ARCTIC SEA ICE –The return of the Nudger–(January 25-30, 2016)

The building of the cold over the Arctic Sea didn’t last all that long before the next onslaught of Atlantic mildness came north, with some Pacific mildness pinching in from the other side.

The build up of cold air was close to its peak on January 25, though the nudging Atlantic air can be seen poking towards the pole on the temperature maps

DMI3 0125 mslp_latest.big DMI3 0125 temp_latest.bigDMI3 0125B mslp_latest.bigDMI3 0125B temp_latest.big

By January 26 the Pacific air is also becoming apparent, as it pinches in from the top of the temperature map.

DMI3 0126B mslp_latest.big DMI3 0126B temp_latest.big

Today (January 27) we see the invasion continuing, and the area of deep blue on the temperature graph greatly reduced.

DMI3 0127 mslp_latest.big DMI3 0127 temp_latest.bigDMI3 0127B mslp_latest.bigDMI3 0127B temp_latest.big

This warming at the Pole does verify certain Alarmist computer models that predict warming will be greatest at the Pole, however the problem is that the cold air hasn’t simply vanished. It has been displaced, and nudged south. In fact this is bad news for people who don’t like winter down at 40 degrees latitude, like myself, for the cold will not be staying up where it belongs, and where bears are adapted and have white fur. Instead it will be heading where bears have to sleep the winter away, and humans aren’t so lucky, and must stay awake, spending a fortune attempting to keep from going bonkers by sliding down steep hills on flat sticks, or drinking colossal amounts of hot buttered rum.

A problem seems to exist in the idea that a warmer Pole will make the world warmer, simply because the cold does get nudged south, and in some cases all the way south to lands where people are not accustomed to cold weather. I already posted the picture of the snow-covered palms in Saudi Arabia:Saudi Snow 2 fotonoticia_20160116113053_1280

However now the cold has nudged right through China, giving relatively mild places like Hong Kong snow on its hills, and even further south into Indochina and India. Perhaps the most touching picture is from Thailand, where the army has rushed to bring thousand of blankets and warm hats to villagers who don’t have such things.Thailand Cold 30277820-01_big

The sad thing is that people are actually dying of the cold in such places, although the cold might not seem cold by northerner’s standards. Hypothermia can set in when temperatures drop below 60°F, and when they get down to 45°C (+7.5°C) it can mean serious hardship for unprotected peoples, especially the very old and very young. There has been a lot of sickness reported in places like Bangladesh, as a direct result of temperatures dropping below 50°F.

http://iceagenow.info/bangladesh-at-least-286-children-hospitalized-with-cold-related-diseases-in-24-hours/   This is only one of many stories posted at the Iceagenow site, describing the cold being nudged south from the Pole into southeast Asia. Where places like Korea are used to such onslaughts from the north, places like Thailand and Bangladesh are not. I am quite certain if you were to tell such shivering people that the cold is proof of Global Warming they would respond in a manner that might not be polite, yet I have read some Alarmists write exactly such stretchings of credulity.

It makes me aware we need to broaden our outlooks, when we talk of the “Warming Pole”, for the Arctic Sea is not all that large an area, if you look at a globe, rather than at one of the distorted maps that make Greenland look bigger than Australia. We need to recognize that warming over one small area does not add up to warming over the entirety of the Northern Hemisphere.

We also need to recognize the ebb and flow of vast rivers of air from north to south, as well as from east to west, and the fact the north to south (or meridienal) flows could be set off by the north and south being in some way out of balance, while an east to west (or zonal) flow indicates the north and south are in more of a balance.

