ARCTIC SEA ICE –An Alternative Alarm–

I’ve been thinking that, with people so terrified of risk nowadays, and so eager to bubble-wrap childhood into a tedium so dull it could bore a stone, that the best way to get attention in a hurry is to create a counter-alarm. And, because I am in a hurry today, I decide to think up a worry.

Here is the worry:

The climate is trying to achieve a balance, but it is difficult because the planet is tilted and winter keeps switching from the northern hemisphere to the southern, and the sun keeps surging energy, when it is a Noisy Sun. Even so, a balance is sometimes achieved, and then the flow is zonal. It is when things get out of kilter that the flow becomes loopy or meridional.

Things are becoming very loopy, because the Noisy Sun has become a Quiet Sun, and all the balances made for a former warmer situation are now out of balance with a current cooler situation. The loopy situation will continue until the oceans, which “remember” the warmer situation, get on the same page as the Pole, which is much more quick to respond to the coolness of the Quiet Sun.

It is the loopy jet stream that has brought so much storminess to the Pole. The smashed up sea-ice, low sea-ice extents, surges of mild air to the Pole at Christmas, which convince some the Pole is warming, are actually indicative of a dramatic change to cooling in the climate.

The latest loopy event can be seen in the latest incarnation of the polar storm I call “Ralph”, which brought a fresh surge of milder air to the Pole, seen in the DMI graph of mean temperatures north of 80°N .

DMI3 0830 meanT_2016

However besides surging warmth to the Pole a loopy pattern will suck the below-normal cold air, that the graph shows was over the Pole, to the south, and in this case it brought summer snows to the far east of Russia.

Siberia August Snow 2 ims2016241_asiaeurope

Here is a view of the situation in Magadan Oblast a couple days ago.

Siberia August Snow xw_1298331

Please be aware the green leaves are still on the trees in this area. It is not normal. It will dramatically alter the albedo, because green leaves would absorb sun but fresh snow is one of greatest reflectors. Summer snow will increase the Quiet Sun cooling.

In conclusion, I think it high time we all wrap ourselves in bubble wrap and hide under our beds. And the people who should do this most swiftly are the climate scientists who assured everyone the world was warming, because an enraged mob of schoolchildren will soon be coming after them with bats.

AFTERWARD –AUGUST 30

The https://iceagenow.info/ site supplied a link to a August 29 report from Russia on the snows to the west. (You will need to use a translate key.) The cold extended all the way south, down to northernmost China, with -7.8°C reported across the border.

https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/klimat/20580-prishla-zima-151-v-yakutii-vypalo-do-18-sm-snega/

А где бабье лето м...ля😨😱😵🙈#снег #первыйснег#кот #27августа2016#зимапришланежданнонегаданно#погода#Якутия #инстаснег#инстакот#Тайсон#белый#ykt14
Russia August Snow 2 88d848cf
https://iceagenow.info/18-centimeters-snow-yakutia/#more-18678
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19 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –An Alternative Alarm–

  1. Pingback: ARCTIC SEA ICE –An Alternative Alarm– | ajmarciniak

    • Thanks. I visited your site. I want to know more about the recovered Hillary emails about Benghazi. That event always smelled to high heaven to me.

  2. Attention Caleb …. U gotta check out the Crystal Serenity tacker. The wife laughed and said it looked like a kid with an etch-a-sketch. They seem to not want to take a crack at the sea ice before them. The satellite was cloudy when I last looked and so u can’t see the ice but lots to the north of them on the north side of Victoria Island. Great views and good info on their website so I would buy them a beer if I could 😉
    Did u see the Naughtyboat is on the road again … or the seafarers equivalent of Willy’s travelling tale. That is what u should have done …. grown a pony tail, smoked a ton of grass and turned those sonnets into songs … Willy Caleb … I can see it now! Although I do believe Willy had some tax issues.

    • Looks like they are on the move again. They are well south of the area I thought they might have sea-ice issues. It puzzles me that they were so wary. Perhaps the wind has turned north, and they worried ice might head south.

      Northabout is on the move again? They have guts. The ice will give them more trouble than a big liner.

