ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Barneo and Submarine Views– (with raving update)

At this time of year there tends to be some hubbub about places in the arctic where there is less ice than usual. This year the focus is over in Bering Strait. I really lack the time to counter such hubbubs with humor, but instead direct you to my post of last year:

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2017/04/18/arctic-sea-ice-beaufort-buildup-bedlam/

That old posts contains the usual pictures of submarines surfacing in open water in the springs of 1959 and 1987, and so on and so forth. This year we have Youtube film of subs crashing up through baby-ice.

The start of the second clip has some good shots of airplanes landing on the ice, as well as areal views of the thicker pressure-ridges planes can’t land on. All in all it tends to give one a more genuine idea of how frozen the sea is, up there in April. It counters the perception some media create, that suggests the arctic is all but devoid of sea-ice.

There haven’t been as many pictures from Barneo as there usually are. Irena posted a couple pictures, one of the ice from the air:

1st 2 30530871_1611136272288849_2700780383250677760_n

And one picture of the jumbled ice of a pressure ridge:

1st 3 30515566_1611135655622244_8033315386013253632_n

There are apparently the usual problems with cracks on the landing strip.

But the problems have apparently been overcome.

We will be missing O-buoy camera’s this summer, unless we can get O-buoy 14 up and running again. It was spotted by polar bear hunters. (Hat tip to Nigel.)

1st 1 41441777872_e340c3b680_z

I’ll add more later, but now I’m off to meet a six-hour-old grandson, because there are some things more important than sea-ice.

*******

BRIEF RAVE RESPONDING TO ALARMIST CONTENTION I DON’T CARE FOR GRANDCHILDREN

Many of you Alarmist whippersnappers have no children, (though you may have caused or had abortions). Therefore you can have no idea of what it is like to care for a child, let alone a grandchild. Consequently your lectures about “caring” have the echo-less hollowness of a vacuum. You cannot care about what you have never known.

1st 5 FullSizeRender

Alarmist thought is based on fear. It is pitiable. The pity is that much beauty is missed, when you dare not venture out from under your bed. Not that I too was not once young and in many ways petrified at the prospect of going out into the world. However I realized that hiding under the bed was a worse place to die than out under the blue sky, so I headed out to die. But I didn’t die. Instead I discovered that all the Alarmist prophets were false prophets. Life was no bed of roses, but was beautiful despite all the thorns.

What’s more, the failure promised to me never came true. It was true I never became rich, but I never starved. Where there’s a will there’s a way, and it is surprising what you can do when you have to. So what if you have to work three jobs to get by? It is worth it for the Beauty. So what if you are not fashionable? Are not thought highly of? Never get a week’s vacation? You get beautiful moments Hollywood stars and starlets never know. Holding a grandchild in your arms is a more obvious example, but, if you keep your eyes open and know how to look for them,  they are gifted to you every day.

What does this have to do with arctic sea-ice? It has to do with the fact that Alarmism hides under a bed, and refuses to go out and see what it is like when you simply leave the shadows and observe under the blue sky. Instead Alarmists see the people who do go out and gather actual evidence as being evil.

After all, listen to them. Are they not saying there is no reason to come out from under their bed? The “world is going to end”, if people keep doing what people do, which is to come out from under the bed and do what it takes to raise families. Therefore it is “saving the world” to keep hiding. People who function, people who run small businesses and pay their bills, people who feed and clothe and educate their children, are “over populating the earth” and should be afraid, and be like the so-called wise, who do the wise thing, which is to hide, and never experience the joy of being an ordinary “plugger”, who does what it takes to survive.

The strangest thing is that the people hiding under their beds call those who are not so afraid and alarmed, “Deniers”. But what am I denying?

Have I not confessed I too was scared, and hid under my bed, when I was young? I don’t deny that. But then I ventured out, because I didn’t deny a simple fact: I could not be an expert on life outside of the shadows under the bed, unless I went out and investigated. Then, when I investigated, I discovered one could survive, and also that there was beauty I could not deny. Yet, because I have done the bold and scientific thing, which is to investigate the unknown, I find myself called a “Denier”, by the very people who dare not be so bold, and remain hiding under beds.

