ARCTIC SEA ICE –Ralph’s Resurgent Surge–(with second Yowza Update: [Sahara and Saudi Snowfalls!!!]) (Plus Christmas Eve Greeting)

If you are new to watching the Arctic and its sea-ice, you have missed a lot, and it will be difficult for you to catch you up with the news. Basically we seem to be seeing an “unprecedented”, “unheard-of” pattern, which isn’t saying much, for we don’t have very good ears, and don’t hear very far into the past. Most records don’t even begin until 1979, when I was 26 years old. This makes me 26 years older than the earliest records. It also makes me older and wiser than the records. Which is likely why you turned to me, rather than that young, whippersnapper stuff called “factual data”.

There is of course data from before 1979, but it has been largely ignored. In fact I think it is politically incorrect these days to even admit there was such a thing as the “Medieval Warm Period”. You may even be called “Fake News” if you confess things were recorded before 1979, or at the very least your recollections will need to “adjusted” in order to conform with the Party Platform.

But apparently you are sick of that Party Platform hogwash. Otherwise you would not be searching the web for obscure sites like this one, where people could care less about the Party Platform and Political Correctness, because they are interested in a wonderful, powerful thing called “Truth.”

The Truth is that the Party Platform insisted sea-ice was suppose to melt away unless we all underwent a dramatic sacrificing of our freedoms and prosperity. In fact, unless you bought curly light bulbs (which didn’t work in the sub-zero weather we had here yesterday) the entire planet might boil. Unless we switched from reliable fossil fuels to unreliable sunshine and fickle winds, oceans might engulf our cities. And we had to buy into this deal by various dates or the advertised offer would expire. But we didn’t buy in. So they extended the offer.

They based their fear-mongering on a gas so scarce in our atmosphere you can’t even find it, unless you are a plant. As an old Yankee attempting to function as a hardscrabble farmer, I have to heed plants, which politicians will ignore (until plants get the vote).

Plants in my garden get to work as soon as the sunlight touches their leaves at dawn, when, (because my organic garden includes lots of humus and manure holding fungus that produces CO2), my garden’s air may have 10 molecules of CO2 for every 10,000 molecules of total air. By noon my greedy plants will have gobbled all that CO2, and there will be only 2 or less molecules per 10,000 left, at which point my plants quit. They cannot resume growing until CO2 levels again rise, due to fungus which works best in the sunless dark. However, if you stay indoors, your home may have 100 molecules of CO2 in every 10,000 of air, because you are expiring CO2. (Houseplants have it better than plants in my garden during the summer afternoons, and greenhouses pump even higher amounts of CO2 into their air, the the crews of submarines breathe even greater amounts of CO2, without harm).

When the planet warms, the warmed oceans are able to hold less dissolved CO2, and release it to the atmosphere. Because our planet is recovering from the chill of the Little Ice Age, (which chilled the oceans and allowed the seas to absorb more CO2) our oceans are expiring more CO2. Much of the current increase in CO2 is because the ocean is warming because the planet is warming in a completely natural way. All 7 billion of us mortals, expiring CO2 and burning dung fires and herding cows that belch and fart CO2 and Methane, can’t come close to what the awesome oceans fart and belch. Oh, we mortals like to think we are so grand and so important, but our contribution to the CO2 content of the air is less than 1 molecule per 10,000.

This leads me to wonder: Which should we be worried about? One molecule in 10,000, or the temperament of a nearby star, without which our entire planet would swiftly die?

Our sun is going through a change in mood. Were it not for whippersnappers bleating about curly light bulbs and trace gases and political correctness, our moody sun would be making headlines. Our sun governs our crops, our weather, and one can see why the ancient Egyptians made a whole religion out of respecting that aspect of God’s creation, an archangel they dubbed “Ra.” Those bygone Egyptians must be rolling in their pyramids, because we think it is politically correct to completely ignore the sun, and instead worship our own exhalations, burps and farts.

But the fact of the matter is that our “Noisy Sun”, boisterous and freckled with sunspots, has become calm, and become a “Quiet Sun”, with its face as spotless and fair as a young maiden’s.


In their attempts to promote a trace gas as an archangel we ought worship, the politically correct have desperately attempted to downplay the influence of the most obvious influence. In fact some will claim the above sun is not in fact “spotless”, for it has a small speck on it’s face. (Can you find it?)

The fact of the matter is the sun has the greatest effect on our planet of all things, except for the Creator Himself. If one insists upon worshiping a false god, it should not be money or fame or success or sex, and especially not the the absurdity of one molecule among 10,000, but rather the sun. If one insists upon being a heathen, one ought worship Ra.

In actual fact, one reason the ancient Egyptians may have been so concerned about the sun is because they were able to see a change in the number of sunspots with their naked eyes. Apparently sunspots can be so large that, at sunset, they can be seen on the face of the setting sun by those with sharpest vision, and such events are recorded in ancient texts from China. The sky-oriented priests of Egypt would have noticed when such sunspots vanished, especially if it was immediately followed by a dramatic change in local weather. And just such a dramatic change did occur, as is seen by modern geologists who study the layers of sediment in the bottom of Egyptian Lakes.  What modern geologists have learned is that the lakes abruptly became dry, and lush pastures abruptly became this place we now call “the Sahara Desert”.  (Huge numbers of drought-impoverished refugees may have supplied the labor-surplus that built the first pyramids, just as Dust Bowl “Okies” supplied much of the labor that built California.)

