ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Delaying Tactics–

Call me jaded if you will, but I find it hard to stir the embers of my diminishing interest in the so-called Climate Wars into any sort of blaze. I have the sense I am not debating an idea, but rather dealing with a delaying-tactic.

When you are dealing with people inclined towards the immoral concept that “the ends justify the means”, their “ends” justify any and all untruth. Once debate has exposed their dishonesty, they need to slump to a fall-back position wherein they hope to avoid the consequences (of the exposure of their fraud) long enough for the “ends” to kick in. Their hope is that when they pass under a rainbow and through pearly gates to their dreamed-of utopia, some sort of statute of limitations will pardon them for their lies, calling them “white lies”. It was all for a good cause. Rather than seen as a lying scoundrel, they will be seen as a sort of James Bond, sneaking about enemy territory and fooling the enemy.

The problem is, spiritual law doesn’t work like that, and not even James Bond can escape spiritual law. What the West calls “Reaping-what-you-sow”, and the East calls “Karma”, is as inevitable and inescapable as the Law of Gravity. Action breeds reaction. The “ends” are not disconnected from the “means”.

It is for this reason the “ends” some  dream of, and are motivated by, are never achieved, when they sneer at Truth.   Stalin and Mao may have been able to point out how corrupted religious leaders, and how corrupted industrial fat cats, caused mankind much misery, but then they themselves caused far greater misery, and mankind never achieved the “ends” they promised. They could scoff at religion, pointing out so-called “Christians” cost 9 million lives during the Thirty Years War, but did they do any better, when the were involved in the loss of ten times as many lives? (90 million.)

If “religion is the opiate of the masses”, then socialism is the “opiate of the heartless”.

Heartless? Yes, for, when you approach those who are honest and who mean well and who want to have an honest discussion, and willfully distort truth and lie right to their faces, how can you claim to have a heart? You may think you are crafty, sly, and a veritable James Bond, but in fact you are devious and hateful to those who trust you, and such behavior never passes under the arches of a rainbow and is transmuted from lead into gold. Instead, if you have lived by the sword, you will die by the sword. What goes around comes around.

In olden times some said there were angels in heaven writing down our every deed with golden quills. I don’t know about that. However I do know that engineers understand Truth will not be mocked. When politicians tell them to “reduce costs”, they are quick to point out when cutting costs will lead to disastrous engineering. Not that politicians listen, as we saw when the levees of New Orleans failed to hold back the waters during Hurricane Katrina. (The politicians had spent more money hiring relatives and cronies for “studies” and “legal briefs” than was spent actually strengthening the levees.)

The same is true in terms of social engineering. If you mock Truth, Truth will not be at your side. History shows this, but people have a way of being blind to it. They “have eyes but cannot see.” For whatever reason, they ignore some aspect of Truth, (in some way saying their desire justifies their dishonesty), and that creates a blind-spot in terms of seeing Truth, which makes them blind to the consequences (as history repeats itself), until the day the consequences are “chickens coming home to roost.” It is for this reason Christians were able to ignore the Truth, (which was that they were suppose to turn-the-other-cheek and give-the-shirt-off-their-back), and, for high-sounding reasons (hiding underlying rage and greed), battle for thirty years, causing 9 million fellow Christians to die.

In like manner, though I am no expert on Islam, I am fairly certain Isis has perverted Mohammed’s effort to teach the Truth. (It is hard to convert the Infidel when you slaughter Infidels before they even hear the Truth.) But, because I am outside my area of study, for me to talk of Islam will only expose my ignorance. However I will say one thing, regarding the fact Mohammed apparently said it was “acceptable to lie to an infidel”. I can accept that idea, in cases where the Infidel is in a position of power, a Gestapo able to kill you. In cases where the Infidel is person who is honest and who means well and who wants to have an honest discussion, then to lie is to fail to tell them the Truth that Mohammed wanted you to spread. In fact you might be dangerously close to denying Mohammed, if you lie in such a situation, might you not?

