ARCTIC SEA ICE —One Whale Of A Slot—(August 20-24, 2015 — Concluded)

People have been probing the arctic for slots in the Sea-Ice for a long, long time.Whaler 1 ross1-1Back when more than half of all Americans were farmers, farming was only a way to get by. Whaling was a way to get rich, and tempted many to take risks.Whaler 2 currier-ives-capturing-the-whaleSome of the gambles taken and lost cannot be verified by historical records, but live as lore.Whaler 3 AmericanWhalersCrushedInTheIce

However the owners of the whaling boats demanded that captains of the the ships they moved north like pieces on a chess board keep very accurate logs, so they could later pour over the logs and decide where to move the ships the following years. These logs represent a fabulous treasure trove of information about what sea-ice did in the past.

The blogger “TonyB” merely scratched the surface of this wealth, and humbly confessed that the information he gathered was merely the tip of an iceberg (pun), but produced a superb paper that is a treasure trove in its own right, and was published first on “The Air Vent” and later on “Watts Up With That”.  As far as I’m concerned, it is required reading for all who wish to pretend they know diddlysquat about sea-ice.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/

Sadly, there exists a group of slapstick scientists who have never figured out how to utilize history, when they create a computer model. History may tell us that history is repeating itself, as slots appear in the sea-ice, for sailors of the past found and sailed through such slots, however to certain slapstick scientists such slots are “unprecedented”.

The slots I am referring to (huge in the Beaufort Sea, and a mere notch in the ice northeast of Greenland), are best shown in this map:Slot N_bm_extent_hires

The above NSIDC map is notorious for using a huge grid and clumsy automated apparatus to  create ice-free areas on maps, where other observers report ice. But the value of such simplicity is that it makes notches more obvious. For example the Canadian Ice Service makes the huge Beaufort Sea notch far less obvious, due to its fine grid and meticulous attention to detail. (In the upper left of the map below.)Slot Aug 17 CMMBCTCA

Cryosphere Today avoids this Canadian problem because, even though their map has a key to the upper left which shows 20% ice concentration will be shown by a blue color, their printer ran out of blue ink a decade ago, and their system is so obsolete no one can figure out a place to reorder blue ink. [sarc/off] The result is that their map shows the slot very clearly.Whaler 4 cryo_latest_small

However frequent visitors to this site kniw we are not satisfied with the virtual reality of computer maps based on models based on satellite data which itself has been through a model or two on its way down to earth. Instead we demand that we sail out into the open waters of those notches. We are in fact, (in a sort of fat and lazy modern way), whalers.

Through the eyes of O-buoy cameras we know exactly what is going on in the notches, and how much ice is in those open waters. Satellites? Pah! Who needs stinking satellites, when you can bob those seas in a rowboat with a thermometer, seeing the situation from roughly a meter above the level of the sea?

One thing we have seen is that these notches open not because ice melts.  Rather it is because ice to the north moves north, as we move south or stand still. Obviously this will create open water.

On the Atlantic side we’ve seen the North Pole Camera, (which I nickname “Faboo”) head fifteen miles to the northwest the past two days, as the ice at O-buoy 9, south of there, does not move north. This has created lots of open water for O-buoy 9 to sail about in, reporting temperatures below freezing that cannot create open water.Obuoy 9 0819 webcam Obuoy 9 0819C webcam

Considering the ice on the Atlantic side has been shoved north, you might think the ice on the Pacific side would be shoved south, and this is exactly what we have seen happen to the solid ice O-buoy 10 rests upon. Because it is being shoved into the open waters of the “Slot” we are expecting it to break apart, but it hasn’t happened yet.  Instead we get pictures of a melt-water channel thawing and then refreezing with boring regularity.Obuoy 10 0819 webcam Obuoy 10 0819C webcam

O-buoy 11 is to the southeast, and bobbing around in The Notch. We have seen those waters are not as ice-free as some satellite maps suggest. One moment the water may appear ice-free, but that may be because our whaler does not have a kid up in a crow’s nest three stories tall, but rather a camera in a buoy three feet tall. The horizon is close. Still, three feet is a better sail than a flat iceberg a half foot tall, and our keel has less drag than an iceberg with 9/10th of its ship underwater. A big, flat piece of sea-ice with a sail only six inches high has a keel sticking down three feet, whereas our buoy might have a keel that sticks down that much, but has a bigger sail, sticking up three feet, and this allows us to sail hither and thither among the lumbering bergs, gathering data satellites can’t. Some satellite guidance, through modeled filters, call this water ice-free:Obuoy 11 0819 webcam Obuoy 11 0819B webcam Obuoy 11 0819C webcam

O-buoy 12 is a subject I approach with trepidation, as it has been clouting my preconceptions, either side of my head, all summer.

My preconceptions state that southern ice-free waters are warmed by sub-baked tundra air and Pacific intrusions, and that these warmed, southern waters move north to melt ice further north from beneath.  What we seem to be seeing is ice to the north refusing to wait, and instead coming south to be melted. .This cools the southern waters even before they can start north.

To the north of there is “The Slot.” As far as I can tell The Slot is open water not sheltered by a lid of ice and warmed by waters from the south, but rather is water chilled by unseasonable cold from above.  Rather than warmer this water is colder.

