UNINTELLIGENT DESIGN

Sunspots 0412 latest.jpg

I confess there are times I am intimidated by intelligence. There is a certain sort of very-intelligent person who can adopt a chilling condescension which gets me ducking down like a prairie dog, and I don’t pop back up until they leave the room. This is a pity, for them, for they miss a lot, by being so smart.

This seems especially true in terms of meteorological subjects that involve many variables. The excessively-learnéd may know a great deal about a single variable, but, by dampening discussion with their superior attitude, they do not get input about variables they know less about, or haven’t even considered.

In some ways I prefer the company of the blissfully ignorant, for, in merrily bouncing impractical and impossible ideas about, they, like the proverbial hundred chimpanzees on a hundred typewriters, blunder across genius. Also, they are far happier and have more fun.

There was one occasion, around thirty years ago, when I knew a snide and overpowering individual who, after berating a timid fellow’s interesting idea, must have thought about the idea later, for he adopted the timid fellow’s idea as his own, and I witnessed him ventilate it about a week later among a different group, giving absolutely no credit to the timid one he had earlier berated. He was congratulated for “his” idea, and may have felt he was raised in others estimation, but he shrank considerably in my own.

I tend to hold the view that Truth is out there, free for all, and amazing, and that it is an exercise in vanity to take credit for It’s existence. To take credit would be as if a van Gogh, in painting a “Starry Night”, took credit for creating the stars and the night.

Not that genius doesn’t deserve recognition for seeing Truth, and for in some form communicating and/or replicating It, but Truth was there all along. For example, Bach deserves credit for seeing the mathematics of music, but those realities were there even when men beat drums in caves.

In terms of meteorology I think we are like men in caves, facing Bach’s harmony sung by angels in a vision. We are aware there is majestic perfection involved, but the meteorological violin and oboe haven’t been invented yet, and there is no way to scientifically communicate and/or replicate what we sense. But this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. We just need to be very humble as we try.

I got to thinking along these lines because I have been lurking around the edges of various discussions about “The Quiet Sun”, at various websites. Everyone seems to know that the variations of a variable star must have some effect, as the Sun is the greatest power in the physical solar system, but no one seems to be able to put their finger on exactly what the effect is. I’ve ventured a few ideas, but I’ve discovered that when I venture an idea I swiftly get lambasted by superior intelligence, whereupon I adopt my prairie dog strategy.

Just because I’ve ducked down into my underground doesn’t mean I’ve stopped pondering, and soon enough I poke my nose up, to see if the intelligent people have left the room, and if they have I scurry off to seek my fellow fools, who can be found at assorted websites where intelligence is measured by happiness.

One idea I’ve chanced upon explains why the effect of the Quiet Sun is so hard to see. This idea suggests the effect is hard to see because people are looking for a single “thing”, when in fact the Quiet Sun is affecting every “thing”. Because the effects are occurring at many places at the same time, the effects tend to cancel each other out, or overlap, or to appear as a confusing mishmash.

In Truth, there is no confusion. It is all a splendid harmony. The confusion only occurs in our skulls, when we try to “figure out” something so vast. Therefore it pays to just give it up, from time to time, and just sit back and enjoy the view, or enjoy the ride. However then, as soon as we are refreshed and revitalized, our inquisitive side is bound to reappear, and we then should be able to have some fun, as long as we don’t allow our pride to spoil the pleasures of intelligence.

Because we are facing something that is so vast, involving multifarious manifestations, one thing I thought it might be fun to do is to compile a list of all the things the Quiet Sun “might” be changing. We would be, at this point in our discussion, like cavemen jotting down the notes of angelic music they hear, without attempting to figure out the structures of harmony and rhythm and modulation and counterpoint that Bach understood.

My purpose, or hope, is that, in creating such a list, we would avoid focusing exclusively on any one topic, and thus avoid the myopia of specialization. Then (perhaps) we might be more able to see how the Quiet Sun’s effects mask each other, cancel each other out, or harmonize in peculiar ways.

Furthermore I think that, in order to collect as many ideas as possible, (no matter how zany the idea may initially appear), all so-called “intelligent” people should be banned from the discussion. (Or at least from deriding each other’s ideas).