It seems mighty strange to me that people who claim to be strict Atheists can be so like people who claim they worship God. I’ve heard that politics makes strange bedfellows, but the way the Stalinist, Maoist, and Islamic Terrorist work in cahoots is bizarre, for if they succeeded in destroying the “enemy” (which sometimes is me) it seems they would promptly turn on each others throats. But then, I’ll never understand them, for to me Truth is Beauty, and for me the “means” justify the “ends”,  not the other way around.

In conclusion, I’m tired of the so-called Climate Wars because it seems increasingly apparent it involves people who don’t want to be excited about how beautiful the Truth is.  They are engrossed in their “means”, looking forward to walking under a rainbow to an “ends”.  To them beauty is far away, in some distant day, and not here in the Now. To try to talk with such people about the present tense (or even the “history” we have in the present) is an exercise in futility.

In terms of Arctic Sea-Ice there is all sorts of Beauty to see and share, about the variations involved, but they are blind to it, because they have one-track-minds, and are determined to prove a single point: Capitalism (and/or Christianity) is bad, and the proof mankind is bad is that the sea-ice is vanishing, (even when it isn’t).

For example, an enormous ice-breaker from Finland recently went plowing through the Northwest Passage, and set a new record for the “earliest” passage. The media suggested that the fact the passage was so “early” must mean there was less ice due to Global Warming. Was there? Take a look for yourself:

New Arctic The Journey

This does not look like an “Ice Free Pole” to me. Furthermore, it is down near 70° north latitude, not up at the Pole at 90°.  To me it looks like the record was set because Finland built a heck of a fine ice-breaker, (holding the world’s largest sea-going crane and a landing pad for big helicopters), and this fine ship was able to bash through ice six and even nine feet thick. But does the Media praise Finland and give credit where credit is due?

Nooooo.  Instead these bought-and-paid-for, subservient slaves, these cowards, these complete and opposite examples of what a “free press” should be, can only bleat the “means” to an “end” that will never happen. And that leaves it up to obscure characters like myself, in the sunset of my life, to be the “free press”.

So I poked the embers, and got riled up enough to flicker a bit of flame, and wrote the above rave.  But, to be honest, I cannot melt the wax in some ears. The media is beyond help. (It may be suicide to drink the Kool-aid, but they fear it is suicide not to.)

To even imagine I can penetrate the dense ignorance of the politically correct is, I fear, like “throwing pearls to swine.”  They are fiercely loyal to their fallacy…unless they are rats. Soon they will have to make a choice about whether they are rats which desert the ship of fallacy, or the Kool-aid drinkers who go down with their good ship Jones-town.

Me? I don’t have time for that, and I haven’t earned that fate, because I chose Truth. Instead a man of my advanced years should be focused on dangling a grandchild on my knee. It is absurd for me to think I can take on the kings and presidents and billionaires. Who do I think I am? A teenager?

I actually pity the kings and presidents and billionaires, who think they are in control. A whole new generation is rising up, fed up with their lies, and it is the pitiable ones that think they are “in control” who are going to reap the crop of teenagers they have sowed. I fear they will “gnash their teeth and rend their garments.”

Me? I just stand by Truth and see Truth stands by me.  I’m too old for war, and sit back and look at the beauty of clouds (and sea-ice). Increasingly I simply watch the Beauty, and increasingly find it hard to stir the embers and blaze a rave about media ignorance.

Ho hum. So what is new? The media shrieks the Pole is melting. Ho hum. Do they look at the polar temperatures? No? Ho hum. In actual fact Polar temperatures have barely touched normal six times, and have otherwise been below normal 120 straight days.

DMI4 0729 meanT_2017

The media has failed to report this chill at the Pole. Ought I rave about their falsehood? Or should I ignore their ignorance and instead report the Beauty of the Now?

