LOCAL VIEW —SNOW ADVISORY—updated

The cold front that passed yesterday now has a ripple on it, and the mild air that was pushed south is trying to push back north, but unable to do so at the surface, so instead it is over-running the cold air that continues to flow south from the arctic high passing to our north. Rather than the frontal passage giving us blue skies and brisk northwest winds, the skies are gray and the wind is light, but slipping around to just east of north. All the signs are there for some mischief moving up from the south.

I have a cold and am in no mood for snow. What I’d rather do is lay about and conduct a study of how a cold suppresses my sense of humor. It is funny how things that seemed funny are not the slightest bit funny, once a cold lays you low.  Perhaps what causes the cold is a lack of humor.

The weather bureau has just come out with an advisory for one to three inches of snow, turning to freezing rain, starting this afternoon.

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UPDATE — 9:00 AM

It’s been a divided morning. If you looked out a north window there wasn’t a cloud in the spotless blue sky, but if you looked out a south window the sun was a smudge in the grey overcast. The dividing line was directly overhead overhead, but was shifting south, because the cold high pressure was winning for the moment, and the cold front was still settling south. Pressures have risen slightly to over 30.70 Hg (1040 mb)  as the temperature has stubbornly refused to rise, standing at 26 (-3 Celsius).

On Tuesdays I only have to open the Childcare, watch kids for an hour, and then get one group of six onto the school bus, and then load another group of six into the van and drive them to half-day-kindergarten, as another group of smaller children comes trooping in to take their place. I’m done by 8:30, but for some reason it always feels like a four hour shift. Time drags, because there is seldom enough time to do much.  Sometimes I’ll take some of the older children off on a brief hike to see if we can see any wildlife, but they make such a racket there’s seldom even a chickadee in sight. I often have the feeling the clock has stopped and the bus will never come. It makes me a bit crazy, and I create puns and bad jokes out of a sort of desperation, attempting to keep my brains from withering away.  The bus-children are old enough to know a bad joke is bad, and groan and tell me to stop, which is a break from me constantly telling them to stop their mischief. However the kindergarteners think I am hilarious. They ask for more.  I have the status of a rock star.

Today I was feeling particularly bored and crazy, due to my cold, and, because some only had light jackets and were complaining about being cold, when they bugged me for a story I told them about a person who went to buy a new jacket with a lining of fleece, but all the jackets he tried on made him feel incredibly itchy. When he complained the salesman said, “What do you expect from a jacket with a lining of fleas?”

My word. You’d think I was the funniest man on earth. I decided life wasn’t so bad. I always did have a secret desire to be a rock star, and now at long last I get to taste the experience.  The best thing is I don’t have to make up new stories all the time. They want to hear the old ones over and over, sort of like a rock star who is a one-hit-wonder.

Just since I began writing strato-cumulus has come sliding up from the southeast. The higher clouds are from the west. The stovepipe’s smoke says the wind is from the east-northeast. Something is brewing.

UPDATE —2:00 pm—

Temperature 30; Barometer 30.65, winds have shifted more to the east.  Low clouds still from southeast.

Heading back to the Childcare after stocking up the porch with firewood here. They’ll like a bright fire out in the pasture, this grey afternoon.

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UPDATE —7:45  PM—

Temperature 27 Pressure 30.60

Tiny snow grains began falling at around 2:30, amounting to only a speckling by 6:30, when abruptly fat snowflakes began mixing in, giving us a quarter inch before tapering off around 7:30. On the radar it looks all the world like a warm front, with a following cold front, but the Satellite shows the secondary far to the south in Tennessee.

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AFTERWARD  —6:00 AM WEDNESDAY—

Temperatures are just nudging above freezing, with the pressure down to 30.15 Hg, (1200 mb).  There is about an inch of slush to clean up from the walkways, so I guess I’ve call this storm #7. The edge of the precipitation is over us and moving away to the northeast.

I was meaning to write last night about the fire in the pasture yesterday afternoon, and the humor of finding I was the only sniffling person who needed it to stay warm.  I took out our plastic sleds, and every child was on the hillside sledding. If anything they were too hot, from running up the hill to sled down again. The snow left from the Thanksgiving snow was crusty, and the the sledding was fast.  The clouds made the early darkness even earlier, but the children didn’t seem to mind the dusk turning to a deep purple. I found myself locating them by their voices, rather than using my eyes, towards the end.  My campfire blinded me, but when I walked away from it I discovered the sledding hill was slightly lit by the orange flames. When parents pulled in to pick up their children their headlights lit a hillside swarming with zooming sleds.  It was a scene, and a sound, well worth describing, but my cold sent me swiftly to bed last night. Sometimes even a writer finds a pillow more attractive than a pen.