With southern waters cooled even before they can start north, and the “Slots” waters also cooled, the sea-ice to the north will see less melt from below. Or so I guess. However O-buoy 12 has embarrassed me so many times that I tend to just watch his views, waiting for my next comeuppance.

Obuoy 12 0819 webcam Obuoy 12 0819C webcam The above view is from waters that are “ice free” according to some maps. Temperatures have dipped below the freezing point of salt water. Winds are around 10 mph.

Despite the fact this is shattering my preconceptions and making my predictions look foolish, I find it worthy of wonder. Something new is being taught. A door to understanding is opening. Forty years ago I’d look at such unexpected stuff and exclaim, “Far out!” Now I tend to grouch, “Oh crap,” because it means I have to go back to the old drawing board.Whaler 5 Peter Arno drawing board cartoon, New Yorker 1941-8x6

Hopefully this post will involve a new drawing board and new ideas, (which might not be so new, and which old whaling ships might have known about, but which wasn’t taught to me, because whaling was politically incorrect, when I went to school).

One reason for “The Notch”, on both the Atlantic and Pacific side, may be a discordance between the Polar and Ferral Cells, but blabbing about that can wait until tomorrow.

DMI2 0819B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0819B temp_latest.big

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0820 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0820 temp_latest.big

Likely I am over-simplifying as usual, but I am seeing “Hichuk” on the Pacific side as the center of the Polar Cell, and “Hiska” over Scandinavia and the blocked low south of Iceland as Ferrel cell systems. “Beaucat” has some strong winds north of it over Laptev Sea, as “Chuck” is weak and drifts towards Svalbard. With “Chuck” now a north Atlantic low, and a high  building over Greenland, we are getting back to a more normal situation in Fram Strait,  with north winds, and perhaps Faboo will start  behaving itself and head south like it is suppose to.

The unofficial reports that gave us a shocking -4.19° C  at Faboo last night have become more reasonable, at -0.39° C, but I must admit Lake Faboo does look frozen this morning. We went from freeze to slush-season to refreeze so fast I’m suffering a sort of whiplash.NP3 1 0820 2015cam1_1

To the south the whiplash had O-buoy 9 tilted, with temperatures below freezing, followed by light winds and the first sunshine we’ve seen in a while. Perhaps we’ve drifted farther south than I thought, because it looks like we’ve run aground on a beach where the coral has been tragically bleached by Global Warming.Obuoy 9 0820 webcamObuoy 9 0820B webcam

O-buoy 10 had winds drop to near calm and overnight temperatures dip near -2°.Obuoy 10 0820 webcam

O-buoy 11 sees light winds of 5 mph and overnight chill around -1°. If anyone is paying the slightest bit of attention to albedo any more, the bergs look like they have been repainted white by recent snow.Obuoy 11 0820 webcam

O-buoy 12 sees wide open waters and clear sailing through “The Slot”, with winds around 10 mph. The surprise to me is that the air temperature is -3°. Those waters are being chilled.Obuoy 12 0820 webcam

Now is a time of mourning at the Pole. Polar bears wear black, and the white flag is flown at half mast, (which confuses enemies, who can’t figure out if the Pole is surrendering or not.)  The mourning is because the average temperatures dip below freezing. Slush season is officially over.DMI2 0820 meanT_2015The sharp drop in the extent graph may be due to the last hurrah of slush-season (and also ice melting in Hudson Bay), but we may soon see a bit of an uptick as melt-water pools freeze over, and stop being seen as open water.DMI2 0820 icecover_current_new

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE  —Beaufort O-buoys showing freeze-up—

O-buoy 10 has seen temperatures drop to -3° and the melt-water channel has frozen.Obuoy 10 0820B webcam Obuoy 10 0820C webcamO-buoy 11 is seeing -2° and the open water is starting to have the stage-one “oily look” of a freeze.Obuoy 11 0820B webcam Obuoy 11 0820C webcamO-buoy 12 ran into some traffic after a spell sailing free, and temperatures continue to drop, down to -4°. Here a 10 mph breeze is making sure the cold air stirs in with the water, which looks a bit slushy at the edges.Obuoy 12 0820B webcamObuoy 12 0820C webcam

FABOO CRASHES INTO COLD AIR AND CHANGES COURSE

After plowing northwest as far north as 86.315°N Faboo’s course backed to southwest, end ing the 24-hiur-period at 86.304°N, 12.088°W, which is 5.3 miles nearly due west of where we began, and not the right way to be heading if we want to get to Fram Strait. The course correction was accompanied be a wind shift from southeast to northeast, and then by a dramatic freeze at the very end of the time period. The high was +0.5°C, and temperatures only gradually fell to +0.2°C at 1500Z, and then to -0.5°C at 1800Z and -2.4°C at 2100Z. (We may have fallen further, but that must wait until tomorrow’s official report).

The dramatic nature of the freeze is shown by the fact Lake Faboo has some dusty snow blown over its left side. As soon as melt-water pools turn white satellites have an easier time understanding they are not open water.NP3 1 0820B 2015cam1_1THURSDAY AFTERNOON DMI MAPS

DMI2 0820B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0820B temp_latest.big

FRIDAY MORNING MAPS  —Glitches—

DMI2 0821 mslp_latest.big

There is no DMI temperature map this morning. I’ll stick it in  if it becomes available later. But I want it now. I want to know how much warm air is invading the Pole from central Siberia., and up the west side of the warm high pressure, Hisca, over Europe.