As much as we may mock those forgotten mortals, they were more scientific than we are. How can I say such a thing? Because our scientists do not notice when the sun changes its face. All they care about is funding. All they care about is the faces of politicians.

The switch from a president I will not name to Donald Trump changes the face such scientists face, and such scientists are deeply concerned about their funding. After all, many are fathers and mothers with young ones to feed. For them, money matters. Truth, as they define it, is whatever pays. In some ways their attitude towards the beauty of Truth does not differ from a whore’s attitude towards the beauty of Love.

I am different, because I’m an old curmudgeon, and no one will pay me for Love or Truth. I just say what I see, and am amazed how often what is blatantly obvious gets me yelled at, either called “politically incorrect”, or this new slur,  “a dispenser of Fake News”.

In any case, if you are new to the subject of Arctic Sea-ice, the Quiet Sun is causing a sort of atmospheric earthquake. The CO2 Alarmists are attempting to say the Quiet Sun is not the cause, and a single molecule among 10,000 is the cause. You decide. My view is that the sun is the culprit. The complexity of all the repercussions the sun causes, when it changes its mood, is beyond human understanding, but my best effort to explain it all to laymen is as follows:

“I think our ability to grasp all the inputs into the chaotic system we call “weather” is small. The Creator made a creation that is wonderfully subtle and complex. However I greatly enjoy attempting to link together the cause-and-effects, as if the system was some sort of Rube Goldberg contraption.

My own take is that the “Quiet Sun” supplied less energy, and less energy resulted in weaker winds, and weaker Trade Winds stimulated the El Nino, which resulted in more heat at the surface of the sea at the equator. Now, how’s that for double-speak? “Less energy creates more energy (heat at the equator).”

Once you have extra energy down at the equator the planet wants to balance things out, so you get a jet rushing up to the Pole, where the mild air loses its heat, often forming a low pressure spiraling heat up to the tropopause, (this low pressure is what my whimsy has dubbed “Ralph”.) Because the general background is colder due to the “Quiet Sun,” the contrast between the warm equator and the colder background is larger, so the jet is stronger, bringing more mild air to the Pole. Resultant double-speak? “Colder sunshine makes a warmer Pole.”

Once you have the mildness bumping up into polar air, the polar air gets nudged down into Siberia, causing the early and extensive snowpack to form. Resultant double-speak? “Warmer Pole makes colder subtropics.””

The only reason I need to even mention “double-speak” is because politics has invaded the hallways of science, and has polluted what is pristine. There is no contradiction in what is occurring. It is completely natural:

“The current pattern is an effective way to lose heat and balance things out, for heat is lost in two ways, by radiation in the sub-arctic air that is transported north to the Pole, and by reflection due to the high albedo of fresh snow extending further south. “

In other words, what we are seeing occur is dramatic, but what we should expect to see when the “Noisy Sun”  becomes a “Quiet Sun.” An objective and calm scientist would make no big deal of such drama, just as it is no big deal when summer’s beneficent warmth gives way to cruel winter blasts.

Is there drama involved when winter gives way to summer? You bet there is, on my farm at least. But it is natural. In like manner there is drama involved in other natural cycles. Currently these cycles all seem headed for “cold”. In the North Pacific the PDO seems likely to flip radically from “Warm Blob” to “cold”, and in the Atlantic the AMO seems likely to be falling from its thirty year “warm” peak towards “cold”. When you add the chill of the “Quiet Sun” to all this, you see a lot of “cold” in the way of “Global Warming.” This is all normal and natural, and has little to do with politics.

But this is very bad news to the political priests of Global Warming, who insist we control the weather, and that if we sacrifice virgins the planet will be saved. Things are happening completely outside their control, and more importantly outside their expectations. They thought they had everything figured out, and now look like bozos. For crying out loud, even in the sun-baked deserts of Saudi Arabia snow was falling in November, and the passes between Syria and Lebanon were blocked by snow at the start of December. Talk about your “Damascus Moment!” Here is a view from Damascus suburbs, when winter hasn’t officially started yet:


This sort of bad news makes the people who are most dedicated to political ideology and the false god of Global Warming desperate to find evidence warming is happening. Therefore they look far and wide for evidence of warming.

Allow me to help them. Most places have kept records for less than a hundred years. Even with temperatures level (and no Global Warming) there is a better than a one-in-a-hundredth chance that the temperature in any place on a particular date will happen to be the warmest seen for that date. So where should we go? Let’s go to Santiago Chile, which, (after, I’ve been told, “late snowfalls in the Andes and a very cold spring”),  they hit a record 37°C a couple days ago.

Is that helpful? To me it is no big deal. But then, my income is not dependent on perpetuating a lie. (I cringe when I use the word “lie”, for I know some sweet young school teachers who teach the Global Warming lie only because they trust their lying superiors and lying textbooks.)