Why should I focus on the falsehood of the ignorant? The media has spilled their milk, let them sleep in it. They have made their own bed, let them cry in it. That’s just the way the cookie bounces.

Me?  I’ll just report the Beauty of the Truth.

My last observations saw the Arctic persistently failing to obey the textbooks, which suggest that the “polar cell” should lead to descending air and high pressure at the Pole.

Polar Cell polar-cell-atmospherecirculation1

Instead of descending air at the Pole we have seen rising air and low pressure, which I have dubbed “Ralph”. When high pressure struggles to form it is displaced over towards Alaska, and I have called it “Byoof” (for Beaufort High).

When I last posted on July 11 Byoof was making one of its better efforts to reform, over towards Bering Strait, as Ralph weakened north of Greenland. Nearly the entire arctic was above freezing (except high altitudes.)

 

 

Ralph wouldn’t quite surrender the Pole, fed by “Pulse #7” coming up from the Atlantic, and a new Pulse #8 oozing north from central Siberia.

 

 

 

(Missed 2 days) Pulse #7 has refueled Ralph by the Pole as Pulse #8 has swung across to the Canadian Archipelago. Pulse #9 is crashing into Greenland, increasing the icecap with snow, when it is suppose to be experiencing midsummer melting.

 

 

Again it looks like Ralph will fade and Byoof will dominate.

 

 

On July 18 Byoof briefly ridges across the Pole, but Pulse #9, oozing over and around both sides of Greenland, allows a somewhat surprising (to me) reformation of Ralph by July 20.

 

 

 

By July 21 we again see Ralph by the Pole, with Byoof a weak high over by Bering Strait. The sheer persistence of this pattern is uncanny. Remember, it is the complete opposite of the textbook concept where a “Polar Cell” leads to sinking air at the Pole. If that concept is incorporated into computer models, then the anomaly Ralph demonstrates may be a reason computer models sometimes are so very wrong. They are based on an circulation-theory which only occurs some of the time.

Ralph also messes up the textbook ideas about the Arctic Oscillations positive and negative states, for that idea states that when a jet stream gets loopy, pressure will be high at the Pole.

Arctic Oscillation 250px-Arctic_Oscillation

However Ralph involves (and even seems fed by) a loopy jet stream, and creates low pressure at the Pole when the textbooks say there should be high pressure.

A major tweak is needed in the ideas of how the planet’s circulation occurs, at least while Ralph is around. Ralph is like the hole in the doughnut of a Polar cell, with feeder bands spiraling in like swirls of chocolate frosting into the hole in the doughnut. (That may not sound very scientific, but if you stuck a gooey doughnut into the computers you might get better long-term forecasts than some of the models have been producing, lately.)

In any case, Ralph is back, on July 21, which is also the peak of warmth in the Arctic Summer. We are passing the end of the narrow window, when the arctic actually receives more heat than it loses.  Though the sun is still up 24 hours a day, it is sinking lower and lower. The are almost no isotherms below freezing on the temperature map for July 21. Watch how they now start to increase.

 

 

(Missed 2 days) In July 21 Ralph has four centers. I was too busy to study what happened properly. I think the original Ralph faded towards Siberia, as Atlantic, Canadian, and Pacific pulses (I suppose they’d be #10, #11, and #12) entered the fray. All the clouds seem to increase the sub-freezing temperatures.

 

(Missed 3 days) I was still busy with other stuff, and though I did glance at maps with my cell phone I was too dead tired after work to save maps. As I recall the low pressure hung about the pole in a weak, flabby and unspectacular manner, hardly worth noting, other than to say it was not high pressure. At this point I started to become interested because sub-freezing temperatures slightly surprised me right at the Pole.

 

(Missed a day) The building of Byoof interested me at this point, as it seemed to be pulling warm air to the Pole to clash with the cold already in place. Such clashes may turn Ralph into an Gustogale. (New vocabulary: An “August Gale” is a “Gustogale”.) (In recent years they have become more common.)

