LOCAL VIEW —BESIDE BOSTON’S BLIZZARD—(Updated twice)

We only have three feet of snow up here in our hills, which is not all that rare. I know it is getting bad when the snow gets up to the top rail of the garden fence. Ordinarily I only need drive down south fifteen miles or so, to where the “flatlanders” live, and snow depths drop off dramatically. My sister, who lives in Watertown right up the Charles River from Boston, often has bare ground and is amazed when I send her pictures of drifts up to the eves of the barns snow-shedding roof. Not this year. Boston is buried.

Its not really  fair for people who live in areas that have more snow to laugh at people who don’t, when they do. I used to work for a guy who lived by Lake Erie when young, and he would roll his eyes when people in New England exclaimed at snows of over a foot, saying it was merely a flurry, compared to lake-effect snows. (He neglected to mention how localized such snow is, how light and fluffy it is, and how lake-effect snows shut down nearly completely once Lake Erie freezes over.) Furthermore, he muttered and cursed as much as any New Englander when he had to deal with the conditions created by coastal snows.

It is hard enough when dealing with a foot or two, but now Boston has had 80 inches, most of it in the past 21 days. Despite settling and a little thawing there are 4 to 5 feet in places. They are not used to it. It is difficult to prepare for what has not happened in the lifetime on anyone alive.

Now they are expecting another foot, with temperatures at 10° ( -12.2 ° Celsius) and winds that could gust as high as 70 mph. It is a time to hope the forecast is wrong. The city will be shut down if it is correct.

Up in these hills we are basically onlookers. We will be greatly inconvenienced by more snow, but not shut down.

We began this morning with a blast of cold air. Temperatures kept dropping even after the sun rose from 7.9° at 5:00 AM to 1.9° around 8:30. Wind whipped yesterday’s 2 inches around as dazzling clouds of stinging white. And this is just yesterdays storm blowing up, as it moves away far out to sea. The next clipper is expected to blow up nearly on top of us. We shall see.

Right now the low looks very innocent, over South Dakota. It’s pressure is at 1021 mb, which likely makes Europeans chuckle, as they call that high pressure. If the forecast is correct, it could be east of Boston in 48 hours with a pressure of 960 mb.

20150213 satsfc

The radar shows only a small patch of snow out west.

20150213 rad_nat_640x480

This should be fun to watch, but I can only do that if I don’t have to go out in it, so I’d better get to work on my chores. I’ll update when I can.

UPDATE #1 —Brutal cold funeral—

Yesterday’s high was only 8.1°, (-13.3° Celsius), despite a brilliant sun. The wind was cruel, and it was one of the rare days when the children at our Childcare didn’t go outside, despite our focus on the outdoors. I might have taken a few of the more energetic children out for a half hour or so, for I noticed our goats did leave the shelter beneath the barn to wade through the deep snow and eat the ceder shingles off the side of one of our out-buildings, so I knew there were sunny patches out of the wind worth visiting, albeit briefly. However, right in the middle of the day, my dwindling church was hosting a fairly large funeral, for a small town.

It was in some ways an impossible task, as the smarter members of the church are in Florida, either retired or on vacation, and on paper it looked like seven people had to host a funeral three hundred might attend. It was a task we were sort of stuck with, as we are the “community church”, the tiresome Calvinist remnant of the original 150 European settlers, who at one point were the government of the town, and who became so vocal that the rest of the USA took a condescending view and called New England the “Bible Belt” (the same way that people view parts of the American South, today).  Obviously a reaction occurred, as New England now is home of just about the most virulent distaste towards Christianity imaginable, in various liberal guises. (Some would rather take LSD and converse with a chunk of crystal quartz, than put up with a preacher.) Be that as it may, we happen to have a big building, if not a big membership, and this means we have this thing called the “facilities” for a funeral. So we were stuck with the darn job.

The weather was uncooperative, unless some prayer was answered that pushed the last storm out to sea. It took a major effort just to clear the parking lots. Then the wind howled behind that storm, and even though it “missed” us, it whirled clouds of stinging snow about. I found time to zip over to the church in the orange twilight before dawn to shovel the drifts from the doorways, focusing on the handicapped ramp over which the coffin would be rolled. Then, feeling virtuous, I hustled off to open the Childcare. The wind hustled to build a new drift, and then a elderly lady, arriving to work in the kitchen, shoveled away the drift a second time. However when the coffin arrived it bogged down in a third drift, and the guys from the funeral home had to do some swift work. Maybe they put chains on the wheels of their coffin-roller. I don’t know. I wasn’t there.

I showed up briefly after dropping off the gang-of-six at kindergarten, and was amazed at the hive of activity. As a person who was opposed to the draft in the Vietnam war, I am reluctant to draft anyone into any activity, however other church members have no such scruples.  Things got done. Even the programs to be handed out to people entering the church involved work as clocks approached midnight, the night before,  but they were done. I take no credit. I was having a hard time finding time to change into my suit.

The gang-of-six had some choice remarks to make about me being “:dressed funny” when I picked them up from the half-day kindergarten and dropped them off at the Childcare, and they frowned on me for not staying. However I was late to a funeral.

It was great to see our church filled, for a change, and have it be for a good fellow who taught shop at the school for 40 years. Some day I hope to tell how, like a pebble dropped into a small pond, his influence spread out like ripples, and there is fabric on the surface of Mars, amazing glass-walled hotel lobbies with two-story-tall trees growing in them, and lazer technology used by the construction industry, which can be traced back to his shop class. For now, let it suffice to say he was remembered well, got a good “send off”, and we had a “celebration of life”.

Of course, none of that really matters when facing the starkness of death. We can “celebrate life” all we want, but death has a nasty habit of reducing all such banter to absurdity. Especially when a good man wasn’t even seventy years old when he died. Under such duress, perhaps people just need to cry.

Having faced that winter, it was time to change back to my work-clothes and hustle about facing a less important winter. And less important details.  Such as the fact that, if the coming storm doesn’t blow like crazy while dropping only a modest amount of snow, I will have to prop a ladder by sheds and barns and start shoveling roofs. However I am hoping the wind blows the powder snow off those roofs.

The evening maps still showed no storm. Just a little clipper. It is amazing that forecasters can talk of winds gusting to 75 mph in Boston, and 40 mph away from the coast in these hills, when there is basically nothing to see.

20150213B satsfc

20150213B rad_nat_640x480

Temperatures had crashed below zero to -1.6° (-18.7° Celsius), by 9:00 PM.

UPDATE #2  —GRAY MORNING—

I was up briefly a little after midnight to stick some wood in the fire, and noticed temperatures had risen to +1.1°, as a thin overcast slid over. A quick glance at the wee hour maps showed nothing very impressive.

20150214 satsfc

20150214 rad_ne_640x480

I doubt I would be particularly concerned, beyond my usual suspicions about any storms, were in not for the media. Though people like to laugh at the forecasters, in this case they have people who would otherwise be caught off guard very much on guard.

Temperatures  took another nosedive as the patch of clouds slid away and stars shone and I did the sensible thing, which was to go back to bed. They had dropped to -6.9° (-21.6° Celsius) in the dusk before dawn, when a new deck of clouds slid over and turned the day gray.

The radar shows the area of snow to our west expanding, and the map shows the clipper to our northwest a little stronger, but to the layman the maps continue to look fairly innocent. Who would guess a blizzard would be exploding just off the coast in 12 hours? You can see how the fishing fleet, back in the days of sail, might sniff a south wind and decide to dare head out, and be caught. There was one storm that wiped out something like a third of the fleet back in the 1800’s. . And those old-timers knew their weather lore. So perhaps we ought give meteorologists more credit than we do.

Now I’ve got to get cracking. starting by loading up the porch with firewood.

20150214B satsfc20150214B rad_ne_640x480

UPDATE #3 —The first wave—

Very light snow started early, at 9:00 AM, as I hustled to get wood onto the porch. It didn’t show on the radar, but caused consternation. Temperatures had risen fairly swiftly into the teens, and we had a slight south wind, and I suppose were in a vague warm sector of the clipper, though the map showed the warm front to the west. As the snow expanded in the radar it formed two distinct areas, the first passing over us and associated with the warm front, and the decond diving down through northern Virginia and associated with the potential blizzard.

It was the first we had to deal with, as the snow gradually increased. We hit our high temperature of 16.3° as the snow began to thicken, and then the snow seemed to cool things, and temperatures were fairly level, but inching down.

20150214C satsfc

20150214C rad_ec_640x480

It being valentine’s day, my wife and I attempted to squeeze a little romance into the hectic storm preparations, and planned to eat out, after some shopping and a grandson’s basketball game one town away. However as the snow kept getting heavier the game was delayed and the crowd nervous about getting home, it was hard to feel relaxed. In the end we got spooked and skipped eating out and drove home through heavy snow at around 25 mph, getting home shortly before the heavy snow began tapering off, as the first area of snow moved east.

The map shows the storm has dipped down to west southwest  of us, and the second pocket of snow is surprising folk down in Maryland.

20150214D satsfc

20150214D rad_ne_640x480

Now the stars have come out, and if I was a farmer back in the days before a weather bureau I might think the storm had passed, as the winds have shifted around to the northwest. However I might scratch my jaw a little, because it is fifteen degrees warmer than last night, as if a warm front has passed and the cold front hasn’t hit us yet. Also I’d notice my bones ache with the falling pressure.

The temperature has only dropped to 12.2° (-11° Celsius) despite clearing skies and around four inches of fresh powder. So far there has been little wind. The pressure is 29.52 and falling. An old farmer would note that “falling glass” and rumple his brow.

Actually, with the stars out, I think I’ll call this “snow-event” officially over, and call tomorrow’s snow a different event, worthy of a different post.