The political priests of Global Warming are facing a bad situation. Their congregations may rise in fury, unless they they can find proof they are not full of bull….bull…baloney.

It likely won’t be the first time this has happened. There is evidence that at the end of the Anasazi civilization, in the American Southwest, a crisis occurred which involved an uprising of farmers, who were so outraged by the botched forecasts of their priests (Climate Scientists), that the farmers burned down holy places (Kivas) that had stood for hundred of years.

Twenty years ago politicians were doling out such fortunes that the fat was dribbling down the jowls of so-called Climate Scientists, but now they are being asked to account for what they pontificated back then, and they are wearing dangerous shoes. There was good money in saying what they said, but now the money may vanish, as their patrons were voted out of office by an outraged public. Now they must stand by what they said, with no money involved, or else confess their sins.

There is pathos in their predicament, but they have made their own bed and must sleep in it. They don’t have to stand by a lie. In my neck of the woods many workers have on numerous occasions told their bosses to, “Take this job and shove it.” Consequently they may have been poorer monetarily, and at times may have had to clean latrines, but they stood by the Truth, and upheld the dignity of decency. Now it is time for Climate Scientists to do the same. Somehow I feel most of them lack the gumption. Why? Because if they were that decent they never would have agreed to be the liars they have been.

In any case they are confronted by the fact they must defend themselves, with no money involved, and such stress will likely make them mad. Expect no science. Expect only the defiant self-defense of antipathy, concerning a subject which ought be all rainbows and sky-blue-pink clouds; IE: The weather.

I wish we could just be divorced from these people.  Most Climate Scientists are like people who vowed to be married to a mate, but were married to heroin, and betrayed their mate. In the case of Climate Scientists, their drug was not heroin, but political fluff and humbug. In some cases it involved substantial amounts of money and power, and in others it merely involved front-page meaningless hit-parade status, or perhaps merely keeping a job by being a rump-swab. They betrayed Truth for their cheap high. Nothing they did has anything to do with the simple thing that interests you and I; IE: The weather.

Even when a livelihood is dishonest, people will fight like cornered rats to keep it, resorting to shameful behavior. We may see some of such behavior during these trying times, and even if you reach out to such people, in pity, you may get your hand bitten.  Rats behave like rats. I am expecting this political frenzy to produce a peak of propaganda, demonstrating for once and for all the distinction between True Science, and the pollution of politics.

Let us shake free of that nonsense, and just attend to the beauty of weather. Why? Because most names you can connect with “Climate Science” fail to see weather is beautiful.

Therefore they have failed the Creator, who has blessed us with a creation full of majesty and beauty, with His fingerprints visible in every breeze, but unseen by those who cannot see the wind.

When I last posted, a flow from the Pacific had refueled the low pressure “Ralph” at the Pole, so I dubbed him Hula-Ralph. However Hula-Ralph was the author of his own demise, building high pressure in his wake and creating a cross-polar-flow that effectively cut him off from Pacific air. Ralph then turned to the Atlantic, and a remarkable surge is starting to develop, much like the one we witnessed three weeks ago. It remains to be seen if temperatures will spike as high.

You can see the Atlantic low came up through Fram Strait and created “Ralph’s “signature” hook of mild temperature at the Pole.A second low follows up the east coast of Greenland, bringing a thaw north to Svalbard.

However this second low is to some degree diverted, in a weakened state, along the more normal North Atlantic Path to Norway. Meanwhile a huge Pacific Aleutian Low is bumped further north than usual into Bering Strait.

Now a third low is coming up through Fram Strait and Svalbard is above freezing. Mild air has pushed through Bering Strait, but doesn’t seem likely to penetrate to the Pole.

Some models have been suggesting Ralph gets very large at the Pole, but so far he has remained modest. The GFS model goes so far as suggesting in three days the third low will move to the Pole and be a sub-960 mb gale. (Maps by Dr. Ryan Maue, from the Weatherbell site.)


What seems the biggest change is that North America has been cut off from the cross-polar-flow. (To continue its current cold North America will either have to get moderated Siberian air from a trans-Pacific flow, or use its own Canadian tundra and taiga to grow its own arctic highs.)

North America  is cut off because a flow of mild air is roaring east along the Siberian coast, showing a lot of white heat in the anomaly-maps three days from now. It reaches to the Pacific. However also notice that as these west winds warm Scandinavia, (as we  saw three weeks ago), a sort of backwash of very cold air is east winds moving west, further south, (as we also saw three weeks ago.)  Southern Eutope will shiver, and Saudi Arabia may get more snow.


In five days, (if we can trust the model), the surge is amazing, and Ralph is in complete control of the Pole, from the Atlantic to the Pacific.


What impresses me most is the fetch of west winds from Atlantic to Pacific along the coast of Siberia. The enormity of such a fetch is difficult to imagine, because few really understand the enormity of Russia’s arctic.

Russia’s coastline along the Arctic stretches almost 40,000 kilometers (including the coastlines of the northern islands). This translates to 24,854 miles.  (To drive coast-to-coast in the USA, Los Angeles to New York City, is less than 4000 miles.)  The Russian Arctic coast drains a watershed of 13 million square kilometers, equal to about three-quarters of the total land area of Russia and an area larger than any country on earth save Russia itself. (We are not talking Luxembourg, here.)