 

 

 

No Gustogale forms, but Byoof can never completely conquer the Pole, and Ralph stubbornly persists towards East Siberia. Also the sub-freezing isotherm is growing more commonplace.

 

 

The final maps are interesting, for Ralph is hinting at becoming a  Gustogale when it isn’t even August yet, and also the sub-freezing isotherms seem excessive for July.

 

Subfreezing temperatures form Gustogales because warm air is nearby, over the tundra, which can get amazingly hot in July, baking under 24 hour sunshine and with all snow melted away. The surface of the permafrost becomes gook, and breeds so many mosquitoes that oil-workers have informed me toilet paper is unnecessary. I think it is these trillions upon trillions of mosquitoes, all beating their tiny wings, that sends the tundra-heated air north to swirl into subfreezing air and create an Gustogale.

Alarmists tend to like Gustogales, as they assume gales hasten the melting of sea-ice. Sometimes this is true, as was the case in 2012. However the Gustogale of 2013 melted hardly any ice. I wondered if the difference was because 2012 cooled the water under the ice, so it could melt less in 2013.  I test of this wondering might happen this August, for we had not one, but two Gustogales last year, which in theory should have cooled the water under the ice, so that a Gustogale this year would not melt much ice. The best test would be to have a Gustogale this year.

We shall see what we shall see, for Truth will reveal what Truth chooses. Stay tuned.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention another cool and unusual thing I’ve been watching. It has to do with the fact O-buoy 14 has suddenly taken off to the south at a (to me) surprising rate of speed. The GPS shows this, though the camera shows a picture that hasn’t changed much.

Obuoy 14 0730 webcam

Even though the camera shows little change, and the camera will not even swing to show nearby coastlines, and the summer has been snowy with wet snow plastering the lens and obscuring the view from time to time, the camera has moved out channel named for William Parry and down into a channel named for a fellow explorer, Leopold McClintock .

McClintock 220px-Sir_(Francis)_Leopold_McClintock_by_Stephen_Pearce_(2)

Oh, what a history I could tell! Some other night. For Alarmists care not for history, and, where Englishmen once put their lives on the line for the discovery of Truth, modern Alarmist don’t dare disobey dogma. Let it suffice for me to say O-buoy 14 has moved from latitude 74° to south of latitude 72°, and from Parry Channel to south into McClintock Channel.

Now, if ice from Parry Channel mover south, one would think Parry Channel would now be ice free. However ice from the north is also being disgorged into Parry Channel from a channel to the north. (I”m not sure of the name of this channel, along the east side of Melville Island, but you can see the ice coming out of it, that wasn’t coming out last year, by comparing NRL maps of the same date. (You can also see ice has been pushed south from the south coast of Melville Island.)  (Last year to left; this year to right.)

 

Three things jump out at me. First, there is a slender barrier of disgorged ice blocking Parry Chanel that did not exist last year. Second, this north to south flow has put a block in the Northwest Passage to the very south, and if the small, non-icebreaker “Northabout” was sailing this year it might not enjoy the success it enjoyed last year. Lastly, of you look to the north, you see a red area of very thick ice is  getting squeezed south from the Arctic Sea into the Canadian Archipelago.

Now, if I looked north to that third area, and was paid to cherry pick, I could write a sensationalist headline: “Ice that was only four feet thick in April is twelve feet thick in July.”

But, as my check from Big Oil for being a Skeptic has been delayed in the mail, I only note the above because it is Truth, and I find Truth fascinating, and well worth singing about.

Even if this north-to-south flow of ice only happens now and again, in the Canadian Archipelago, seeing it happen this one time may explain what happened long ago. (For example, why did Franklin’s two ships, crushed by ice, sink so far apart?)

Even though this revelation means I’m a little less baffled by long-ago events, it means nothing to the so-called experts of socialism, who already have everything figured out and need no advice from new data or Truth.