I wonder if the “Quiet Sun” is causing a colder Pole, which puts things out of balance, and requires more of a meridienal flow to bring things back into balance. It should at least be considered. All the milder air rushing north might be a result of cold, in a sense like leaving the draft to a flue open and having the warm air in your living-room make a beeline  to the fireplace and up the chimney. I suggest this because I see little sign of all the mild air rushing up to the arctic making the planet warmer. Rather I see all that mild air gets colder, once it gets up there, as the heat is lost to space in the 24-hour darkness of midwinter. Perhaps the sea-ice will not get quite as thick as it otherwise might get, in the Arctic Sea, but I doubt a little less sea-ice will make much of a difference to the planet as a whole, especially with snow-cover further south, reflecting sunshine further south, and also some coastal waters freezing outside of the Arctic Sea, further south than usual, for example in the Yellow Sea in China’s Shandong province.

Yellow Sea 2 eca86bd9e2f918124c250aYellow Sea 3 eca86bd9e2f918124c2402Yellow Sea Ice 1 eca86bd9e2f918124c250bApparently not even China’s smog caused any Global Warming, along that coast. It simply becomes one more image, that adds to the sneaking suspicion that a warmer Pole doesn’t necessarily mean we will have a warmer Earth.

A lot of the cold across China and Southeast Asia was due to an earlier nudge of mild air into the arctic, and it is to be hoped they get a bit of a break due to the recent pause, when cold air built in the arctic. There seems a definite “lag” between the occurrence of events at the Pole, and when the resultant responses are seen further south.

For example, the blizzard in Washington DC occurred even after the last nudging was over at the Pole. It took a while for that nudged, cold air to travel south. Now, even though the current build-up of cold seems over at the Pole, Washington DC seems likely to experience a January Thaw.  It will again take a while for the currently nudged cold to travel south, but computer models are showing the next arctic invasion reaching Washington in a week, perhaps with another blizzard. (Joseph D’Aleo has a brilliant analysis of the various computer runs at the Professional Weatherbell Site, but the one map (of many) that has the most bearing on this discussion is this one):Next onslaught eps_t850a_exnamer_41

This is the European model’s “solution” for February 6, right after a storm moves away from North America, dragging cold all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico. It is impossible to locate where the possible storm (or storms) will track at this early date, but the result is plain, and people in Ohio will shiver, imagining air ten degrees below normal in early February. However I point up to the Canadian Archipelago. Temperatures are forecast to be ten degrees above normal, up there. Once again we see what certain Alarmists will call “proof” of Global Warming. It will not matter if there are frosts in the orange groves of Florida.

All I can do is watch and wait. I remember that these cold outbreaks are occurring when we are amidst the end of a strong El Nino, when (adding in “lag time”) the planet’s atmosphere should be at its warmest. It is slightly unnerving to think how much colder it might get as we sink into the cycle of a La Nina, however perhaps we can hope a La Nina might cause a more zonal flow to take over, with the cold trapped up at the Pole next winter. But this would also cause certain Alarmists to reveal their hypocrisy, I fear, for if the cold was trapped up at the Pole, they likely would stop focusing up there, and instead focus on how it was less wintry further south.

The thing about hypocrisy is that it only works so long before people catch on. A snake oil salesman out in the American West always had to move on to the next town, because people in the old town started to doubt. In the case of the Global Warming, it has been pitched world-wide, and there is no new town to move to. If NASA suddenly gets interested in building a base on Mars, you will know it is because they need to move to a new planet, after all the nonsense Hansen oversaw.

In Turkey they likely doubt NASA’s wasted breath about Global Warming, for this winter they have been unfortunately situated at a place where they get snow whether storms swing north or are nudged south.  Their snowfall totals are unreal, for a land so far south.Turkey Snow 1530223

This is the landscape some Syrian refugees are fleeing through. It is not a pretty picture, seen in that light. But it does get me thinking along lines which I’ll save for some other post, about humans who love their neighbors, versus humans who hate. Isis is obviously filled with hate, but I sadly I know some Alarmists who are not much better, because they use their own incapacity to solve preconceived problems (which may not be as horrible as they imagine) such as “overpopulation”, as an excuse to propose drastic and inhumane measures. It seemingly does not occur to them that what they propose fails the lodestone-touch of “does it love your neighbor?” (I could go on, but that is enough of a rave for now.)

