ARCTIC SEA ICE –Spurned Ralph Grows Cold-hearted–

We are in a bit of a lull at the Pole, which is rough on us ice-watchers, spoiled as we are by an autumn of headlines. However even  the pounding surf knows a lull between when the wave comes rushing up the beach, and when it starts sucking back.  Even the passage of a hurricane knows the calm of the eye. Even the rushes of ocean tides know the serene slack of ebb tide. Even Climate Scientists know the sudden silence of changing presidents. And therefore, to complete this cycle, I reiterate: We are in a bit of a lull at the Pole.

Not that temperatures are even close to normal, but they are steeply falling in that “normal”direction.

dmi4-1122-meant_2016

Temperatures could well continue to crash all the way down to the green line, but the media has trouble writing headlines for the current event. The media are in an awkward position, for they were publicly exposed as having their pants down for Hillary the past election, and even Democrats are furious about the media’s ludicrous bias, for it resulted in grotesque inaccuracies. Most people do not purchase papers or click on newscasts to see what isn’t true. Therefore the media is in no position to attract more ridicule, but their Global Warming bias is (and long has been) one of the greatest magnets for the scorn they so richly deserve, and the above graph, even if honestly reported, offers nearly infinite opportunities for sarcasm.

An honest headline describing the above situation would be “Plunging Temperatures At Pole Are Still Well Above Normal”. However the media has so sensationalized and politicized the boring subject of temperatures that a mere graph is seen in the manner of a horse-race, and therefore the above headline sounds a little like “Dead Horse Still Leads Race”.

Likely our changed political climate will see the media split between the shrill, (still screaming about Global Warming), and the wise, (who will lay low and put Global Warming news in the back pages, or perhaps not even show up at Climate Scientist’s alarming press-conferences at all).

This in turn will traumatize the Global-Warming Climate Scientists, who have been basically mollycoddled by the press since 1986, (thirty bleeping years!), as they blared sensationalistic tripe, even while the more humdrum Climate Scientists, (who deal with dull data, and facts, and a seemingly boring thing called Truth), have found themselves in the mystifying position of being lambasted for merely clearing their throats, and beginning a sentence with, “Ahem, I beg your pardon, but the facts actually show that…”  Some even approached the status of being martyrs, (which must have amazed a fun-loving, beer-enjoying, and utterly honest fellow like Bill Gray).

Now a single election has turned the tables. Not that Truth has changed. Truth is Truth, and doesn’t care who wins elections. However the “disbursement of funds” has changed, and there are some who care more for money than Truth.  Such people now find themselves sitting far out on a limb they clambered out onto, to get funds from a past leader, which the newly elected leader seems likely to saw from the tree. You can expect such fellows to scream like the dickens. I don’t blame them. If I were out on a limb, and someone else was sawing the branch I squatted upon, I’d scream too. I’d scream even louder as the limb cracked and I headed down towards a bruising. In the end there will be an eventual “Ouch!” And Truth will remain utterly unmoved. Truth doesn’t care how funds are disbursed.

I will be moved by downfalls, but only slightly in the direction of pity.  You see, when it comes to “cruising for a bruising”, I’ve been way further out on limbs than Climate Scientists, and done far more screaming and falling, and have healed from bruises in places Climate Scientists don’t even dream about.  Why? Because I am the sort of fool who fights city hall, while a majority of Climate Scientists were the coddled pets of city hall. They received amazing amounts of money while I only received abuse. They flew off to first class hotels in Bali to chat over high-priced cocktails before lavish lunches, as I worked honest jobs for an honest beer. And I was mocked, and called a “denier”. Therefore I hope I will be excused for only pitying them slightly, as the dead limb they climbed out on is sawed off.  (My secret snickering and sniggering is, of course, utterly nonspiritual, and I attempt to quell it.) (Though I confess sometimes the harder I try not to laugh, the greater the urge grows.)

The greatest irony is that the above graph is exactly the sort which a Global Warming Alarmist might have dreamed of, but never could formerly hope for. If it had happened a few years ago its propaganda value would have been enormous. (Truth might be otherwise, but propaganda is propaganda.) Now it seems likely Alarmists won the lottery aboard the sinking Titanic.

Personally I think the above graph indicates our reckless planet is squandering heat we need, (it being winter, and I being in favor of low heating bills,) and is furthermore squandering our needed warmth to neither political party, but to an inhumane outer space.

