LOCAL VIEW —Irrational reality—

We have enjoyed a couple of beautiful, crisp, clear, cold days, with plenty of sunshine but a certain tang in the air, making it like wine. The promised warm-up simply has failed to penetrate the northeast corner of the USA. In some ways it simply doesn’t make sense. In the world of the logic digitized into climate models, it is irrational.

The west hurled enormous amounts of mildness east. It was warmer in Alberta than Alabama. There was no chance a flimsily high pressure system could withstand the onslaught of kindly warmth. But look at the maps. It did.

Yesterday’s map:

20141214 satsfc


20141215 satsfc

The maps show a Pacific storm rolling across the USA like a bowling ball, with only the weakest if high pressure in its way, yet it was 27 degrees this morning, and barely nudged above freezing all day, here in New Hampshire. The northerly flow persisted, behind Storm #9, now well out to sea.

Not that I minded. A warm-up might involve clouds and rain, and our weather was cloudless and, by noon today, nearly windless. The low December sun shone clear and bright, and the leafless trunks of trees striped the landscape with long shadows. All seemed holding its breath in expectation of the warm-up that might never come.

The failure of the warm-up is quite clear when you compare Dr. Fyan Maue Weatherbell temperature maps from when ther warm-up seemed inevitable, and today when it seems quite evitable. First, the initial map from Decemer 13:

20141213 gfs_t2m_noram_1 (Click these maps to enlarge)

Then the initial map from today, December 16:

20141215 gfs_t2m_noram_1

Notice the mild air has moved from Alberta to the Great Lakes, but the cold has not budged from New Hampshire. Also notice southern Alberta has gone from mild temperatures around 40 to the teens, indicating cold will follow any warmth working east. Lastly notice the grey area to the top, indicating sub-zero air, has shifted southeast, taking dead aim on New Hampshire.

In other words, it does not look like the warm-up will last very long, if it ever gets here. As rational as the warm-up appeared, and as irrational as the alternative seemed, reality sometimes prefers the irrational.

(I sure hope it does, because I’m feeling a bit that way, these days.)

Some disapprove of the irrational, calling it chaos, but weather is a chaotic system, and look at the pretty curl of clouds chaos has created across the USA:

20141215 rad_nat_640x480_02

That pretty curl is the Pacific bowling ball storm, rolling across the USA, full of Pacific mildness and Chinook kindness, but notice how its west side has turned blue with snow. By the time it gets here it may see part of its east side turn blue with snow as well, which would make it Winter Storm #10.

Current local forecasts state we will only get rain, but that is based on rational stuff, and rational stuff hasn’t worked as well in reality as it does in the virtual world of computed prognosis, recently.

I was planning to use the above paragraph as an adroit Segway to a discussion of my personal life, which currently involves examples of the irrational trumping the rational.

This is to be expected because humans, like the weather, are chaotic systems. Like the weather they create curls which look like order, though they are made of chaos. Because such curls look like order, one even goes so far as to expect humans to be rational.

No such luck. I could give several humorous examples, but dealing with such lovable humans can be a bit exhausting, and my response to irrational humanity is to be even more irrational than they are.

The rational response to the irrational is to figure out what their problem is, and solve the problem. That is a lot of work. It increases my sense of exhaustion.  Therefore, rather than a rational response, I am going to do the irrational thing, which is to go to bed.

In the irrational world of dreams I will deal with all this irrational stuff. Then I will awake tomorrow and sound rational about it all.






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