Back in the 1600’s and in the early 1700’s there were terrible winters where Boston had 26 storms.  I’ve lost count this winter, but by stretching the definition of “snow event” a little we might be able to challenge the record.

LOCAL VIEW —On the Edge of a Legend—(updated thrice with summery)

I’ve seen it worse, up in our hills. We currently only have three feet of snow on the level places, and I remember one time, back around the middle of the 1990’s, when we had four feet and it was only the first week of January, with all the winter before us. One more big storm would have brought us to our knees, but an amazing thaw set in, and the snow shrank away, day after day, without even any helpful rain, until by the end of January there was hardly any left. I felt like someone must have prayed for us.

Unfortunately New England won the Superbowl yet again, and I don’t think anyone is praying for us, these days. We have been too successful and appear greedy. In fact this time Americans outside of New England are likely praying we get our faces rubbed in the snow. When they see pictures like this from Boston they likely guffaw:

Boston 0209_snow_cars

(Picture from Joseph D’Aleo’s excellent blog at “Weatherbell”.)

I really don’t understand why people react to success the way they do. If people were going to be mad at Boston it ought be for something like stealing billions from taxpayers to fund the fiasco called the “Big Dig”. However Americans seem to approve of that sort of sleazy corruption, and vote heartily for the fiasco called “Obama-care”, and subscribe to the fiasco of “green energy”. However when confronted with the old-fashioned work-ethic, and witness a coach like Belichick and a quarterback like Brady toiling year after year to achieve a remarkable success, people suck lemons, and pray the successful slip on the ice and experience discomfiture.

I wouldn’t mind it if it was only Belichick and Brady being made uncomfortable, however I suspect the unkind prayers also include New England fans. People outside New England are disgusted with not only the success of the professional football team, but the professional baseball, hockey, and basketball teams. They have had to suffer the agony of defeat, while we’ve had victory parades, so now they don’t pray we get a break when the weather is bad.

Or that is my explanation for why the bad weather goes on and on. (My explanation may be sheer poppycock, but so is “Global Warming”.)

In any case, we are midst a ordinary bad winter, but are at the edge of a legand. We are at the point where one more storm could bring us to our knees. Up to this point life has been slowed, and the snow is very inconvenient, but we muddle on, and squeak by. One more big storm, and things grind to a complete halt.

We’ve been at this point before, as I say, but the knockout-punch is never delivered.

In 1969 we had bad storms just before and just after the February vacation, and I think I went to school only five days the entire month. I approved of this, and had high hopes a third storm would continue the trend, but rather than a knockout-punch the third storm was rain. I had to go to school the entire month of March.  Alas!

Often I think deep snow creates high pressure, which alters the weather patterns. If this isn’t scientific then it should be. It likely explains, to the pragmatic, the failure of nature to deliver a knock-out punch better than prayer does.

So here we are again. One more storm would be a disaster. We are on the verge.

Will any pity us? Likely not. They will be irritated that, once again, New England gets all the headlines, all the attention, and all the glory. Children in other areas will be green with envy about how much school is cancelled here. Adults will seethe that we take their tax-dollars as we loaf at shelters.

If and when the knockout-punch is delivered, it will be up to bloggers like myself to describe the actual conditions, and to make it clear that getting a knockout-punch isn’t all stars and birdies. It hasn’t been much fun so far, and I can’t imagine another blizzard on Valentines Day will be all candy and roses.

Currently we are facing an innocent-looking Alberta Clipper coming at us from the Dakotas, as a more serious-looking storm slips out to sea, down the coast.

20150210B satsfc

The radar shot makes that clipper look more like it means business.

20150210B rad_nat_640x480

When that clipper gets off the coast of New England it will suck up warm, moist air from the Atlantic, and get big very fast. In a worst case scenario such growth is called “bombogenisis” and the backlash clobbers New England. Currently it looks like the storm will explode a little too late, and it will be Nova Scotia that gets feet of snow. Boston will get “only” 3-6 inches, but howling winds may drift this snow into all low spots, which happen to be the roads people are having a hard time opening up, as it is. Then this clipper will be followed by another, only two days later, which may also explode. Both will drag south extremely cold, sub-zero air in their wakes.

How these two storms behave will determine whether we teeter at the edge of legend, or actually find ourselves living midst a legend.  I’ll update, to tell you how it goes.

We begin with our first sunny afternoon since last week. Temperatures got up to 27.3° in the sunshine, but have sunk to 14.5° at 11:00 PM. (-2.6° to -9.7° Celsius).

UPDATE #1  —LULLED—

It was a gorgeous sunrise, especially as we haven’t seen one for a long time. It tricks you. Abruptly you become aware the sun is up before seven, and doesn’t go down until just after five, and when it is calm it doesn’t matter that the temperature is 3.6° (-15.8 Celsius); you stop gritting your teeth, and your neck stops shrinking down into your jacket like an alarmed turtle. Into the distant recesses of a numbed mind walks the faint memory of an impossible thing called, “Spring”. So you stick out your jaw, a perfect set-up for a sucker-punch.

The rosy hues of the dawn were caught and reflected by an amazing string of huge icicles along the edge of my home. It is proof my house is 250-years-old and has poor insulation. In fact having three feet of snow on the roof makes the house much warmer, while it lasts. The problem is that it melts next to the shingles, trickles down to the eves, and freezes solid when it meets the bitter cold air. This creates a dam, which gradually gets higher and higher, holding more and more water up on the roof, until it finds a single nail hole through the ice-and-water-shield under the shingles, and comes into your house.

I used to teeter up at the edge of the roof, on a freezing cold aluminum ladder, whacking away with a hammer and chisel at the ice, until an abrupt flood would gush out.  The gush had an uncanny way of hitting me in the center of my chest, no matter how clever I tried to be about positioning myself,  and I would go back into the house with a martyred look, but at least the interior leak would stop for a while. At times the water coming out was actually warm, and could grove a channel in the ice-dam for a while, before a new ice dam formed.

Now I just huck small white hockey pucks of calcium chloride up onto the roof, and it usually melts the ice right next to the shingles,  though at times it merely melts more water to run through a nail hole into your house. You have to stay ahead of the snow, or the ice dams get too huge. I learned this the hard way, as the pucks I threw up earlier were used up and washed away, and a giant ice dam resulted in a trickle coming down dead center on my wife’s desk. That got my attention real fast. I threw about ten pucks up there immediately, but at first it just resulted in calcium chloride brine dripping on her desk.

Usually it is only the north side of the house that gives me any problem. The sun keeps the south eves thawed enough to let the water out. However this year I’m not so sure. The icicles are gigantic, over six feet long. If the house tips over I’ll be in trouble, but I figure the icicles will soon reach the ground, and then will serve as props, holding the house up. I want to take a picture before I do anything, but do remember a time years ago that a mass of icicles fell from the eves of an apartment complex and totaled a car.

You can get a good idea of the age of a house, just looking at the size of the icicles at the eves. The newest houses have no icicles at all, but unfortunately are so air-tight tqhat the air within the house can get stale. CO2 levels get high, and trace gases like radioactive radon build up in the basements, and modern woods such as plywood can exude formaldehyde fumes, and moisture can collect and cause mold to grow, filling the air with mold spores. So perhaps a drafty old house isn’t all bad.

I drove to work through a chilled world where all the snow was rose-colored, changing to pumpkin as the sun inched higher, and then as I got out of the truck I noticed something fascinating.

There is a moment in the morning when the sun is shining horizontally across the atmosphere, heating various layers as the rays get lower as the sun ascends, and I’ve often noticed a brief deck of clouds will form and then dissipate, (as a layer is warmed and briefly rises, I suppose). Most beautiful are high decks of cirro-cumulus that form in the summer, especially when they form just before the sun gets down to ground level, though they are also enchanting when they form just after sunrise. The seldom last long, (though they can make you wonder if the forecast for a clear day is incorrect.) However this morning was quite different. It was a low layer of grey cumulous moving in from the east at a high rate of speed, though it was calm at ground level. It lasted only around five minutes, but made me shake my head over the power it revealed. The weather may be lovely, but when I see a east wind that strong, I don’t drop my guard.

The clipper is continuing to dig with the upper air trough. Even when the surface feature looks like it wants to head up to Hudson Bay,  it weakens to the north and reforms to the south. I think we are fortunate that storm off the coast is gobbling up a lot of energy, as I imagine it keeps the clipper weak.

20150211 satsfc

20150211 rad_nat_640x480

UPDATE #2 —FURTHER LULLING—

What a beautiful day it was, with the sun bright and the sky a vivid blue, and very little wind. Temperatures only got up to 18.7° (-7.4° Celsius) but the salted pavements melted under the rays of a sun as high as it is on Halloween, when red leaves are still on the trees and you can still pick hardy kale and Brussels sprouts from the garden. On the south side of maples the sap might even have been stirring, though not a bucket has yet been hung on any tree this year.

The lack of wind puzzled me a little, especially because I saw that fleeting scud of cumulus rushing over from the east this morning. What was that all about? Was it a thin layer of the atmosphere sliding like a single card in a deck? I don’t really know. That morning observation lay in the back of my mind like an undercurrent of shadow, in a day full of sun.

The depth of the snow may have been another undercurrent. Perhaps fellows are not tapping the maples because the buckets would be up at chin level, after the snow melted.

After I’d opened the Childcare and attended to morning chores I headed up to the church to check up on the state of the parking lot, which trashed a fellow deacon’s plow yesterday as he attempted to bulldoze the snow. I was happy to see a third deacon rumbling about in a big, front end loader with a heated cab, doing a wonderful job of clearing the lots and raising ivory mountains of snow around twenty-five feet tall, at the ends.  The power of those machines is amazing, and, combined with the power of the February sun, fostered the illusion we were fighting back against the power of winter.