The temperature anomaly map shows we are taking a massive amount of Atlantic mildness to the coldest part of the planet during the darkest days of the year. The air will not get warmer. In fact, besides losing heat it brings north to the night skies, it will lose freed-up latent heat as large amounts of Atlantic moisture condense to clouds and precipitate as snow.


In some ways this surge resembles the surge that occurred last Christmas, which ended the year 2015 with a grand spike in the temperatures-north-of-80°-latitude graph.


This year rising to such levels would not be as impressive, for we are already nearly up at those levels. (The graph shows a slight dip, as the mildness from Hula-Ralph cools, but a lot of the extreme cold is south of 80° north latitude, and therefore does not show on this graph.)


In some ways what this graph shows is how much heat our planet is squandering to the darkness of outer space. A measure might be made of the area of white between the red line and the green line, and, by comparing last year to this year, it can be seen that this year we are squandering a lot more.

I could see a good argument being made by Alarmists that the sea-ice is made thinner by such mild air shifted north, and the planet will have to expend less heat next summer to melt thinner ice. I would welcome such debate. I’d wonder about the cooling of the water under the ice, as so much was exposed to bitter winds this autumn, and would point out most melting comes from beneath. I’d wonder how much the degree the seawater was cooled this autumn could influence the melt next summer. I’d also say that besides melting ice, the summer sun must melt the snow on top of the ice, and more Atlantic moisture shifted north likely would mean deeper snow. Any decent Alarmist would then point out deep snow acts as insulation, and deeper snow might retard the thickening of the ice. Such debate would be healthy, and in the interests of science.

However I will bet you a nickle we see none of that, in the ludicrous Main Stream Media. I expect pure sensationalism and propaganda. If last Christmas is anything to go by, the surge will be presented as all-warming-all-the-time, with nothing I have said about cooling touched with a ten foot pole, and they will also throw in some ridiculously maudlin stuff about Santa Claus drowning because the North Pole is melting (even though ice is increasing up there, as it always does in December). They likely will include a picture of Mrs. Claus and Rudolph weeping, just to terrorize the children and spoil their Christmases.

I see your nickle, and raise you a dime.

For the record, here is the graph of ice extent, so you see ice is increasing.


In actual fact, the graph does show the last “surge” did produce a short-term down-spike, when the edge of the ice in Barents Sea and Kara Sea was pushed north by the strong south winds. We might see that again, but it will be a brief interlude in the usual rise.

What the graph does not show is deeper and more extensive snow-cover south of the Arctic Sea, which seems to occur when the polar air is bumped south of the Pole by these invasions of Atlantic (and sometimes Pacific) air. In terms of Sea-ice, the displacement of polar air south shows up primarily in the Sea of Okhotsk on the Pacific coast of Siberia (and also in cooler north Pacific SST.) Also Hudson Bay is now swiftly freezing over.


The NRL “thickness map” will be interesting to watch as winter starts, to see if the incursions of milder air keep the ice thinner. The interesting thing about the current thickness map (to me) is the fact the the thick ice along the shores of the Laptev Sea was pushed off-shore by the bitter blasts of the cross-polar-flow. A Polynya of open water formed, and rapidly skimmed over with baby ice, but not without cooling of the coastal waters.

Waters north of Bering Strait seem to be freezing over despite the Aleutian gale bringing mild winds howling north.


There will be two things to watch for in coming weeks. First is the wonder and beauty of creation as the Creator made it. Second will be the amazing immaturity (I would call it “adolescent”, but it seems more immature than that) seen in the behavior of the politically-minded.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE  –Ralph Rocks–

This likely deserves a separate post, but I am so busy with Christmas stuff that I’ll just attach it here.

Ralph is causing a bit of a ruckus up at the Pole, which is good, for if we are going to have a ruckus it is good to have it up where no one lives, and no one gets hurt, especially at Christmas.

The DMI maps do a fine job of simplifying, and showing the basics of what is going on:

In case you are too lazy to scroll back up, our last maps showed Ralph weak over the Pole, and the ruckus down at the southern tip of Greenland, with another ruckus south of Bering Strait. The Pole looked calm, and incapable of mischief.


What was most interesting on the following day [December 18th] was seen in the temperature maps. Not only does the triangular “feeder band” poke north from the Atlantic side, but one pokes north from the Pacific side. This is just asking for trouble. Mix mild air with frigid air, and you are mixing gasoline with a match, (irrespective of stuff over my head, such as upper air maps). However the pressure maps only show the initial Ralph drift towards the Pacific side weakening, as a replacement drifts to the Pole from Svalbard, only strengthening a itty bitty bit.

Yesterday, [December 19], we saw the Replacement-Ralph failed to weaken (as they usually do), but instead grow stronger. Also a Re-replacement Ralph (via what I call “morphistication”) formed off the east coast of Greenland.  The temperature maps showed a wonderful mixing of gasoline and matches, as both Atlantic and Pacific “feeder bands” swirl at the Pole.

