A rather simplistic concept I’ve been playing with is the idea that if we want a mild winter then we should hope that the cold gets locked up at the Pole. Keep the milder air down south where it can thaw away the snow cover, and don’t send it north where it all gets frittered away up into outer space. Hope for a nice zonal pattern, and a positive “mild” NOA and AO.
Over the past ten days some very mild surges have gone rushing up to the Pole, which is not good news if you like low heating bills, or are the one stuck with removing the snow from driveways or walkways. It tends to dislodge the cold air from the Pole, and trigger a negative, “cold” NAO and AO.
Of course, the patterns tend to vary, and are seldom as nice and neat as the above chart suggests, but I think you can see how the jet stream looping up to the Pole doesn’t warm our world, but opens the doors to a major surge of cold from the northwest into North America, and a major surge of cold from the northeast into Europe.
What this does is to increase the snow cover, and increase the amount of radiational cooling over snow-covered terrain during the long winter nights, and increase the albedo of the snow-covered landscape during the short days. When you add in all the heat lost to outer space up at the Pole, it would seem the heat budget of the planet would take a hit, when the jet stream loops up to the Pole.
This makes me wonder why some Global Warming Alarmists think it is such a proof of warming, when the AO and NAO show signs of going into their “cold” phase. The opposite would seem to be the case.
In actual fact, when you look at whether the temperatures of Europe are above or below normal, (using the Dr. Ryan Maue temperature anomaly map from GFS data available at Weatherbell), one sees the first ominous Siberian cold of the winter in the east of Europe. And if you look at the Anomaly map for North America, you see the cold sneaking down into the east, where it was so mild over Christmas.This is not exactly what Alarmists expect, when they see it get milder at the Pole. They seem to operate under the assumption that when it gets milder at the Pole, it also gets milder everywhere else. In actual fact, when mild air surges north, look out below.
The question then becomes whether this is just a brief invasion, and whether the situation will swing back to having the cold trapped up at the Pole like it was over Christmas, or not.
It will be interesting to watch, for the current map shows the latest mild surge swinging up over Barents Sea on the Siberian side.Yet in only 3 days we see a new and interesting invasion of mild air swinging up through Bering Strait on the Pacific side,All in all I’d say this is a terrific waste of mild air we should be keeping south, to fuel a nice, mild January Thaw. Instead, look out below!