ARCTIC SEA ICE –North Pole Dumps On Europe–

I’ll have to be quick today, as work is overwhelming me.

The high pressure that was sitting over Beaufort Sea has shifted southeast into the Canadian Archipelago, and if you follow the isobars you can see it is now working in conjunction with a low just south of Franz Josef Land to create a cross polar flow that exports air into the North Atlantic.

If you follow the isobars backwards you notice the air is being sucked from the snow-cover of Canada, and to a lesser extent from the snow-cover of Siberia, before being exported onto the North Atlantic. Eventually this cold air continues down into Western Europe, where a large upper air trough sits.

Shiver Europe 2 gfs_z500_sig_eur_1

This has brought them very cold temperatures, for late April.

Shiver Europe 1 gfs_t2m_eur_1

And there have even been forecasts that snow will be in the air over Scotland, England, Germany and France this coming week.

Shiver Europe 3 gfs_tot_snow_eur_29(1)

To have snow in late April, even though the atmosphere has been pumped full of warmth by the (rapidly fading) El Nino, is going to put Alarmists in an embarrassing position, for it is hard to talk about Global Warming to a population that is shivering.

In actual fact the El Nino has seemed to create an imbalance, and the atmosphere is always trying to correct such imbalances, and one way it does so is to depart from a zonal flow around and around the Pole, and instead to get loopy, with a meridienal flow that at times comes right across the Pole. This may “warm the Pole”, but farmers to the south are not planting up on the icecap, and instead mutter curses to the south.

The best Alarmists can do is distract, by pointing up to the Pole and exclaiming how “warm” it is up there (though it is still well below freezing and no thawing is occurring).

DMI3 0425 meanT_2016

The problem is that the El Nino is fading fast, and a La Nina is expected. Some models are saying it will be a big one, which will likely lower the earth’s temperatures every bit as much as the El Nino raised it.


Scripps 0423 Screen_Shot_2016_04_23_at_4_17_56_AM

In other words, the climate is moving through a cycle. It always has and always will. CO2 has only the slightest effect. It is not worth spending billions to control weather we can’t control. However it is worth helping farmers replant when frost kills their seedlings for, after all, they feed us.

If you must worry, worry about high food prices; not about the fact sea-ice is a little below normal after a big El Nino. There is still more than twice as much sea-ice as there was six months ago. (On this date, back in 2012 when Sea-ice late reached record lows, (red line in chart below) sea-ice was at normal levels, which shows how much the extent-level matters at this early date.)

DMI3 0425 icecover_current_new (1)



11 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –North Pole Dumps On Europe–

  1. Are you predicting that the summer of 2012 record lows will be broken? CryoSat-2 is detecting low sea ice volume for the moment.

    • I would venture that the melt will start out like it is going to set a record, but slow down as the summer progresses, and wind up about what it was last year.

      The big difference will be, I think, the late-summer melt on the Pacific side. My sense is that the water is colder. The Pacific south of Bering Strait no longer has “The Warm Blob” and its temperatures are actually below normal, which makes those waters a full two degrees cooler. Then the sea-ice covering Beaufort Sea cracked a lot during the winter and the waters were exposed to the frigid air a lot, so I figure they are colder. And lastly the ice got pushed over toward the East Siberian Sea a lot, and less than normal was exported out of the Laptev Sea, so there is a bigger volume of ice over that way. Therefore, rather than the truly impressive melt that “The Warm Blob” sponsored last year, I expect less melting.

      I always like to put my assumptions out where I can see them flop, if that is to be the case. I don’t at all mind seeing I am mistaken about things, for I seem to learn more from being wrong than from being right.

      It will be very interesting to see what effect the La Nina has, especially if it is a strong one.

      • Given the thickness of the ice this year and how crunched up it is across the pole I’m figuring something more like the 2014 ice was with a bit more of the 2015 extension towards Severnaya Zemlya.

      • Yes, it will take some thawing to melt the ice towards Siberia, away from the outrush of the Lena River. Also, as always, a wild card is how much gets flushed south through Fram Strait.

        I’ll be vaguely nervous if Hudson Bay takes a long time to melt again, to the southeast side. That would be a bit like the Little Ice Age.

      • Thanks for the graph.

        The “lost” ice was pushed about more than it was melted. There was a high pressure parked on the Pacific side of the Pole for two weeks that had strong east and southeast winds, especially along the North Slope coasts of Alaska and Canada. This pushed a lot of ice off shore, and opened waters right along the coast. This open water may skim over slightly, and make the graph reverse, or winds could blow the ice back to shore, but for the most part it looks like the western approaches to the Northwest Passage should be open early this year.

        It also shows up nicely, when the weather is clear, in the Satellite view.

        Just remember the ice didn’t melt. It was crunched over towards Siberia.

  2. Not just the North Pole dumping on Europe this week Caleb, we have had to put up with POTUS as well! You can have him back ASAP.

  3. Apologies accepted. The delicious irony is that POTUS and Angela Merkel are probably discussing their success at the Paris Summit while having to pretend not to watch the April snow showers outside! Gore Blimey!!!

  4. The Obama effect seems to be imitating the Gore effect, record cold and snow where ever they go. But still all of their blather is about settled science and silencing skeptics. A total disconnect from reality.

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