I myself still have some shoveling to do, but I took a day off from that work and caught up on other stuff.  There are all sorts of chores that get delayed, when you get a lot of snow. Not that I need any help procrastinating. However it does feel good to delight in doing chores you usually feel are humdrum.

There was the usual frenetic chatter about “the next storm”. No longer is it the oncoming clipper, but rather is the following clipper, scheduled to get here on Saturday. Some are talking about another blizzard. However I noticed even those who love to harp upon bad news lacked the usual tension, and failed to tighten their temples to snare-drum rigidity. Instead the honey of sunshine had people relaxing.

My middle son came in with a bemused look, as I worked at my desk, and mentioned he’d never thought about what it must be like to be a small bird, who usually lands on twigs, but now must land on a twig heaped with snow. (Snow can make a twig as thick as a match stick be as thick as your thumb.) I paused, and realized that in my sixty-one years I’d never thought about such a thing. So I asked him, “What do they do?”  He said, “They sort of crash into the branch and bully their way through the snow to the twig by shrugging their shoulders.”

It was that sort of day. We’d had too much of toil, and took time to see the beauty in the details.

The lack of wind continues to surprise me, considering how energetic the maps look. Spruce and hemlock remain loaded with snow, more white than green, looking a bit unreal, too postcard-perfect to be anything other than an artist’s exaggeration.

Temperatures crashed at sunset, but since then the decline has slowed, as clouds from the coming clipper move in from the west. The clipper no longer inspires the worry it generated even 36 hours ago.

20150211B satsfc

They are predicting an inch of snow. I think we can handle that. I’m too tired to stay up to see if it starts before midnight. If it doesn’t, today will be our first day without snow in over a week.

20150211B rad_nat_640x480

UPDATE #3  —Back into the snow globe—

Temperatures bottomed out at 6.3° before slowly rising to 8.1° in the 5:00 AM black before dawn. Not a star was to be seen. By the deep charcoal dusk it was nearly up to 10°, as I headed out to warm up my truck.

I don’t like to bother warming up the truck, because I tend to hurtle out the door at the last possible minute, as I want to extract every possible moment of free time from the morning before the Childcare opens. However that made driving increasingly risky, as often I only had time to scrape the smallest hole in the frosty windshield to see through. My commute is only a mile, but when the windshield is chilled to zero or below, within a hundred yards my breath makes such a fog on the inside of the windshield it is hard to see. Nor is it a steam you can wipe away. It is an icy frost you must scratch frantically scratch away, as friends and neighbors smile and wave back, assuming you are waving a cheerful good morning at them, when you  are desperately trying to see.

As the weather got colder I had to eventually break down and allot a few extra minutes to going out and starting my truck.  There is one point during my short commute where I take a right turn onto the road the Childcare in in, and on my side of the road is often an old friend walking towards me walking his dog. When my view is reduced to a small scratched hole I can’t see to the right when I make that turn, and I figured I was playing a sort of Russian Roulette, and sooner or later I’d hit my friend. That seemed stupid, so I warmed the windshield before starting.

As I walked out today I felt faint moisture on my cheek, and was surprised to see, looking up towards the streetlight, the mist of freezing drizzle swirl. I was surprised because it was only ten degrees. There must have been some sort of warm-layer above, but by the time that mist came to earth it was super cooled. Perhaps you could call it ultra-super-cooled. It froze instantly, as soon as it touched anything. It seemed a very good morning to warm the windshield.

I then learned something interesting about ultra-super-cooked drizzle. Even when your windshield is warm, and even when the drizzle is so faint it barely glazes the road, it instantly freezes on your windshield even when your windshield is warm, except for a tiny spot at the bottom of the screen. It happens within a hundred yards, so I drove to work at a snails pace, and crept around the right turn at around three miles per hour, despite all my good attentions.

Even by the time I arrived at work the drizzle was turning to flakes. By the time I drove my small and rowdy gang of six to kindergarten the flakes were thick.  No adult was making the usual jokes, and instead everyone seemed to have a slightly desperate gleam in their eyes. In what seemed a blink the bare roads were again white, and we were back to winter. People didn’t believe the forecast, which was for a dusting in the morning and an inch in the afternoon, and I confess I double-checked the radar and map.

20150212 rad_nat_640x480

20150212 satsfc

The radar showed a line of snow materialize and pass over right during the morning commute, however it soon passed off the coast, after perhaps a half inch, and then the hills reappeared in the distance, at first as dim ghosts and then as hazy blue mounds. Snowflakes continued to drift about, few and far between, all during the gray day, but the February sun melted the streets black again even through the clouds, as temperatures rose to 27.1° (-2.7 Celsius.)  That seems likely to be the warmest we’ll see for a long time, as the radio began to announce a warning for -15° wind-chills, and sounded ominous about the next clipper, coming on Saturday.

By afternoon the big,fat flakes began again, as if someone had given a snow-globe a shake, and again the roads turned white as we received a swift inch and a half.

20150212b satsfc

20150212B rad_ne_640x480

It was just enough to be a nuisance, and forced me to quickly scrape off the walkways as parents arrived to pick up their kids. The grim looks had returned to faces, and the jokes seemed a bit strained as people gave me the news there was a winter storm watch for the Saturday clipper, with a blizzard warning for coastal areas, including Boston.

The above map shows a small spot of snow over Vermont. It grew to a final line of snow squalls that passed through after dark, as I sat in an adult bible-study with some old friends. We looked out the window at the snow swirling in the floodlights, and shook our heads. While the warning is only for a half foot in our hills, and we will contiue to be midst one-of-the-worst winters, if the forecast for Boston is correct they will once again get more snow than us, and definately be midst their “worst ever”. Even back in the mid 1990’s, when they had a couple winters with around 100 inches of snow, (they have around 80 now), there were periods of melting between the storms, and they didn’t have so much all at once.

Up here the warnings have the crews out with wing plows, attempting to shove the snowbanks away from the roads to make space for the next storm. I had to pull over as far as I could and stop, as I drove home last night, as a plow came rumbling the other way. It made me grumpy, because it means they will make a mess of the entrances and exits of the Childcare, and I’ll have to head out early tomorrow to clean up the mess.

However this “snow event” is over. The stars are out and we had a whopping two inches. Nothing, really, but like a slight jab to a boxer’s chin, a lot of nothings add up.

LOCAL VIEW —A forecast to cringe at—(Updated with storm summery)

The last thing we needed around here last Friday was a forecast of more snow, but apparently we hadn’t learned our lesson, and had snow in the forecast for Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. At that point the weather bureau had compassion, for even though their long-range maps clearly showed further snow on the following Thursday and Friday, they left it out of their long range forecast.

The forecast was enough to make a grown woman stop crying. I don’t think it was my imagination that detected a certain grimness in all expressions, quite unusual for a Friday afternoon. There was a wrench in the works of a weekend, and the wrench was snow.

However at least there was sunshine, as temperatures inched up from -7.6° to 14.9° (-22.2° to -9.5° Celsius), and a very weak impulse moved by to our northwest. There was even a stub of a warm front pointing down in our direction.

.20150206 satsfc

Not that I trusted that stub of a warm front. I’ve often noticed that at the end of a warm front, where you might think the weather would stop, there is a sort of micro-disturbance I call a “stubber”. Perhaps it is some phenomenon associated with the lengthening of the warm front. In any case I noted the radar showing snow out in New York State, and adopted a cynical attitude about the sunshine.  But I could hope that the stub of a warm front meant that, while we might not get a full blown Chinook like they were getting out west in Nebraska and Kansas, at least we might face a night where temperatures didn’t drop below zero.

20150206 rad_nat_640x480

As I left for work I noted one of my front tires looked low on air. When it gets really cold the air in tires contracts, and you often have to add a little, so I stopped in at the local gas station to add some. There was a line of other cars doing the same thing. You don’t often see a line of cars at the local air pump. I noted it down, and thought it would be a good thing to mention in this blog.

Not that I’d have any time for blogging. With all the snow in the forecast I not only had to do my ordinary chores, I had to finish up all the clean-up from the last storm and make ready for the next storm. For example, we’d just about used-up all the firewood on the porch, and also I’d never had time to shovel the snow from the back of my pick-up truck, and it was starting to block the view of my rear-view-mirror.

Having all the extra work made me far more efficient than usual, and I felt a bit smug about how efficient I was being, which I caught myself doing, and tried to slap out of my system. I’ve noticed, in the past,  that as soon as I feel smug, something goes wrong. Call it a superstition if you will. In any case, I hoped I’d caught myself in time, and headed to my truck with an extremely humble expression. Then I noticed the front tire again looked low on air. I couldn’t blame it on contraction, with the temperatures rising, and my humble expression veered towards exasperation. I headed back to the gas station a mile away, but began to feel the truck pull to the right. I stopped, and saw the tire was now nearly on the rim, so I drove the rest of the way slowly, with the tire over in the soft snow at the side of the road, but I was down on the rim as I pulled in to the station.

The fellow at the station told me the tire was no good. He called it “dry rot”, which I knew effected wood but never knew effected rubber. However I suppose it serves me right for being cheap. Rather than buy new tires I often buy the tires from wrecks at the junkyard for only $25.00. This tire was apparently a very old one, though it didn’t look it. The rubber had actually cracked, in the sub-zero cold.

It turned out to be a good thing I haven’t had time to do all my chores, because one reason the heap of snow was so large in the back of my pick-up is because, when I actually broke down and bought new snow tires a fortnight ago…(was that a premonition or what?)…I threw the summer tires in the back of the truck, and simply haven’t had time to get them into the barn at the farm. Unfortunately the fellow at the service station had two other cars up on his lifts, and wouldn’t be able to get to my truck for a couple hours, but the other side of fortune is that my house was only a five minute walk away. I figured I could grab lunch and work on stocking wood on the porch.