What does outer space have that I haven’t got? Why does Earth spend heat there, and not here? Now I know how a sailor’s wife feels, when her husband goes on a bender in a foreign port. Unfortunately, I lack the power of a sailor’s wife, and our planet will not listen when I scold it (for I do not think I control the weather and the sea level, unlike a certain president I will soon be glad to call “former”.)

The stream of heat to the Pole has often produced a sort of swirl on its way to outer space and to warming the inhabitants of Alpha Centauri. It is as if the loss of heat produces a whirl like the drain of a bathtub. My sense of humor dubbed this persistent area of swirling low pressure “Ralph” nearly half a year ago, but, in my humble opinion, Ralph has been neglected by the media. Only when Ralph, not once, but twice, achieved the status of 960 mb gales last August did the press bother to note him, and even then, despite his efforts and his status of achieving top-ten status, (in the ranking of summer polar gales in recent history), the unappreciative press swiftly gave Ralph a cold shoulder. Why? Because Ralph didn’t reduce enough sea-ice. What a piffling objection to give to a abstract entity who, were he mortal, might have the status of a superstar athlete!  It is a good thing Ralph is an inanimate entity, for, were he animate, he would be royally pissed off, and his heart might grow cold.

Obviously I am displaying a certain bias here, but I figure that, after putting up with thirty years of ludicrous bias on the part of Global Warming Scientists, and enduring their sense of entitlement, I am entitled to an entitlement all my own. And this is especially true because I am not, nor have I ever pretended to be, a true scientist. Rather I am a reporter, a fellow who pries and asks questions and then states observations. In other words I am a witness, at a trial, speaking truth as I saw it, and able to be perfectly frank and able to confess my bias.

I have to admit that I have grown sort of fond of Ralph. I keep writing him off, yet he keeps reappearing. You can’t help but admire that sort of persistence, even though I suppose it is ridiculous to admire an inanimate object. However I do admire clouds and sunsets, and get scolded for it, because I should be attending to animate things and duties, (such as feeding my nagging goats.)

However now it looks like Ralph has run out of luck. He needs a feed of warm air, either as steady streams or as blobs, and the maps show the Arctic Oscillation turning negative, which means a low pressure like Ralph has a hard time existing at the Pole. Ralph’s last reincarnation has been weakening and fading at the Pole, and he has slumped towards the Canadian Archipelago as a mere “weakness”, as high pressure builds at the Pole.

As recently as November 18 Ralph still owned the Pole, but the cold winds in his lee had reversed the flow from south-to-north to north-to-south in Fram Strait, and those cold winds had swept down to Iceland and then hooked east to Britain, and secondary prodigy of Ralph along that cold front were cutting off their father’s flow of Atlantic moisture, eventually becoming three storms: Off Norway; and in the North Sea; and off the northwest coast of Spain (only the most northern appears in the below maps.)

Cut off from funding, the un-thanked and unheralded martyr Ralph shrunk towards the Canadian Archipelago by November 21.

Although I confess my bias and fondness for Ralph, I am also a realist, and awaited his demise as the high pressure built over the Pole.

You will note, in the above map, that even as the high pressure builds there is this peculiar circle of weak low pressure right next to the Pole. That’s what I admire about Ralph. Even when defeated, he makes his reality known. (Sort of like Climate Skeptics, the past thirty years.)

Even though it looks like the high pressure will increase, I can’t help but be on guard for a reappearance of Ralph. The negative Arctic Oscillation may just be an ebb tide, and the next wave of warmth may soon hurtle north, creating the next incarnation of Ralph.

Therefore I seek Dr. Ryan Maue’s maps at the Weatherbell site (week free trial available) to get all futuristic, and to see, as the models see,into the future.

In the short term, it sure does look like the high pressure at the Pole will strengthen. Below shows “now” to the left, and “72 hours from now” to the right.

The thing about the negative AO is that high pressure at the Pole prevents the inflow of warm air, as lows rotate around the periphery.  Therefore the mild air up there, un-reinforced, can only do what air does at night; IE: Get cooler and cooler, awaiting dawn. But dawn is months away, at the Pole. You can see the freezing isotherm retreating slowly back to Svalbard in the above temperature maps, but without any Ralph-feeding south winds, I start to look for some serious cold to develop. (Temperatures have to sink down to close to -30°C before the relatively mild waters of the Arctic Sea, at -1°C, can penetrate the ice above and slow (and even prevent) further falling of temperatures.)