I’ll begin by sharing a couple of ideas I’ve chanced upon, and then give the floor over to others.

1.) The Quiet Sun has opened the North Pole’s “damper”.

This idea is based upon the hypothesis that, with the planet losing a lot of its heat at the Pole, there may be some dynamic that speeds-up or slows-down the loss of heat. (I have also heard this dynamic described amorphously as a “background”). I originally saw it as an Alarmist idea, explaining how CO2 could make it warmer at the Pole in the winter, but the concept had trouble flying because A.) The Pole has recently been below-normal during the summer and B.) If CO2 “closed the damper”, one would expect less warm air to rush up to the Pole, but in fact we have seen a meridional flow bring more warm air rushing north during the winters, which suggests a “damper” has been opened more widely. However, if these things disprove CO2 “closed” this so-called “damper”, then they might conversely indicate the “damper” was “opened”, and the Quiet Sun seems as good an “opener” as any.

(Intelligent people will want to know how the heck such a “damper” is constructed, which is why they are forbidden from speaking until we get our list completed.)

2.) The Quiet Sun reduces energy available for winds.

The image of cavemen lacking oboes and violins might again be useful, when we consider primitive people did (and do) have drums, and flutes made of reeds. The equivalent instruments used by our modern, (yet still primitive), form of meteorology are thermometers and anemometers. Most people who are looking for effects of the Quiet Sun use thermometers, and expect them to read lower-than-normal, but perhaps they should look at the energy measured by anemometers, and see if they are lower-than-normal.

This idea came up as an ingenious way to explain why the Quiet Sun was failing to chill the planet, as some expected it would. It was suggested that if the Trade Winds slowed even a small amount it would effect the oscillations between El Ninos and La Ninas, making the El Ninos stronger and the La Ninas weaker, and this would make the planet warmer (at least at first.) This would explain the counter-intuitive phenomenon of less energy creating more energy, (because less trade winds create more El Nino conditions).

(Of course intelligent people will….but they have to observe silence, for just a bit longer.)

Now I turn the floor over to others. I only ask that they number their ideas. For example, the next idea should be “3.)” This will help us later on, when we allow the intelligent people in, to begin their usual belittling process of scorn and derision.

However no deriding is allowed, for the first eight hours. The prairie dogs will not surface from their comfortable underground bunkers, unless there are no coyotes lurking, and no shadows of buzzards. I think that if we ban coyotes and buzzards we will soon have a somewhat fantastic garden of ideas.

After eight hours all the prairie dogs can dive for cover, as the intelligent descend upon the garden with their long knives. Sad to say, but they are a fact of science, and of art, and of life.

Strange to say, but the worst of the intelligent are seldom remembered, though they think they are grandiosely trumpeting the fabulous nature of their own brilliance and fame. Copernicus is remembered, Galileo is remembered, Alfred Wegener is remembered, but who remembers the intelligentsia that mocked them, scorned their ideas, and laughed aloud at the very mention of their names? (Even when the scornful are remembered, it is not in a flattering way.)

Perhaps it is for this reason that the best of the intelligent express their skepticism with gentleness, and respect for the dignity of fellow thinkers. After all, in a world when many seldom use the minds God gifted them with, we should be glad to meet people who do use their minds, even if their ideas seem “a bit out there”.

106 thoughts on “UNINTELLIGENT DESIGN

  1. Okay, and with the advantage of the dateline ( which made us the 1st to declare war on Nazidom, no doubt to Adolph’s disgust at Britain only sending a chihuahua), I’ll say:
    3/ Jetstream meridionality from slightly reduced high frequency tropical ocean heating and less pressure polewards to hold jetstreams tightly in place around the polar vortices.
    4/ Similarly, collapsed thermosphere which lets Hubble keep flying. A very clear effect unless blinded by beliefs.
    Next, back to watching the Commonwealth Games in Queensland….. While the meridional gales blow outside.

    • Crazy weekend. I’m only now (Sunday night) able to focus on the comments more deeply than a quick glance.

      I’ve been very two-dimensional, deeming the upper atmosphere “above my head”, but there seems no way around some of the big changes the Quiet Sun has up at that level.

      As I recall the UV changes are bigger than the TSI changes. And the UV effects Ozone…and so forth.