I started home in the cold, missing my truck’s heater a little, but also thinking this would be good chance to observe stuff to put in my blog.

My town only has one real sidewalk. (There has been talk for years about putting a second one in on Main Street, but it would involve knocking down the tall stone walls in front of people’s houses, and in one case even moving a house back from the road, so the talk has never become action.) It is a real battle to keep our lone sidewalk open, as it runs along “The Turnpike”, which was a toll road back in the 1800’s, and is now a State Highway. The State Plows rumble by and turn our only sidewalk into a mountain range of snow. Then a fellow from our town road crew squeezes into the minuscule cab of a tiny blue tractor with a snow-blower at its prow, and labors to mine a canyon through the mountain range. I could see him up ahead of me, adroitly and diplomatically maneuvering the chute of the blower so as to enrage as few townsfolk as possible by adding to the snow-piles on their lawns and beside their drives. (You can’t please everyone, especially as some of the piles have become so tall there are mini-avalanches, and snow slides back down into driveways.) Despite his efforts the footing was treacherous, as rather than flat the sidewalk was covered with round spheres of packed snow about the size of baseballs. It was a bit like walking on a cobble beach, and made me feel I must look less than dignified, as I proceeded gyrating like a spastic. However I was in a hurry, and when I’m in a hurry I say to heck with dignity.

As I walked I noted the sky had filled with cumulus and alto cumulus, and suddenly flakes were floating about, though the sun was shining. I decided this was a good thing, as it added to our streak of days with snow. In the future I will not need to mention that by the time I returned and picked my truck up the sky was without a cloud.  Instead I’ll say, “Back in February 2015 it snowed for X straight days.”

I decided snow that falls when the sun is shining, snow that glitters and doesn’t accumulate, is my favorite snow. Who needs the other stuff?

I wasn’t too impressed with the stub of a warm front, as evening came on. It was another afternoon where the children at the Childcare do fine, as long as the bright February sun is shining, but I get cold. I warmed myself by cutting blocks of snow from a snowbank and constructing an igloo. It’s hard, as the snow is dry and doesn’t stick, but the snow doesn’t stick where the Eskimos build theirs. Of course Eskimo’s likely don’t have a hoard of children clambering over what they build. I did manage to complete an arch. (The Romans would be proud of me.) Then the the shadows grew as the sun began blinking from behind the pines, and abruptly the kids weren’t having fun any more. (I noted the ones who skipped afternoon snack got cold first.)  Temperatures were sinking down into the single digits fairly swiftly, and I herded everyone indoors for the final half hour before parents began arriving, all abuzz about the coming snow.

By the time the place was shut up and the animals tended-to and I headed home for supper and a bit of paperwork, temperatures were looking like they might sink below zero again. They were at  3.6° (-15.8° Celsius) by 8:42 PM, when sleep brought his hammer down. As I drifted off I was thinking the old line, “It’s too cold to snow.” The map didn’t show any big storm down the coast, and the radar showed a nation surprising free of snow for February.

20150206B satsfc

20150206B rad_nat_640x480

Toil is an excellent narcotic, and my ordinary insomnia has a hard time raising its head before the hammer of sleep lays it low again, but I did wander down to use the bathroom in the dead of night and note the temperature had not fallen, but risen to 5°. Next thing I knew it was the dusk before dawn, which means I’m late for work, so I adroitly ducked and and dodged the hammer of sleep, staggering downstairs for a coffee, which wakened me enough to realize it was Saturday and I didn’t have to work, but I did note the temperature had risen to 9.1° before staggering back upstairs and letting the hammer of sleep sock me right between the eyes. Next thing I knew I was contently stretching and glancing at the clock, and realizing I’d basically spent twelve hours snoozing. I can’t remember the last time I did that, without the excuse of a fever of 102°. However, like I said, toil is an excellent narcotic, and people not all that far south of here can have no idea of the toil three feet of snow adds to an ordinary life.

However I felt very little self pity. Sleep is a lovely thing, healing many wounds,whether they be physical, emotional, mental or even spiritual, and I’d had twelve solid hours of it. Furthermore, the sun was shining. My body might be a bit creaky, but a couple asprin could deal with that. I launched into the day being very careful to be humble about how amazingly efficient I was, hoping to get so much done I’d have time for this blog.

It has been cold for so long that anything above 20° (-6.7°) feels merciful. I know this sounds ridiculous to people in warmer places,  but warm and cold are relative things. (One time, in India, I saw temperatures drop just below 60° (15.6 Celsius), and people were walking about in woolly hats and scarfs.) In any case, for just a moment around noon temperatures rose above 20° and the sun was still peeking through the thickening clouds. For just a moment it was nice out, before the sun vanished, and even though the temperature rose to 25.7° (3.5° Celsius) it felt colder as the sky grew gray.

The weather bureau was warning that a front would drop over us and then stall for days, and it would snow, snow, snow, for days, but it was hard to take them seriously. A few enormous flakes fell Saturday afternoon, as if warning-shots, but they swiftly turned to smaller and more incidental stuff. I was able to stock my porch up with wood chest high, feeling a little silly to be acting as if a big storm was coming when maps and radar only showed a front.

20150207B satsfc

20150207B rad_nat_640x480

I figured I could take notes, as I worked outside, and use what I observed to write a sonnet, or at least a blog entry. However when I stepped inside, expecting to relax, and sat down at my computer, I got emails that informed me there was no rest for the weary.

Because the forecast was for snow, the guest speaker at our tiny church could not come. As we have no pastor, and as a coin-flip made me “Chairman of the Deaconate”, that meant I had to deliver the “message” at church. So, rather than this blog, I wrote a sermon.

I think it was rather cool. It involved the time roughly 3400 years ago that the “Chosen People” were such losers that the Philistines could walk in take the Arc of the Covenant. However it will likely never be heard, because Sunday morning saw snow falling like gangbusters with nearly 4 inches on the ground, and church was cancelled.

Well, I thought to myself, I can at last work on my blog, but I was wrong.

It turned out a much-loved member of the community, who had taught shop at the high school for over forty years, had perhaps shoveled too much snow, but in any case had passed on at home, of a heart attack.  He was so loved you can expect as many as 300 at his funeral. The problem is that, while everyone expects the community church to “host” a funeral, very few actually attend the church. Thirty have to attend to the details of a funeral involving 300.

So I had to deal with that, today, as well as snow-blow six inches of snow from my farm-childcare’s entrances, exits, and parking lot. Only now, late on Sunday, do I finally have time to work on my blog.

They have already cancelled school tomorrow, but as far as I can see there is no big storm on the map.

20150208 satsfc

In terms of snowfall, it has nearly stopped, as radar shows a “hole” appearing over southern New Hampshire.

20150208 rad_ne_640x480

Temperatures have fallen slowly but steadily all day, from 21.2° at around 5:00 AM to 9° late Sunday night.

All in all, I’d say that, for all the fuss and hoopla about this snow, six inches is no big deal. When I look out the window I see that, while the snowbanks are indeed large, so far we only match other rough winters. The snow doesn’t yet surpass other winters I can remember.

There are far rougher things to deal with than six inches of snow. One is for me to try to act like a pastor, when I am not. To be a pastor you need to be gifted with eyebrows that are low towards the temple and rise up sympathetically to the bridge of the nose. My eyebrows are all wrong: High on the outside and dipping down towards the middle.

But a guy’s got to do what a guy has got to do, so I went and met a widow today, rather than working on this blog. And I swiftly understood a widow also has things to deal with far rougher than six inches of snow.

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

We only had an extra inch overnight, which is fine with me. The map shows the front may be finally come together and form an actual storm, while the radar shows heavier snow to our west. The temperature has remained level all night, and stands at 9.3°.

20150209 satsfc 20150209 rad_ec_640x480

So on we go, into another week. I’m off to the farm-childcare, because I imagine the exits and entrances have been blocked by plows.

UPDATE AND STORM SUMMERY

We’d actually had three inches over night, with another inch in a burst as I started snow-blowing. I could rip along in third gear until I came to the entrances and exits, where the plows had erected a mountain of packed powder up to two feet tall, and six to ten feet wide. It is annoying, but they cannot help it. The tall banks at the side of the road are up against stone walls and trees, and so the snow tends to be pushed ahead rather than sideways, until they get to a nice, clean driveway, and then it all goes sideways. You just have to grin and bear it, and clean it up.

The snow was fairly light all day, as we seemed in a sort of “snow hole” downwind from the Berkshires of Massachusetts and the Green Mountains of Vermont. The waves of snow came from the west, (different from a coastal storm where they come from the north, north-east or east), and often disappeared from the radar, though the fine flakes still fell.

20150209B rad_ne_640x480

Temperatures remained cold, rising from 9.1° only to 15.6° (-12.7° to -9.1 Celsius). We only had a little over an inch, but plows deposited another foot in the entrances and exits.

The storm seemed to be shifting a lot of its energy south to a final low moving through Maryland. It seemed the snow was ending. After dark temperatures stayed level, dipping only to 14.5° (-9.2° Celsius).

As it grew dark I noticed a little sleet was mixed in, despite the cold. I suppose that bit of warm air aloft was all we’ll see of the major Chinook that occurred out west, giving a town in Kansas readings of 80° (26.7° Celsius) on Saturday. That was followed by some big, fat snow flakes, which often happens when snow is about to end.