Today [December 20] we see the Replacement Ralph passing its peak and beginning to weaken, but the Re-replacement Ralph exploding over Svalbard and heading north to the Pole, and also the Re-re-replacement Ralph entering the picture from south of Greenland and clobbering Iceland. As there are actual people on Svalbard and Iceland, I pause to pray for their safety, for this is no longer an esoteric discussion of uninhabited places. However it is beyond doubt the current ruckus is well north of the usual storm track, and allows a Ralphist like myself to climb up on his soap box and preach Ralphism.

First, I should point out that, if a gale like the sub-960 mb Re-replacement Ralph appeared over the Pole in the summer, Alarmists would be tooting their horns and throwing confetti, because they would figure it was speeding the sea-ice melt, to have a gale smashing and battering the ice. The situation is a bit different now, for despite the invasions of Atlantic and Pacific air the temperature-map shows that surface temperatures are below the freezing point of salt water. To smash and batter the sea-ice in December has a different effect than smashing and battering sea-ice in July.


One Alarmist view thinks that, if you want less ice, you should bring milder air north, to slow the thickening of sea-ice,  however a different Alarmist view has the perspective that to have less sea-ice you want calm winds, and baby-ice covered by snow, to act as insulation, that keeps the seawater beneath from freezing. This second view strongly disapproves of smashing and battering ice in December, for that exposes seawater to freezing. The second view only approves of mild air coming north if it comes calmly. The current mild air, however, has not gone gently into that good night. (Hat Tip: Dyan Thomas) Rather it is a ruckus. (Note to self: Title next post, “Ralph’s Ruckus”).

Secondly, having a sub-960-mb low over the Pole involves uplift. When milder temperatures vanish from the temperature map, often they have been lifted as an occlusion. (Note to self: Write a post exploring the concept of the Pole as the “Terminal Occlusion.”)

Thirdly, such uplift causes condensation and precipitation and crystallization, which furthers the uplift by releasing latent heat during the phase changes. All this heat is released up where the troposphere is lower than anywhere else on earth, when the sun never shines, and very little in the way of “greenhouse gas” stands in the way between the heat and an exit ramp to the fast track to Alpha Centauri. Heat is lost upwards, as down falls  bitter cold arctic powder snow, that will not melt unless extra heat is added next summer. (Conclusion: The damper is wide open, and the planet is losing lots of heat up the chimney, with only the embers of a dying El Nino in the stove. )

Fourthly, Ralph should be getting more attention than he is getting.

Fifthly, the current runs of the models suggest the Re-re-replacement Ralph will follow and be a second sub-960-mb low north of Fram Strait, but following lows will be unable to penetrate north. Ralph will become so big and brash and vast that, beneath his spread-out center, the North Atlantic will see a  west-to-east flow, and that will send a couple gales crashing west-to-east across the Atlantic into Norway.

(Merry Christmas, Norway. Merry Boxing Day, England.)

Returning to the uninhabited north, and the subject of sea-ice, I am very curious about what happens to sea-ice when Ralph grows mighty and smashes, crashes, and bashes it, and temperatures are below freezing. My experience of such gales involves this stuff called, “freezing spray”, which coats everything it touches with ice, and can so cover the superstructure of a fishing boat with weight that the ship capsizes. (This may be cheating, because it involves fresh water, but it makes my point; here is a picture of what frozen spray did to a lighthouse by Lake Michigan, though the gale-churned water itself was far below the areas the freezing spray touched.)


I suggest, looking at the above picture, that, when Ralph forms two 960 mb gales in December, it might have a different effect than Ralph had, when he formed two 960 mb gales last August.

Oh, by the way, as some of you know, I love to introduce the subject of Africa into the subject of Arctic Sea Ice. Therefore I simply must mention that the sands of the Sahara got some of the “backwash cold,” which can, on rare occasions, make the pyramids colder than the Baltic. In fact, for the first time is something like 40 years, the sands of the Sahara looked like this:


Stay tuned.


Because I am such a modest person (and am so seldom correct and so seldom able to brag), I would like to remind people that I did mention that the warm air surging up to the Pole might “bump” the polar air south, and might cause what I called a “backwash” of cold air to move west under the mildness, and I even had the sheer audacity to suggest Saudi Arabia might get a second “unprecedented” snowfall. Well, “cough cough ahem ahem” guess what?

The great thing about social media is that people don’t know it is politically incorrect to report weather. It is also very hard for political and religious despots to forbid reporting a freak fall of snow. The mainstream media may scrupulously avoid reporting it, following the discipline of their religion, which does not allow eyes to stray to snow, as if it was a woman’s legs, or low cut dress, or cleavage, or even pure pornography. However ordinary folk lack such discipline, and in a wonderfully simplistic manner just tell the Truth. And the mainstream media  grinds its teeth in rage.

“Don’t those fools understand?” The Main Stream Media seems to rave, “Don’t they see that the survival of the planet depends on reporting only Global Warming? How dare Arabs  report things we reporters must avert our eyes from, and pretend we do not notice?”

Back in my youth I had the discipline to avert my eyes from cleavage, and was called a “prude” for doing so. Therefore I think it is only natural that the Main Stream Media must be called “meteorological prudes”.