      I hope I get more time to ponder about this stuff. It is fascinating.

    • Well then Caleb, I have been thinking along similar lines to a degree. I am an odd duck, a college dropout who was gifted with a fairly high quality mind. More than that I was twice gifted as I was touched by the hand of God at the end of 1966, my greatest gift.

      So here I am now where I have made quite a few successful forecasts/predictions over the last 4 years in my odd way, because I travel the unmarked paths. So perhaps this is where I should be to join efforts to see what might be discovered on the unmarked path. Besides, you bear an uncanny resemblance to my brother in your picture above showing you from the side. I have read some of your thoughts in the past, and always thought well of the way in which you express yourself. I will share here.

      • Goldminor,

        The picture is from when I first opened the Childcare, ten years ago. I’m grayer, balder and more wrinkly, now.

        I do have a dreamy side that loves to contemplate God, but we likely should save that conversation for another post. Lots of data to digest, with this post.

      • Agreed, note that I very seldom ever bring up that side in the years in which I have participated in this conversation. I will of course honor and respect your request.

    • ren,

      Sorry to be so slow to respond to all your input. It’s a weekend without much time off, for me.

      This is a fascinating map. I knew the tropopause was lower up at the Pole, but never visualized that lowness coming so far south.

    • “In satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface.”

      • Abstract

        In this study we show that correspondence of the main structures of geomagnetic field, near surface air temperature and surface pressure in the mid-latitudes, reported previously in the 1st part of the paper, has its physical foundation. The similar pattern, found in latitude-longitude distribution of the lower stratospheric ozone and specific humidity, allows us to close the chain of causal links, and to offer a mechanism through which geomagnetic field could influence on the Earth’s climate. It starts with a geomagnetic modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and ozone production in the lower stratosphere through ion-molecular reactions initiated by GCR. The alteration of the near tropopause temperature (by O3 variations at these levels) changes the amount of water vapour in the driest part of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), influencing in such a way on the radiation balance of the planet. This forcing on the climatic parameters is non-uniformly distributed over the globe, due to the heterogeneous geomagnetic field controlling energetic particles entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
        http://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111146

  2. In the long periods of low solar activity, at the end of winter, ozone tends to accumulate in greater amounts above the Canada. Now we have such a situation. A large amount of ozone blocks the circulation.

    • I am curious about how the Quiet Sun affects the production of Ozone, and its destruction (Ozone Holes). Imagine it is connected to changes in UV rays.

    • Here is a thought, does the reduction in upper level winds due to the Quiter Sun lead to enhanced surface winds? I say that as it is more than evident to me that surface winds have significantly increased in recent years.Here for example, I would approximate that these surface winds are around 50% more abundant as well as being stronger as compared to past years. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-253.20,-86.88,495

      • gm, what i’ve been noticing as QS bites is more surface violence of winds eg faster. I think it may result from the loopy jetstream straightening out the windruns.
        We see a less ciruituous path both ways ie steeper gradients. That would do the job.
        It has long been said that warmer weather means less bad weather, i guess this is the other end of the stick?

      • Thanks, these additional bits of info mean a lot to me. I work a good bit off of remembering what I have seen over time, in part. Actually, I came to realize recently that I could just about detail surface wind patterns from anywhere around the globe from memory as I have spent so much time observing through earthnullschool.

        I can spin the globe inside.

      • I think Brett is right, as history shows colder times were more stormy, leading to famine in Europe when crops rotted in wet fields. However that is likely due to the jet stream being loopy, which effects the mid latitudes. I am curious if winds are less at the equator. Also some suggest the jet is loopy (meridional) because it is not “held in check” by strong winds at the Pole, in a tight zonal pattern.

      • Secondly, the August change. Definitely a cooling pattern, if it continues to hold, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-81.43,-52.52,672

        Currently you see warm surface winds moving south through Drakes Passage. This is currently several days old. What happens though is that cold surface winds have continually broken these southerly flowing warm winds with north flowing cold surface winds which then move up the west side of South America. In years prior the south warm flow was dominant. That is what has changed. If this new pattern holds for some years, then we will see ocean temps drop and global cooling as a result, imo.