20150209B satsfc

I awoke after midnight, and before going back to sleep noticed it was still  snowing. That keeps our streak of days-with-snow going through Tuesday.  By dawn it had stopped, but still was cloudy. The radar showed the energy had headed south to Cape Hatteras. Ordinarily this would worry me, but instead all eyes were on the clipper plunging through the Dakotas.  “Accuweather” had a graphic showing it becoming another blizzard for Boston on Friday, which freaked everyone out. (This radar doesn’t show it, but a small pocket of snow was still falling in Boston’s western suburbs this morning.)

20150210 rad_nat_640x480

The map showed the storm to our south in a worrisome position, but slipping out to sea, even as the next storm approached from the west.  When I got to work I discovered another 2 inches had fallen overnight, and plows had placed another foot in the entrances and exits. Besides clearing up that mess, I snow-blowed the various paths in the playground which allow the kids to run, and not just wallow.

20150210 satsfc

As the morning passed the sun finally appeared, and temperatures rose from 14.9° at dawn to 27.3°, (-9.5° to -2.6° Celsius), which actually felt quite mild. The bright sun was able to get the salt working on the streets, and bare tar appeared on the state highway, and even on spots of the side roads.

I managed to get away to check the parking lot at the church, and found the fellows busily shoveling, as a snow-blower had broken down and the plow had snapped a strut. I tried to be helpful, and find someone who could come and weld the strut, but only succeeded in getting another good fellow with a shovel. Just about the only good news was that “Accuweather” had revised it forecast from a blizzard to 1-3 inches. (“Weatherbell” was being a bit non-committal.) It will be rough to be ready for a funeral at our church on Friday. However I had to hurry back to work.

At the Childcare the children were having a blast running about the paths I’d made with my snow-blower in the playground. In the center of the playground I’ve gone around and around in a spiral, aiming the chute to a place in the center, and now have a mound six feet tall and ten feet across.  The children have a worm-hole through it, and various slides down the sides. (I plan to carve an igloo out of it, if I ever have the time,) The sky was blue and the temperatures kindly for winter, and there was no wind. Not one child asked to go inside even as the sun sank.

The sunny afternoon didn’t prevent the plows from coming by a final time, just as parents were picking up their children in the evening, and putting another foot in our exit. One young mother couldn’t get over it, but fortunately we could back her up, and then a young father with a plow dropped his plow as he departed and pushed all the snow back out into the street and down the road, and the mother was able to depart.

It was clear at twilight, and temperatures were dropping as night fell, so I guess we can call this snow-event over. Just adding all the amounts I’ve blown from the parking lot, we got fifteen inches.

All eyes are now looking west to the next clipper. It doesn’t look all that impressive on the map, and in fact I’d ordinarily be more focused on the bigger storm off the coast of the Carolinas.

20150210B satsfc

However something about the look of the radar shot makes me think my next post may have some howling winds. The one good thing about the last snow was that there was no wind and no drifting. Even if we got only an inch with the next storm, because all the snow around is powder, strong winds could make a mess of things.

20150210B rad_nat_640x480

It is far worse down in Boston.

Boston 0209_snow_cars

LOCAL VIEW —Oh No! Mo’ Snow! (Updated thrice) (With storm-summary)

It was down to -7.8°(-22,1 Celsius) as the sun first peeked over the horizon this morning to see what we humans were up to. It wasn’t a quiet dawn, as the drone of snow-blowers sounded from every direction. There was over a foot of powder to clear up, however powder snow is the easiest, and here and there streams of white arched in the landscape, as people hurried to assuage unforgiving bosses and avoid being late to work.  I’d done most of my clean-up yesterday, and only had to snow-blow the mounds the plows push back into the entrance and exit of the Childcare. However I was stiff and sore from the work, and that gives me plenty to grouch about, when I should be counting my blessings.

One thing to grouch about is the piles the plows push back into your driveway, or the neighbors surreptitiously arch in the road in front of your drive, so the plows push it onto your drive and not theirs. With between two and three feet of snow on the level,  we are starting to reach the point where people develop a chess-like strategy regarding the placement of the white stuff.

Another thing to grouch about is the fact teachers don’t seem to need to assuage their bosses, who are parents, on paper at least. They often are parents themselves, so they ought understand how it deranges a day to cancel school, and how the workplaces of taxpayers are rendered chaotic when employees can’t come in because their children are home, or, as often is the case, drag a child or two to work with them. However the real focus of most teachers seems to be to avoid having school cancelled too many times, for that would mean they’d have to work make-up days in the summer. To avoid that, they, (or their superintendent),  more and more often resorts to the “two-hour-delay”, which counts as a full day of school yet involves all the derangement of a no-school-day.

For some reason I couldn’t grouch properly. My first cup of coffee didn’t work. Perhaps my old body was simply too weary, but my brain felt so stupid I could hardly think. The roar of my snow-blower, which I’ve heard way too much recently,  stuffed my ears, and my head felt like it was stuffed in some pocket of wool: Hat and scarf and hood. All that was left was my eyes, peering mutely about as I worked. Perhaps that was the reason I found myself paying so much attention to the way the colors changed as the full moon sank and the sun arose. The snow never once was white. It shifted from blue moonlight to a muted green with blue shadows, as green twilight first blushed in the east, and then that became a muted pink with blue shadows as the twilight turned ruddy, and then the snow was suddenly salmon, as the sun peeked over the distant pines, and then faded through a spectrum of pastel hues, ending with a pale butter yellow.  The snow may have become white after that, but I was back home for my second coffee, and studying the maps. (Click to enlarge.)

20150203 satsfc

The forecasters are as weary as everyone else, though they don’t have to shovel, because they have been so wrong lately. You can be more correct if you add a half foot to their forecast of snow and subtract seven degrees from their forecast nighttime lows. I distrusted their forecast for “snow showers” on Wednesday night and Thursday, because the map looks a little like the map before the last storm. Hope notices the arctic high pressure is further south, but pessimism notices there is much more “juice” in the southern stream, down around Texas.

20150203 rad_nat_640x480

I didn’t have time to dwell on the maps, because the phone rang. It was the Childcare. The heat was off. So I drove the mile back, and discovered the deep snow was starting to drift over the exit vent of the propane heater. I think it is wonderful that the modern heaters achieve such amazing efficiency that you don’t need a chimney, and that the outflow warms the inflow by surrounding the inflow’s smaller pipe, but when it gets down below zero the air exiting the pipe is so cool it can’t even melt the snow faster than it drifts, (and is shed by our snow-shedding roof). So all I had to do was scoop snow away from that vent, and everything was fixed, and I was a hero (in my own mind).

Since I was already there, I figured I might as well snow-blow a path across the playground, and out to the campfire in the pasture. The schools won’t even allow children outside when temperatures drop below 20° (-7° Celsius), but our Childcare focuses on the outdoors, and the children often clamor to go out when it is cold. However snow above my knees is snow up to their waists, so I find it is helpful to snow-blow some paths. After I’m done the main route out to the pasture and sledding hill, I go back to the playground and create curving paths that make a sort of maze. I also create a mound of snow by spiraling out and directing the chute to the center of the spiral. (I should take before and after pictures, because all the paths are cut neat and tidy before the children stampede out, but they can never resist leaving the paths to flounder a bit on the deeper snow, and the scene is one of devastation after an hour.)

I had cut all these paths after the blizzard, but as I looked out the playground appeared completely flat. Between two inches on Friday, howling winds on Saturday, and around 14 inches on Monday with lesser winds, all my work had been erased. Here and there you could see a faint trace of what had been a deep cut, and the mound in the center of the spiral still poked up, but everything else had to be redone. I tried to follow the old routes from memory, but the only real gauge I had was how the snow-blower strained in the deep snow. When it strained harder I knew I was off the path.

The snow was now definitely white in the brilliant February sun, which is so obviously higher than December’s, and has a surprising amount of warmth, even when the thermometer argues it is barely above zero.

I could tell when the temperature was above ten, for the salt suddenly started working on the roads. Below that the salt might as well be more snow, for all the power it has to melt. The streets remain white and snow packed, and the porthole road seems surprisingly smooth, until suddenly the salt starts working, and the white roads turn to brown slush, and even become bare on the bigger highways. This reminded me of arctic sea-ice, for up at the Pole it is so cold now that salt drifts with the snow atop the frozen seawater,  but in June the salt abruptly has the power to melt up there. It did make me feel a bit warmer to think of spring, and the sap first stirring in our sugar maples, but I had no time to post.

After lunch I had to hustle about at home, doing more shoveling. In a storm you do the bare minimum, but between storms you need to square off edges and clear paths to places you don’t go in a storm, for example to the propane tank and woodpile. Also it has been so windy snow sifted onto protected porches that are usually bare. And if you don’t carve a nitch and uncover your mailbox they won’t deliver your mail.

Then it was time to get back to the Childcare and greet the children as they awoke from their naps. I’ve gotten very good over the years at the strange skill of dressing a small mob in snowsuits and mittens. They rushed out and were all having a blast, though the day’s high was only 17.1° (-8.3 Celsius), and when the bus came the kids getting off were even more eager to play outside, after being kept indoors all day. There wasn’t a single complaint, but to me it seemed strangely colder. I always keep a careful eye on the children’s cheeks, alert for the rosy hue developing a purple tinge. I noticed the children gathered in a sunny, southwest-facing corner of the buildings,  even before the sun touched the pines and sent long shadows across the field, and then, even as I was starting to note the purplish tinge on one girl’s cheeks and thinking they ought go in, there was a spontaneous mutiny. All at once, there was an incredible chorus of whining, “I’m cold! I want to go in!”

Usually we stay out, as a member of the staff has been inside scrubbing and vacuuming and disinfecting and getting the place ready for the next day, and the last ting the place needs is a bunch of wet, snow-covered children messing it up all over again. However something about the way the air felt and the way the kids acted made me not even hesitate. We all went in and made a mess.

