I find a bit of fun in tracking hurricanes after everyone else stops paying attention. Just for the fun of it, let’s follow what Gonzalo is forecast to do.
The first map is last night’s, and shows Gonzalo as an ex-hurricane just east of Newfoundland, being absorbed into a system of fronts beneath a North Atlantic gale. (Keep an eye on the dull-looking front settling down into France.)
The forecast map for 1200z today sees Gonzalo already halfway across the Atlantic, as a mere southern lobe of a Icelandic gale. (The dull front continues to sink south across France.)
By 0000z Gonzalo is crashing through Scotland. Though it is but a lobe of the Icelandic low, it holds a tremendous amount of humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, which covered the entire east of the USA last week, but now is bundled up and largely aloft. (The dull front over France shows the slightest kink, as it feels the approach of Gonzalo.)
By 1200z tomorrow the forecast map shows Gonzalo visiting the blonds of Norway and Denmark. The Icelandic low is no longer kicking it ahead, but instead is starting to drag it back in a sort of Fujiwara dance, however the cross-Atlantic onrush is kicking ahead into France. I call such an onrush, which can move east even as the low itself occludes and stalls, a “zipper.” (The dull front over France has a definite wave developing in northern Italy.)
By 0000z on Wednesday some would see Gonzalo as being stalled over Denmark, however my eyes follow the “zipper” which holds the juice and momentum of the storm, and see it crashing into northern Italy and making a ruckus there, with high winds in the Alps.
By 1200z Wednesday some will see Gonzalo still occluded, its moisture high above Denmark, but I see Gonzalo in the zipper, now north of Greece and approaching the Black Sea.
By 1200z Thursday Gonzalo is relaxing on the east coast of the Black Sea, after receiving a hefty pay-off from Russians for trashing Bermuda, and forcing people to vacation at Black Sea resorts instead.
Of course more sensible people will have forgotten all about Gonzalo, and will be focused on the Fujiwara dance of twin Icelandic lows. But who ever said fun was sensible?
If you insist on being sensible, look north of Gonzalo and the Black Sea, and see a cold east flow developing and shifting Siberian air back towards the Baltic, which is an ominous thing to see if it becomes “a pattern.” Sensible people might focus on that, and argue whether that east wind, or the southwest wind over Ireland, will dominate West Europe this winter. (It could be a blend of both, with bitter Siberian cold and north Atlantic gales alternating.)