What I call “the backwash” shows up quite clearly, as does what I dub “the surge”, in a map of Europe (produced by Dr. Ryan Maue at his Weatherbell Site), which shows the surge is mild to the north (red) but the backwash is cold to the south (blue) in Europe.


The only reason it is “above normal” to the south of this map is because it is midnight, and the Sahara cannot get colder-than normal when it is wet and has clouds after midnight. Also the Mediterranean Ocean is warm. So lets  check Master Maue’s map of actual temperatures in the wee hours of the morning.


In the above map we see that the Baltic Sea is in fact colder than the Mediterranean, so we shouldn’t alter vacation plans. Finland is slightly warmer than the Sahara. However the “backwash” is quite clear, making Turkey colder than Poland, and Greece colder than Denmark.

It must be hard to be a prudish reporter, and never look at what is beautiful. I mean, check out North Africa in this Maue Map:

sahara-chill-gfs_t2m_afr_1  Yowza!  The “backwash” even reaches the Sudan! What a headline! But the prudes in the Main Stream Media avert their eyes.

Sigh. I suppose, to appease such morons, we must flatter their anxiety by leaving Africa for the subject I am suppose to be posting upon, which is sea-ice in the Arctic. And yes, milder-than normal air sure is surging up that way.

Today’s DMI maps shows signs the “surge” may be passing its climax, though it sure remains impressive to me.

I notice a lot of Atlantic heat is being stolen by the Pole. It is +10°C  (50°F) off the north coast of Norway (warmer than the Sahara) and it is +5°C  (41° F) way up in Svalbard, where the sun never shines. It will not make the North Atlantic warmer, to be robbed of its heat in this manner.

The Atlantic “signature” of Ralph is now blatant upon the Pole in temperature-maps (even as the latest Ralph-incarnation is backed towards Fram Strait, in pressure-maps.) However the Pacific “signature” is now gone. All that Hula-Ralph air has exited the surface-scene, and is on its way upwards to Alpha Centauri. Such is the fate of all mildness that enters the starless noon of the Arctic, in December.

Certain Alarmists, (the usual suspects), are rejoicing to see mildness rush north to be lost at the Pole. They are prudish reporters who finally see a hem-line they are allowed to lustfully peek at. All their pent up reporter-instinct to tell-the-truth now finally has something they are allowed to talk about, so you can expect them to report like gang-busters, going overboard, when they talk about “mildness at the Pole”.

However I simply think that, if our planet wanted to lose heat in a hurry, it would send mild air north to where there was no sun, and where heat would be lost to outer space, and also our planet would bring snows to the Saudis and the Sahara, where the albedo of freshly fallen snow would lose further heat to outer space.

What might losing so much heat in a hurry mean?

Stay tuned.

Oh, by the way, because we are suppose to be talking about sea-ice, I should likely mention that though “the surge” is pushing sea-ice north in Barents Sea, and therefore reducing the “extent” in that area, I did suggest the displacement of frigid air south would cause Hudson Bay to flash-freeze before Christmas, though it was practically ice-free when I made my brash pronouncement. Well, guess what?


(Cough cough ahem ahem)


Hudson Bay did freeze over by Christmas, so I won my nickle bet. It is amazing how swiftly that Bay can freeze over once it gets started, and one can see why the captains of ships want to have nothing to do with the refreeze.

As I expected, the surge of milder air up towards the Pole did generate hoop-la from the usual suspects. NPR reported on the warm anomaly at the pole without mentioning cold cold anomalies elsewhere, and Tony Heller did a good job of taking them to task for that.

The cold “backwash” that has sneaked back to the west beneath the surge to the north has resulted in a lot of cold down at the latitude of the Black Sea.  Krasnaya Polyana reported 99 cm of snow on the ground on December 12, when usually they see no more 30 cm at any one time.


So they got a lovely white Christmas!




39 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –Ralph’s Resurgent Surge–(with second Yowza Update: [Sahara and Saudi Snowfalls!!!]) (Plus Christmas Eve Greeting)

  1. Find the speck:

    On another site with a picture, I found a speck a little way to the NNE of the center.

    A more interesting flawless face:

  2. For a long time now I have assumed that Joseph and the 7 fat years and 7 lean years were some sort of climate driven event. Possibly due to much reduced rainfall in the mountains much further south.Naturally the dates are a bit vague but possibly coinciding with the decline in the Indus Valley Civilisation. Quite likely due to El Nino/La Nina being particularly strong.

    Who knows as historical climate records are not that great.

    • There’s a lot of stuff to debate about, involving when exactly it was that Joseph arrived as a slave in Egypt. Some say his arrival was during the “Middle Kingdom” and some say during the turmoil after the Middle Kingdom fell apart, called “The Second Intermediate Period”. This gives you a leeway of two hundred years or more to fool about with, so you can arrange history according to your personal bias. A decent synopsis of the views (with its own bias clearly stated) can be found here:

      I tend to have a cynical view of historians. Currently they are bending so far backwards to avoid human nature they have lost touch with human nature, which is more subjective than objective. We are all in a sense “legends in our own minds” and all “centers of the universe”. One thing that allows obscure cultures to rise to a perilous day of greatness is the audacity that dares to recognize Superiority. It is perilous because when it becomes arrogance it leads to downfall, but without it no person or people can become great. (When the boxer Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali shouted “I am the greatest!” after knocking out Sonny Liston, it wasn’t arrogance, but rather the voice of the drive that made him greatest…for a while.)