I was wondering what the difference was. It has been colder, even with wind, and the kids have not been troubled the least. What I think the difference was involved the dew point. When I got home I heard the weather radio inform me what the temperatures of nearby cities were, at 5:00, just as the sun set, and they had temperatures warmed by the urban-heat-island effect to just above 20°, but dew points down near zero. As soon as the sun set temperatures plunged.

The maps didn’t make me feel much hope we’d avoid more snow.

20150203B satsfc

The question is whether that northern-branch Alberta Clipper over Nebraska will scoop up the southern-branch low in the Gulf of Mexico south of Texas, and “phase” with it. I don’t see how they can help it, with that big high pressure in the way. Then the question becomes whether the storm will head out to sea south of us. The weather bureau seems to think it will bomb out to our south and miss us, as their main emphasis is on how cold it will be after the storm passes, but I did notice they are altering their language, and rather than speaking of “snow showers” they now speak of “snow” on Thursday. (Without stating whether it will be “light” or not.) Subtle.

20150203B rad_nat_640x480

NEXT MORNING UPDATE: Temperatures may have crashed below zero before midnight, but a light overcast brought a halo to the moon, when insomia awoke me just after midnight, and the temperature was 0.8°.  I’d crashed very early, around eight, but the last thing my wife mentioned as I drifted off, unable to make sense of even the first sentence of a bedside book, was that the heater had kicked off again at the Childcare, for no reason she could see. It had started again without trouble, but she thought I should know. Insomnia can use a thing like that to keep you awake, so I dressed and headed to the Childcare in the dead of night, to make sure it hadn’t kicked off again, and pipes weren’t freezing. It was running just fine, but I took the opportunity to just stand in the yard and enjoy the moonlight.

It was amazingly and absolutely quiet. No distant scraping plows, no droning snow-blowers. Not even an owl.  It was as if the entire world was worn out after the storm, and sleeping, as a big moon cruised across a silent sky, seeming to smile and be playful, with its hoop a huge halo.

Now I’m up again and the temperature is up to 7.9° (-13.4° Celsius), at 4:30.  The map still holds some threat, but at least it looks like the first clipper may miss the connection with the Gulf of Mexico moisture. We might only get “snow showers” after all.

20150204 satsfc

The problem is that second low back over Utah. It is in some ways what is left of a Pacific storm, after “morphisticatin” crossing the Rocky Mountains. In fact I recall the old-school weathermen differentiated between “Alberta Clippers” and “Mountain Lows.” I suppose you could call it a “Colorado Clipper”, but it looks likely to catch up with that Gulf of Mexico moisture, and brew a storm up as it gets to the east coast. With the Atlantic so warm, relative to normal, it could get big before heading out to sea.

20150204 rad_nat_640x480

Right now our winter is snowy, but still in the range of a “normal” winter. One more snow will tip us into the realm of major inconvenience.  It is all well and good to talk about a legendary winter from a summer armchair, but quite a different thing to endure it.

NEXT EVENING UPDATE: The first impulse pushed through this morning as a dazzling snow with the sun shining, falling from a pale blue sky made milky by the snow, dappled with sliding alto-cumulus. Temperatures rose slowly but steadily all day to a mid-afternoon 27° (-2.8 Celsius), and then, after hesitating and dithering, continued to creep upwards even as night fell to the current high of 29.8° (-1.2° Celsius) at 10:00 PM.

The map should be showing a warm front close to, and parallel to, the approaching cold front. Or so I feel.

20150204B satsfc

The southern moisture still hasn’t moved north and been combined to “phase” with the northern impulse, however it seems some modified Chinook-Pacific air has streamed east along the south side of the cold front, running into a stale arctic high on one side and a fresh arctic high on the other. It is almost an occlusion, a sort of tube of milder air streaming east as a long band of snow.

20150204B rad_nat_640x480

In the above radar shot you can see a slight southward bump on the eastern edge of the snow, and in the more-recent close-up below you can see a second band of snow formed ahead of the first, and the two bands come together just to my west. 20150204C rad_ec_640x480

It looks like if I wait five minutes it will be here, so let’s wait. (Dum-de dum-dum da-da-dum-dum)

Sure enough, I just went out onto the porch and it is snowing like gang-busters. The street is white, the windshields are white, all man’s efforts to undo the winter’s work are being undone.

I’m not yet tired of this, as it is sort of neat to be midst what may become a winter of lore. However I confess my body is getting tired. When I was cutting blocks of packed powder, and starting an igloo I build for the kids at the Childcare nearly every year, I’d only cut six blocks when I noticed my arms felt like wet noodles. My old body feels like it is running out of gas, and I was very glad to see my middle son had split some wood for me and stacked it up on the porch when I got home from work. I don’t much like the prospect of needing to run the snow-blower again tomorrow morning, so I hope this snow is a quick passing thump, a swift inch which is just as swiftly over and done.

The snow now falling is utterly different from this morning’s, which was a dazzle in sunshine. This is a dump in darkness. However the trick is to see each has its beauty, and to marvel at the variety. In this manner, though winter wearies the body, it invigorates the mind.

I’d surrender to winter but winter
Doesn’t want me. I’d wave a white flag
But the white will wave back. Torture-splinter
Under nails, that’s the mercy that will drag
Me as a carcass for the crows, if I bow
To the attack. So instead I’ll enjoy
The beauty of the beast, see poems in how
Snow’s heaped as crystal sparks, and employ
A poem’s yeast to make bread that taunts famine.
Sweet revenge I’ll then have on cruel frost.
He who builds dams for up-streaming salmon,
And heaps fresh losses on the weeping lost,
Will see I am his cold snow enjoying
And therefore bring sweet spring’s snow-destroying.

ANOTHER MORNING UPDATE  There are three inches of fluff outside, with the fat flakes still falling. So I am off to blow snow. Temperature is a mild 29.7° (-1.3° Celsius) but there are wind-chill advisories for -20° (-29° Celsius) only twelve hours from now.

20150205 satsfc 20150205 rad_ne_640x480

EVENING UPDATE AND STORM-SUMMERY

The northern branch feature and southern branch feature have moved off the coast without ever truly combining and “phasing” into a proper gale center. They look like they are still in the process of the merge, and likely will get their acts together and bomb into a big gale up to the northeast, by Labrador or Greenland.

20150205B satsfc

20150205C satsfc

You might think we escaped with a mere nuisance-snow, but the radar showed the snow was thick as it passed., even as it never sucked up the “juice” to the south. It left us with more than a nuisance, as it headed out to sea.

20150205B rad_ec_640x480

20150205C rad_ne_640x480_05

All in all we got half a foot, which isn’t much ordinarily, but when you already have roughly three feet, (Or roughly four feet, if you live on the other side of Manchester where Joseph D’Aleo reports from), and when the forecast is for only a quarter foot, it makes a surprising mess of things, especially when the superintendent of schools bases his judgement on a forecast and doesn’t walk outdoors and sniff the air, and concludes that rather than cancelling school there should be a two-hour-delay. The resultant mess on the highways is best described as a “fracas”,  which is a sort of frowning “circus”.

Even glancing out through the whirling white in the dark before dawn I could see the snow had gotten so deep it was starting to cover the hastily and poorly placed sensor of my Christmas thermometer, and I didn’t have time to rush out and wallow across the yard to scoop the snow away, and therefore I’m only guessing that the high was actually 29.7° (-1.7 Celsius), before dawn. However as I hurried to to work I could already see the sticky snow was turning dry and powdery, and when I paused at the market I could see the plow-operators, (who were the only people there) had weary eyes turning from white to bloodshot. It was looking next to impossible to clear the streets for the school buses, with the snow whirling and falling at an inch-an-hour rate.

The streets were a mess. Though heavily salted, the salt had no effect when temperatures remained below 10° (-12° Celsius). The snow and salt was packed down into a squeaky surface that had decent traction, and built up to a degree where you found yourself stepping down into places you usually stepped up into, which suggests the packed powder was getting thick. However as soon as temperatures rose above 10° the salt started working, and packed surfaces turned to a strange, dry slush. It might have melted more, but the spike in temperatures was brief. Also the pavement beneath the packed snow was likely chilled to near zero (-18° Celsius). In any case, even if hadn’t snowed a flake, the rise in temperatures turned smooth packed streets into brown, rutted messes, and the mess would have needed to be plowed aside.

But it had snowed, and still was snowing vigorously, and the brown surface grew tan and then the color of overly creamed coffee, as plowing-vehicles churned around, attempting to make the mess ready for school opening two-hours-late. For every truck actually plowing the roads there were fifteen guys with plows on their pickups, attempting to plow driveways before heading off to their day-jobs. And one odd thing about these guys is that, when they plow a drive, a fair amount of the snow they push about winds up back on the street.

You would have thought we had at least a foot, the roads were so rutted as I drove to work, but when I started my snow-blower, (the electric starter only whined, but the pull-cord miraculously started it, on the sixteenth pull), I found I could operate the machine at third gear, walking briskly behind it, for at that point we’d only had five inches. I only needed to slow at the street, dealing with the brown slush. Soon the entrance and parking lot and exit of my Childcare was the cleanest side-road in town. However my brow was furrowed with worry when I looked out on the street, and saw the deep ruts, and knew plows would eventually pass and plug my entrance and exit. But, after a swift greeting of a few parents and some swift instructions to my staff, I headed off to my dentist, nearly twenty miles away.

It’s my fourth and last visit of the young year, and will just about bankrupt me, as Obama-care is useless in my case. I like to be presentable, but looked like someone who was up before dawn shoveling. I like to be on time, but got stuck behind a young mother with a van full of kids, apparently slithering along on bald tires, and I had to drive at 15 mph for seven miles. I expected to be in the doghouse when I arrived fifteen minutes late. Instead I turned up to be the only customer who had the courtesy to show up, and the entire staff doted on me.