Also there are no  O-buoy pictures this morning. Sometimes too many people want to download data from  the Pole, and the satellite only has a limited capacity to transmit data,  the O-buoy people have to wait in line. However I want pictures now. I want to see, with my lying eyes, if the refreeze is continuing in Beaufort Sea.

Even Faboo is not giving us a very clear idea of what is going on, except that it is frosty. Unofficial reports have us at -0.58° C.NP3 1 0821B 2015cam1_1

I refuse to be denied. I go to the Weatherbell Site, and look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s amazing maps. I chose the Canadian “JEM” model’s polar views of 2 meter temperatures, and get a surprise. (Because I’m American, I look at temperatures in Fahrenheit. Below freezing is pink.)  This map is the initial 0000z map, and the warmth in  Europe is muted because it is night. (Click  these maps to clarify and enlarge.)SKA 1 cmc_t2m_arctic_1To accent the heat in Europe I click ahead to the noontime forecast.SKA2 cmc_t2m_arctic_3What catches my attention is not the warmth in Europe, but the cold pouring south into Russia. Also it is freezing in Siberia. In August?  What the heck?

As a general assumption I figure the tundra is  sun-baked and warm, under long days and clouds of mosquitoes (which is why the polar bears stay out on the ice if they can.) When isobars suggest winds from the tundra out onto the Arctic Sea, I figure those winds are mild, at least until the nights lengthen in September. But once again I need to adjust my assumptions, for it looks like Siberia is not the mild source-region I took for granted it must be in August. The polar lows I call “Beaucat” and “Chuck” are not sucking warmth north, on their east sides.  The Siberian coast is colder than I suspected.

OK then, what about the heat over Europe? is that going to head towards the Pole? I look at the UK Met Maps.

INITIAL 0100Z FRIDAY UK Met 0821A 26854736 FORECAST 0100Z SATURDAYUK Met 0821B 26857227  FORECAST 0100Z SUNDAY  UK Met 0821C 26858646FORECAST 0100Z MONDAYUK Met 0821D 26858658

Even though Hiska hangs tough as a blocking high over Europe, and the gale over Iceland is stalled and can only kick weak low pressure towards The English Channel, at the top of the map there seems to be an arctic wall keeping the warmth at bay. (It does look like a nice weekend for a lot of Europe, though you can see the cold front come down over Russia to the east.)

My morning conclusion? The Arctic Sea is staying cold.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE  —Faboo straightens Up His Act—

Yesterday Faboo continued south, and quit the business of drifting west at 12.180°W at 0900Z, and henceforth behaved himself, heading south-southeast for Fram Strait like a good camera. The 24-hour period concluded with Faboo at 86.210°N, 12.018°W which is 6.49 miles nearly due south of where we began. (There was one little waver of willpower at the end. Faboo actually made it east to 12.003° W at 1800Z, and then backslid west at the end. However I think it best we overlook that transgression. We do not wish to discourage poor Faboo, who has obvious issues in terms of direction.)

Faboo went through  a stressful day yesterday, with temperatures plunging to -4.4°C at 0300Z . (I thought those low readings must be a glitch when they appeared on the unofficial Mass Balance Buoy report.) ( After all, Buoy 2015E: is currently reporting it is -43.59°C down at 77.33° N, 11.09° W in Fram Strait.) (Call me a “denier” if you will, but I doubt that data.) Faboo’s pictures of Lake Faboo flash-freezing did make the low reading seem plausible, but I had to wait to see the official data to be sure.

The flash freeze only lasted around nine hours, and by 1500Z Faboo had made it back up to 0.0°C for the day’s high, and had only slipped to -0.2°C at 2100Z. So here too we see Faboo is shaping up his act and behaving himself. Today’s pictures even show Lake Faboo thawing slightly and melting the fresh snow on its surface to slush, as a snow-bow circles the horizon.NP3 1 0821B 2015cam1_2NP3 1 0821C 2015cam1_1

The pictures are pretty, and Faboo’s efforts at reform are praiseworthy, so I am surely going to seem like a cad when I look back at his aberrant behavior. However I have a taken a certain amount of abuse for saying flash-freezes are a part of arctic weather even in the height of summer. Therefore this blatant example redeems my reputation. (You see, I want to earn redemption as badly as Faboo does.)

In a nutshell, I have been informed that when air descends at the Pole it must be warmer, like Chinook breezes downwind of a mountain range. I have asserted that there must be an exception to that rule, for (and it happened here today) when a summer thundershower passes near on a sweltering summer day, a down-burst brings refreshingly cool breezes. In the arctic, where temperatures are so close to freezing to begin with, the down-burst is not refreshingly cool but rather a flash freeze.

Some Alarmists object most strenuously to my assertion of what seems to me to be a farmer’s common sense. In the most elaborate and lengthy replies they explain the science of the top of the troposphere and other stuff well beyond my pay-grade. As a bumpkin, I just look at them askance. What do they take me for? I know what I know, see what I see, and no amount of algebra is going to persuade me that the downdraft from a passing thundershower is hot.

Rather than continuing to questioning myself, I have started to question them. What worries them so much about flash-freezing, up at the Pole?  To me it seems a fairly obvious fact. Abruptly Faboo saw temperatures of -4.4°C. What’s the big deal?