Stay tuned.

 

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30 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA-ICE –Delaying Tactics–

    • I laughed at how you used the word “professional”. That means they are in it for the money, and working for a boss. This does create a bias, and explains why different “professionals” working for different bosses (and/or nations) display bias in different directions, creating considerable disagreements and differences.

      Your pet graph is based on a certain set of ice-cores, which are used as a proxy, for there are no records from actual thermometers. The problem is that the ice-core from a nearby glacier can give different results. There is a danger of using some results and excluding others.

      I have been noticing the times that the situation suggested by using selected proxies can differ from the historical record. I am not the only one. Overland and Wood, working for NOAA, noted, “While there is an extensive literature on the history of 19th century Arctic exploration, surprisingly little use has been made of the detailed scientific and meteorological observations compiled during the expeditions. There were more than 60 expeditions or scientific enterprises dispatched to different parts of the region in the period after 1818.”

      So Overland and Wood looked at the old logs, and concluded, “…an examination of a combination of historical temperature measurements and physical observations from explorers’ logs reveals that observations of climate indicators, such as the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze, were within the present range of variability for this region.”

      Their paper is easy to read and only four pages long. Not that you have ever done the homework I assign you, Sty.

      file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Owner.CALEBS/My%20Documents/Downloads/61419%20(2).pdf

      (NOTE: Sty says link fails. To read PDF paper search for “EXPLORERS’ LOGS FROM THE 19TH CENTURY PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR VERIFYING PROXY RECORDS” )

    • Who gives a rats ass what or who you (Ed: Sty) trust?
      You also don’t critically examine anything but simply buy all the CAGW foollishness and adjusted data that is spoon fed to your nitwit head.

      • Professional ice services provide sea-ice information for paying customers on ships etc. – therefore their boss is physical reality and the information marketplace. Falsified information would be worse than worthless. The idea that ice services conspire to provide incorrect information is unfounded and frankly half-baked.

        ps. Caleb your link is local to your computer, is this the paper you mean?

        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1973/full

        pps. This is a great source for almost Near Real Time sea ice information (click the sea-ice maps on and off in the left frame). The accompanying SAR imagery can be used to verify the maps (sanity check):

        http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

      • No. That’s a different paper. Google, “EXPLORERS’ LOGS FROM THE 19TH CENTURY. PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR VERIFYING PROXY RECORDS” That is the title of the Wood and Overland paper I referred to.

        Thanks for pointing out the failure of my link.

        I also think it may be a good thing that you now seem to be concentrating on present tense data. In the past you seemed stuck on a particular proxy-based graph that differed from other proxy-based graphs, and also differed from the historical record. Using your graph and only your graph you insisted the “volume” of ice was in a steady decline, ignoring years of low ice in the historical record.

        An interesting bit of trivia included in the above paper is that a sail-powered ship such as the one Parry sailed could be halted by a mere inch of ice, unless there was a strong following wind. That is very different from an icebreaker plowing through six feet of ice. For the explorers to have sailed where they sailed is a clear indication of open waters.

    • http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

      Styrge,

      Please note from above attachment from the US National Ice Center and the US Navy is saying that Arctic sea ice has now jumped well above the average from the last 10 years. The charts are not produced by denialist kooks, they are produced by your very own beloved US Government.

      Even you have to admit that the sea ice has made a remarkable recovery from the subnormal spring maximum!

      This must be an agonizing summer for alarmists, between having a denier as President and the failure of Mother Nature to cooperate with their agenda.

      • That is the problem with having an “agenda”. Robert Burns wrote a poem about it. “The best laid plans of mice and men…”

        If I get too focused on my personal agenda I get all bent out of shape when things go wrong. Because I deal with small children who could care less about my “agenda” (also called “the curriculum”), things go wrong every day or even every hour. I’d go nuts if I stuck to the plan. Instead I have found it is better to be highly flexible. Every moment is a “teachable moment”, if I tune into what the small imps are interested in.

