ARCTIC SEA ICE —Lying Eyes—(September 4-7, 2015 Concluded)

This is a continuation of a series of posts which has been going on for nearly three years, simply using our lying eyes to measure the honesty of certain modern scientists, and the modern media. They have looked rather pathetic, for after a solid decade of hoop-la about the North Pole becoming “Ice-free” The North Pole shows no sign of becoming ice-free.

DMI2 0903B icecover_current_new

According to theory the past summer should have dropped below the green line’s 2012 bottom. It had everything going for it:  An El Nino, an AMO swinging towards the warm side, and a PDO influenced by “The Blob” of warm water, and a storm I dubbed “Rucus” churning the sea-ice when it was at its weakest.  However we have made no progress towards the “ice free” state. (Even though the fellows forecasting that the Pole would be “ice free” changed the goal posts a while back, and said “ice free” didn’t really mean free of ice, as there would be a mere million KM2 of ice remaining.) (We still have 4 million too many KM2 of ice to sink to that new definition of “ice free”.)

At this site we are not trying to create a new theory. We simply are witnesses, as the old theory fails to stand up to the brilliant face of Truth.

During the last post we somewhat accidentally pointed out Polar Bears were making scientists look stupid by being fat where they were suppose to be thin, and proving sea-ice existed where scientists said it didn’t. Those bears don’t have high IQ’s or attend night classes. They simply attend to Truth. In the same way, that is all we are trying to do with these posts.

THURSDAY NIGHT DMI MAPS

DMI2 0903B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0903B temp_latest.big

FRIDAY DMI MAPS

DMI2 0904 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0904 temp_latest.bigDMI2 0904B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0904B temp_latest.big

The maps show high pressure building on the Pacific side, as low pressure rules the Atlantic side and, to a lesser degree, the Pole itself. The things I’ve been expecting haven’t manifested. (I expected to see plunging temperatures as lows weakened over the Pole, and another “Ruckus” to move north from the Pacific.)

Some sort to ghost of Hichuk exists, as the low pressure seems to rotate around a Polar High that doesn’t exist. Hichuck faded into Greenland and perhaps split in two, part morphing southeast to join the high pressure over Iceland (to be called “Notaz”, because it is not an Azores High), and part morphing west towards building high pressure north of Alaska (To be called “Hibeau”, because it is over the Beaufort Sea. “Hisib” is building over the East Siberian Sea.)

The revitalized low “Chuck” has weakened, and a revitalized Dawdleson is loop-de-looping over the boundary between Barents Sea and Kara Sea, but I expect it too will weaken.

A lot of micro-low activity is going on up there, and making me wish I could hire a grad student to study it for me. All I can see is a situation in flux, requiring I give it a lot of attention, but I am so pressed for time I can’t give a flux.

What I have been noticing, but don’t see at the moment, is how cold it has been up there. It is gloomy, as it has been all summer, but the -10°C temperatures we saw a few days ago have vanished, as a recent probe of warm air speared the Pole. This cold air doesn’t effect the melt of sea-ice in the short term, because most melt is due to the waters under the ice, but where those waters are exposed to such cold air the waters are chilled, and this does effect the melt of sea-ice in the long run, because the waters under the ice are colder.

You don’t really notice the cold unless you have been a long-term escapist like me, and watched sea-ice for years. It doesn’t show up all that well in the Mean-temperatures-north-of-80°-latitude DMI graph, (though the recent mild invasion shows up).DMI2 0904B meanT_2015

However the unexpected cold air showed up all summer, especially south of 80° over towards O-buoys 10, 11, and 12. Look at my old posts if you don’t believe me. And, as a bumpkin ruled by common sense rather than science, one thing I am highly suspicious of is the simple fact there have been so few sunspots at a time there should be a lot. So forgive me if I blare a headline:

“QUIET SUN” PRODUCES STRING OF FOUR “SPOTLESS” DAYSSunspots 20150902 If you squint at this image you may see some itty-bitty spots at the equator to the left, but they don’t count, because in the old days a small telescope could never get an image this good. They are “sun-specks”, and scientists use them to become confused. The simple fact of the matter is that they would not be seen in the old days, and if you want to compare apples with apples you shouldn’t count them, when comparing the present to the past . And, while you might not agree with the host’s ideas about planets influencing the sun, an excellent “layman’s sunspot count” cam be found here:  http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

I bring this up because, in the past, when sunspots became few and far between, the earth got cold. Modern science can’t grasp the reason, and some conclude it was therefore “just a coincidence.” This is a bit like saying it is just a coincidence that your thumb hurts when you hammer it, because you can’t scientifically prove how nerves get the message to the brain. Just because you don’t know how a thing happens is not proof it isn’t happening.

Once again lying eyes come in handy. If you stay indoors by a computer, at least visit sites that look out windows. Then maybe you will witness the thawing Beaufort Sea refreezing all summer, when it should be thawing without interruption.

