Because it can’t get any colder, the question now becomes will it warm up or not. (warm upperknot.)
Well, let’s look at the map. (Click to clarify and enlarge.)
The low up in the upper right corner is Storm #2. It it was around 998 mb as it passed here, but now is down to 950 mb. Gales that strong are far more common to the north than down here, and that is one reason it is difficult to compare a gale in Scotland with a gale over Cape Cod. While gales often do get stronger as they head into the North Atlantic, a 975 mb low down here tends to be stronger than a 975 mb low up there.
Storm #3 is that weak clipper coming across the Great Lakes, and may give us a dust of snow tonight ahead of a weak warm front.
Behind #3 is what likely will be the final shot of cold air. Canada is drained, and you can see the cold front is pushed all the way to Cuba. Cold air pushed that far south simply has to warm up, and, with Canada likely to take time to brew up a new batch of cold air (or import some from Siberia), there is no way for temperatures to go but up. As the cold air is warmed it will sink less, and pressures will not be as high, until warmed air starts to rise and low pressure forms down in the Gulf of Mexico and becomes storm #4.
There is likely to be an equal but opposite surge of warmth back towards the north, and one model even suggests it may reach sixty degrees here by Sunday. (16 Celsius).
I’ll believe it when I see it. Models don’t handle extremes very well. They have no prior examples, and tend to be biased towards normal situations.
There is nothing normal about this November. There has been over five feet of lake-effect snow in places to our west. Joe D’Aleo pointed out in his Weatherbell blog that the last time the snows got off to such a wild start on lakefront cities like Buffalo was 1976. There’s that year again.
If warmth did surge back and bring rain on top of that snow it likely would stress roofs. I expect some are shoveling their shingles already. I’m glad I’m not facing that.
Here is has just been windy and very cold. The soil in the garden is starting to freeze. The kids at the Childcare can’t take the cold, as they haven’t got their “winter blood” yet. There is some sort of change to the metabolism that takes a week or two to kick in. It hasn’t happened yet, Also parents have been taken by surprise, and many kids are not yet properly muffled up for winter. We’ve spent more time indoors than usual, and I’ve been drenched by germs, as some sort of ‘flu is passing through town. I’d best get to bed early.
I just checked outside. Snow is falling, and the pines are roaring in the heights.