The best response seems to be to counter balderdash by quietly, steadily and persistently reporting observations of the Truth. I figure Truth is a mighty big thing, much bigger than I am, and Truth involves allies I can’t even imagine exist. “Stand by the Truth and the Truth will stand by you”.

It will be interesting to watch the sea-ice this spring and summer, after a winter of above-normal temperatures. My guess is that the “extent” should start out low but, due to the “Quiet Sun”, fail to shrink to the levels some Alarmists are hoping for. We’ll see what Truth shows us.

JANUARY 28  –SNOW IN KUWAIT “FIRST TIME EVER”

Kuwait Snow Untitled_21

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/snow-falls-kuwait-first-time-ever-1565913282

FRIDAY UPDATE  –The Pole as an Engine–

When the milder air heads up to the Pole it rises, creating low pressure at the surface. It also created low pressure because all the moisture condenses, and you basically have steam (which takes up a lot of room) becoming a small drop or flake (which takes up very little room). But when that is done it is done, and all you have left is air getting colder and colder in the 24 hour darkness, and cold air doesn’t rise. In a sense it is like a piston that was going up starts going down. The low pressure at the Pole turns into high pressure, as the cold air presses down, and eventually this weight of air starts rolling south as the next arctic outbreak, and that creates the opening for the next milder surge to head up to the Pole.

Or this is what I seem to be seeing, as a witness. Currently it looks like the last batch of mildness is starting to chill, and starting to press down, creating new high pressure. We’ll have to watch, and see how swiftly the temperatures chill.

Currently we are temporarily looking like we have created a textbook example of a Polar Cell, with low pressures cycling around a central high pressure at the Pole, and with air rising at the edges and sinking at the center. polar-cell-atmospherecirculation

The problem with this image is that it seems too stable, and fails to take into account the observation that high pressure doesn’t perpetually sit on the Pole. Low Pressure rudely tosses the textbook out the window and goes barging up there. That totally messes up the above illustration, for if you have air rising at the Pole it either turns the Polar Cell into a donut, with low pressure in the middle, or perhaps creates a fourth cell, which in all modesty I think should be called the Caleb Cell, or perhaps the Super Cell. However such cells never seem to last very long, which has got me thinking about the Pole as an engine, pulsing away, or perhaps as a huge inanimate lung, breathing in and out. While the above illustration is elegant, and gives the gist of what is going on up there, it is too simple, for simply observing shows us that either the Pole isn’t elegant, or its elegance is of a majesty beyond our simple minds.

I imagine the above illustration is most helpful when the flow is “zonal” and the cold is locked up at the Pole by a jet stream that is circular and sits on the earth like a halo. When the flow gets more devilish and loopy and “meridienal” we need a different illustration to help our small minds grasp the vast.

REPORTS FROM BUOYS

What was once the ice that Faboo (The north Pole Camera) sat upon continues to be flushed down the east coast of Greenland. Faboo’s last picture was on New Year’s Eve, while Fabootoo amazingly survives and keeps sending pictures. Unfortunately it only sends pictures at midnight, for some odd reason, and therefore we only see pitch black, though the camera has made it far enough south to see some light at noon, if only it would snap a picture at that time. Of course, it could be laying flat on its face, or be buried in snow, as the snow has fallen thickly on the east coast, as reported by the co-located Mass Balance Buoy 2015D, which reports snow four feet deep.

The sea-water is below freezing, so when snow falls on such water it doesn’t melt, but becomes slush and seed crystals for new ice. A lot of the ice is home-grown, and a lot has come all the way south from the North Pole with Faboo. I’ve never seen anyone try to determine how much of each type are in the mass of ice crushing south.

At this point the ice may be so fractured we can’t be sure Bouy 2015D is actually sitting on ice. Some of these devices float and report while in open water, and two years ago we had two GPS’s that began on the same floe, “co-located”, which wound up hundreds of miles apart.

