Hurricane Ana to strike Pacific Northwest?

On his excellent blog at Weatherbell, Joe Bastardi pointed out that Hurricane Ana, which cut to the west of Hawaii, could curve northwest and then travel west to hit the Pacific coast of Oregon.   The models are now showing the possibility of such a track.

Anna 2 gefs_CP02_current(1)

Though it is rare for hurricanes to become entrained in Pacific gales in such a manner, Joe pointed out that way back in 1962 Hurricane Freda took such a route.  He included screen-shots of model’s maps that made Ana’s position on the 28th create a map very much like Freda’s in 1962.

Anna 1 Screen_shot_2014_10_22_at_1_35_59_PM  (Joe posts between two and six times a day, and I highly recommend his site.)

The 1962 storm was so wild it resulted in a considerable blow-down of giant trees. Considering I was just walking through amazing glades of Redwoods and Sequoia only two weeks ago, I am hoping the storm falls apart.

The defense those trees have used for centuries, (surviving two thousand years worth of storms in some cases,) is to interlock their roots. The problem is that in many case the nearby trees were “thinned” by lumbermen, back when the supply of such trees seemed limitless. Therefore the roots no longer interlock with neighbors as much or as well. They are less able to withstand high winds.

I hope they don’t need to face high winds for another fifty years, so they can grow more roots and interlock with new neighbors. The inspire such awe that people become quiet and walk softly when in a grove.  Even loudmouths like me are hushed by them. I sure would hate to see anything happen to them, though what a noise they must make when they fall!

UPDATE —SATURDAY MORNING, OCTOBER 25—

Ana is currently forecast to head further north and to hit the northern tip of Vancouver Island at 0000z on October 29, with steady tropical force winds of 51 mph, and much higher gusts.

Anna 3 201402C_10250243

Those folk up there get winter gales stronger than that.

The question remains: how much of that wind and rain will get south to California? (The rain this weekend is not associated with Ana, though it is part of the “moisture stream” that will carry Ana east.)  Saturday looks rainiest.

California drought 1 map_specnews17_ltst_4namus_enus_320x180

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13 thoughts on “Hurricane Ana to strike Pacific Northwest?

    • Thanks. I have a brother living on the coast right down on the California border, and emailed him as soon as I finished my post. Judging from the isobars on the model’s current map the winds would be strongest there, around the 28th.

      • They sure could use a coastal storm in California. When I drove down the west coast at the start of October it got pretty brown as I got down towards LA. Then, as soon as I headed east into Arizona, it got green again, because of the tropical storms that came up the west coast of Mexico and then moved inland.

  1. Ana is well below hurricane level and is a tropical storm. Personally I can’t imagine a storm surviving the turn and run on the jet stream over the next 6 days and not be all torn apart. Especially considering the colder water that it should be hitting but Joe’s knowledge of history is excellent and so it must have been so with Freda. We shall see.
    I’m always in awe of the giant trees … one of my favourite spots on the planet and woods like that are one of the reasons I became a geologist but then I sat in an office for 35 years looking at paper and computer screens … but I was warm and dry 🙂

    • I suppose I should learn more about what is meant by the word “entrained.” Perhaps the storm loses a lot of its identity but the energy involved still packs a punch.

      Ana actually regained hurricane strength, when last I checked, though it was a minimal storm. The center looks like it is aiming for Vancouver Island at 0000z on the 29th, now.

    • Thanks for that great link. It really shows the stream of moisture digging under the upper air low south of Alaska and northwest of you. Ana is riding that stream like a cork in a brook.

      I’m glad to hear that wild September snow melted away. I hate what snow does to trees when the leaves are on the branches. Did you get much free firewood?

    • Will any of the moisture from the Saturday morning storm make it over the mountains to Calgary from the Pacific? Or does it all get wrung out, giving you a mild and dry Chinook?

      • We haven’t had Chinook conditions for about 5 days now because the systems in the plains are winning the war of push that controls so much of S Alberta’s weather. Moisture has stayed either north or south of us but is coming today and there is snow in the mountains which is a good place for it. Several ski hills hope to open for Nov 7th and the remembrance day (ur veterans day) long weekend for the school kids.
        Enjoying ur posts since we both watch the winter evolve in the north and more recently in Siberia.

  2. Caleb, I looked this AM and could spot nothing of the remains of Ana … are u able to see anything that could be the remanents of Ana. Perhaps it has been torn apart by greater forces?
    Back into winter in Calgary with maybe 4 cm snow last night and perhaps a measley cm remaining on cooler surfaces this morning but otherwise all melted and roads dry. The thermometer is doing it’s best impression of the “dead dog” … check it out http://wx.ca/ flat lining at the freezing level.

    • It looks like your temperatures finally popped up a bit yesterday afternoon, but then got cold last night.

      Ana is now a weak impulse crossing the Rockies. Although it is a mere dent in the isobars, as it penetrates the high pressure over the Rockies, it represents a bundle of energy that will reappear in the Great Pains, and may catch up to the cold front dangling down from the storm crossing the Great Lakes, adding fuel to the fire, and giving the east coast a pretty decent nor’easter on Saturday. I’m hoping it stays south of here, as I still have a lot of fall chores to do this weekend. (See my latest post.)

      I don’t like it that you got snow, because that air is likely headed my way.

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