Ocean Cooling Resumes

Another valuable shared-observation from Ron Clutz. At his site I commented:

My guess is that the “Quiet Sun” is starting to show its effect. I also guess that the cooling effect was not immediate, as less energy from the sun might have slowed the east to west winds at the equator. This in turn would reduce the cold upwelling along equatorial west coasts, resulting in milder SST. In other words, though it may seem counter intuitive, less energy would temporarily result in milder temperatures. However the milder temperatures are indicative of the seas giving up heat due to a “Quiet Sun”, rather than sucking up heat due to a “Noisy Sun”.

The effect of weaker east to west winds would be a stronger than expected El Nino, which we saw in 2015, and a weaker than expected La Nina, which we just saw. Despite these fluctuations the general trend is that the seas are losing the stored heat. Or that is my guess.

Science Matters

May Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now available, and we can see ocean cooling resuming after a short pause from the downward trajectory during the previous 12 months.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows the last two years of SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 including May 2017.

After an upward bump in April 2017 due to the Tropics and NH, the May SSTs show the average declining slightly.  Note the Tropics recorded a rise, but not enough to offset declines in both hemispheres and globally.  SH is now two months into a cooling phase. The present readings compare closely with April 2015, but currently with no indication of an El Nino event any time soon.

Note that higher temps in 2015 and…

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10 thoughts on “Ocean Cooling Resumes

      • You have a lot of nerve, assigning me homework, when you merely scoff at the historical references it was your homework to study. If you want to have a coherent conversation at this site you need to understand what is being discussed. Instead you only trot out links to “esteemed sources”, who tend to grossly oversimplify.

        In fact as soon as you use the word “esteemed” I have a tendency to laugh, because half of the time your sources are basically taking a hopelessly complex system and attempting to make-believe it is as simple as shooting pool. Even a single variable has a nasty tendency of involving Strange Attractors and Chaos Theory. Once you start mixing together ten or twenty variables the likelihood of a petty mortal mind comprehending the utter majesty of the system is nil.

        What you call “my hypothesis” about the Quiet Sun is just me wondering aloud. Don’t mix me up with asinine Climate Scientists who profess certainty. I will be highly offended.

        If you had read my posts, let alone done the homework I assigned, you’d know the Dalton Minimum started in 1798 and little happened the first ten years. In fact some suggest that proves a Quiet Sun has no effect. But the effect may have been cumulative, for the second ten years saw the action, which I have described to you before and don’t need to do again. The current “quiet” began with the deep minimum which began the weak cycle 24 we are currently completing. In other words, ten years ago.

        I have pretty much given up on showing you events from the past. They make no impression on your truculently obtuse psyche. I think you need to see your very manner of looking at climate and humanity (two of the most difficult things to predict) is way too simple. Perhaps a light might go off in your head if you thought about the problems presented by “reductionism” in climate science. Here is a good place to start:


      • Shooting pool simple? If you believe that, I guess you have never seen me play.

        Caleb, are your familiar with Professor Willlet from the old days at MIT? He used to make some remarkable long predictions, for example he predicted the extreme cold of the 1970’s years ahead of time and also the subsequent moderation toward the end of the 20th Century. I believe he used sunspots cycles to make his predictions.

      • No, I’ll have to look him up.

        I think there are some long term cycles that one can use, but even then you need to qualify, qualify. qualify. You begin lots of statements with “Providing that…” For example, if I could hit the rewind button, in 1990 I would have prefaced my predictions (based on the 60-year-cycle) with, “Providing that the sun doesn’t go quiet, we shall see…” But back then I never even considered a Quiet Sun.

  1. Caleb,
    You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink.

    I enjoy reading your musings, because you are thinking out loud and you express those thoughtas in an interesting and entertaining way.

    I have long been puzzled by the number of what you’d expect to be well educated intelligent people capable of rational thinking who seem to think the optimum global climate occurred about 150 years ago, just at the end 0f the LIA. “We have to reverse Climate Change/Global Warming” seems to be the most common statement from the great and the good. To me reverse means to go backwards, not simply stop where we are. I’m quite happy with a continued move out of the LIA towards a Roman/Minoan Climate Optimum, and not knowing what snow is has a certain appeal.

    The UK is having a bit of a heat wave at the moment, well Southern half of England and Wales is. With the hottest June temperatures since 1976, a famous long hot summer. My reaction was that’s a lot of cool Junes, rather than we’re all doomed.

    I look forward to hearing Ralph’s progress, it’s been fascinating so far.

    • Was 1976 the year that killed so many hedgerows? I recollect my mother, who adored England and was always annoying me by saying it was superior to the USA, bragged how England didn’t suffer America’s “awful summer heat”. Then she chose to visit that summer. It would have been rude of me to laugh, so I bit my lip.

      At the moment it doesn’t look like Ralph will blow up and get as big as they formerly thought, but he is forecast to stubbornly stick around the Pole for the next ten days, last time I checked. The only way that can speed the melt is if it rains, which can happen up there in the middle of the summer.

  2. The first mention of the current quietening of the sun I can remember, came from Piers Corbyn. He is an astrophysicist of brilliance, and has the appropriate scientific nous. His ideas, now refined to predict weather ‘events’ and the wild jet stream effects of extremes, are being borne out by what has happened. The previous mentions came around 1964 with the IYQS(?), a less pronounced and prolonged cyclic effect. So, we can now understand something of how the LIA/Dalton/Sporer/Maunder minima came to be. This version is not expected to be pleasant but if we use modern agricultural science and our full technology/fuel resources, humanity can breeze through it almost. But if the warmista idiots should win, we all lose big time and with huge death tolls…..

    • I agree entirely. We should be preparing for possible cold, not fearing beneficial warmth.

      I appreciate the fact you are always researching past studies. The media is failing to do its job of fact checking. People are so busy “virtue signalling” that they fail to display the virtue of double checking. “Trust but verify.”

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