In any case 2015D reported in at 71.34 N, 18.99 W Wednesday, which placed it 79.04 miles southeast of where it reported from on Saturday. Then, only a day later, it reported from 70.73 N, 19.42 W, another 43.14 miles southeast, so you can see it is really being whisked along by the wind and currents. Temperatures came in at -4.14 C on Wednesday and  -7.56 C on Thursday, which are warmer than we’ve seen further north, and indicates the gales by Iceland are wrapping around Atlantic mildness. Of course, temperatures are still below the freezing point of salt water, so “mildness” is a relative term.

Across the Pole we have O-buoys 8b, 13, 14, and 15 reporting, though their cameras don’t see much. Buoys 13 and 14 are far enough south to see some noon twilight, though the lenses are obscured with snow. This is evidence winter won’t last forever.Obuoy 13 0129 webcamAt this time of years the O-buoys are primarily important because they allow us to double check the surface temperature reading given by the satellites.  I think the satellites sometimes miss very thin layers of cold air, because the buoys sometimes fail to see the the Atlantic mildness coming north. O-buoy 8b did see the last invasion:Obuoy 8b 0129 temperature-1week

Notice how the cold has rebuilt, and also how the mildness never nudged above the freezing point of salt water.

The other buoys show less of an invasion of milder air at the surface. Obuoy 14 0129 temperature-1week

The location of the buoys can be found on the O-buoy homepage overview. You should bookmark this page for hours of time you will not be able to account for, all summer.

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#overview/gpstracks

The cameras usually have their lenses start to clear off when the sun starts to peek over the horizon. That will be in February, for the more southerly cameras, and in March for the more northerly ones.

NORTH ATLANTIC INVASIONS LESSEN ICE EXTENT?

The ice extent graphs continue to show less than normal growth at the edges. On the Pacific side it is apparently due to the East Siberian blasts heading south more than east. Parts of northern Japan speak of a “mild” winter with less snow, as parts of southern Japan that rarely see snow have been buried.

On the Atlantic side we have watched the invasions of mild air push north, mostly through Barents Sea but occasionally even up through Fram Strait to the west. This prevents the growth of ice in two ways. First, it keeps the ice from spreading out to the south, and instead crushes it north. Second, milder air slows the process of freezing ice at the edges. (This tends to happen more to the east, in Barents Sea, as we’ve watched some very cold air come down through Fram Strait to the west.)

In any  case, both Barents Sea, and the Greenland Sea to its west, have less ice than normal.Barents Sea 20160129 recent365.anom.region.6Greenland Sea 20160129 recent365.anom.region.5If you add the two seas together, you account for a half million square km of the “missing” ice at the Pole, in the extent graph.DMI3 0129 icecover_current_new (1)The question is whether this ice is actually “missing”, or merely more compressed. As we have watched the ice off Greenland, we saw it be reluctant to come south at the start of the winter, in which case it was “missing” because the Arctic Ocean was not being robbed of its stash. Since then the ice has come surging south through Fram Strait, as it always does, as well as the Greenland coast home-grow some new ice due to extreme cold coming south.  We have also witnessed the ice be crushed west against the coast by the east winds of North Atlantic gales. It becomes very hard to say if ice is “missing”, when extent is not the same thing as volume, and the same amount of ice can be like a pat of butter, either a square pat, or spread out over an entire piece of toast. All we can say for certain is that the extent is “below average”.

To the east the winds have been far more steadily from the south, and the northern edge of the ice is clearly further north in Barents Sea. At times the air first entering the arctic has even been above freezing (though it swiftly cools) so it seems only logical that less ice would form, and any ice that formed would be compressed north. I think it can be said ice is “missing” here, because we could see how slow it was to form on the east coast of Svalbard and south of Frans Josef Land.Fram Ice 0129 general_20160129The edge of the ice is far from being static, as some seem to imagine, and a lot of changes could occur between now and when the actual melt begins.Melt and drift 20160128 arcticicespddrfnowcastTwo summers ago the ice actually increased in Barents Sea during the very months when most think of ice decreasing, and it will be interesting to watch to see if the same occurs again.