As I looked into the crystal ball, the European model showed that indeed temperatures crash at the Pole, and in a week have crashed to -30°C:

spurned-3-ecm_t850_arctic_10

I expected that cold air would be heavy, and pressing down, and create high pressure. So I confidently clicked over to the Maue map for the same time, showing pressures. Yowza! Did I ever get a shock! Rather than high pressure, Ralph was back! But his heart was cold!

spurned-4-ecm_mslp_arctic_9

I have not the slightest idea how extremely cold air can be a low pressure system. Therefore, rather than science, I’ll resort to handy old blame.

This is all your fault! I’ve been talking about Ralph for months, but you fellow wouldn’t budge from your preconceived ideas. Now you’ve gone and hurt poor old Ralph’s feelings. He is feeling spurned, hurt, neglected, and his heart has hardened and gone cold.  Even the GFS model is showing that, for the first time in a long, long time, below-normal cold temperatures are appearing to the Canadian side of the Pole, a week from now.

spurned-5-gfs_t2m_anom_arctic_33

Now let me display my Ralph bias: When I see that cold north of Canada, and compare it to the warmth north of the Kara Sea, I get to wondering what Ralph might make of the difference in temperature. Could a clash occur? I imagine Ralph might reincarnate in a manner the models do not yet see.

However that is my bias and my sheer humbug, based on the humbug created by virtual reality, created by models. It is the virtual reality of my unscientific imagination built upon the virtual reality of computers. Real reality is quite different, and we never know what it will be, until we get there.

If you are the sort of person described as “New Age”, and pretend to understand Buddha, you act all Zen and call that Real reality,  “The Now”. But I’m just a bumpkin, so I’ll just call it, “Ralph.”

 

 

 

 

 

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13 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –Spurned Ralph Grows Cold-hearted–

  1. I agree with you about looking forward to the fine fair well I am more then willing to offer the outgoing president. It will not be soon enough to have a great impact on life in the United States, as the column in Readers’ Digest was titled.

    As for the incoming president, I am all “hope for change” from the ‘hope and change” I never got from the current one. I have heard his words, and I have watched his pulling his administration together, and I have hope that at least some of his words will have force as well. The problem I see is that although the party he ran for is control of Congress, the people he ran for are not. Whether the party will continue to oppose his every move and thought will tell the story.

    In many ways, I rather hope they do because the people that he ran for might wake to the reality that it is time for a true opposition party, and a real “Independence party,” or whatever they wish to call themselves, will form and lead our nation back to greatness. for without a fundamental change in the platform of policy, the Republican Party needs to go the same way as the Democratic Party, and both fall off the edge of the world into the abyss of the unneeded. I’d sooner see the return of the Dodo than to see these two parties continue to exist. Neither represent their names.

    • It seems that too much time among “talking heads” can delude Republicans into a RINO state, and democrats into a DEMO state, until you have a bunch sitting around inside the beltway nodding and being Oh so agreeable, and losing touch with the people they are suppose to represent. Then they get a wake up call. Now we watch to see how they handle it. Can they remember how to represent the people? If it proves too difficult then I agree: Time for an “Independence Party.”

      Sometimes a sort of “purge” is necessary to shake the complacent up. Didn’t Jefferson say something along the lines of “The tree of Liberty is watered by blood.”? Of course, we always hope it is not literal blood, and the only “death” involved is the death of political careers (and concepts).

      • Actually, I believe the quote was the tree of liberty sometimes needs to be refreshed with blood from time to time. I would like to see a new party so that refreshing it with blood is not necessary. I think we have proved that a 2 party system actually doesn’t work since the Warren court gave the power to the cities. Multiple parties would require compromise and negotiation, something that the current two headed, one bodied party doesn’t even consider.

      • What you suggest may have been the initial desire of the Federalist Party, for initially the USA was a one-party system, with all the differing viewpoints all squabbling in a single system. In a way this is like having many parties, but all in one political party. Or perhaps a bit like the English, where the opposition is the so-called “loyal opposition”, because even when they oppose they are loyal to the King or Queen.

