UPDATES WILL BE ADDED TO BOTTOM OF POST JUNE 30 Arthur-To-Be is already showing a better structure than I thought it would this early. (Ordinarily now would be when I was just perking up and noticing it, but over on his Blog at the WaetherBELL premium site Joe Bastardi pointed out this storm was possible on Friday, and changed that to likely by Saturday.) It is drifting south, but likely to pause and then start drifting north tomorrow, and really be intensifying by Wednesday, but not really to start up the coast until Thursday, and the surf will be up on the east coast beaches on July 4th as this thing starts racing north, clipping Cape Hatteras bwfore turning out to sea…..or will it? That is always the question on the east coast. To be honest, I’ve been expecting New England to be clobbered since 1990, when the AMO turned warm. In the 1930-1960 active-time New England had the 1938 monster, a huge Cape Cod hurricane in 1944, and then a mass of storms in the 1950’s, including Carol, Edna and Hazel in 1954. Then it was quiet from 1960-1990, but I figured the 1990-2020 period would again see great activity. FAIL. I keep rushing out thinking I’m Paul Revere and wind up looking like Chicken Little. I am even more of an Alarmist than a Global Warming fanatic, although this has nothing to do with Global Warming. (Irene and Sandy were really not all that bad, compared to what the “Big One” could do.) Therefore I just link to an article I wrote a couple of years ago, so I don’t have to go through the trouble of amassing the data all over again: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/21/hurricane-warning-mckibben-alert/ Here’s the current map. (Click for full-size view) Arthur-to-be is that meek low off Florida. What is likely to happen is that high up the coast will get out of the way and the front up in the Great plains will come east and sweep the hurricane out to sea. Sweet and simple, and likely to happen. But there is always that 5% chance of the typical solution not occurring, in weather. So I’m watching for the worst case scenario. That will occur if the low dragging the cold front down zooms away into Canada, and a secondary low gets left behind on the front, and rather than southwest winds pushing the hurricane out to sea, there are southeast winds ahead of that secondary low sucking the hurricane inland. Also, if the hurricane gets strong quickly it lifts a lot of air, and what goes up must come down, and the high pressure at the edges can be “pumped” by descending air. If the high to the north gets “pumped” it will also tend to resist a movement of the hurricane out to sea. A lot of the steering goes on up at the level shown by 500 mb maps, but I have my head up in the clouds too much as it is. I highly recommend going and sitting at the feet of Joe Bastardi at his weatherBell Premium site. (This would be a good week to take advantage of their 7-day-free-trial.) Today he posted a 500 mb map of the strong westerly flow over New England in 1954, just 36 hours before Carol came roaring up the coast and smashed us. It looks impossible for a hurricane to penetrate that flow, but a low pressure trough to the west swung east and dug down. Things can change very swiftly when they want to, and it is best to stay on your toes. Here’s the map from 1954: I’ll post updates at the bottom of this post as things develop. UPDATE A good post by Joe Bastardi here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/ UPDATE JULY 1 Some of the models are now seeing this with winds over 100 mph as it passes out to sea west of Hatteras. Currently it has winds below 35 mph and hasn’t even been named, off Florida. (click to enlarge) Feeder bands starting to appear on radar, to the north of the low. A lot of thunderstorm activity over inland Florida could compete and weaken the storm a little later this afternoon. (Click to enlarge) 11:00 AM —ARTHUR OFFICIALLY NAMED— NHC Places Arthur at 27.6N, 79.3W, drifting NW at 2 mph, pressure at 29.74, winds at 40 mph. They’re thinking it will be a hurricane in 72 hours; I’d say sooner. I’ll bet a nickle on 48 hrs. JULY 2 2:00 AM —Up to 60 mph winds— 28.0 N, 79.1 W Moving north at 4 mph. Pressure 29.56
July 2 2:00 PM ---continuing to drift north--- LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES JULY 3 ---5:00 am UPDATE---
LOCATION...31.3N 79.1W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
7:00 AM NO WATCHES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, BUT THEY DID INCLUDE THE FOUR WORDS "TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE" IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST, AS AN ASIDE.
8:00 AM ARTHUR STRENGTHENING—NOW A HURRICANE LOCATION…31.8N 78.7W ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES I notice strong convection is wrapping around the south side, coming from the west side of the storm where you usually watch for a “dry slot” to be drawn in. The fact we are seeing strong convection rather than a dry slot indicates to me this storm means business. New England shouldn’t lower its guard yet, though all models show this storm out to sea. Notice the cold front has become stationary to the west, and some low pressure is on the front west of the storm. (click to enlarge) 11:00 AM Arthur up to 90 mph winds
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
Joe Bastardi sees no trough split, and the storm going out to sea once north of Hattaras. Hmm. I’m nit so sure, but have to go run a childcare in ninty degree heat. That is a hurricane in and of itself. I’ll just keep the hose running and spray the wild animals down. JULY 4 —3:00 AM—HATTERAS GETTING CLOBBERED—
LOCATION...35.6N 75.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
2:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 4
Location: 38.5°N 72.4°W
Moving: NE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
|8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 4
Location: 40.3°N 69.6°W
Moving: NE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
I’m glad I don’t have to make forecasts. While the radar at 8:00 PM shows the center and rain-bands still moving northeast as expected, north of the rain-bands the rain is heading to the northwest, right towards me. Outside it is rainy, with the low clouds moving opposite the way the radar is saying the rain showers are moving, with scud coming from the northeast. The map shows the front has stalled and a local low is right over us. It wouldn’t surprise me if the hurricane cut back, closer to Cape Cod, though that is not a forecast. The whole complex is rushing north so swiftly that even if it cut back drastically it likely would hit the Bay of Fundy and eastern Maine, and not here. But I never lower my guard until these things are past.
If I was a boy, I’d be bummed out: Cold and rainy and no night for fireworks.
LOCATION...43.1N 66.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
A beautiful, brisk morning, here in New Hampshire, with purple clouds sliding away to the east. A the world is rain-washed, and ready to grow. Last night the neighborhood was full of bangs and flashes, despite the rain, and even as I drifted off to sleep at ten the ruckus was still going on, so I think the children were happy.
I can at long last answer the question that began this post. No. Arthur will not hit New England. Even Nantucket only got gusts to sixty, with the steady winds down around 45 mph. The rest of us only got the indirect consequence of needed rain, as the hurricane bumped against the cold front.
Before I put this story to bed, I should note that low pressure associated with Arthur could wobble and split, undulate and morph, and be a storm over the North Pole a week from Monday.
In terms of the next hurricane, nothing is in sight to the south. Sound the “all clear,” maybe until August, and get back to weeding the garden.