BIG GALES TO BATTER BRITAIN

It is hard for people to the south to imagine how deep the gales in the North Pacific and North Atlantic get. The gale that caused the hubbub in Washington DC barely got to 985 mb. People would be going ballistic if a gale got down to 950 mb so far south, but a gale that deep is north of Scotland, and will still be that low when it stalls just off the coast of Norway tomorrow. It will then be followed by another gale, (currently off the left side of the map below), which could be nearly as deep, and rather than stall could charge right across Britain and the Baltic on Monday.UIK Met 20160129 31339844What has this got to do with sea-ice? Well, it looks like the flow of Atlantic air is not going to be heading to the Pole for a while, but rather go blasting across Europe. To the south it might even involve some balmy air from the Azores, but it will also involve some less balmy North Atlantic air, which is why you see all those cold fronts on the map. However it won’t be the true blue Siberian air that comes from the east, so it won’t be cold fronts that bring winter-at-its-worst. It might even be “above-normal” in places, but it won’t be as far above-normal as it would be (though exactly the same air) if it was transplanted up to the North Pole.

My guess is that up at the Pole we’ll see some quietude, and the air getting colder in the darkness. (Of course, who knows what surprise could come from the Pacific side?)

However the current nudge of mild air has already done its damage, and the displaced cold air is coming south, down through Canada, with people in the American West getting ready for a blizzard, (though currently it looks like it won’t hit until after the elections in Iowa on Monday). (It is interesting to note that bad weather seems to help conservatives, while liberals can’t be bothered voting in bad weather.  Hmm.)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/election-2016-iowa-caucus-snow-central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

SATURDAY  -ATLANTIC INVASION GIVES WAY TO WEAKER PACIFIC INFLOW AT POLE-

The huge gale off Norway is being downright selfish, and not sharing much Atlantic air with the Pole. The Atlantic air over the Pole is cooling, but a tendril of Pacific air can be seen sneaking in from the top of the temperature map.  This air is following a “weakness” that developed between the high pressure over the Pole and the high pressure over Siberia. It looks rather weak, but should be watched, as it interrupts cross-polar-flow from Siberia to Canada, at least for the time being.

SELFISH LOW OFF NORWAY CHANGING WINDS OVER EUROPE

Over at the always-interesting “Weatheraction News” Site I noticed Piers Corbyn had posted two maps which seem perfect, when it comes to showing how the jet stream across the Atlantic swings to and fro, sometimes looping up to the Pole and sometimes heading straight across and slamming into Europe. https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/

The first map is from around Christmas and shows an especially elongated loop north, and the second is from when the jet flattened out on January 11 (I think.)

Piers 1 screenshot_2016-01-11-10-51-35-13

Piers 2 screenshot_2016-01-11-10-52-02-13

The lower map above shows what a tricky business it is to judge the temperature of a west wind coming off the Atlantic into Europe. Some of the stream is coming up from the Azores, some is coming straight across, and some is coming straight down from the Pole, and they all converge over Europe. Good luck figuring that one out, fellows! (In mid January, the cold was predominate; I’ll talk more about the current tricky business later.)

What the above maps also show is that cross Atlantic jets are like a fire-hose that some foolish fireman dropped, which is snaking back and forth.

I actually have experience with high pressure hoses dropped by foolish people, for once I was the foreman of a crew that cleaned up a herring cannery between shifts. It is a great tale, for some other evening. What applies to this situation is how completely unpredictable the hose was, as it snaked to and fro and blasted people left and right. The entire crew was teenaged boys, and they were attempting to creep up on the hose from all angles, as if it was a living thing. All work had ground to a halt, as they used trash-can lids as shields, and waged war on a sort of dragon. They were losing, but having a blast and laughing their fool heads off, until, as the serious elder in the situation (at the old age of 26), I spoiled all the fun by slaying the dragon from afar. What I did, using my age and wisdom, was to shut off the faucet.