      • Somehow I posted this on the wrong story 😦 originally.
        Not much ice to be seen this AM.
        Repost: From the website it looks like they were just bear watching and it was a nice big fat one. They are off at a steady pace to the north and the way was ice free last I looked. As u said that ice looked to be to early from the satellites (although today is too cloudy to see anything) and so they may have a free run to Pond Inlet.

      • They were slow updating their “love camera” last I checked. Thge time stamp was from August 30 or 29, and the same guy was sitting at the same chair down in the computer room shot.

        ….which means, yes, you’ve got me checking up, though I should be doing other things.

  3. The area of snow in northern Siberia during August is impressive enough. But that swath in southern Siberia all the way to the coast is beyond belief! I wonder what the long term records say about that. Also 0 (F) in Siberia during August is totally mind boggling. I know it is Siberia, but they do have summers that are quite warm.

    When are our merry mariners supposed to reach Barrow? Looking at the GFS progs during early September, it looks unseasonably cold and stormy in that area. I don’t believe they are going to get too much farther.

    • The Northabout reached Barrow, and has hit the road (or water) east already. Maybe they have an option of pulling the boat out in Cambridge Bay, if things get too hairy. They will be touch and go, racing the refreeze. Hmm. “Racing the refreeze”. Good title for a post?

      I have not researched the past weather of Siberia, but I do know that I have looked for warmth from the south, up until early September at least, while watching the Arctic Sea. After all, Siberia’s days are still longer than their nights, though the sun is getting a bit low.

    • Judging from the Russian article I added as an “afterward” link, they can get frosts and even dustings of snow in August, but it usually starts in the north and moves south more gradually, as autumn approaches. This abrupt weather event is newsworthy.

  4. “And the people who should do this most swiftly are the climate scientists who assured everyone the world was warming, because an enraged mob of schoolchildren will soon be coming after them with bats.”

    Bats, or snow shovels?

    I understand your frustration, Caleb. All skeptics share in it. As your post exemplifies, humor is a good antidote.

    • If it were not for humor, bitterness might have sucked me down like quicksand, for it rankles to do right, yet watch wrong be rewarded. But in the end Truth can take care of itself, and in history Truth has always eventually overwhelmed falsehood.

      • There is a lot of comfort in what you write.I’m getting so tired of slugging it out on newspaper comment sections.I thinking going there is just wasted time.

  5. I quite agree with your worry, Caleb and in fact believe that anyone with a lick of sense willing to do some study will conclude that the earth is moving to a cooler (glacial, even) period, just as it has done over 20 times in the last 2 million years. But what intrigues and frightens me most about the current “debate” is the level of magical thinking and ideology-driven zealotry that even denies that chance to say anything counter to the prevailing dogma. It annoys me, honestly, a near communist, to be lumped with the Koch brothers and right wing zealots as a “denier” when in fact I am a trained wildlife biologist with a Masters Degree in resource management, but name-calling seems all the rage these days. I find it amazing though that I can be talking with someone and they launch off on a diatribe about global warming and if I so much as offer a tiny point suggesting perhaps we might be, er, cooling, the conversation not only ends, but I am labelled as a wacko and nut. I actually think you may be one of the only people on earth who is taking the time to look at the available data and present it to the rest of us, remarking on the buoys and the evidence, and for that I thank you. Meanwhile, everyone howls and throws up their hands and runs about in terror (we have fallen into the age of FEAR of everything it seems) decrying this as the warmest year ever. I know the time may be coming soon when suddenly there is no summer over much of the northern hemisphere, and the snow doesn’t melt, and then three years later it happens again and this time the snow doesn’t melt the next year or the year after that or the year after that, and suddenly a new glacial age has begun. See, I think these huge glaciers, they started in place as the snow didn’t melt, and it snowed, and then compressed, then became ice, over decades, and then began to move, and push, but over centuries. But that first summer the snow doesn’t melt, watch out. Things will get very sketchy very very fast.

      • I would say that a record corn and soybean crop reflects some kind of optimum. Absolutely perfect growing conditions with virtually no drought anywhere in the Corn Belt. We have had many huge crops in recent years.

    • The problem here is that the Earth is not “cooling”, unless you deny all the evidence that it is indeed warming…but that viewpoint is called “denialism”.

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