In terms of arctic sea-ice this strange mentality becomes apparent when I simply try to say what I have gone out and seen. Alarmists do not want to hear it. They are positively adamant about their blindness. After all, more than a decade has passed since I first was told what a fool I am. I was informed the North Pole was absolutely and positively going to be ice-free by 2013. It wasn’t. Yet five years later the same people are telling me the sea-ice is absolutely and positively on the verge of vanishing.

It isn’t, but I still catch hell. What am I to conclude?

In some ways I conclude some are beyond help. They are so determined to prove they are justified in hiding under their bed that they will never know the joy I have known, getting out to breathe the fresh air of the Truth.

End rave. Not as short as I intended, but over.

Now let us look at what is beautiful, which is the sea-ice as the Creator made it. Let’s compare this year’s ice with last years: (2017 to left, 2018 to right.)

 

What jumps out at me is that what I called “The Laptev Notch” is missing this year. I imagine the ordinary export of sea-ice from the Laptev Sea to the Central Arctic must be far less,  and I therefore expect the Central Arctic to hold less ice. I’m wrong, as usual. Instead the Central Arctic holds more ice. Also there is more sea-ice along the East Siberian coast. Lastly, there is (so far) a failure on the part of polynyas to form on the opposite side of the Pole from the usual Laptev polynyas. Polynyas also tend to form at the mouth of the Mackenzie River, and at the northwest coast of Alaska.

1st 6 beaufort-polynyas-poly-3-bathurst-and-w-beaufort-polynyas_1975-vs-2015_polarbearscience

The failure of such polynyas to form is making a further fool of me, because, according to my brand of so-called logic, if this sea-ice isn’t shifted north, there should be less ice to the north. But, when I look to the map I posted above, there is thicker ice in the Central Arctic.

What the heck is causing the Central Arctic Ice to thicken?

At this point I tend to sneak into the camp of the enemy, to see what Alarmists are making of this reality. My favorite site to lurk at is run by “Brother Neven”,  who likely would never plug my site, but I will plug his, with reservations. (For example, some failure-to-communicate exists between him and Tony Heller of the “Real Climate Science” site, and I think there may also be a feud between him and Anthony Watts of the “Watts Up With That” site. Pity. For Brother Neven’s site contains a wealth of sea-ice information. I just never dare utter a peep there, fearing I will be treated like Tony and Anthony, who I greatly respect and who are smarter than I. If they get trashed at that site, I’ll have no hope, and will bite my tongue while visiting, and will quietly lurk.)

I’ve been busy and haven’t had much time to lurk much amidst the wealth of information Neven makes available. So far I haven’t yet found a “forum” even considering the fact that sea-ice is thickening in the Central Arctic. Instead I mostly find people who seem to be hiding under their beds, and desperately searching for reasons to hope the sea-ice is shrinking.

I might as well tell you where they look for hope.

First, they focus on Bering Strait. If you compare 2017 to 2018 you will notice the sea-ice is less this year south of the strait (though greater in the Okhotsk Sea), and there are holes of thinner ice north of the strait. This deficiency is explained as being due to a number of theoretical reasons, the hope being that these reasons will override every other reason, and the thin ice there will spread over the entire Pole.

A slight problem with this logic involves the PDO, which has inched (just barely) into “cold” territory for the first time in years. (Actually it should be called “neutral”) (Note the “+” at the lowest right of the chart below.)

1st 7 pdo_short

Why does the PDO matter? Because (though I do not understand the engineering) when the PDO is positive sea-ice melts like crazy north of Bering Strait, and when it is negative the sea-ice stubbornly refuses to melt. Therefore the PDO is moving in the wrong direction to arrive at the results Alarmists desire.

A second thing Alarmists focus on is the narrow tongue of open water probing northeastwest of Svalbard. This represents a tendril of the Gulf Stream which invades the arctic there, even as a far colder current plunges south, clinging to the east coast of Greenland. Alarmists hold high hope for this warm current, and post beautiful satellite evidence of sea-ice moving south into that warmer current, and being swiftly melted. They seem to hope the warm current will melt the entire Pole.

The problem is that melting all that sea-ice cools the current. It consequently has less power as it moves north of Svalbard, Ordinarily it plunges under the colder but fresher waters north of Svalbard (because warm water is more dense than cold water if it is more salty), but now it is less likely to do so because melting ice makes it not only colder but less salty, and therefore it will have less of an “underground” effect further northeast. And, to the northeast, the sea-ice is not retreating north, but advancing south, in Barents Sea.