In any case, I can chew again, and headed home through thinning flakes and surprisingly improved roads, past amazingly blocked driveways. When I got back to the farm-childcare I barely made it through the huge brown wall in the entrance plows had helpfully erected. Once in the drive, I drove easily to my parking place, and was confronted by a goat.

Goats hate walking through deep snow, beneath which they don’t know what their feet will come down upon, but Beulah had waded through chest-deep snow to nag at me. (Goats don’t baa; they nag.) So I fed her and the others, and the nagging chickens, and the patient rabbit, and then headed in to the Childcare to get nagged some more. A member of the staff had the flu’, and I needed to both care fore children and clear the entrance and exit of the Childcare.  Don’t ask me how I did it. It’s amazing what you can do if you have to.

(One law states you can’t leave children unattended, while another states if the entrance of your Childcare is impassable, you need to close down. What would you do?)

As I chugged about pushing the snow-blower in low gear, removing the heavy, brown, and oddly dry sludge from the entrance and exit, I could feel the cold intensifying. The wind was starting to whip about whirlwinds of powder. The clouds faded to the east and the sun shone brilliantly, but the cold kept increasing. By the time the sun dipped behind the pines the wind was so cruel I moved all the kids inside.

And now, as I look at my Christmas thermometer, (which has been cleared of snow), I see we are dipping below zero at ten o’clock. Where we spent 24 hours on Tuesday with temperatures rising, we are now midst 24 hours with temperatures falling.

Just as the forecast was for a quarter foot, and we got a half foot, I expect temperatures will plunge below the forecast of “four above to four below”. At this rate we will be sinking past four below by midnight. The poor forecasters are slaves to computers that just can’t fathom the fierceness of this February.

People south of here have no idea what we are going through. As a weather geek, I hear weather nerds complaining they haven’t had enough snow, and the cold predicted by the computers never happens.  Down around Washington DC the nerds are complaining they’ve had no winter.

I’d be glad to export our conditions, and usually I could expect it to happen. In the past I’ve seen deep snow create, or attract, cold high pressure, which ends a snowy time and shunts storms south of New England.

I’m actually expecting this to happen, but the computers are not seeing it yet. Instead they see a single sunny day tomorrow, and then increasing clouds Saturday with snow late, and then snow on Sunday, snow on Monday, snow on Tuesday…

Oh No! Mo’ Snow!

LOCAL VIEW —Super bowled over—

Sunday was a needed break in the middle of a battle with snow. I suppose I could have taken care of the drifting that Saturday’s nasty wind blew into our Farm-childcare’s parking lot, but chose to procrastinate, justifying my procrastination by telling myself I’d have to snow-blow fresh snow first thing Monday morning anyway, and I might as well kill two birds with one stone. (I was sorry I made this choice, first thing Monday morning, when an employee drove her car into into one of these starchy, shallow drifts, hidden under the new fluff, and her all-wheel-drive car got stuck like a dart in a cork dartboard, making extra work for me, but I didn’t know this yet.)

I wish I could say I was honoring my Maker by obeying the commandment about keeping the Sabbath holy, but the truth is I was loafing, and even if the rest was needed and healing, it seems uppity to adopt a holier-than-thou attitude about loafing.

Not that I didn’t justify loafing as a boy, about playing hooky. In a very real way fishing was more like worship, and had more to do with appreciating God’s beauty and joy, than Algebra class, but the authorities didn’t want to hear my logic, (though they used the same logic when they chose playing golf over church). The only person who bothered listen to my logic was my best buddy (who is partly encapsulated in the character “Durf” in the novel I’m working on), and he was only agreeable because he was playing hooky with me, and was in just as much trouble as I was.

I’ll get in trouble for saying this, but I don’t think Sunday, as a Day of Rest, should be like a spoonful of cod-liver oil.  It shouldn’t be like discipline; it should be like goofing off. We get quite enough of discipline, when reality involves snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm, and what we need is a bit of time to think about the Creator, rather than the Creation.

That is the whole idea behind going to church on Sunday. It is a time you get to goof off a little. It doesn’t matter if you are obeying Hebrew discipline or Christian discipline or Islamic discipline, the point of the law is to put the Creator ahead of the Creation, or, in other words, to goof off.

Muslims have the good sense to goof off seven times a day. However they encumber this good sense with prayer mats they have to roll out. I myself need no such rigmarole, and often pray more often than seven times, and, back before I was self employed,  my employers never thanked me for it.  Instead, when I paused midst the assembly line, and gazed out the window at clouds, and contemplate the majesty, the glory, and the poetry of of the One who created such clouds, I tended to get fired, Why? I suppose it was because because the assembly line ground to a halt as a big pile of product heaped up in front of me. In the same manner, if I lived in an Islamic culture, I’d be in trouble because I’d forget to roll out my prayer mat in the proper way at the proper time.

I am miles off my point, but there is a fascinating part of Christian scripture where Saint Paul discusses this perplexing spiritual ambiguity. (Romans, chapter 15.) In a nutshell, he hints that those who obey rules are “weak”, when they eat the right foods and pray at the right times on the right days, while the “strong” don’t need rules and regulations, and rather are free. (Hippies often quoted this chapter, when they wanted to justify unwise behavior.)

To return to the subject, Sunday was a wonderful break in our war with snow.  The cruel wind died down, as temperatures recovered from a low of -4.0° to a high of 21.2° (-20° to -6° Celsius). The sun was bright in a sky dotted with friendly cumulus. The last thing I wanted, with my body aching, was any sort of extra work. I wanted to loaf. The last thing I needed was all the work and discipline involved with “Superbowl Sunday”.

Memo to people in the future: “Superbowl Sunday” was this weird discipline inflicted upon a secular society, where everyone had to work like mad filling dishes with delicious snacks, and then huddle around a TV set, often with a huge screen, and watch full grown men run about chasing a silly ball, or the man who held the silly ball.

As usual, I loafed. My wife had to cover for me, because I didn’t prepare a single dish, (unless you include food for my chickens, rabbit and goats). Instead I sat about and blabbed with an old preacher, who had a wonderfully refreshing attitude about the failures of religion.

Twenty-five years ago our church began to grow, and achieved a congregation of over 200 before problems arose, and the congregation crashed to 125. To deal with the problems we asked an expert to come, and it was this fellow, back when he was younger. He had taken all sorts of classes in divinity school, and also all sorts of classes in crisis management, problem-solving, psychology, and peace-making. He stabilized the crisis.

After he departed the crash resumed, until we are now an echoing church with a congregation of 40. We had to reduce the number of committees, because we were in danger of having more committees than members. So desperate was the situation that I not only was asked to be a member of the Deaconate, but, (due to the cruelty of a coin-flip), am now the “Chairman of the Deaconate”, which was not a fate my mother ever dreamed could befall the likes of me.

We can no longer afford a pastor, but can afford guest-speakers, and invited this fellow back. He is reluctantly joining the ranks of the elderly, because is mind is vibrantly young. One of the first things he told us, as a guest speaker, was that all he learned about crisis management, problem-solving, psychology, and peace-making was helpful, but not what really mattered. It was an accessory to what mattered. What mattered was what mattered to the Creator.

Hmm. Interesting. Talking to this fellow seemed more like fun than the Superbowl. So we had lunch together after church with our wives. It was wonderful, and a bit like playing hooky with my boyhood’s best friend (who I partly encapsulate and call “Durf” in the novel I’m working on). It was a lunch free of discipline, and relaxed, as loafing should be. Even after I’d payed the tab and tip, and more disciplined people would politely leave the table, we continued loafing for a half hour. However all good things must end, and we had to leave to go watch the Superbowl.

The Superbowl was amazing, for there was no loafing. It involved superbly disciplined people, running about chasing a silly ball. It was the best game I’ve ever seen, and in the end involved such an equipoise that the extra effort of a single individual changed the entirety. The athletes of both teams deserve congratulations and gratitude.

It was odd, afterwards, to hear the amazing focus made from who “won”.  The winning team’s quarterback wasn’t even on the field when the hero stepped from obscurity to make the game-winning play, but the fact the quarterback was now a “winner” made a giant difference in how he would been seen, and remembered.

Absurd. But that is the way of the world. The focus is too much on Creation, and not enough on the Creator. All these amazing athletes demonstrate the results of amazing discipline, and all anyone cares about is some gaudy trophy. If the arthlete gets no trophy, and is a “loser”, all that was beautiful is forgotten, except by people like me.

Not that I don’t suffer when a “loser” and don’t gloat when a “winner”, but some part of me is awakening, and sees that sort of stuff doesn’t matter. What matters is how you play the game, as you face snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm.

The gloating parade for the winners had to be cancelled, in Boston, today, as the next storm hit. Up here in the hills of southern New Hampshire it was time to get back to work, and keep my Farm-childcare open, even as the local schools were cancelled.

I had to snow-blow all the entrances and exits and lots twice, both in the morning as people arrived to drop off children and in the evening as they picked their children up. It was a long time of plodding, but I didn’t forget to look around and see how amazingly beautiful a snowbound world is, and make a church out of work.

It was cold, a single-digit day, as the high temperature was only 9.7° (-12.4 Celsius).

The storm was unusual, as it didn’t dip south and then come back north, but rolled east to west in a way that gave ten inches to both Chicago and parts of New York City. Usually one gets the snow and the other doesn’t, but this storm gave snow to both.

20150201 rad_nat_640x480 20150201B rad_nat_640x48020150202C rad_ne_640x480_01

Another interesting thing is that the computer models didn’t see this storm as giving us a  foot of snow, nor do I, when I look at last Sunday morning’s map.