        In like manner I think Truth is always tapping us grown-ups on the shoulder, pointing out glaring mistakes in our “agenda”. We can either get pissed off, or be grateful.

        Not that we shouldn’t stick to our guns with stubbornness. But we should always attempt to side with Truth.

      • This gives a better picture as it shows a longer than 10-year history. 2007 was 10 years ago and then a huge amount of multi-year ice was permanently removed from the ice-pack (and it did not regenerate):

        http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

        The “real” story is told by the sea ice volume of course…extent/area is a proxy for the ice amount. I will not post links to sea ice volume time-series as they have triggered denial-attacks in the past.

      • I am sorry you see my efforts to remove the scales from your eyes as being “denial attacks”. But it can be frustrating dealing with you.

        That is a decent link, and we all know of it and use it, though NSIDC is not above criticism, especially as you go back in time, and especially because they begin their record in 1979.

        Here is a picture from the Nimbus Satellite, dating from September 9, 1969. Notice the huge “hole” of open water up toward the Pole from Alaska. Does bringing up such evidence make me a “denialist”?

  1. I spoke to an engineer, who has recently inspect the levy system around New Orleans. He said they are still as vulnerable now as they were at the time of Katrina.

    • I have the sense they want New Orleans destroyed. I wish they would just come out and be honest about it. If they would just say they think New Orleans isn’t worth the investment, the people of New Orleans could disagree and seek a means of saving their city. Instead the people get the false sense the federal government is spending millions to save their city.

      Holland saved their land from the fact it was sinking below sea level. New Orleans could do the same. However perhaps heartless and cynical people think there is more to be “gained” from a disaster in the news.

      It is cynical enough to say, “Never allow a disaster go to waste.” It is worse if you cause the disaster intentionally.

      To think the suffering of others is “gain” is bad spiritual engineering, in my opinion, and the people involved are planting a crop of thistles they (or their children) must someday reap.

  2. Thank you for reminding me of the old Nimbus data! Here’s a free link to the reconstruction-article:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/W_Meier/publication/258816140_New_estimates_of_Arctic_and_Antarctic_sea_ice_extent_during_September_1964_from_recovered_Nimbus_I_satellite_imagery/links/53d2c55d0cf228d363e95a48.pdf

    (Spoiler: the reconstructed September sea-ice extent in 1964 is about 7E6 km2 = ~100% more than the 2012 September minimum of about 3.5E6 km2.)

      • So you suggest it’s a conspiracy and/or falsified results? Well that’s convenient, and also a textbook case of “denialism”. But no worries, you can redeem yourself by posting a Nimbus sea ice publication from any other source for “balance”. But do such publications actually exist, or are we talking about imaginary studies again? I’m trying to keep an open mind and give you the benefit of the doubt, even if it’s sometimes hard. Cheers!

      • Oh dear me, Sty! What a ungrateful comment to come home to, after a long, hot, humid and hard day of work!

        First of all, I only suggested you look at who compiled the results, and at who paid them for compiling the results. Did you look? If you saw “conspiracy and/or falsified results”, that is your conclusion.

        I have no idea of your age or even what sex you are. But I have learned to approach you with caution.

        Back when my daughters were in their early teens, I learned it was unwise to “tell” them a truth. It was far better to suggest they go look for themselves, in a certain direction. Then they would eventually come and indignantly tell me what they had “discovered” on their own, which they never would have listened to if just “told” them.

        In like manner, I “tell” you less and less, and instead suggest you look in certain directions, and “discover” for yourself.

        Unfortunately, Sty, you apparently lack the wits of even a teen-aged girl. You are utterly smitten by the “appeal to authority”, to a degree surpassing even that of a hormone-flushed girl, drunk with the infatuation of a full-blown crush. (Even a hopeless romantic eventually wakes up to the fact that supposed “puppy love” is actually a raging case of rabies latched onto their ankle and drawing blood.)