      • Both of those changes would derive from changes higher up in the atmosphere. I have finally started observing the upper levels, but it will likely take several years for me to absorb some level of understanding of what I am observing, just as it took me some years to formalize my thoughts as to the validity of the theorized Pacific Northwest flood cycle. I have been successful in that regard.

      • This old computer thinks “nullschool” is a virus and refuses to open it. I’ll have to check it out later, on my cell phone.

        Thanks for the input.

        The interaction between the upper atmosphere and the surface increasingly attracts my attention. I had no idea, (until “ren” brought it to my attention), that ozone from the stratosphere could dive down to anywhere near the surface.

        This world is wondrously made, and, as Robert Lewis Stephenson put it, “The world is so full of a number of things, that I’m sure we all should be happy as kings.” But tomorrow is a Monday Morning, and we’ll see if I remember, or instead become a blasted old grouch grunting, “This world is full of crap”.

      • I had a problem with earthnull a few months back after a new update from beloved Microsoft. After stepping back with a restore, and not allowing that one update I was able to again use my beloved earthnull amazing learning tool.

    • Actually I likely should qualify 2.) because I imagine the decrease in the solar energy causing less winds would be more apparent at the equator, where there would be reduced Trade Winds. As you head north (or south) the lessening of winds might be masked, because a more meridional jet stream would allow clashes of air-masses, and big storms, which of course are very windy.

      • I wonder. Would a lowering of the total atmosphere as a cool trend sets in cause the increase in surface winds which I have taken note of for the last 18 months, approximately. There is no doubt that the surface winds are covering a greater area, and are also slightly faster in many regions, from what I can see. I will have to take some time to study the library of pics which I have built up over the last 3 years.

      • I confess I do not have the spare time to properly amass data. Mostly I observe and keep things in the back of my mind.

        I will be watching to see if the summer shows an El Nino grow “stronger than expected”. That would indicate weaker Trade Winds.

      • As do I regarding the back of the mind comment. I have always been like that. I think that aided me when ever I took tests in my school years. I always tested high.

        As for the trade winds, I have zero thoughts on their propagation. There is just too many moving parts to all of this. I have started watching the different levels which comprise the atmosphere, but I expect that it will take at least one full year to begin to grasp a small part of what I am observing. I love the challenge.

  3. Caleb,
    First a quick diversion into your comment about clever people and taking other people’s ideas as there own. For a brief period i worked in a group whose leader was just such a pirate, very clever but good at first dismissing ideas then taking them as his own. After two such experiences I stopped putting forward ideas in team meetings. A couple of years later when no longer in that team I discovered at least one other had suffered the same experienced and used the same keep quiet tactic rather than boost this guys career. How much has human development been delayed by these people?

    There have been a couple of stories at the BBC which seem to go against the standard story line.
    First
    On the night of 7 December 1703, the United Kingdom was visited by an extreme weather event.

    Following weeks of wind and rain, a cyclone blew through the country at midnight, from the Welsh coasts to the Midlands and the south of England, hitting the cities of Bristol and London in particular. The storm also wreaked havoc in continental Europe, causing severe damage in the Netherlands, the Danish islands and Germany.

    http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170309-in-1703-britain-was-struck-by-possibly-its-worst-ever-storm
    Goes against the Met Office and BBC trumpeting “worst ever” for recent events.

    Second
    Scientists have compiled a record of snowfall in Antarctica going back 200 years. The study shows there has been a significant increase in precipitation over the period, up 10%. Dr Liz Thomas, from the British Antarctic Survey
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43691671

    For the first it suggests that the BBC have taken notice of the fact that, perhaps, the 20th and 21st centuries haven’t been exceptionally stormy.

    The second is more interesting, on viewing the headline my first thought was that 200 years of heavier than normal snow would/should cause an acceleration in glacier growth and eventually the creation of icebergs breaking off ice shelfs. Then the second thought was did the Little Ice Age cause reduced snowfall in Antarctica.

    A couple more, first Yamal anyone?
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43727547

    “I was super surprised, and a little bit puzzled,” Anja Rutishauser, the study’s lead author, said of the discovery. “I was definitely not looking for subglacial lakes.”
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43701375

    • Ben,

      Thanks for those links. I hadn’t heard about increased snow in Antarctica before. That would suggest 200 years of warming, as there is so little moisture down that way, when its cold. Or perhaps the southern jet is more meridional than it was 200 years ago?