The map shows that, in the short term, the warmth hasn’t come surging back north like it did last time…yet.  So I’ve got an inch of slush to go clean up at the entrance to the Childcare.

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4 thoughts on “LOCAL VIEW —SNOW ADVISORY—updated

  1. Caleb I’m reading long range forecasts on Bloomberg of a warmer than average Dec but the GLO-BULL warming shills did the same for Nov and so I’m wondering if you’ve read anything by Joe Bastardi that u could pass on?
    Thanks.
    Calgary is right on average temps these days with -10 nights and around freezing days.

    • Hi. The models indeed are showing a spell of warmer weather, but both Joe Bastardi and Joseph D’Aleo are saying we shouldn’t drop our guard, for two reasons.

      The first reason is that prior to the winter’s start they looked into the past for other years with similar pre-winter conditions. They looked at quite a number of things, including some that seemed untested to me, such as the magnetic something-or-another of the sun, but what was given the most weight was the location of warmer-than-normal and colder-than-normal areas of sea-surface temperatures. Doing this gave them something like ten years that more-or-less started out like this one. Then they looked to see what followed with each of those ten examples. Their forecast is a sort of a blend, but what they have said is that what actually happens is that the current pattern will follow one specific year for a while, and then another specific year. We were following the winter of 1976-1977, which started cold and stayed cold, however that was unusual. A lot of the other years started cold but then backed off in December. One year that we are now copying in many ways is 2002-2003, which did have a milder December but then came back with teeth in January and February.

      The second reason is that, when you look at the specifics of that “milder” December in 2002, you note there was a Christmas snowstorm that made all the snow-lovers happy. Milder does not mean snow-free.

      They then proved their idea had merit by suggesting the Thanksgiving snowstorm was a possibility when the model was still predicting a coast-to-coast warm-up. Now the models are again predicting a coast-to-coast warm-up, and Joe sand Joseph are again pointing out a possible storm next week.

      What the models seem to do is see warmth off the west coast and off the east coast, and to connect-the-dots in a way that blends the two, and misses a small trough between the two. That trough then “phases” and becomes a big trough for only a brief time before “lifting out”, but that brief time is all a storm needs.

      Joe Bastardi is saying we have several chances for such storms before we go back into the colder pattern. He has dubbed the current pattern the “Heckuva Way To Run A Warm-up” pattern, because a series of arctic highs are likely to roll down the Canadian Rockies, then along the USA-Canada border, and then be absorbed back north, with each one bringing down just enough cold air to cause snow. (Most people do not equate a warm-up with snow.)

      Anyway, that is the way Joe and Joseph see things. Considering the GFS model was seeing a nice, warm spell for Thanksgiving, and instead we got a foot of snow with a brief arctic blast afterwards, I would not trust the models as much as Bloomberg apparently is doing. (I am not familiar with those forecasts.)

      I’m sure it is cold enough up in Calgary for you to get snow even in a “warm-up”. I know that the old-timers here in New Hampshire used to worry about storms when it grew mild in the winter, and then when it got cold they would say, “It’s too cold for snow.”

  2. Just read your post about your cold … look after yourself. I have had great success with the Neocitron decongestant lemon drink ( and the anti cough if u also have that) but what works on one geezer doesn’t always work on another geezer 😉

    • Thanks for your concern. I’m feeling a little better today. What I do is to make sure I get just enough vigorous exercise to clear my lungs, and to overdress and keep myself warm, and to get as much sleep as I can. I’ll take some sort of NyQuil-like stuff that stops coughing and congestion at bedtime, as that knocks me out and I don’t have my usual 2:00 AM insomnia. Sleep seems very important, though I do seem to be as congested as blue blazes when I first wake up. Once I cough myself clear of that I seem to be very restored by sleep, but need to baby myself for a day or two to avoid a relapse. I hope you are spared the bother this winter. Avoid germs, which means don’t run a Childcare.

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