall. (It is important to be aware of such changes, as Alarmists are prone to cherry-picking data; they didn’t like to bring up Greenland the past two summers when the ice-balance was increasing, but the subject will likely be brought up this summer, with ice-balance decreasing.)

Currently the low pressure systems rolling around the periphery of the high pressure squatting on the Pole are becoming a bit larger, and the one between Western Russia and Franz Josef Land has been wobbling east in a manner that encroaches upon the Pole, and is even a little “Ralph-like”. (Typical; no sooner do you figure out a pattern then it changes!) A smaller storm sits in the Canadian Archipelago, and the High Pressure is reduced to a weak ridge over the Pole.

 

The lows rolling along the north coast of Eurasia have pushed a lot of sea-ice north out of the Kara Sea, and then west and then south into the northern Barents Sea. As always, it is amazing how mobile the ice is. After a fuss about there not being enough sea-ice against the east coast of Svalbard for polar bears, a great deal crunched south, not only against the east coast but even into the west coast regions of Fram Strait, usually kept open by a warm tendril of the Gulf Stream.

There has not been so much “wrong-way-flow” in Fram Strait as last year, and increased amounts of ice flushing south should reduce the volume of sea-ice in the Arctic but may increase the cooling of the North Atlantic.

Across the Pole the extent of sea-ice in Bering Strait has been less, as sea-ice was pushed north there. In terms of the Northwest Passage, both the eastern approach from Baffin Bay and the western approach from Bering Strait seem to be opening up, so I have hopes we may gain some actual pictures from the adventurers who have the time and money to attempt the passage. But I fear they may be discouraged by a major clot of ice persisting in the central passage around 100 degrees west latitude.

It is interesting to note that semi-circle of thicker sea-ice created by the northward push of sea-ice in Bering Strait during the winter. Such features tend to persist, and are helpful when attempting to gauge the flow of the ice during the summer. Often ice-watchers think ice has melted when it has merely moved.

It’s also interesting to see the ice seems to be nudging the coast of Alaska at Barrow. As Barrow is one of the few places left where we have an actual webcam, I thought I’d take a look, and the midnight sun revealed….a wall of fog. Oh well, we’ll wait on that.

Without any buoys with webcams, or any adventurers (so far), there is little eyeball evidence to use, assessing the situation. One can track the paths of buoys without cameras, and surmise the sea-ice is not being flushed from the central arctic:

However I must confess the above squiggles sorely lacks the fascination I derived from the old buoy-webcams. I miss them greatly. If anyone discovers any new ones, please tell me, and I’ll jump for joy. With the hot days of July approaching, views of sea-ice are wanted.

The only other news is that the Hudson Bay thaw has just begun in the Northwest, with the ice still quite thick to the south. While the sea-ice is less in areas of the Arctic Sea’s periphery, it is quite compacted in the Central Arctic.

Stay Tuned.

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4 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –A New Old Pattern–

  1. I think Suspicous0bservers points out that there are increasing amounts of high energy cosmic rays entering the atmosphere due to the quiet Sun. I suspect that there would be larger amounts entering along the magnetic lines, thus the north pole region would gain energy from them as they collide with molecules and atoms in the air. This might help explain the increased warming, Might not. I would also suspect that operations of icebreakers in the Arctic would also affect ice extent. After all, the smaller pieces would allow the warmer water below to get to more edges, and edges is where ice tends to melt fastest.

    Finally, one point regarding history. Yes, German Christians and German Jews fought side by side in WW1. Why is it everyone forgets that German Jews also fought side by side with German Christians in WW2? Hitler did not hate “Jews,” Hitler hated Zionist Jews that lived like parasites on their fellow man. He hated those that got rich off the misery of the German population after Woodrow Wilson scammed Germany after WW1. But alas, “history is written by the winners,” so much of “the truth” is lost.

    • I disagree that Hitler made a distinction between “Ordinary” and “Zionist” Jews. His theory of races was based on the difference between Jews and “Aryans” being hereditary, and not anything you could change by changing your mind in a political sense.

      Yes, there were some “Jews” (between 60,000 and 120,000) who fought for Germany, especially at the start of the war, but such soldiers for the most part had at least two and often three German grandparents. They thought of themselves as German. If both your parents were Jewish you were pretty much toast. A few especially valuable (and especially traitorous) Jews were used by the Nazis, but Hitler wanted the “race” exterminated. There were a half million “pure” Jews in Germany in 1932, 300,000 fled the first six years after Hitler came into power, around 180,000 were killed, and by the end of the war only around 20,000 were left, mostly survivors in camps. Weirdly, Germany is now one of the only nations in Europe with an expanding Jewish population, largely refugees from Russia. Around 250,000.

      The Jews of Finland did fight alongside Nazi troops, but they fought for Finland out of hate towards Russia.

      It is likely best, if you want to continue this discussion, that we do so in some future non-sea-ice post. But the very fact we can even have such a discussion demonstrates we live in a society that allows free exchanges of thought.

      The point I was trying to make was that to label another a “climate-change denier” or “non-Aryan” or “Kulak” (or even “Zionist”) prevents such free exchange, and may make one deaf to a needed correction. It is better to stand corrected than to cling to pride and fall.

      Thanks for the input about cosmic rays and icebreakers. Did you see Brett Keane’s comment in the last sea-ice post about “Taylor Instability” being the cause of the Quiet-Sun Effect? I’ve been trying to get my mind around that concept, and it’s burning out my brains!

      • There are racial Jews – they are from the middle east, actually – and there are religious “Jews,” and they are from many races, including the ancient Khazar Empire in the Caucasus. It is amusing that you see “Aryan and others”, where as Zion sees “Jews and Goyim.” When one sees a “master race,” one always perceives the rest as their property, or at least, their inferiors. Not much difference between these perceived master races. And I didn’t know Hitler personally, no more than did I know Ariel Sharon personally, so I can’t speak for what either “wanted.”

        I listened to an interview of Farage where the interviewer was trying to make Farage say the Brexit party was either for against homosexuals because a leading member of the party had made a comment about hoping that science could correct homosexuals, or words to that affect. His response over and over was that “matters of conscious” was not something he would like to see his party taking stands on, going on to say “tolerance must be a 2 way street.” I found that to be a refreshing concept. Tolerance being a two way street – where each party tolerates the others point of view regardless of how “wrong” each thinks the other person is.

        My understanding of history is based as much on what I was taught to be “the truth” and then finding out later how much of that “truth” was anything but. It has colored, and made me walk back, many of the things that I was told while growing up. I no longer listen to what “authorities” have said about things, really, and trust to my intuition when things that I read no longer agree with what I was taught. Still, I try to always give others their soap box and their belief set.

        Regarding the quiet Sun. Another of the Supicious0bservers positions has been on what they call “micro-novae.” Little explosions that blast material off the face of the Sun and into the surrounding space. It sounded like there was literally a shell of material forming around the Sun, if you will, and at some point that shell is expelled. It could be that the formation of this “shell” has been trapping part of the normal outflow from the Sun, thus lowering the total solar energy being radiated, thus giving the appearance of a “quiet Sun.” They were saying that this micro-nova could happen within the next 60 years or so, an could well bring on a near extinction of life on Earth, much like some of the incidents in the past did. Guess that is all the more reasons why we should do the “new age” thing and “live in the now,” and not be too concerned about the past or the future. I’ll have to look up more about “Taylor Instability” and see where my gut takes me.

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