      In any case, when I read any history I recognize it is loaded with Bias. Even modern historians, who strive so hard to be objective, are so full of liberal bias that someday their writings will look as silly as the white wigs that were in fashion when Washington was president.

      However within ancient histories, which are perhaps more legend and lore than “data”, are beautiful glimpses of real people seeing real situations they lived through.

      I think the tale of “the 7 fat years and 7 lean years” is a glimpse of a historic event. It shows us that dramatic changes in climate, (such as the one that led to the American “Dust Bowl”), can happen fast. It also shows that an incidental thing like “the weather” can have stupendous repercussions in the lives of the rich and powerful, though they may think they are above incidental things.

      After all, Joseph was a slave and a disgraced jail-bird. Then he got a forecast right. It wasn’t a 14 day forecast, but rather a 14 year forecast. He rose to great prominence, second only to the Pharaoh himself.

      Now, if Joseph had forecast like Climate Scientists forecast, then, rather than correct, his forecast would have been wrong. After 14 years he would have been disgraced, and either hung like Pharaoh’s cook, or back in jail.

      • There is a revised chronology (Aardsma) that suggests a 1000 year typo in the book of Judges. This pushes the exodus back to the end of the old kingdom. The second to last Pharaoh of the old kingdom reigned for a very long time and the last a very short time, then chaos. This matches the bible very well, as does the records at Jericho at the same time period. I also like the fit of Abrahams visits to Egypt with the state of civilization in 3000 BC a lot more than in 2000 BC. Others suggest that the chronology of Egypt is really wrong, which would also tend to align the events of the bible and the ancient world better.

      • I’m going to have to check that Aardsma chronology out.

        According to some Abraham and Joseph could not have been at the tie of the Old Kingdom because Joseph was sold by his brothers into slavery, and they didn’t have slaves in the Old Kingdom.

        I have already seen the chronology change a couple times in my life, because they discovered a glitch in the radio-carbon dating that didn’t match the dating derived from actual documents. (One neat thing about the dry desert air is that they have actual papyrus documents from way back then, whereas you only have to go north a little and all documents except those made of pottery have rotted.)

    • “Wiser” is a relative word. You don’t know the amazing foolishness of my past. It is improbable one could be less wise, and in fact my past may represent a sort of “Absolute zero”, below which one cannot delve. I am definitely wiser than I was, though this does not necessarily make me wiser than you.

  3. The current state of the Arctic Sea Ice is truly unpresidented for at least centuries, if not longer. Arctic is changing a lot faster than experts have feared..

    • I think I know the study you are getting your idea from. It ignores a lot of pre-satellite data. I need to do my Christmas shopping and can’t educate you right now, but there is plenty for you to consider: Sagas report Vikings swimming in waters that now would kill a man; Old Danish maps of retreating sea-ice in the 1930’s; geology on the north coast of Greenland showing beaches made by water where only ice is now; even the first Nimbus satellite pictures (that are not included in current graphs) show a year with very little ice. Don’t put all your eggs in the one basket of a study produced under political pressure, using the extrapolations dreamed up by computer modelers…..and have a Merry Christmas. Don’t Worry; Be Happy. Santa is doing just fine.

      • It’s clear Arctic is a lot warmer now than in the 1930’s or 1940’s…and before that it was colder at least until the start of the LIA. Fascinating superfast change is taking place.

      • In 1944 the St. Roch sailed from Halifax to Vancouver in 86 days. It didn’t take the southern shortcut through Bellot Strait, but headed around the northern side of Somerset Island. It must have been an amazingly ice-free summer on the Canadian side. On the Eurasian side the convoys were making it to Russia without problems, but there are no ice-maps because people were still too busy fighting Hitler.

        Now go back and check your source and look at the year 1944.

  4. Also there’s now much much more CO2 in the air than during the Holocene optimum, which was also a warm period, so warming of the oceans cannot explain why the CO2-level is so high now..

    • I guess you didn’t read my comment to you in the “Zephyr Ralph” post, when you asked me if I was “in denial.” I’m pretty busy, so I’ll just clip and paste it here:

      “Here are two problems with your statement.

      First, the CO2 measurements from the Holocene are from bubbles in ice, and the formation of those bubbles is not year-to-year like tree rings, but contains blended air from a period of 50-100 years. That is how long it takes the wind-blown snow at the top of the glacier to be compressed into “firn” and then finally be pressurized into solid ice. All the ups and downs of a AMO cycle are mixed into a single bubble. The bubble being encapsulated into Greenland ice this year contains not merely this year’s air, but perhaps air from 1916 as well. The blend averages out any ups and downs that occur in a yearly or even decadal basis.

      Second, during the Holocene the environment was different and it likely effected CO2 levels. Think of the entire Sahara being green. How much CO2 would those grasslands gulp? Think of the Arctic Sea being largely ice-free during the summer. How much CO2 would be dissolved into those cold, open waters that cannot be dissolved now, as the water is largely ice-covered? And so on and so forth. There is a lot of interesting stuff to think about.