        When the USA states “United We Stand” we are stating that, despite our many differences, we are all loyal to the concept of Liberty, who perhaps is our Queen, and Freedom, who perhaps is our King.

        Unfortunately some in Washington are so enamored of their own ideas that they have drifted away like lost sheep. That is why they are called “the elite” rather than “fellow Americans”. They stand aloof, and have been scornful of the very principles our forefathers founded our nation upon, even belittling the Constitution, and thinking they can just over-write it.

        In a sense the “elite” are setting themselves up as a new royalty. They are moving backwards in time, towards a world of kings and serfs. Rather than progressives they should be called regressives.

        In essence the USA is built upon a concept wherein there are as many independent political parties as there are voters, and a serf has the same power as a king. (One vote.)

        This is a very disturbing concept to the “Haves”, who are forever surrounded by a multitude of “Have nots.” Besides being tempted by a nonspiritual love of money, the “Haves” are tempted by a love of dominance, and want to command people, and frown on differing ideas like the captain of a ship, who deems disobedience as being a form of mutiny. However America is built upon the belief the crew may be smarter than the captain, and the captain better keep his boat ship-shape or face walking the plank. We are, in fact, a very mutinous people, for our true captain is no mortal, but rather is immortal ideals which shall never die.

        Back when our nation first fractured from a one-party to a two-party system there were furious arguments between Adams and Jefferson which necessitated the split. Likely the Federalists were trending towards becoming an “elite”, which is an anathema to our founding principles.

        Perhaps we are now seeing the same tendency of the people in power to gravitate towards a status quo where the “Haves” are so fearful of the “Have Nots” that they see the multitude as an enemy rather than as the crew of their own ship, as “overpopulation” rather than “fellow Americans”. If so, the very stones of this land will rise up to resist.

        I liked your picture of the “elite” as a “two headed, one bodied party.” One visualizes a monster.

        If you ever have time I’d you to expand on your views surrounding the time when “the Warren court gave the power to the cities.” That sounds like interesting history I haven’t heard. If you can link me to a short essay about that time, encapsulating your views, I’d be very interested.

  2. The DMI chart indicates a current temp of about 260K. That is, of course, the air temperature. 260K is about -13 ºC (8.6ºF)–well below freezing point. The sea water is probably a little above its freezing point, -2 ºC (28ºF).

    So, as you have stated, the heat is leaving the water, warming the air. The warmer air ends up getting moved to higher altitudes where the heat energy is radiated to space. The net effect is that the lack of an ice cap COOLS the planet!

    Have you predicted the exact day/time of the upcoming “flash freeze”?

    🙂

    Also I noted your statement “Most people do not purchase papers or click on newscasts to see what isn’t true”. But, it is becoming more and more obvious to me that far too many people DO seek “what isn’t true”. They seem fascinated by lies. They’d much rather listen to an interesting speaker telling lies, than a boring speaker telling the truth. (See “Hollywood”, for example.)

    You have a way of making the truth interesting. Keep it coming, please.

    (HAPPY THANKSGIVING, ALL!)

    • I probably should use some other word besides “flash” for the rapid growth of ice-cover. But watch Hudson Bay over the next few weeks. The Bay is a huge area, but shallow, and I’ve seen the the entire area freeze over with such rapidity that I can miss it, if I get too busy with work (or Christmas shopping) for a couple of weeks.

      I confess that at times I sink into a cynical mood concerning the blindness of some. They are so enamored of an idol they never look behind the superficial facade presented by a person like Hillary, even when you practically grind their noses into evidence of corruption occurring behind the scenes. But that is only some of the people some of the time. Let’s be thankful for the rest, and many other things.

      Elections are the opposite of Thanksgiving. During elections we scrutinize for blemishes and imperfections. On Thanksgiving we count our blessings and look for silver linings. Have a Great one!

  3. I hope you keep a keen eye on Ralph, because I heard a rumor he is heading a bit south for the dead of Winter, and may be planning a circumnavigating whirlwind tour from West to East until the Arctic Spring beckons him home. On the itinerary are the U.S., U.K., Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Korea, Canada, U.S., Great Britain, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, a possible stop or two in the mid-east & N. Africa, Europe, Russia, China, U.S., Canada, …ad. inf. rinse and repeat. 😉

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