O-BUOY CAMERAS BACK ON LINE  –An end to paranoia–

The flash freezes that I mentioned above, while relatively rare on the Atlantic side of the Pole (as far as I could see) were astonishingly common this past summer on the Pacific side, even to the point where you could call them the rule rather than the exception. Even in July, when the slush season is suppose to be at its height, temperatures were often below freezing.

Obviously this would fascinate me, especially as smarter people had told me flash freezes could not happen. I happen to believe in what I can see, more than I believe in smarter people, because smarter people are not God. God is Truth, which is something better scientists respect, better poets respect, better engineers respect, and even better Atheists respect (because better Atheists believe in Truth even if they don’t believe in God.)

American coins state, “In God We Trust,” because initially America was founded on Truth. This Truth respected the sanctity of the eyesight of even a bumpkin farmer like myself, for I was given the same one vote of the richest man, and the same one vote as the smartest genius.

Unfortunately America has fallen. It is governed by people who do not trust Truth, because Truth can make us look incorrect. When they say they will reduce unemployment, and unemployment rises, rather than trusting the Truth, they simply change the way the data is gathered, so it looks like unemployment isn’t rising.

In the same manner, when they say the Globe is warming, and it isn’t, they just change the way the data is gathered, so it looks like the world is warming. This falsification of temperature data has been done so blatantly and so crudely that I think the rest of the world is starting to catch on. The United States is not what it used to be. Rather than the rescuers of other nations, we might be in need of rescue.

In the end, the nation that saves the world will be the one that is most honest and most truthful, not the one that is most sly and deceitful. In terms of a free press, I’m ashamed to say the American Press is the latter and not the former. Americans only read their papers to learn what the Bogus News is. For the Truth they turn to the internet.

As an American, brought up to love the Truth, I am utterly appalled by my government’s dishonesty. I will do all in my tiny power to remove big-shots from office. However the United States may have past its prime, and it may be up to another nation to take the baton as we fall.  Once we were “the Last Hope Of Humanity,” but maybe that honor will pass on to India. They certainly have a freer press, a greater population, and may well deserve the honor of being called “The World’s Greatest Democracy”.

As an American, it really aggravates me to watch America lose the status of being the “good guys”. But what can a bumpkin do? All I can do is speak the Truth as loud and as long as I can. All it has ever done is bring me trouble, in terms of political power and wealth, but it makes me free, and that is better than power and wealth. (Even if they lock you up, you are still free, as Paul and Peter proclaimed from Roman jails.)

What does this have to do with sea-ice? Well, a government so fallen that it would falsify unemployment figures, and temperature figures, might also be tempted to falsify sea-ice data, or at least shut down cameras that refuse to verify that water the government states is ice-free holds no ice.  Or so stated my paranoia.

However the wonderful thing about the O-buoy cameras is that, even if they are denied access to satellites, they can store their information and just wait. Later, when the satellites become available, all the evidence can be down-loaded.

For a while Truth may be hidden, like the part if an iceberg under water. But it doesn’t cease to exist just because you can’t see it. (And it can sink a Titanic, if you ignore it.)

My favorite picture, now available, is from O-buoy 12, and shows no ice in sight.Obuoy 12 0821 webcamI like this picture because it verifies a forecast I made last spring. (I do not need to confess a large mass of ice just retreated into the distance, or mention that ice does not need to be far away to be “over the horizon.”)  However what continues to blow me away is that these open waters occur despite the air being in a steady state of “flash-freeze”, and below the freezing point of salt water.  (IE This is not a picture of a “warming” Arctic Sea.)Obuoy 12 0821 temperature-1weekO-buoy 11 was viewing similar “ice free” waters not long ago, and now look at it.Obuoy 11 0821 webcamObuoy 11 0821 temperature-1weekO-buoy 10 has been drifting south into *ice-free” waters, but doesn’t even have the decency to crack apart.Obuoy 10 0821 webcam Obuoy 10 0821 temperature-1week

Even O-buoy 9 over on the Atlantic side is seeing a flash freeze.Obuoy 9 0921 webcamObuoy 9 0821 temperature-1week

What you need to do is match these buoys with the map that shows areas as ice-free, however after a long and hard and hot week living as a bumpkin, I’d rather look for evidence Truth is beauty. Such as O-buoy 9 at midnight, yesterday.Obuoy 9 0820Z webcam

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE

The first thing I wanted to check this morning was O-buoy 12, to see if it still had clear sailing. It did, which means I lost another nickle, because I bet it would run into ice by morning. (There may be some bergs in the mist on the distant horizon, but they don’t count.) I never bet more than a nickle on sea-ice, because it is so unpredictable, but this buoy is costing me a lot of nickles. They add up, y’know.Obuoy 12 0822 webcamThe second thing I checked was the thermometer attached to this buoy, to see if the open water had warmed the air at all. It hadn’t, which costs me another nickle. (Click graph to clarify, of not enlarge.)Obuoy 12 0822 temperature-1week

I am amazed the air is so cold so close to water that can’t be colder than -1.7°C or so. I’ve started to wonder if this thermometer might read low. At the very least it would provide me with a handy excuse for losing so many nickles. The only problem is that Buoy 2014G: is coming in at  -2.13° C, and it can’t have drifted too many miles away. (Formerly it was co-located with O-buoy 12.) Perhaps I’d better check the maps.