      So, to answer your question, “No, I am not in denial”.

      • A full AMO-cycle has happened simultaneously while the Mauna Loa CO2-record has grown monotonically (if the yearly ripple is ignored). Therefore I don’t think your point about AMO is relevant. More importantly, the CO-record in the ice is smoothed but smoothing does not change the average.

        Conclusion: CO2-levels today are way higher than during the ice-core record which covers several ice-age cycles, and necessarily climates that are wildly different from today’s (bigger differences than just a green Sahara). Conclusion 2: we are in uncharted territory.

      • Good points. But to me the rise looks slower in the 1960-1990 period than in the 1990-2016 period. Also the entire body of the rise is in response to the “Noisy Sun”, and there likely will be a lag-time before we see responses to the “Quiet Sun”.

        Also I have a problem with the Mauna Loa operation basically being a father-son business since 1960, though questioning them verges on sacrilege in the eyes of many.

        “Smoothing” could erase current high levels of Co2 from the record, if levels began to fall.

        I agree we are in uncharted territory. We have never been able to see how the planet responds when the sun becomes “quiet”, using modern equipment. All our past records are due to “proxies” which I think we have seen are liable to be tweaked by bias, and are therefore open to debate.

    • You are kind of digging your own grave here when you proclaim the CO2 levels were lower in the Holocene Optimum and there by acknowledge that the Holocene Optimum warming was all natural and all due to natural forces other than CO2 and thereby open the door to the current temperature fluctuations being all due to natural forces.
      Caleb is correct that the paleo CO2 calculations are to be taken with a grain of salt ie pay attention to the margins of error on these types of studies and they should be huge if in fact they acknowledge error margins.

      • Thanks for the input, Stewart.

        I have never actually delved into the study that came out (with blaring headlines) a year or two ago that states sea-ice is now at its lowest levels. I tend to roll my eyes at any studies that “erase the MWP”.

        “Erasing the MWP” was what drew me into the Global Warming fray in the first place, for I knew far too much about the Greenland Vikings to swallow that concept. For a long time the Alarmists didn’t deny it was far milder in Greenland a thousand years ago, but tried to make it sound like the sea-currents and jet-stream were deranged in such a way that only Greenland warmed. I didn’t buy that because it is difficult to engineer such a loop in the jet stream that will even stall in place for a week, let alone remain stable for years and years.

        However increasingly Alarmists don’t even admit Greenland was ever warm. They simply produce a study that says the present is warmest and the present is seeing the least ice, and when you attempt to debate they either say old data and first-hand histories are not allowable, or seem to just go “la-la-la I’m not listening!”

        Anyway I suppose I should hold my nose at some point and take a look at the latest study, to see what they are leaving out, and to see if it is worth the bother of attacking. The only real reason to debunk such scholarly bilge is because it has such an obviously bad effect on naive, trusting and dewy-eyed students like “styrge”

      • Holocene optimum was also due to different insolation, which of course is a “natural force”. Also, the paleo-CO2 does not vanish from the ice-column so even if the record is smoothed the average is still correct. CO2 is not higher than in hundreds of thousands of years..

      • I think there is an up-dating issue with the Canadian Ice Service. Perhaps it is because NOBODY will be sailing on Hudson Bay for several months, and so they have not been bothering about up-dates for that particular place.

        It is, after all, a service for shipping – not for climate wonks.

      • Hi folks and merry Christmas if we don’t talk again. I too was watching the Canadian Ice Services and as a canuck wondering WTF is up with the lack of updates. I think it is just too inconvenient for the greentards and our idiot primeminister to ever admit cold even exists in the arctic anymore. The morons think it has morphed into a banana belt type of climate. The past two weeks as I suffered skiing at -25 C I wondered why u couldn’t find evidence of Hudson Bay freezing crazy fast.

      • That’s some mighty cold skiing! How do keep your face warm? I’d have to look uphill and use a rear-view mirror!

        Merry Christmas!

  5. I think it snowed during the latter stages of the evacuation of Aleppo. Not that unusual I don’t think but proves an extended area of cold in the MIddle East.

    • Aleppo is up in the north of Syria towards Turkey. I think snow is less unusual up there than down in Saudi Arabia, though full disclosure should confess this snowfall was in the northern part of Saudi Arabia towards Jordan, and uplands rather than lowlands. But it was very unusual.

    • One problem with the old ice-extent records is that only a fool would hang about in the arctic in September. Once the sun gets low temperatures plunge and the ice can reform with amazing speed. There are tales of ships that got trapped, and once you were trapped there was no guarantee the ice would melt as much the next summer, and you’d be freed. The Franklin expedition perished when two cold summers followed a warm one, and the St Roch was trapped for a winter on its first (eastbound) trip and nearly crushed. Whaling ships also were trapped up there for winters.

      Because of the danger the whalers and fishermen who were lured up there by daring greed got the hell out in late August. Therefore we have decent reports of where the edge of the ice was in August, but not for September. As we perfectly well know, the edge of the ice retreats until the middle of September, and therefore we should recognize we are missing true reports of what the true minimums were.

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