Anyway, here is a graph from the above-mentioned site, comparing our current lack of sunspots with the year 1798.Layman's Comp 20150904 sc5_sc24_1It sure does look like we are seeing, if anything, fewer sunspots than 1798. Is this a hint it may get colder? From scientists all I hear is a lot of, “there is not enough evidence to verify for certain, and therefore…” Then a lot of them use even less evidence to verify that it is getting warmer.

What is a bumpkin to do? Resort to using lying eyes. Are there any signs that it is getting colder? Not if you look where most scientists look. But if you look where Polar Bears look you see them make scientists look like imbeciles on a regular basis. So look to the behavior of other sea creatures, such as whales.

One of the biggest flips from warm to cold (and from cold to warm) involves the Atlantic Ocean, and something called the AMO, (Atlantic Decadal Oscillation). When it flips there is a huge migration of all sorts of sea creatures, and in the past it was primarily noticed by bumpkin fishermen whose livelihood depended upon finding where the fish schooled.  There are great stories of fishermen finding fishing grounds deserted, searching far and wide, and discovering the fish hundreds of miles north or south of where they once were. Only recently have scientists started to become interested in what was a matter of life and death for fishermen, and in a rather snooty manner some of these scientists tend to think they know more than mere fishermen.

Only recently was it determined that what fishermen knew is factual; the AMO does flip from “cold” to “warm” and back, though why, when and where it happens is still argued about. The AMO has been “warm” for a while, and some say it is likely to turn “cold”, but the data scientists use only show it is wavering on the verge, like a top waobblng at the end of a spin.AMO Sept 4 amo_shortThis is too wishy-washy to be an answer, and therefore a person who resorts to lying eyes must resort to people who actually leave their computers and walk the beaches, and even get in the water to swim and surf. They are the ones likely to see something unusual. (Cue for next sensational headline:)

ARCTIC WHALES SEEN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH

For many years the Bowhead whale was just another “Right Whale”,  so named because they were the right whale to hunt, primarily because they didn’t sink when they died. They are now known to be quite different from Right Whales, and a truly arctic species. For one thing, they have heads that can butt through ice two feet thick, and for another thing, when threatened they use ice as a hiding place to flee beneath.(Photo Credit: Dennis Scott/Corbus)

There was good money to be made hunting these whales, and many of our earliest records of sea-ice were from the voyages of daring men who risked their lives in the arctic. Some were my ancestors, and I’m proud of their daring, but less proud of their greed, which reduced the population of these whales from 50,000 to roughly 5,000. In fact, were it not for the discovery of fossil oil in the earth, these beautiful creatures might be extinct, however their population has increased to 30,000, if not to their their original levels. Now they are only hunted by Eskimo.

“Bowhead Whale 2002-08-10” by Ansgar Walk – Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons – https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bowhead_Whale_2002-08-10.jpg#/media/File:Bowhead_Whale_2002-08-10.jpg

During the recent harvests, only 20-30 per year, of these whales, very old harpoon tips have been found in the blubber. Some are of slate, or basically “stone-age”, and an unexploded exploding harpoon from New Bedford in the 1890’s was also found, suggesting these whales can live up to (and perhaps over) 200 years.

In conclusion, obviously these whales have far more experience than Climate Scientists. When these whales head south, maybe they know something Climate Scientists don’t.

Therefore I sat up in interest when off the coast of Britain, where such whales had never, I repeat, NEVER, been seen before, this picture appeared for lying eyes:Whale bowheadwhale_561024

http://www.sott.net/article/293244-Rare-Arctic-bowhead-whale-seen-for-the-first-time-in-UK-waters

Some may say it was a fluke, a young male Bowhead only 99 years old out galavanting far from home. But that is not the only whale far from home.

Another arctic species is the Beluga Whale, which are pure white when adult, because it helps them to camouflage themselves with sea ice, when hunted by polar bears who are also camouflaged, and by killer whales. They can only break through 3 inches of ice, but will trail bowhead whales, using the holes bowhead’s break through 2 feet of ice. They are the only white whale besides Moby Dick, and are extremely obvious when away from sea ice.Whale 2 220px-Beluga_premier.gov.ru-3

Once again we turn to not scientists, but the ordinary folk in Britain. Off Northern Ireland on July 30:Whale 3 Beluga_Whale_Dunseverick_1-1024x576 Photo Credit Gordon Watson

http://www.seawatchfoundation.org.uk/beluga-rare-arctic-visitor-to-the-british-isles/

And then at the end of August two more were spotted in the North Sea of Northumberland.

http://www.sott.net/article/301038-Wrong-place-wrong-time-Extremely-rare-Arctic-Beluga-whales-seen-off-cold-beach-in-Northumberland-UK

It should be noted that there are only 17 recorded sightings of Beluga Whales off the coast of Britain, most off the Scottish coast, and none that I know of from the coast of Ireland. So, as was the case with the Polar Bears, I wonder if the animals know more than our scientists. And once again it is not scientists who give us the really interesting pictures, despite all their grants and hours spent by computers, but rather it is ordinary people who go outside and use their lying eyes.