20150201 satsfc

However the storm is obvious on the current map.

20150202 satsfc

The thing of it is, in the above map the next storm is also not obvious. The computer models again think we will just get a dusting. I have a feeling we will get more.

The snow has been light and fluffy, and not that hard to remove, but drifts are getting pretty big in places, and another storm would make it hard, because we are running out of places to put the snow, as we remove it.

Future posts could get interesting, if winter becomes severe. Hopefully I’ll remember it isn’t whether you win or lose. It is how you play the game.

WIND SWINGS IN EUROPE

A low over the Baltic Sea with an extension over Italy are bringing a generally northerly flow Across Norway, Britain, and Spain. This is very different from last year when floods of warmth came up from the Azores high all the way to Finland.  The Azores high is suppressed at the bottom of the map.

UK MET 0201A 22029536

As the Baltic low weakens and is moved east, the Azores high is not able to slide north behind it, and rather a high pressure full of colder air which, though moderated by the Atlantic, is largely from arctic source regions starts to be pumped up south of Iceland. Rather than gales crossing the Atlantic and sliding north of Norway, bringing surges of warmth to Scandinavia, the lows are heading north and crashing into Greenland and Baffin’s Bay, with the warmth streaming towards the pole to feed an Arctic Gale, (mentioned in the prior post.) The best Atlantic storms can do is push a weak low into the Mediterranean via Spain.

UK Met 0201B 22033116

As the Baltic low fades east an new Atlantic gale forms north of Iceland, and a non-Azores high pressure is pumped up and approaching Britain, as the weak low enters the Mediterranean. The northern flow is breaking down over Western Europe. West winds are starting to develop a cross-Atlantic flow northwest of Iceland.

UK Met 0201C 22033624

Friday’s map shows the non-Azores high pressure extending across Europe, and winds from the west to its north. Though this seems to promise a break for Scandinavia from north winds, the Atlantic air is of a colder sort, with no benign Azores kindness. To the south of the high the winds will be east, when are seldom kindly in Europe, with Siberia in that general direction.

The gale south of Svalbard is weakening and is actually an appendage of a larger Gale brewing up over the Pole.

UK Met 0201D 22037814

What follows will be interesting to watch. Some models show the low south of Svalbard dropping back down to the Baltic, and the north winds returning to Norway, Britain and Spain. No winds from the Azores are in sight.

POLAR GALE TO SMASH SEA ICE?

Things have been quiet up at the Pole recently, which has allowed to cold air to stay up there. I approve of it staying up there. Who needs it down here? We get enough cold created by the tundra of Canada, and Europe gets enough from the tundra of Siberia, to make life quite miserable enough for any man. The last sting I want to see is a storm to go crashing up there and disturb the peace.

DMI2 0201B meanT_2015

DMI2 0201 temp_latest.big

Unfortunately models are now seeing a big rush of Atlantic air heading into the arctic and feeding the formation of a fairly large gale over the Pole. By Friday the Canadian model shows a 961 mb storm bringing winds over 50 knots over a large area of sea-ice.

DMI2 0201B cmc_mslp_uv10m_arctic_19

(click to enlarge)

This storm has a a sort of front trailing down to the Atlantic, with a sort of secondary low on that front, (though it is a little dangerous to see polar storms as obeying the rules of lower latitudes.) Even as the primary low wanders over towards Alaska it looks like the secondary will spin off and head down towards the Baltic Sea in Europe, replacing a storm that currently sits there. In between the two Baltic storms the north winds over western Europe may be replaced by east winds, but the sourse region of those west winds is waters off Greenland and not the Azores, so the relief will not be great, nor should people in western Europe drop their guard, for it looks like the respite will give way to a return of the north winds, once the second storm parks over the Baltic.

Models do a poor job of handling cross-polar-flows, so it is a time it is worth watching arctic maps carefully, to see how the models abruptly change their minds.  (These polar maps are Dr Ryan Maue’s, from the Weatherbell site.)

However it does seem the calm will end over the Pole, and any sort of gale up there does two things.

First, it tends to dislodge the cold air I would be glad to see just remain up there.  Be on the watch for some amazing arctic outbreaks.

Second, it can cause some leads, which ordinarily would be perhaps fifty feet across, open to fifty miles across. I personally think the creation of such wide areas of open water, at a time the sun isn’t even shining and the wind is coldest, causes the sea-water to become colder than it would be if sheltered by ice. Even though these leads freeze over with astonishing speed at the low temperatures, the water continues to lose heat until the ice is able to become thicker. Furthermore the fifty miles of ice that are shifted aside by the howling winds has to go somewhere, and it tends to pile up as jumbled pressure ridges against the north coast of Canada. Even though who think the sea ice of the Pole is in a “death spiral” tend to get excited by the appearance of open water in the dead of winter, because no melting occurs it represents an increase in volume, for more ice is created and none is melted. Lastly, the churning of the sea-water by gale force winds, before it swiftly refreezes, mixes the water and wipes out the stratification of warmer water beneath.

It will be a while before daylight returns to the Pole, and we can get visual pictures from satellites of the damages done by such gales, the cracks and expanding leads show up in the infrared pictures, so seek them out over the next fortnight. I have a hunch some cracks should appear.

 

LOCAL VIEW —Duster’s Bluster—

I’ll count my blessing, as a second blizzard intensified explosively out to sea just far enough, on Friday evening, to clobber Maine, but only clip us.  I’m not sure I could take more snow-removal, though I suppose you do what you have to, when you have to.

20150130 rad_ne_640x480_1220150130B rad_ne_640x48020150131 rad_ne_640x48020150131C rad_ne_640x480

(In the lower left of that last radar shot you can already see the next storm coming.)

As the blizzard hit Maine the winds on the west side began to pick up, as the isobars tightened. (Click, or open to new tabs, to clarify and enlarge maps.)

20150130B satsfc20150131 satsfc20150131C satsfc

Temperatures plunged in the roaring wind, and it was 2.6° (-16.3° Celsius) on Saturday morning. I was hoping the snow would have been just damp enough to form a crust and prevent drifting, but if any crust did form it was too fragile to stand up to the wind, which soon was digging down into the powder snow heaped up by last Tuesday’s blizzard. As the sun rose white in dazzlingly clear skies, the air was sparkling with tiny flakes of wind lifted snow.

I watched from inside at first. There was no way I wanted to go out in that wind. I’m not hot-blooded like my middle son, who headed out to cross country ski with his girlfriend.  When I decided I could hazard the heated cab of my truck and go to pick up some hay and grain for my goats, I passed “Windblown”, the local cross-country-ski area where I once worked and even ran a snack bar, twenty-five years ago, and saw business was booming, so I suppose my son isn’t the only person who enjoys being incredibly uncomfortable.

The roads were dry, and then you’d suddenly hit a place where the snow had drifted over the tar. Usually it was when there was an open field to the north or west, but occasionally it would be in the trees, and know the tree trunks must have formed some sort of coincidental, funneling tunnel. Sometimes the pavement would simply be powdered white, but in a few places the road would abruptly be deep, rutted snows. You had to make sure to keep your steering straight, and neither accelerate nor brake, until the pavement was dry again.

It was a wind that made you wince, and my goats had the sense to stay out of it. They’d found a south-facing area under the barn where they could stand in the sun and avoid the wind. They are not at all pleased by deep snow, as they don’t like walking where they can’t see what their feet are trodding upon, and are far less likely to wander and eat the neighbor’s shrubs, once the snows get deep. They are also more crabby, and take it out on each other, and give me glances as if they are contemplating taking it out on me, so I strongly advise them not to even think of it. The cold gives them a voracious appetite for the grain, and they are even less dismissive of hay than usual.

The chicken’s water was frozen, so I had to attend to thawing the dispenser and refilling it with warm water. By then my fingers felt like blocks of wood, and even my dog was standing by the door of the truck, ready to head home, which is unusual.  Temperatures had already started down, after reaching the day’s high of 12.7° (-10.7° Celsius.)

It was nice and warm at home. One of the benefits of deep snow on the roof of a 250-year-old house with lousy insulation is that it acts as a blanket, Also the pipes are less likely to freeze, with the foundation tucked in by white blankets of drifts. However I became suspicious when I noticed it was 70° by the front entry and only 60° on the kitchen where the wood stove was roaring, so I checked the thermostat for the propane heat. Sure enough, my son had turned it up, as like most young men he prefers his girlfriend warm. But he doesn’t pay the bill.

Now it is down to -3.5° (-19.7° Celsius) at 6:30 on a Sunday morning, and the wind has died down.  Already we have a winter storm warning for 7-12 inches of snow on Monday, with the high temperature during the storm expected to be around 10° (-12° Celsius). That’s a nasty cold snow, and makes today’s expected high temperature of 25° (-3.9° Celsius) seem downright balmy.

The power grid is being tested to the limit by the cold all over New England, and the wisdom of shutting down two power plants this January, because our president doesn’t like coal, (and Big Oil doesn’t like competition), is seeming less wise. So far we’ve only had one short brown-out, (when a transformer fire caused all sorts of frantic adjustments to be made to keep the power going), but people will really howl if the power goes off just as everyone sits down to watch the Superbowl. But that probably won’t happen, as so few businesses are operating on Sunday night. Monday will be the first real test, with many businesses starting up and running at full blast, even as many kids stay home from school and household electricity usage stays high.

Last year the cold came down further west, and we were on the eastern edge of the below-normal blasts, but it looks like New England will be right in the bulls-eye for the cold as February starts, and people west of the Great Lakes will get spared.

Here are the maps of the lull before the next storm. (Click to enlarge.)

20150201 satsfc20150201 rad_nat_640x480