ARCTIC UPDATE —QUITE THE CRASH! —

Check out what has been happening to the arctic temperatures north of 80 degrees latitude, the past few days:

DMI2 1105B meanT_2014

In terms of politics, this twitch of a graph makes those banking on Global Warming wear dour expressions, like a soul chewing garlic, as the elation of being “above normal” has crashed to “below.”

I say, “The heck with that.” Politicians live in a sort of dream-word wherein they pursue cream puffs of power. Ordinary dorks like myself live in a harsher landscape, wherein we look north for signs of cruelty, a cruelty you can’t vote out of power, called “winter.”

Big, bad cold is building at the Pole:

DMI2 1105B temp_latest.big

Furthermore, Dr. Ryan Maue’s excellent maps at the Weatherbell site also indicate big, bad cold is building once again in eastern Siberia:

DMI2 1105B gfs_t2m_asia_1

The above map shows the very cold air over east Siberia being attacked by a spearhead of milder air from the west. As best as I can figure, the short-term effect of this spear-head will be to push some of the super-cold east-Siberian air east into the Pacific, and the rest north up into the arctic, (which is quite cold enough already, without any help from you, Siberia, thank you very much.)

I’m afraid that northward push will carry on past the Pole, and become a southward push. It is one of those situations where you can progress in a straight line and yet be moving in the opposite direction. (Oddly, police officers do not understand this concept, when I try to explain it to them.) (My wife does understand, but in a doubtful way.)

If the push carries on beyond the Pole, then push will come to shove, in terms of North America.

The Weatherbell expert Joe Bastardi is suggesting that, this time next week, we here in North America will be all freaking out as a Blue Norther comes roaring and howling down the east side of the Rockies clear to Texas.  (Or, well, maybe he didn’t put it in terms quite that dramatic, and I am embellishing a bit, but I could claim he was insinuating as much.)

If you ask me, I will shrug and say, “Don’t ask me.” I can’t look to the computer models, for they have been flip-flopping like flounder on a hot tin roof. (Don’t ask what a flounder is doing up there.)

As far as a layman like myself can tell, models have gone haywire because winds down in the Pacific, which were roaring one way, swung around and started roaring another. Winds do this all the time, and to me it is no big deal, but to computer models it the difference between a anti-El-Nino situation and a pro-El-Nino situation. If that lone breeze switches, it changes the entire planet. Or so they say.

To that I say, “Humph!” If they know so much, why didn’t they see it coming? Is that lone breeze smarter than they are? One lousy, -bleep-ing breeze swings around in the tropics, and all the computer models are sent scrambling? They revise like mad, saying, “What we forecast yesterday was a total lie, and here is the truth”?

As a layman who largely relies on such models, all I can tell you about models is that I currently don’t trust them, as they are flip-flopping like mad.  All I can tell you about cold air is that there is a big, bad pool of it up north. All I can tell you about Joe Bastardi is that he has given us folk in North America a “head’s up,” and suggests a batch of that frigid air is headed our way.

(UPDATE TO UPDATE)

I know I just said I didn’t trust models, but allow me to be a complete hypocrite for a moment.

Joseph D’Aleo posted this Maue-map, (along with many others) on his blog over at Weatherbell. It shows what the European model is forecasting, in terms of how much below normal it will be between November 10th and November 14th.  Once you start seeing the green colors you are talking more than ten degrees below normal, and that cold core in Saskatchewan is twenty below normal (and “normal” is plenty cold up there.)

Yikes.   …but I don’t trust models….do I?

DMI2 1105B eps_t2anom_conus_6__57_

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2 thoughts on “ARCTIC UPDATE —QUITE THE CRASH! —

  1. I have been following a storm that is supposed to be entering the Bering Sea this weekend at this blog. It is forecast to have minimum SLP value of 924 millibars.

    Regarding the cold.
    “The temperature anomalies at the 10 millibar level, in the far upper reaches of the stratosphere, over the past month or so. According to this animation, we recently saw a very early stratospheric warming event overtake the Eurasia and North Pacific basin. If we remember that the warmth in the stratosphere typically results in very cold weather at the surface about 2-4 weeks later”.

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/

    • I saw that GFS forecast as well, over at Joseph D’Aleo’s site. Pressure down near 924 mb would threaten the record for low pressure in the North Pacific, set back on October 25, 1977.

      Perhaps it is yet another sign we are in for a brutal winter, like we had back in the late 1970’s.

      I wasn’t so sure the upper stratospheric warming event would have the same effect now as it seems to have in the dead of winter, but I guess we are about to find out.

      Thanks for commenting, and sharing the link.

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