      “ren” supplies a link to a paper by Willie Soon further down in these comments. When reading it I was struck by how clear the writing was. It then occurred to me that perhaps clarity is related to Truthfulness. When scientists have to do a sort of waltz with political correctness they start to stray from the Truth, and their writing grows increasingly unintelligible, until it it becomes balderdash.

      Stand by the Truth and the Truth will stand by you. And that includes giving credit where credit is due. People who boost their own careers by stealing others ideas seldom come to a good end. They wind up in a position they do not deserve to be, like people promoted due to nepotism or cronyism, and then, like a child operating a vehicle they don’t know how to drive, they crash.

      I wonder what happened to the fellow you describe, in the end.

      • Imo, this Warm Period started in the early 1700s.I realize that most everyone states the LIA as ending in the 1800s, but I disagree with that thought.

      • It may have been warming, but the Dalton minimum starting in 1798 the eruption of super-volcanoes in 1810 and 1815 put things on hold, I imagine.

        I also imagine that it makes a big difference whether cycles are heading in a “warming” or a “chilling” direction, when an abrupt influence like a super-volcano adds its power to the mix.

      • Intellicast is a great site. I have used them for years. I used them to observe historical temps and current temps which showed clearly that the warming is mainly a function of warmer night time temps. I think that this is due to warmer oceans heating night air which is then carried over land by surface winds.

  4. Summary
    This chapter gives a brief historical overview of the scientific study of
    the Sun–climate relationship. We then provide evidence for the existence
    of physical links between total solar irradiance (TSI) and Northern
    Hemisphere surface air temperature records from Arctic, US, Ireland
    and China, as well as the composite four-region record, as recently
    reported in Soon, Connolly and Connolly (2015). The results for TSI
    and conterminous US and Ireland temperature records is new. We use
    quality-controlled datasets for both TSI and surface temperature records
    avoiding issues that can arise from the contamination of temperature
    records by non-climatic factors. This is achieved by either adopting
    rural-only temperature datasets or urbanisation-corrected records. In
    this study, we show how TSI may be correlated with atmospheric water
    vapour. Left for future investigation is the development of a comprehensive
    theory of the climate and Sun–climate connection.

    Click to access SoonBaliunas17-June8-FINAL-CCTF2017_Ch11_2pp.pdf

  5. An observation and a question:

    When the temperature of the near surface air in the mid latitudes increases by say half a degree it can be observed that the temperature of the air at the 200 hPa level, air that is close enough to the tropopause to contain appreciable amounts of ozone, simultaneously increases by a multiple of the increase in the temperature of the air near the surface, in this instance perhaps 1.5 degrees a ratio of three to one.

    The same phenomenon can be observed in the relationship between the temperature of the air at 500 hPa where half of the atmosphere is above and half below, except that the difference between the temperature of the near surface air and the air at 500 hPa is less exaggerated, perhaps 1 to 1.5 in the ratio one to the other.

    So, the question arises: Is it the increase in the temperature of the air between 500 hPa and 200 hPa that is responsible for the smaller increase in the temperature of the air at the surface or is it the other way round?

    How is it that the upper air (in the troposphere) can warm more than the air at the surface? What is the agent of this warming? Where is the energy coming from to warm that upper air? Why does the air at the surface warm simultaneously but to a smaller degree?

    • Good question, and I have no answer. Need to think about it.

      One thing occurs to me, and that is the air gets much thinner as you head up. There are far fewer molecules of air bouncing about. I imagine that makes it take less energy to get molecules bouncing faster. Therefore a degree of rise at the surface amounts to three degrees several miles up.

      Does this make sense? (I am just talking through my hat.)

      Thanks for visiting and commenting.

  6. Very interesting. Lowest TSI in over 40 years, according to PMOD.

    I wonder how low TSI was before the graph begins. You would think it would be very low, with all the talk about an “Ice Age” back in the mid 1970’s.

  7. It has been wonderful to get so many comments to a post. This sure beats the old days, when all I’d get for writing was a faceless rejection slip! Thanks to all (and especially the prolific “ren”.)