        For crying out loud, Sty! Quit all this blather about “publications” and just look at the single Nimbus picture from September 9, 1969. You have honest eyes. Use them.

        You do have eyes, don’t you? They do see, don’t they? Can’t you see that, north of Bering Strait, the sea-ice was melted back to where it was last summer, way back in 1969? And there was even an enormous “hole” to the north, where there was still ice last summer?

        Yet you, with your appeal to authority, tell me there was twice as much ice back then?

        Where?

        I can see there was more broken ice down near Barrow, but it surely doesn’t add up to “twice as much.”

        With so little ice on the Pacific side, then, in order for there to be “twice as much” ice, then, on the Atlantic side, the sea-ice must have bulged down to, at the very least, the north coast of Iceland (if not Scotland and Norway.)

        Can’t you see this? Can’t you use your own eyes?

        Or do you have such a crush on “authority” that you make a fourteen-year-old girl look pragmatic?

        If so, I still have hope. For my daughters grew up to be wonderful women. Perhaps you too will grow up and become wonderful.

      • Meirer is a notorious NOAA alarmist fake scientist, courtesy of the same people who have been caught red handed making large warm biased “adjustments” (a.k.a cheating) to the temperature record. Does so in order to give a false impression of serious warming when nothing of the sort is happening. That is not a conspiracy theory, that is a fact.

        A simple equation for Styrge: No Warming=No Crisis=No Funding. I think even he can comprehend that very simple math.

    • Pretty sick, sty. 2012 had a massive storm which reduced measurable sea ice. But it turned out to be broken and stirred, with a quick regrouping and regrowth following. You know so little, not even the fact that the life of all arctic sea ice is short-lived and continually replaced. Just does not suit your agenda, any more than the proven cyclic nature of the governing weather patterns does.

      • Brett you should be aware that the age of the Arctic sea ice has been getting drastically younger and that 2007 killed a lot of old MYI:

      • MYI increased to a peak around 1979, and has decreased since then. Prior to 1979 MYI was increasing from lower amounts. It is these “lower amounts” Sty steadfastly refuse to see.

      • Correct re the sun and it sure has been gloomy and overcast. I think the only sun I saw was the midnight sun about 4 or 5 days ago when I was up late and took a quick look before turning in.
        If it does tip over I’m not cleaning it up!!
        Calgary has done of the classic flips from too hot to what feels like cold but is only so because of the body adjusting to the heat. This boy is already pining for the snow and to get back skiing but there are 4 months to go until my hill opens.

  3. Yes at last some RN Admiralty records etc.. I’ve bookmarked it to study at leisure….

    We have the possibility of widespread livestock feed shortages over NZ in about 3 weeks – caused by the Quiet sun. Meridional alternately wet and cold weather, over several months of autumn/winter. We have been alerted, so measures are starting to be taken re getting livestock numbers down. But warm dry sunny weather is unlikely, so hopefully feedstuffs like palm oil kernel extract can be shipped in as a standby..

    • Hopefully “getting livestock numbers down” means I can get to afford some delicious New Zealand mutton. (Which will be sold as “lamb” here. An ewe could be fifty years old, and would still be called “lamb” in North America.)

      Hopefully your pragmatic farmers will find ways around the rules and regulations imposed by do-gooder idealists, who don’t seem to see the starvation they are legislating.

  4. Pingback: Watch “Arctic Is Screaming! – Telling Scientists To Shut Up” | WeatherAction News

  5. In my role as moderator, I deleted three more comments from Sty today, after swiftly glancing them over. I know this seems harsh to some, but each comment demanded a reply, and I simply don’t have the time.

    Basically Sty believes there was much more ice in the past, and the current low levels represent an “unprecedented” anomaly. Like many, when the sea-ice “extent” graphs failed to live up to expectations, he shifted over to the “volume” graphs, which involve extreme difficulty and fairly enormous error bars. Sty has great faith in certain authority figures (AKA the-usual-suspects). He arrived at this site full of zeal, and brimming with the urge to educate me from the error-of-my-ways.