Lastly, Alarmists focus on the frozen-over Polynya north of Greenland, where ice is usually piled up thickly. Likely the unusual pushing of this sea-ice north contributed to the thicker ice in the Central Arctic, but Alarmists apparently hope retreat of sea-ice from the north coast of Greenland is evidence the sea-ice is in rapid retreat all over the Pole.

The problem remains that the sea-ice is thicker over the Central Arctic. My question remains unanswered, even after lurking on Alarmist sites. What the heck is going on?

I mean, just look at how the DMI chart (admittedly “modeled”) shows the volume of sea-ice increases greatly this spring, to levels higher than 2015’s.

1st 7 FullSizeRender

How can this be ignored?

In case you are new to this obscure site, I should tell you that a  year ago an Alarmist I nicknamed “Sty” visited this site, and ridiculed me for not seeing that “volume” mattered more than both “area” and “extent”, in terms of sea-ice. (“Volume” was at very low levels, a year ago.) Where is he now?

I sure would like to talk about what is going on, but instead I have a sense some people prefer hiding under their beds. They are so sure bad things are going on they don’t want to come out and see what is actually happening.

What’s so bad about it? It is what it is. Let’s deal with it!

I should not conclude without mentioning the AMO, which influences sea-ice on the Atlantic side. It is rising, after a remarkable plunge it took last January and February, and it remains “warm”.

1st 8 amo_short

However, although “warm”, it is far “colder” than it was in recent years, and therefore I assume it will be of less help, in terms of melting sea-ice.

All things considered, I will stick my neck out and venture this guess: There is no cotton-picking way the sea-ice will melt as much this year as it did last year.

Am I denying something, saying what I say? If I am, tell me what I am missing. But until I am given some information I haven’t received, I will not accept being called a “Denier”. Instead I’ll simply see myself as a fellow who didn’t like hiding under his bed.

Stay tuned.

By the way. here is the link to “Brother Neven’s” website:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php

10 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Barneo and Submarine Views– (with raving update)

    • Thank you. The little fellow seemed surprisingly alert, and quietly looked about a world that must have appeared blurry, seeming to attend to the various voices.

  1. There are some interesting correlations as I view the PDO and AMO graphs. First the PDO, There was a shift in surface winds around Drakes Passage around July/August of 2017 which caught my attention. It resulted in surface winds blocking the southeast flow of warm surface winds in the Pacific from moving through Drakes Passage. The new flow is now cold Antarctic winds moving easterly then north which continually push any warm surface winds to the north. The warm winds then move across the mountains of lower South America. While those cold winds then push north up the coast of SA, pushing cold surface waters north as well.. This new shift has remained dominant since then. Question. was this change somehow induced by the change to a cooler PDO? …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-99.29,-22.07,672/loc=-76.669,-31.006

    and another look, notice that warm winds once again are trying to move southeast. Watch what happens over the next several days, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-99.29,-22.07,672/loc=-76.669,-31.006

    • Secondly, the AMO, early last year I noticed a change in surface winds to the south of Greenland which were cutting eastward from around Nova Scotia, and moving towards Europe. My main interest at the time was observing the massive Greenland SMB gain which was underway through that entire winter of 2016/17. However after watching these surface winds remain consistent for some several months into May 2017, I concluded that the effect of these winds would be to reduce the summer surface melt on Greenland, and that the wind pattern would also lead to an early end for the Greenland melt season. I made a comment in May 2017 stating that. I even stated perhaps as early as mid August for the end of the summer melt season. On August 15th 2017 the summer melt season ended. I would add that hitting the exact date for that was merely coincidental/lucky; but my original thought was spot on as to cause and effect.

      Notice how the change in the AMO correlates with that change in surface winds to the south of Greenland. Ever since then, the main pattern of winds in the North Atlantic has been a blocking pattern which prevents warm surface winds from moving straight north up the middle of the North Atlantic, and then into arctic waters. There have only been a few occasions where that pattern changes, and the eastward blocking winds always reasserted themselves. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-22.33,64.44,672/loc=-26.355,54.298

    • That was fast. Not the same, now that the former leader has passed on. They used to get far more publicity. I suppose there are some pictures on Facebook, from the marathon. I’ll have to do some searching, when I have time. (Perhaps visiting the Pole is no longer the “in” thing to do, among the very-wealthy?)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.