DMI2 0822 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0822 temp_latest.big

“Hichuk” is now a textbook polar cell over the Pole with lows rotating around it. I am going to grotesquely simplify, and call the low over the Kara Sea (and pouring chilly air over Moscow) “Chuck”,  though another part of Chuck is a very weak low north of the Canadian Archipelago, and still more of Chuck went down to Hudson Bay to join that fracas (I’ll call that  low “Hud”.)  The stalled storm over Iceland will be “Dawdle”, and the one over east Siberia will  retain the name “Beaucat”, as it starts its second lap of the Pole.

Hichuk seems to be swinging the cold around from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Faboo is unofficially reporting another flash freeze, as Buoy 2015D: has gone from reporting +0.32°C to -3.52°C, as the midnight sun creeps ever closer to becoming a midnight sunset.NP3 1 0822 2015cam1_2 NP3 1 0822B 2015cam1_1

The cold has made it down to the northern mouth of Fram Strait, as O-buoy 9 reports temperatures down around -4°.Obuoy 9 0822 webcam

I am curious to see if the cold swinging to the Atlantic allows Beaufort Sea to warm. O-buoy 10 has mellowed only slightly, up to around -0.77°C according to a co-located Mass Balance Buoy. It’s light winds are likely south, for it has stopped drifting south and nudged north a bit. Obuoy 10 0822 webcamO-buoy 11 has seen temperatures flirt with freezing, but temperatures have sagged back to -1° as winds became nearly calm.Obuoy 11 0822 webcam

O-buoy 12 is still showing the same picture, but I’ll bet you a nickle it shows sea-ice by noon.

NOONTIME  —I Lose—(Unless you count that upper left chip)Obuoy 12 0822B webcam

BLACK HOLE THREATENS O-BUOY 9Obuoy 9 0822C webcam 

SUNSET (AND SUNRISE)  AT 74.4° LATITUDEObuoy 11 0822B webcam

SATURDAY AFTERNOON DMI MAPS

DMI2 0822B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0822B temp_latest.big

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

DMI2 0823 mslp_latest.big DMI2 0823 temp_latest.big

The pattern looks nice and zonal, but Hichuk may be destabilizing like a wobbling top, as it is pulling mildness in from The Canadian side, and Jack has roaring, gale force winds along the Siberian coast. This is backing the waters towards the Atlantic, and also snitching some of the cold air from the Pole and exporting it down over Moscow.

This is worth visiting the Weatherbell site, to look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s cool maps of Asia. However danger is involved. Do not, I repeat, do not look at the cool typhoons down in the lower right. Such distractions can take you off onto sidetracks, and you may not get back to sea-ice for hours. (Click maps to enlarge, and click again to enlarge further.) (They show the warm afternoon in western Europe, but Russia getting north winds.)

DMI2 0823 cmc_t2m_asia_3 DMI2 0823 cmc_mslp_uv10m_asia_3

SOME LAZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON O-BUOY REPORTS

O-buoy 9 has been through a fairly wild spell of weather, with temperatures dropping to -5°C and swinging back up to freezing and also a considerable lurch back to the west even as Faboo curved east, which you would think would condense the sea-ice between. At one point the camera was leaning backwards and showing mostly sky, so I imagine the buoy is taking a beating, though winds only peaked briefly up around 20 mph and now have settled back to the 5-10 mph range.

Obuoy 9 0823 temperature-1week Obuoy 9 0823 longitude-1weekObuoy 9 0822D webcamObuoy 9 0823 webcamObuoy 9 0823B webcamO-buoy 10 has had a more sedate time, starting to drift back north in light winds, with temperatures persistently between zero and -3° C. Obuoy 10 0823B webcamO-buoy 11 has stopped reporting, though we did get a good picture of arctic twilight right after a blast of -4°C air came through this morning.  It should be noted that the conditions that appear in these pictures do not warm the exposed seawater much. This ice appears stationary at the moment.Obuoy 11 0823 webcamObuoy 11 0823B webcam

O-buoy 12 is happily sailing the open waters of The Slot with only an occasional berg passing in the distance. Air temperatures have risen to the approximate temperature of recently thawed seawater, or -1.5°C. The breezes are fairly gentle, at 5-10 mph, but the buoy has carelessly turned from southwest to northwest, which is not a very wise move if it wants to avoid ice to the north.Obuoy 12 0823B webcam

FABOO’S WEEKEND HIGH-JINKS

I know I said Faboo was shaping up. I know I must seem like one of those bosses who writes a glowing recommendation because it is the most recent employer who pays a percentage of a bum’s unemployment. However I had no idea Faboo would go a-rambling this weekend. And it really wasn’t all that bad, compared to other rambles. Perhaps we should be patient with the poor thing.

On Friday he did wobble a bit, in terms of heading east. He started at 12.018°W, proceeded east to 11.892°W, briefly backslid to 11.929°W, then proceeded on to 11.831°W, before backsliding more brazenly to 11.890°W. But what the heck. It was Friday night, and there are always a lot of bad influences around on Friday nights, and Faboo did end the day further east than he started. And he did much better in terms of heading south, making steady progress until the final report, when he slid back from 86.178°N to 86.179°N, and heck, what is .001° between friends? The important thing is that Faboo progressed 2.22 miles in the right direction, towards Fram Strait.

