DORIAN’S GHOST STILL HAUNTING

satsfc (3).gif July 29, 2013(CLICK MAP TO ENLARGE)

DORIAN’S GHOST STILL HAUNTING

As a layman, just looking at the above map, I’d say New England will be all abuzz about a hurricane next weekend.  Just look at that feature north of Puerto Rico.  It is the ghost of Dorian, and it sure looks like it has a tropical swirl to me.  Second, look at that nice, refreshing Canadian high pressure area, pushing the front off our coast.  By the weekend it will have passed over us and will be blending into the Bermuda High off our coast, and perhaps strengthening that high, which would then keep Dorian from curving out to sea. Whether or not Dorian swerved inland would depend on the trough following the high, a feature that doesn’t really even exist yet.

Having said all that, I need to hasten to add I am just a layman, and the experts seem less worried than I.  The National Hurricane Center gives Dorian only a 30% chance of redeveloping:

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS 
A WELL-DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION....AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Dorian 2 July 29 atl1

I can’t but help look at that picture and shake my head. It sure looks tropical to me.  So I next go to WeatherBELL to see if Joe Bastardi has posted.  He has, but seems far more concerned about a cool August than this little whirl of clouds. About Dorian he says:

” Dorian is fighting but not pulling the mid level center with the low level center. There were some west winds on the recon, but east of the mid level center, which instead of coming along with the low level, breaks down then reforms as convection reforms, This pulsing is not an intensification sign. Its as if the dry air keeps getting in and stopping the storm from coordinating the low mid and upper features needed to sustain this. However with 46 kt winds reported ne of the niche that might be a low level center, the system bears watching. The nam remains in line with weatherbell.com on track, though it appears overdone. In any case its Friday at 06z map

Dorian July 29 nam_mslp_uv10m_se_29

So there you have it, even when the Nam Computer Model sticks a storm off Florida he barely bats an eye.

Me? I am batting an eye. But maybe I’m just scared of ghosts.

UPDATE JULY 30 — The low level center, more of a wave than a spinning storm, got out ahead of the convection over night, and ran into some “sheer” ahead of the mid-level center, so that rather than more organized the entity is more disorganized. The mess is likely to move up into the Bahamas and then drift about. I imagine it is so disorganized that, if it redevelops, they will give it a new name.  Call it, “The reincarnation of Dorian.”

UPDATE 2 JULY 30 11:00 — Did that pretty looking swirl of clouds get crushed, or what? It looks like I was scared of ghosts.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

At this point the qualified meteorologists look good, while I, the old geezer stroking his jaw while looking at the sky, look like a dope.  Score one point for science and zero for intuition.

Not that I’m not sensing something or another that will become apparent by the weekend, but in the short term it can be definitely stated that I was wrong. Is that such a bad thing?

There are all too many people these days who like to mock and scorn forecasters, without ever daring make a forecast themselves. If they dared do it, they’d see how good the guys they laugh at actually are.

  Also there are far too many who make forecasts that are wrong, these days, who don’t just say, “My forecast was wrong.”  Instead they shift the goal posts. For example, when warming doesn’t occur the stop talking about “Global Warming” and start talking about “Climate Change.”

Well, if that insignifigant smudge of cloud fades away, and there is nothing off Florida this weekend, tune back here and you will see me say, “I was wrong.”  I doubt I’ll drop dead or turn into a frog, or any such dire thing.  In fact I’ll likely stand stronger.

For pride comes before the fall, and it is better to stand corrected than to fall unimproved.

Saturday, August 3 Update—Well, it’s Saturday, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded Dorian to something called a “Post Tropical Cyclone,” and has issued a couple  advisories.  The most recent:

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

...DORIAN NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY
SUNDAY. 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.

You might think I am off the hook, and don’t have to admit my old-geezer intuition was wrong, however look at the faint swirl of clouds: (click to enlarge)

Dorian August 3 vis0_lalo(3)

Dorian is not that bright area of clouds east of Florida, but rather that faint swirl east of Georgia.  New England is not concerned about it, and, as my intuition was that “New England will be all abuzz about a hurricane next weekend,” I am wrong both about the hurricane and the buzz.  (I am also wrong about the pattern steering this swirl, as it will likely curve sharply out to sea, and not come up the coast.)

However, as there is still another day until the weekend is over, I don’t have to admit defeat until tomorrow, and I might get lucky and break a leg before then.

Sunday, August 4—  I was wrong.

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4 thoughts on “DORIAN’S GHOST STILL HAUNTING

  1. A revival certainly remains a possibility, but Dorian’s remnants finally seem to be succumbing to the unfavorable wind conditions. Just in case you didn’t know already, http://spaghettimodels.com/ is an excellent page for anything tropical in the Atlantic. So many great tools in one place.

    • That link is a real treasure trove. Thanks for alerting me.

      It looks to me like what is left of Dorian nearly kicked the bucket last night, and now is going through another pulse of convection.

      I like to watch the three “Huge Satellite Loop” maps, which I had links to already. They give me a “feel” for what is going on.

      To talk about what I “feel” is surely not scientific. I put the ideas out there as an old codger who talks about stuff while stroking a bristly grey chin. It is a test of the ideas concerning what local yokels know “in their bones,” (IE via intuition,) and it does not surprise me when I am wrong.

      A lot of people who criticize forecasters never stick their own necks out and give forecasting a try. It is when you actually take the risk, and are wrong, that you come to appreciate fellows like Bastardi, and see how good they are.

  2. Joe Bastardi does indeed seem concerned, or enthused, about the cold August. For good reason because it’s still July but it’s unseasonably chilly across the US. I really like Joe but sometimes his tweets are a little cryptic. Take his most recent:

    August looks like a top 5 cold August on the ECMWF last 30 years. Texas the center of small area above in south. Dang

    ??

    • That does sound a bit like an incomplete thought, as if he is thinking aloud. I get the feeling he is seeing something he isn’t saying, in the coolness of the August.

      A very early frost, at the very end of August, followed by a long and lovely Indian Summer in September, is a “sign” of a very cold winter, in Yankee lore.

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