ARCTIC SEA ICE —A Shot In The Dark—

So far this autumn’s  injections of milder air towards the Pole do not match last year’s, but they are occurring. Temperatures are above normal. (2016 to left. 2017 to right.)


Once the sun has set at the Pole, above-normal temperatures up there are not indicative of heat coming in to Earth, but rather of heat departing.  After the autumn equinox there is no better place for the earth to lose extra heat than the Pole, and, unlike what many Global Warming Alarmists suggest, to have above-normal temperatures at the Pole between the autumn and spring equinox is a sign the planet is squandering its mildness, and not clutching warmth to its bosom via the powers of a trace greenhouse-gas.

Some of the heat-loss is due to open waters, not yet covered by sea-ice, which is opposite what many Alarmists think the effect of less sea ice will be. They think the open waters will absorb sunshine that ice-covered waters would reflect, but there is either no sun at all up there, or the sunlight is coming in at such a low angle that water reflects sunshine more efficiently than rough and dirty ice.

The rest of the heat-loss comes via plumes of mild air brought north by a meridional flow. These “feeder bands” have fed the low pressure I dubbed “Ralph” over the past year. The current DMI maps only show the weakest sort of “Ralph” northwest of Greenland, but a Ralph-like swirl of milder temperatures shows up more clearly on the temperature maps. (Pressures and Isobars to left; Temperatures and isotherms to right.)

If you are on your toes you should note the swirl of milder temperatures at the Pole is clockwise rather than counterclockwise, which makes it distinctly un-Ralph-like, and more closely associated with high pressure than low pressure. The high pressure towards East Siberia is a new and interesting feature, and likely hints at a new pattern.

When this high pressure first began to pump ten days ago it messed up my naming system. Ordinarily highs to the Canadian side are named “Byoof”, and the highs towards Russia are named “Igor”, but this one emerged precisely halfway between sides. So I’ll name this one “Halfy”.

Because Halfy ridged down towards the Atlantic, it started to create a flow that barely shows in the above temperature map, as a slight spike of warmth northeast of Greenland. This sort of spike ruins the nice circle of cold at the Pole a more zonal pattern would encourage, and over the past two years has often led to a Pole milder than lower latitudes. (More recently, as seen in today’s isobar maps (but less obvious in isotherm maps) a second mild feeder-band has headed north ahead of lows moving east along the coast of Siberia.)

Over at the Weatherbell Premium site, Joe Bastardi recently posted an article called, “Has Cooling Begun, in spite of the Warmth on the Global Temp?”  In this post on his blog (week free trial available) he pointed out that warmth at the Pole is a very relative term, especially when you attempt to consider its effect on the most major greenhouse gas, which is not a trace gas like CO2 but is a major driver of weather, namely H2O.

To put Joe’s calculations in a nutshell, he explained that temperatures ten degrees above-normal, up where it is very cold, only add a little more water vapor to the atmosphere.  That slight addition of H20 only slightly reduces the amount of heat lost to outer space during the arctic night.

If temperatures were ten degrees above-normal further south, where temperatures are milder, much more moisture would be added to the atmosphere. However, when the Pole is milder often sub-polar areas are in fact colder. This significantly reduces the H20 in the atmosphere, and consequently significantly reduces the ability of sub-polar regions to trap heat.

The figures Joe came up with were as follows. A ten degree difference at the Pole would make a .18 grams/kg difference in H20, whereas a ten degree difference down where 50° F was the average temperature would make a 1.74 grams/kg difference in H20.

In other words, if temperatures are ten below-average to the north and ten above-average to the south, it averages out as zero, if you consider temperatures alone (as many Alarmists do). However if you consider the change in H2O, the most major greenhouse gas, it does not average out to zero. It is not a matter of averaging +10 with -10, but rather of averaging +0.18 with -1.74. Yowza! What a huge difference!

At this point we need to leave the simplicity of DMI maps (which I prefer) and look at the Weatherbell maps made possible by the genius of Dr. Ryan Maue, for we need to compare how much of the Pole is above-normal with how much  of the sub-polar landscape is below-normal. (Temperature Maue-map to left; Anomaly Maue-map to right.)


The above maps demonstrate the Pole is above-normal, and also show the feeder-bands of mildness up the east coast of Greenland and up through the Kara Sea, but besides those two feeder-bands, all other sub-arctic areas are below-normal.

Using the Bastardi Hypothesis, all the below-average areas have less greenhouse H20 in their atmosphere, and are less able to trap heat. They also are further south where the sun is still shining. If you added up the heat lost from these sunny, southern areas, it likely would be greater than the heat trapped from sunless northern areas with a slight increase of H20 in their air. I haven’t heard many Alarmists consider this, in their calculations.

If I was an Alarmist I might point out that, in East Siberia, October is when temperatures plunge to levels colder than the Arctic Sea’s. Therefore the decrease in H20 in such an area is slight, and perhaps less than the increase at the Pole. (I would pay no attention to the area of the Arctic Sea just north of the Canadian Archipelago, where temperatures are far below-normal.)

Such arguments are an attempt to plug holes in a very leaky ship. The entire argument that states our planet’s temperatures are governed by variations in the albedo of sea-ice has been holed by a veritable shotgun, called reality.

For example, Alarmists think less ice at the Pole will proceed hand in hand with shrinking ice atop Greenland. Therefore Alarmists, looking at the above maps, might be glad to see the anomaly map shows the Atlantic-feed up the east coast of Greenland has the entire Greenland icecap above-normal. But the temperature map shows such air is far below freezing. Also, as such Atlantic air, rich in H20, is uplifted ten thousand feet it tends to fail to be a greenhouse gas, but rather to fall as anti-greenhouse snowflakes. Rather than the icecap of Greenland shrinking, we seem to be entering a second year of above-average increase.

Swirl 3 accumulatedsmb

The media will ignore the snows on Greenland and the sub-polar cold. All they will talk about is the Pole being above average. What I saw over a decade ago is becoming increasingly obvious to the layman. The media is payed to bleat like sheep.

People interested in the beauty of Truth, (which is my aim), should be aware current indications are suggestive of short-term cooling, and not warming. Personally I see no harm in buying extra firewood for the first half of next winter, even though I am sensing the second half may be more merciful for sub-polar regions, and am already out on a limb, for I have suggested that the flow may become zonal and we may stop seeing “feeder bands”  bringing mild air to the Pole. Around February 13 we may see the media stop focusing on how mild it is at the Pole, and instead focusing on an early end to winter in areas further south, calling the early spring proof of Global Warming.

My reasons? Basically they revolve around the fact the Pacific seems to be recovering from an effect of the Quiet Sun which represses La Ninas and encourages El Ninos. I did not expect the waters off Peru to be chilling as they now are:

Swirl 4 nino12_short

Unless the Quiet Sun is able to stunt this up-welling of cold water off Peru, patterns should change at the Pole, and Ralph will become a rarity.

Stay Tuned.

(By the way, I made much the same point a year ago, albeit a bit more bitterly, as it looked at that point as if Hillary would be elected, and the Global Warming fiction would go charging ahead full speed. Old post is here:) (The comments that post prompted were especially gratifying.)

1 thought on “ARCTIC SEA ICE —A Shot In The Dark—

  1. Though there is some spiking from the sun, it is important to know why – brightening or dead cat bounce from normal low end of cycle instability CME type eruptions. Ren says more are coming. As you know, the wind should decide the ENSO thing. Unless the Humboldt is emboldend by Antarcric sources. Who knows – not me. I’ll be betting on the Spring horse races soon eg Melbourne Cup, but not the weather…..

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