The temperatures achieved a high of 0.0°C at 0600Z and then some chillier air began wafting in even though the winds were dropping to mere breaths of 2 mph. Faboo could feel another flash freeze coming in, but the thermometer began to display the ABUHI effect as the wind dropped. (That stands for “Arctic Buoy Urban Heat Island.) This became very apparent when winds dropped to a complete calm at 1500Z and temperatures abruptly spiked to +2.4°C. This caused poor Faboo to look wildly about for signs of flash thawing, but all he could see was wan sunshine and a snow-bow on the horizon. Then, as soon as winds rose to 2 mph temperatures dropped to -0.5°C at 1800Z, and as winds puffed up to 5 mph temperatures plunged to -2.3°C as the sun swung down to whatever the arctic opposite of its zenith is (alphanith?)  You can see that this might shove Faboo off the wagon, for, “if you need a reason you can find one,” is a good old buoy motto.

On Saturday Faboo stopped heading the wrong way at midnight, because good old buoys know nothing good happens after midnight, but by breakfast he had only made it down to 86.174°N, when someone suggested a hair-of-the-dog, and it was all wrong way from there, with Faboo up at 86.180°N at the final report. And in terms of heading east he was definately staggering, first west to 11.892°W, then east to 11.858°W, then west to 11.908°W, then east to 11.842°W, and finally west to 11.901°W. All in all it wasn’t such a terrible backslide, only .001° of latitude and .009° of longitude, which works out to 0.09 miles the wrong way. Give the poor old buoy a break.

Temperatures got down to -3.0° at midnight yesterday, and only got up to a high of -0.8°C at the final report. Lake Faboo looks flash frozen, with a bit of drifted snow by the near banks.NP3 1 0823 2015cam1_3However once the sun comes out, and is up at its zenith, it still has the power to melt at the very edge of Lake Faboo, where it hits the banks at a perpendicular angle, even with temperatures still below freezing.NP3 1 0823B 2015cam1_1

This view is more typical of September than August.

SUNDAY EVENING MAPS

DMI2 0823B mslp_latest.big DMI2 0823B temp_latest.big

MONDAY MORNING MAPS

DMI2 0824 mslp_latest.bigDMI2 0824 temp_latest.big

O-BUOY 12 RUNS OUT OF SAILING ROOM

Obuoy 12 0824 webcamIt is a typical Monday morning for O-buoy 12. After a weekend of sailing free, you face a mound of stuff. Don’t you just hate Mondays?

Winds have dropped to calm, and temperatures to -2°C, in the evening twilight over at 160° longitude.

Over at 140° longitude O-buoy 11 looks like it might aim at some clear sailing in the distance, if it can only jostle its way through the ice in the foreground. Winds atr 7 mph and temperatures are a bitter -3°C.Obuoy 11 0824 webcamO-buoys 9 and 10 have obscured lenses, which is also typical of Monday mornings.

MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE

Faboo continued his bohemian antics yesterday, moving the wrong way north-northwest  1.49 miles. He did stop the northward movement at noon up at 86.199°N, as the westward drift persisted, and finished the period at 86.195°N,12.136°W.

This failure to move to Fram Strait is starting to get slightly interesting. Every North Pole Camera I have ever watched gets sucked south, sooner or later, by the Autumnal Gales, and once out of the arctic you can hope to see an extended slush season. However Faboo is so far north and west there is a slight chance it will escape the huge suction down the the coast of Greenland, and be the first North Pole Camera ever to see a second sunrise in the arctic.

We are so far north that thaw is likely toi become rare, as the average temperature this far north starts to crash far below freezing. If we were down in Fram Strait it would be quite a different matter.

Yesterday we saw a high at 0600Z in wan sunshine of -0.4°C, but then it grew gloomy and we experienced our third flash freeze in a row, with a low at 1800Z of -4.1°C. The sun popped out and we ended the period at -1.2°C, but the unoffical Mass Balance reports suggest we couldn’t break freezing. And one must admit the midnight sun is getting very low at midnight.NP3 1 0824 2015cam1_1

The sun is so low that even an above-normal reading can be below freezing.DMI2 0824B meanT_2015

Obviously we cannot hope for melting from above any more, unless the currently zonal pattern becomes abruptly meridianal and allows a huge surge of warm air north. No thawing can come from the sky, yet the “extent” of the ice keeps dropping.DMI2 0824B icecover_current_newIcecover Aug 24 N_stddev_timeseries

How is this possible. It is only possible because ice melts from below. After all, ice must be sitting on warmer water, for it is on water that isn’t frozen. One might even argue the water shouldn’t have frozen in the first place. How can it freeze when it is water sitting in warmer water? Interesting topic, but I don’t want to go there tonight.

The point I wish to make tonight is that the only thing separating the entirety of all the sea-ice from complete melt-down is something called a “phase change.”

By early August all the ice has been warmed to the freezing point from top to bottom, and the water below is warmer and the air above is warmer. Why doesn’t the ice dissolve?

It is because, to turn solid to liquid, you must put it on a stove and add heat. Water can exist at the same temperature as ice, but water holds that added heat from the stove, called “latent heat”.