  8. Caleb says “… but who remembers the intelligentsia that mocked them, scorned their ideas, and laughed aloud at the very mention of their names? ..”. Spot on thinking. Thanks for sharing that insightful tidbit of an observation.

  9. Recent experiments with chemistry-climate models reveal that the local ozone production at extratropical latitudes dominates its transportation from the tropics6, which contradicts the popular idea that tropical photochemistry is the single source of stratospheric O3. Analysis of the efficiency of photochemical reactions beneath the peak of the ozone layer shows that they could hardly be the main source of O3 – especially at winter high latitudes. In this paper we show that ion-molecular reactions, launched in the layer of secondary electrons – itself generated near the tropopause by galactic cosmic rays, could serve as a local source of ozone at middle to high latitudes. Careful inspection of the reactions’ efficiency reveals that extremely dry atmosphere above the tropopause favors the production of the short-lived tetraoxygen ion , whose dissociation activates an autocatalytic production of ozone. Our modeling calculations show that the electron impact production of O3 is comparable with its climatological density near the maximum of the free electrons layer. Moreover, statistical analysis of the connectivity between GCR and ozone at 70 hPa divulges the hemispherical asymmetry of the O3 response to GCR forcing. This asymmetrical response we attribute to the hemispherically asymmetric geomagnetic field, which controls the depth of penetration in the atmosphere, as well as the intensity and the spatial distribution of precipitating charged particles in the Earth’s atmosphere. The heterogeneously distributed energetic particles and the ion-molecular reaction triggered by them could explain the well-established hemispherical and longitudinal asymmetry in the spatial distribution of ozone.

    Hemispherical asymmetry of the lower… (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314962126_Hemispherical_asymmetry_of_the_lower_stratospheric_O3_response_to_galactic_cosmic_rays_forcing [accessed Apr 16 2018].

    • The local growth of ozone in the lower stratosphere causes a fall in temperature in the troposphere in winter, because water vapor enters the stratosphere and falls in the tropopause. This can be imagined as mixing of water vapor and ozone.

    • So this suggests a second way ozone is created. Very interesting. Do you know how this paper is being received? (I likely should do the work myself, but am just stirring from bed, and have to deal with some Monday morning bad weather. It’s still below freezing here, and icy out.)

      • Yes, it turns out that secondary galactic radiation in high latitudes can produce ozone in the lower stratosphere. It is very important, in the period of low solar activity, galactic radiation is able to penetrate into the lower layers of the atmosphere .
        This is very important in winter when the lack of UV radiation in the stratosphere over the polar circle. However, galactic radiation is focused by the Earth’s magnetic field. Magnetic field it is broken into two centers in the north.
        The observed magnetic field is highly asymmetrical.
        Lines of inclination are highly elliptical, with the North Magnetic Pole situated near one end of the ellipse.
        The strength of the magnetic field is no longer a maximum at the North Magnetic Pole. In fact, there are now two maxima, one over central Canada, the other over Siberia.
        Magnetic meridians do not converge radially on the North Magnetic Pole.
        http://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/mag_fld/arctics-en.php

      • These magnetic field anomalies in the north cause that ozone is only produced locally in winter by secondary electrons. Because it is the lower stratosphere, in these places the temperature grows and water vapor escapes. Changes in temperature weaken the polar vortex in these places.

      • It should be emphasized that the stratosphere at high latitudes directly touches the troposphere. The height of the tropopause is quite variable. It is different above the equator. There, the tropopause is very wide.

  10. 5/ I’ll hazard a stab at this one – the limpness of ENSO. It has not formed a full Nino or Nina since QS began. Joe Bastardi says El Nino is predicted now, but unusually he has been wrong there of late. Enough low input may have killed discharge (Nino) for now, but we shall see….Brett.

    • The ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict in April.

      Rotton weather here. I just heard a plow outside on the road. I suppose I should go out and face the music. 28 degrees F and drizzle. Yuk.

    • Here is what I think is the key change which will lead to a deep La Nina. Note the spot marked. In previous years it was common to see warm surface winds moving on a southeast heading through Drakes Passage. That all changed almost 1 year ago. Now the dominant pattern is cold surface winds flowing east, slamming into South America, and then pushing north up the coast.