    In actual fact he is the one being educated, though he does not like to admit it. When he first arrived at this site it was quite obvious he hadn’t looked as deeply into the past as many who visit this site have done. Now he pretends he is an old expert in subjects we taught him about, and says things such as, “Thank you for reminding me of the old Nimbus data”, as if he had a clue about such things before we took pains to teach him. When Sty says “thanks” Sty is still preserving a position on some odd sort of egocentric “high ground.”

    Rather than taking offence over the fact Sty is never as genuinely thankful as a disciple ought be, when he has the good fortune to have many gurus, I think we should see Sty has made progress. The very fact he is even considering “old Nimbus data” indicates all our patient, and not-so-patient,and down-right exasperated, efforts have not been totally in vain.

    I think Sty is about half of the way to the point where “Dawn Breaks over Marblehead”. We should not lose faith that he will eventually arrive at the point when the light-bulb turns on in the cartoon balloon above his head, and he becomes a Skeptic.

    I’m sure some may think I am “throwing my pearls to swine” and that Sty is a lost cause, but he is diligent, in his way, and even though he seems unaware of the caution we all take to avoid the dreaded bugaboo “bias”, and even though he is in the clutches of his own bias, the fact he went so far as to touch the old Nimbus satellite pictures with a ten foot pole gives me hope. After all, the worst Alarmists pretend the Nimbus pictures don’t even exist.

    Most of the links he shares are the old tired ones, from the-usual-suspects, but he is seeking, and comes up with a few things that interest me. In the three posts I deleted he included one link that caught my eye, for even though Sty seemed to think it affirmed his bias, it showed me we are wearing him down, and he is considering things which, (if you look back to his first comments), were originally outside the scope of his vision.

    The link that fascinated me was about a slow-growing algae that leaves layers of calcium as it grows, and by scientifically measuring these layers ( a bit like tree rings or the layers of a stalactite), one has a proxy of past conditions, (maybe).

    The line that Sty apparently felt was going to educate me to the validity of his bias was this,

    “The algae show that, while fast short-term changes have occurred in the past, the 20th century exhibited the lowest sea-ice cover in the past 646 years.”

    Even though Sty may have felt he (or she) was proving a point, the above statement contains three major concessions from the stance Sty initially took, when Sty first visited this blog.

    1.) The time period, 646 years, takes us back to the end of the Medieval Warm Period, but not further back into that time. When Sty first visited he seemed unwilling to even allow the possibility there was less ice in the Medieval Warm Period.

    2.) The phrase, “while short term changes have occurred in the past”, is a statement Sty initially couldn’t abide. When we tried to tell him of years with low ice, he wouldn’t hear of it.

    3.) The words “the 20th century” relegates the study to a time when the sun was at its most energetic, perhaps more energetic than it had been in for as much as a millennium. It says nothing of the 21st century, where we are now facing a “Quiet Sun”.

    In other words, statements are passing through Sty’s lips which he formally could not utter. Sty is changed. Sty is slightly older, slightly wiser. We are wearing him down.

    So why did I snip Sty’s proof that Sty is growing? Because this is my blog, and I get the final word here. I want to dictate our focus, and I want it to be on the 21st century. If Sty wants to have the final word, Sty has only to start his own blog. Then let Sty see how much attention Sty gets. I doubt I’ll visit. Sty’ll get the smug satisfaction of getting the final word, but Sty will likely lack the gurus of this site.

    I can only conclude Sty visits this site because Sty likes the crusty old grouches that abide here. If so, he will have to understand this:

    Schools have places called “a teacher’s lounge” where the givers can get away from the takers. Teachers need time away from the demands of the ignorant. If a child butted into such a sanctuary, they would be gently shown the door.

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