In like manner, to turn water to ice, you must remove that “latent heat”. It is hard to imagine, but as ice freezes hear is released. When an entire Arctic Ocean freezes, enormous amounts of heat are released,

I’m not sure I can describe how fun it is to think about this stuff. The top of the ice is freezing, and releasing heat, as the bottom of the ice is melting, and sucking up heat.

Unfortunately some over-simplify the complex, and get maps like this, which thrill Alarmists by exaggerating “The Slot.”Ice Extent Aug 24 cryo_latest_small

However I know “The Slot” is not as ice-free as it appears because I’ve sailed those waters via O-buoys, and also the above map shows no ice in Hudson Bay, but the Canadian Ice Service says ice is still there.Hudson Bay Aug 24 CMMBCTCA

Whatever the reasoning was, saying there is no ice where it is was likely plugged into models, and resulted in stupid predictions. I’ll put two side by side below. The first thrilled Skeptics by saying the “extent” would be the highest in years, and the second thrilled Alarmists by saying “extent” would set a record for lowness. The first is from June, and the second is from August.

Sea Ice anomaly forecast June 16 sieMonIce Anomaly Aug 24 sieMon

How stupid both Alarmists and Skeptics are to give credence to such a totally malfunctioning model!  Would anyone give credence to a calculator that only gave you the right answer half of the time?

I prefer my lying eyes, and O-buoys, but as soon as they showed ice in an ice-free zone this morning, they were disallowed access to the satellite that transmits data. I felt paranoid, and figured they wouldn’t be allowed to transmit a picture until the ice was gone. And I was right, but what a mind-boggling picture got shown!

In petty terms, involving Skeptic and Alarmist bickering, this picture shows water can get glassy and reflect sunlight in an open ocean. Big deal. For in other terms this single shot is better than the best painters of surrealism, impressionism, and Realism:

Obuoy 12 0824B webcam

CONCLUSION 

If the above seems a little bad tempered, it is because I deleted had a post I’d worked hours upon, as my computer was freezing up, and for some reason the Auto-save didn’t bother to save it. I still had the pictures, so I just re-did the post in about five minutes, doing a lot of muttering to myself.  It was a bad conclusion to a long day.

Today the computer problems continue, so I suppose I might as well call this post concluded.  I figure the beauty in that final picture is a better conclusion than I could write.

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20 thoughts on “ARCTIC SEA ICE —One Whale Of A Slot—(August 20-24, 2015 — Concluded)

  1. Wow …. look how large the blob / area of below freezing temperatures has become over the past several days. Winter is coming!!
    Another great post 🙂

  2. “As far as I’m concerned, it is required reading for all who wish to pretend they know diddlysquat about sea-ice.”
    ___________
    I’m not pretending…

    (Thanks for reminding me about Tonyb’s research. I’ve seen it before, but it’s time for a “refresher”.)

  3. It appears that Summer here in N. IL has now passed its’ peak and the seasonal change has begun in earnest. After a few weeks of upper 80’s and a very few low 90’s, the temps have crashed with the passing of a cold front a couple of days ago. Low temps forecast for tonight are down near 50F, which is only 20 degrees above freezing. The look of the clouds has changed too. While the West bakes, other places are cooler than normal. This suggests that when averaged, there is really no warming occurring. One other thing I have noticed and have been pondering lately is related to the El Nino. Many tout El Nino as evidence of global warming, but when you look at the Pacific sea surface temperatures, what you see is warming in the East, AND cooling in the West. There have been killing frosts in Papua New Guinea! This also suggests, to me at least, that El Nino is as much evidence of cooling as it is of warming. I posted this comment relating to why parts of Ireland are colder than normal on http://www.iceagenow.info:

    “This may be due to the fact that larger continental areas undergo heating up and cooling down much more readily than smaller Island nations that are surrounded by a buffer of Ocean waters. Which may say something about the current Oceans cycle phases, NAO, and PDO(and ENSO).
    “During El Nino events, deep convection and heat transfer to the troposphere is enhanced over the anomalously warm sea surface temperature, this ENSO-related tropical forcing generates Rossby waves that propagate poleward and eastward and are subsequently refracted back from the pole to the tropics.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

    Then there is the solar lull, which some say adds to the Rossby wave[Jetstream] increased latitudinal variance or amplitude. http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2098/suns-influence?page=7

    Seems to make sense to me as the Solar wind is less energetic and less dense with lower sunspot counts. This may translate to weaker Westerlies, or lesser Zonal flow of the Jetstream. The result of which is greater variation in weather patterns [greater extremes?] directly linked to the N. & S. components [Meridional] of the relatively slow moving [cf. to a strong Zonal flow] Rossby waveforms. With a strong zonal set-up, heat transfer to the poles is impeded, and the result lends to warming, whereas, a meridional flow takes atmospheric heat poleward where it can more readily escape the atmosphere due to the lower altitude of the Tropopause at the poles, and takes cooler polar air equatorward. It may actually be that El Nino events [ENSO] , are a signal of global cooling, and not at all indicative of global warming. The amount of cooling or warming that thus will occur depends on the amplitude (how far S. and N.) of the Meridional(Rossby wave) component of the Jetstream. Both Meridional and Zonal components are always present in the Jetstream, they just take turns being dominant and are sometimes both strong or both weak, which is largely dependent on seasonal changes.”