      As you can see from the spot marked there is a current south flowing surface wind, in place for 4 days today, that will be forced out of the way by tomorrow most likely. The spot is the cold surface wind which then moves north up the west coast of SA after forcing the southeast flow out of the way. It also pushes cold surface waters north. If this pattern continues for a period of years, then you are looking at a climate shift in action. The other key climate shift point is up in the North Atlantic. This is happening right in front of our eyes, imo. There is no need to wait years in order to look back to see what happened, just pay attention to these two main climate shift points as they are driving the changes which we see in the NH. There is of course processes further up in the atmosphere driving the surface winds, but the surface winds are key as far as final effects, imo. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-88.84,-41.00,672/loc=-96.266,-51.957

      • So here we are some 48 hours later. As I stated above the surface winds once again pushed the south flowing surface winds back up the west coast of SA partially yesterday, and now completely today. Now there are cold surface winds pushing cold surface waters up the coast on the west side of SA, and so the new paradigm continues.

    • Very cool graphics! When the wave-lengths shorten the upper air lows rolling across the country are called “bowling balls” by some. I surmise they are a transitional phase, for they fade away to weak ripples by summer. It will be interesting to see them in terms of ozone and the height of the tropopause. Something knew to try to get my mind around.

  11. In the southern hemisphere, ozone is produced by galactic radiation in the region of the southern magnetic pole south of Australia.

  12. COSMIC RAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
    A variety of neutral and charged particles are produced in a cosmic ray shower (Figure 2). During a collision between an air molecule and a high energy cosmic ray, protons and neutrons and other secondary particles are released. Pions are particles with more mass than an electron, but less than a proton. They quickly decay in two ways. Charged pions decay into muons, and neutral pions decay into photons. Muons, produced by the charged pions are then also charged. The decay occurs so quickly that it often occurs before any other process can take place. At the point of decay the new muon jets off in another direction. Muons decay into an electron or positron (the antiparticle of the electron), and a neutrino. A neutral pion, as mentioned above, decays into two photons. Photons with enough energy can transform into an electron and positron. If a positron or an electron meets a nucleus in its path then another photon is created.

    The more energetic the primary cosmic ray, the deeper into the atmosphere the cosmic ray penetrates. Since cosmic ray particles lose energy in the atmosphere, not all secondary cosmic rays make it to the ground.

  13. If secondary galactic radiation increases the number of condensation nuclei for water vapor, the amount of water vapor in high and medium latitudes may decrease.

  14. It seems that the pattern of winter circulation over Canada is quite stable in periods of low solar activity. The polar vortex then has the tendency to divide into two centers:
    one over northern Canada, the other over Siberia.

    The dependence of this pattern on the magnetic field in the Arctic is obvious to me.

  15. Galactic radiation in periods of low solar magnetic activity changes the temperature in the lower stratosphere over the polar circle (especially during the polar night) not only by producing additional ozone, but also by producing additional CO2.
    “Carbon-14 is produced in the upper layers of the troposphere and the stratosphere by thermal neutrons absorbed by nitrogen atoms. When cosmic rays enter the atmosphere, they undergo various transformations, including the production of neutrons.

    The highest rate of carbon-14 production takes place at altitudes of 9 to 15 km (30,000 to 49,000 ft) and at high geomagnetic latitudes.

    The rate of 14C production can be modelled[12] [13] and is between 16,400 and 18,800 atoms 14C m−2s−1, which agrees with the global carbon budget that can be used to backtrack,[14] but attempts to directly measure the production rate in situ were not very successful. Production rates vary because of changes to the cosmic ray flux caused by the heliospheric modulation (solar wind and solar magnetic field), and due to variations in the Earth’s magnetic field.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14
    These local temperature changes (depending on the Earth’s magnetic field) disrupt the circulation in the polar vortex.

  16. So here is a quick thought on this “…2.) The Quiet Sun reduces energy available for winds. …”. I wonder if this has anything to do with why during the cool trends which bring the coldest temps to many areas, and regions such as where I live in Northern California that one also finds many of the record day time highs. That always puzzled me, although of late I have been beginning to formulate thoughts as to why that is so.

    Will think on this further, and add more later.

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