Unfortunately there is no faucet that shuts off the North Atlantic jet stream, nor any real way to get a grip on its nozzle. There are a few deluded types in certain political circles who think such a thing can be controlled by increasing taxes, erecting windmills, and closing efficient coal power plants, but that is another tale for another evening. The fact of the matter is that no mortal can control such power. (The best you can do is pray, and hope that the Creator of such power harkens to a flea, and has mercy, but few politicians are inclined to pray for mercy, because few have any mercy….[end of brief rave].)

Here is a satellite animation of the world’s weather for the year 2015. Focus on the storms crossing the the Atlantic, ignoring the rest of the planet. Just watching the Atlantic makes me pity the weather forecasters of Europe. Forecasting the continental USA is a piece of cake in comparison.

Rather than poking fun at European forecasters, which is a cheap shot from afar, I decided to go look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s maps over at the Weatherbell Site. There are thousands. I first had to pick and chose between various models, and then chose between various versions, and decide upon what continent and then what specific sort of map to look at. I chose the surface-pressure-and-windspeed maps of Europe created by the Canadian JEM model, (which may overdo the size of storms, but seems to have a better grasp of winter, in some hard-to-describe way.) Glancing over 41 maps, I had to decide which ones to share with you (hoping I don’t get sued because I have provided free advertising for their excellent site). I decided to show the current, 24 hour, 48 hour, 72 hour and 96 hour maps.

Basically we start with the gale stalled off Norway, and then watch another storm charge across the Atlantic and pile right through Norway. Like Pacific storms attempting to plow across the American Rocky Mountains, storms don’t fare too well when they attempt to plow across Norway’s mountains, but even in a weakened state this storm does keep the west winds blowing across Europe. My job, as a layman forecaster, is to determine the source-region for the air in these west winds. Are they balmy west winds from the Azores? Are they cool winds from America? Or are they cold winds from the Greenland Sea?West 1 cmc_mslp_uv10m_eur_1West 2 cmc_mslp_uv10m_eur_5West 3 cmc_mslp_uv10m_eur_9West 4 cmc_mslp_uv10m_eur_13West 5 cmc_mslp_uv10m_eur_17My guess is that, at first, a lot of Europe could get a break from winter. The storm currently off Norway could give the north a cold shot, but the source-regions for the rest looks like they are from the cool west, with even some balmy winds mixed in down towards Spain. But the final two maps show a lot of isobars aiming air right down from the north at western Europe, so my guess they might be seeing some colder weather appear in their forecasts by Tuesday.

Now we shall see how good a guesser I am.

In terms of sea-ice, it looks like the Pole is in for a break from Atlantic imports, and may even be exporting a bit. We’ll have to watch and see if the north winds are strong and persistent enough to spread the sea-ice south, which would produce one of those odd saw-tooth up-jags in the extent graph.

 

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11 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE –The return of the Nudger–(January 25-30, 2016)

  1. I enjoy your posts so much…. Just hardly ever get enough time to read them fully, let alone comment. I also enjoy your poetry. Don’t always agree with everything you say – e.g. have quite different views on religion… But free thinking individuals are bound to have plenty of disagreements – with limited information, finite time and different experiences. I have your site saved as a prominent bookmark, so the intention is there to be able to engage more…. Really hope to be able to do so more this year. Keep up the amazing and richly inspired work and hope your health is good (I got the gist from a recent post that you had had an op). All the best. Chris (midlands, UK)

    • Glad you liked it.

      I’m sitting around under doctors orders with time on my hands, so I get to lurk about the web more than usual, looking up trivia for my sea-ice posts. Good thing. Otherwise I’ll go completely nuts with cabin fever, though our winter hasn’t been all that but up here, (so far.)

  2. “…which in all modesty I think should be called the Caleb Cell, or perhaps the Super Cell.”

    Well, which name do we use? 🙂

    Seriously, thanks for another insightful lesson on Arctic climate.

    • I’ll have to think about that. Likely I’ll come up with a third name, better than both.

      You are most welcome. I am glad that what fascinates me also fascinates at least a few others.

  3. Pingback: ARCTIC SEA ICE –The Whiplash– | Sunrise's Swansong

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