    I am just a layman sciencewise, but with a strong understanding of Geology and Climate history.
    It appears to me that the El Nino phenomenon is more akin to “separation of charges”, or really a separation of temperatures, having to do with a similarity to the phenomenon of freshwater lakes doing their annual turnover. Just that with the Oceans being so vast, the ‘turnover’ is vastly more complex and spans a much longer time frame than a single year. It’s the strong Meridional component that accounts for the California heat and drought. I understand that this happens regularly, about every 26 years or so. I see that The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a rather brutal Winter ahead, another blow to climate warming alarmism.
    __________________________________________________
    Recently, Cotopaxi volcano in Ecuador has awoken from a 73 year slumber. I looked at the eruption history and observed:
    “…el Cotopaxi ha presentado cinco grandes periodos eruptivos: 1532-1534, 1742-1744, 1766-1768, 1853-1854 y 1877-1880. ”
    source: http://www.igepn.edu.ec/cotopaxi

    Interesting isn’t it, how those dates seem to correspond to the Maunder minimum, and Little Ice-age?
    If Cotopaxi eruptions intensify into another grand period, all bets are off!

      • well. it’s Sep. 3 and we’re having a few days in a row of near 90’s. Ungh, I hope this is the last blast of Summer. I guess my earlier comment was premature, and the different cloud look was only due to a cold front that had passed. But I am looking forward to some nice fall days. 🙂

  4. once again you have excelled in your observations caleb . i am now looking forward to seeing what winter extent does ,it is just a feeling,but i think it will be very different to the winter past .

  5. Judah Cohen on this year’s Arctic melt season

    August 18, 2015 – “Arctic Sea Ice”

    “Arctic sea ice melt continues to melt steadily and one of the lowest minimums observed is all but guaranteed (Figure 8). The persistent negative AO this summer has likely contributed to an acceleration of melting since late June. Predicted continuation of negative AO conditions will likely contribute to further melting right up to the September minimum. A large area of open ocean has developed in the sea ice north of Alaska and Western Canada and will likely result in larger sea ice extent anomalies on the North Pacific side of the Arctic relative to the North Atlantic side leading up to and following the sea ice minimum.”

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Also worth a look is the effect he expects the negative AO to have on European temperatures over the next few weeks.

  6. Caleb u don’t have to look north to get your snow fix … look at what is happening in the mountains to my west http://www.skilouise.com/conditions/mountain-cam.php
    At noon it is 6 C in Calgary and rain, rain, rain. It feels like October with the furnaces running every 15 minutes or so. My poor old body needed a break from the backyard project that I’ve been at so I’m enjoying a day off and some nice hot coffee 🙂

  7. that´s a lot of info. one could leave Enenews for days in order to get through all these datas. A scientist maybe could manage it within 15 minutes. I will take my time, anyway. thnx good site.

  8. this is the last day of summer where the mid arctic (mid point between arctic circle and geographical pole) will see 24 hour sunlight . i only recently came to know this and thought i would share it,sorry if everyone already knew this 🙂

    • Interesting reminder.

      Last year someone shared a website where you could plug in latitude and longitude, and get sunrise, sunset and length of day. It was very handy for things such as finding the edge of 24 hour daylight, and also the 24 hour darkness.

      One thing I’ve noticed about the arctic is that the sun doesn’t warm much at all when it is sitting on the horizon. Often the clear skies that let you see the sun allow more cooling to occur than the sun can counteract.

  9. I recall the arctic day length calculator but know it wasn’t me, though I do remember posting one that converts angular measurements up there to miles and such.

    As always fun to read and informative to boot. Gotta love your summer bursts of internet fame huh?

  10. The frustration of losing something you wrote when the computer messes up is one of modern life’s most annoying happenings …. and it always seems that it is your best ever writings that go missing 😉
    Years ago I worked at a government office in Canada data entering using punch cards and so yes it was the 70’s and on the main frame computer we had a sticker “To err is human, to get things really screwed up requires a computer”. Still applicable today …just look at GLO-BULL warming science and Mickey Mann’s computer games.
    Good thread of posts, thoughts and even the rants were enjoyable.
    Update on my neck of the woods … Calgary is cooking by our standards with a high Tuesday of 27 and cooling down to 12 at night so nice for sleeping but the big news is the stinky smoke blowing our way from forest fires stateside in Idaho (maybe Washington too). It is some of the worst smoke I’ve ever seen and they are warning folks with breathing problems to stay inside …. it looks like those picture of China they show on the news when it is bad. Very annoying but the winds have been perfect for blowing all the smoke our way and it may continue to Saturday. I guess we are all smoking a pack a day for the next several days. Fire must be big but we aren’t getting any coverage of it, just the effects of the fire but where there is big smoke there must be big fire.
    Cheers,
    Stew.

    • One thing that struck me as very ironic was that the news was all about the Ashley Madison hack, and people who were wishing they could get their stuff deleted, but couldn’t. Meanwhile I wanted my deleted stuff back.

      I heard Calgary got some August snow.

      When there was that huge fire in Yellowstone in the late summer of 1988 the smoke came down the Rockies to Gallup, New Mexico, where I lived at the time. Visibility dropped to something like five miles rather than 80 miles, and I imagined I could even smell the smoke, and my eyes itched. So I know a little about what you are going through.

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