FRIDAY FABOO REPORT 

Faboo is behaving himself, which makes his progress rather boring. Faboo progressed another 6.75 milers south and east, ending Yesterday’s period at 85.646°N, 15.498°W. Temperatures continued on the mild side, with the low -2.8°C at midnight and the high -1.4°C at noon, which is dull. Rhe view from the camera is also gray and dull.NP3 1 0904 2015cam1_1About the only interesting thing I can derive from this news is that, with ice moving South and east, and O-buoy 9 reporting ice at the top of Fram Strait is going nowhere, one imagines ice must be piling up at some point between the two sites.

O-BUOY REPORTS

O-buoy 9 continues to loiter at the mouth of Fram Strait, now back north of 79° latitude and drifting west (even as Faboo comes south and east) as temperatures remain below the freezing point of salt water and winds remain light. The views remain strikingly beautiful at times.Obuoy 9 0904B webcam

Over across the Pole both O-buoy 11 and 12 look knocked out. When O-buoy 10 produced this picture I started to feel paranoid. Obuoy 10 0904B webcam

I hate to confess such suspicion, but I wouldn’t put it past a president I refuse to dignify by naming to employ drones to blow up cameras that produced evidence for lying eyes that went against the balderdash of Global Warming. I was relieved to see my suspicions were unfounded, as the camera recovered:Obuoy 10 0904C webcam (or maybe the drone missed.) /sarc

COAST GUARD ICEBREAKER HEALY BATTLES TOWARDS POLE

After pausing to do some work/research involving a crane the ship again headed north, with the captain apparently following the weaknesses of leads rather than smashing straight through the ice as the huge Russian icebreakers do. They have seen temperatures sink below -3.0°C.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND UPDATE —DMI MAPS—

DMI2 0905 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0905 temp_latest.bigDMI2 0905B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0905B temp_latest.bigDMI2 0906 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0906 temp_latest.bigDMI2 0906B mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0906B temp_latest.big

DMI2 0907 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0907 temp_latest.big

Looking at these maps a couple interesting features stand out. First is that Laggardson formed what I call a Zipper-low to its east, which it then whipped across the Pole, using the weakness left by the fading Chuck. (I’d call that new low “Laggardzip”, but that would be an oxymoron, so I’ll call it “Crosschuk”.)

Second, the high pressure just south of Iceland, Notaz, developed a strong southerly flow on its west side, but that flow seemed to form an eddy along the coast of Greenland, which became a small low in Fram Strait that I call a frammerjammer,  because it messes up all my nice, neat calculations of how the water is suppose to flow south in Fram Strait.  I’ll call this particular frammerjammer “Framja”.

Crosschuk created some strong winds on the Pacific side, pushing ice from Asia towards Alaska, but now is fading away, and it looks like Framja could become a respectable 980 mb low north of Fram Strait by Thursday, however the winds don’t look like they are going to be aligned correctly to flush ice down through the Strait, and may push ice towards Barents Sea. I’ll be watching Faboo and O-buoy 9 with interest.

There seems to be the usual disagreements, in terms of the ice-extent graphs, with the DMI graph showing us above 2011, and the IMS graph showing us below.DMI2 0907 icecover_current_newDMI2 0907 sea_ice_only

In terms of the bigger issues this discrepancy doesn’t matter a hill of beans. Either way there is no “Death Spiral” and no “Ice Free Pole”. However in a minor way it would be interesting to know which graph is most representative of the actual situation. However, just when lying eyes would be most useful, not only have O-buoy 11 and 12 been kncocked out, but O-buoy 10 hasn’t sent any pictures since this one on Friday evening (or Saturday morning UTC) Obuoy 10 0905B webcam The buoy’s thermometer has continued to work, and has shown temperatures at or below the freezing point of salt water, while the wind indicator quit on Friday when winds were at 2 mph, and staeted up again on Saturday when the winds were up around 12 mph but decreasing back to near-calm conditions. Perhaps there was some sort of freezing rain or drizzle that gummed some works up. However a camera a crucial, for lying eyes. The freeze-up can be swift and dramatic, though it usually happens a bit later in September this far south. A good example can be seen in the movie of O-buoy 7 on September 27, 2013; when the buoy moves from open sea to being surrounded by “pancake” ice in two hours (between 10:39 and 10:40 of the movie) and the ice only gets thicker and more rigid after that. (See movie here: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy7/movie )

That’s as good a point as any to end a post titled “Lying Eyes”.  Time to move on to, “The minimum”.

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