I can’t get going on a Monday without coffee, so yesterday I clicked onto Weatherbell Site to look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s  temperature maps from the GFS model, and clicked on South America to see if the forecasts were right, and they had frost on Sunday morning. The pink in the very south of Brazil shows they did.

Brazil 1 gfs_t2m_samer_1

This is news because it is only the start of Autumn down there. It is more usual to get frost in the middle of their winter, which is July. This is like the orange groves of Florida getting frost in October, rather than January.

I got curious about the GFS forecast, so I clicked ahead through the next few days, and could see the early cold snap faded away. New Antarctic cold threatens at the bottom of the maps, but is curved to the east by the roaring Antarctic westerlies.

MONDAY MORNING  Brazil 2 gfs_t2m_samer_5TUESDAY MORNING  Brazil 3 gfs_t2m_samer_9WEDNESDAY MORNINGBrazil 4 gfs_t2m_samer_13

It has been suggested some of the farmers in Brazil have tried to grow coffee too far south. The same thing happened in the USA when some tried to grow oranges too far north in Florida, and even in Georgia. So one needs to check the map to see if this frost actually reached north to where coffee grows. Brazil 5 brazil-coffee-screen-shot-2013_07_17-at-8_35_50-am

It looks to me like the frosts were  just south of where the coffee is grown. But, if Global Warming was real, they should be able to grow coffee further south. Frost on the first of May, when the trees are just blooming, seems a good reason to avoid planting further south.

Something to think about, as I sip my second cup.




  1. I live in Santiago, Chile. It’s been a very early and cold autumn so far. Interesting to note that the locals point out ‘It used to be like this all the time when I was a kid!’ Sounds like 30 year ocean cycles might be flipping to cool phases around the globe. I used to live in NH (Bethlehem) btw. Love your descriptions of the weather there. Hope you have a warm spring!

    • Interesting observation. I don’t know much of anything about southern hemisphere ocean cycles.

      There are parts of Chili that, judging only from photographs, seemed a lot like New Hampshire. But I guess they get better earthquakes?

      I’m glad you enjoy my descriptions. That’s why I do it.

      • The quakes took some getting used to. The first one was scary (called a ‘temblor’ by the locals, which was just a tremor). Then we had an 8.2 in the north (called a TERRAMOTO by the locals) that lasted for 3 minutes.(‘Ah! So that’s a real earthquake!) This was followed by being woken up twice a week for two months by 5.0-6.0 aftershocks, which are actually like someone rocking the bed gently back and forth. Chile does look a lot like New Hampshire especially in the south with the rivers. South reminds me of Franconia Notch area. One big difference is that there are many strato-volcanoes in the country. So picture the flume with Mt. Fuji in the background. With an earthquake or two!

      • I’m getting a bit old for quakes and volcanoes, but it really does sound like a beautiful place to live!

        As a boy I briefly had a pen pal in Chile. His father was a surgeon and he had one brown eye and one blue eye. He’d be 60-65 by now. If you chance upon such a fellow among the millions, tell him I say “Hi”.

        What are your winters like?

      • I haven’t yet seen this man, but I will keep a sharp eye out. If I get thrown in jail for staring at peoples eyes in Santiago you will need to come bail me out. Winter is pretty mild in Santiago. Latitude is about the same as Dallas, and the Pacific is only about 40 miles away. Down south the winters are colder with more snow. Mostly down there it’s the WIND from the southern oceans during the winter. Just had lunch with a friend who is bringing his Chilean girlfriend up to see the leaves in New Hampshire next year , coincidentally. Interestingly, Chile has something like 15 separate climate zones, which I think is the most for any single country.

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