HEAT VS HYPE

satsfc (3).gif July 17, 2013

HEAT VS HYPE

It is hot, all right.  A back door front only nudged down to Maine, and gave New Hampshire no respite. At our Childcare the kids don’t want to do anything but splash in the pool and run under the sprinkler, and the goats stay in the shade under the barn until the cool of the evening.  It is the real thing, high summer, and the way July is suppose to be.

So of course the media makes a big deal of it.  They have to sell papers, after all.  However there is quite enough heat-related news to report without exaggerating a normal heat wave into a “unprecedented” event.

One needs to fact-check the media, and to compare the current heat wave with some monsters of the past.  For example, look at the data from Rockford, Illinois, (near Chicago.)

Rockford’s Temperature Records
(Rockford Coop Station 1905 – 1950;
Rockford Municipal Airport 1951 – present)

Rockford’s 100 Degree or Greater Days
Daily high temperatures of 100 degrees or greater recorded in Rockford
(from earliest to most recent).

Date Temperature
August 5, 1896 100
July 9, 1897 100
July 4, 1911 101
July 5, 1911 100
July 6, 1911 102
June 30, 1913 100
July 31, 1913 101
September 3, 1913 100
July 28, 1916 103
July 29, 1916 104
July 30, 1916 104
July 31, 1916 105
August 5, 1916 102
August 19, 1916 100
August 21, 1916 100
July 31, 1917 101
August 1, 1917 100
August 5, 1918 104
August 6, 1918 102
August 7, 1918 101
 July 4, 1921 100
July 7, 1921 100
July 11, 1921 104
July 12, 1921 103
July 13, 1921 104
September 6, 1922 102
September 7, 1922 100
September 8, 1922 101
June 24, 1923 100
September 4, 1925 101
September 5, 1926 100
July 19, 1930 100
July 20, 1930 102
July 27, 1930 100
August 3, 1930 100
June 26, 1931 100
June 28, 1931 100
June 29, 1931 103
June 30, 1931 102
July 1, 1931 101
July 28, 1931 100
 July 15, 1932 100
June 20, 1933 100
June 27, 1933 103
May 31, 1934 106
June 1, 1934 106
June 3, 1934 100
June 28, 1934 103
July 20, 1934 101
July 21, 1934 102
July 22, 1934 104
July 23, 1934 104
July 24, 1934 107
July 25, 1934 105
August 9, 1934 100
July 30, 1935 100
1*July 6, 1936 102
1*July 7, 1936 105
1*July 8, 1936 104
1*July 9, 1936 101
1*July 10, 1936 106
1*July 11, 1936 108
1*July 12, 1936 109
1*July 13, 1936 110
1*July 14, 1936 112
*July 16, 1936 100
*July 17, 1936 104
*July 26, 1936 103
*August 9, 1936 100
*August 18, 1936 101
 *August 22, 1936 101
August 16, 1937 102
September 7, 1939 103
September 14, 1939 101
September 15, 1939 102
July 23, 1940 100
July 24, 1940 100
July 25, 1940 104
July 28, 1941 100
July 29, 1941 102
August 11, 1941 101
August 6, 1947 100
August 18, 1947 100
August 19, 1947 100
August 20, 1947 100
August 23, 1947 101
August 24, 1947 102
August 24, 1948 100
August 31, 1953 101
September 1, 1953 102
September 2, 1953 101
July 26, 1955 102
July 27, 1955 103
August 21, 1955 100
2July 1, 1956 100
2June 20, 1988 101
June 21, 1988 100
June 25, 1988 101
July 15, 1988 102
August 1, 1988 101
August 16, 1988 104
August 17, 1988 102
July 10, 1989 100
July 19, 2011 100
July 20, 2011 100
June 28, 2012 100
July 4, 2012 102
July 5, 2012 102
July 6, 2012 104
July 7, 2012 105
July 17, 2012 100

1 Greatest number of consecutive 100 degree days (9)

*Greatest number of 100 degree days in one year (15)
2Marks a 33 year period in which temperatures did not climb to 100 degrees

Number of Days of 100 Degrees or More by Decade

 1893 – 1899  2
 1900 – 1909  0
 1910 – 1919  18
 1920 – 1929  11
 1930 – 1939  44
 1940 – 1949  13
 1950 – 1959  7
 1960 – 1969  0
 1970 – 1979  0
 1980 – 1989  8
 1990 – 1999  0
 2000 – 2009  0
 2010 – 2012  8

It quickly becomes obvious that 1936 was a murderous summer, and there were others.  Last summer was quite hot, with six days in triple digits, but 1988 had seven, as did 1916, when the world supposedly was cooler.

You can check the facts in city after  city, and over and over see that our current hot spell isn’t all that special.  So why exaggerate?

The most annoying exaggerations are the official ones, called “adjustments.”  These are demonstrated by two graphs produced by NASA, one in 1998 and one in 2011, which “adjust” away the heat of the torrid Dust Bowl years, and “adjust” current warmth until it looks warmer than the Dust Bowl.  (The comparison was put together by Anthony Watts.) (Click to enlarge.)

Map 1giss_conus_1999-vs-2011

There is no way you can look at such a mangling of actual data gathered from actual thermometers, and not suspect the exaggeration was done to promote the political agenda associated with “Global Warming.”  The excuses given for the “adjustments” are lame. If anything modern temperatures should be adjusted down, to take into account the fact our modern cities retain heat that older and more open cities didn’t.  However the adjustments are upwards for recent times, and down for the Dust Bowl.

Then look back at the data for Rockford.  In July of 1936 they had nine straight days with temperatures over a hundred, including their all-time record of 112.  We are experiencing nothing even close to what our grandparents experienced.

I think the only reason it seems hot is that I get so darn mad about the dishonesty involved.  Therefore I think I am going to try to go a solid week without posting a single thing about Global Warming.

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One thought on “HEAT VS HYPE

  1. Great point. Can you imagine 112 in 1936… I wonder how many people had AC. We can live through the 120 here, but… we don’t go outside much. You go from the air conditioned house, to the air conditioned car, to the air conditioned office. Most of my outside time is in the EARLY morning or late evening. Even then, it’s in the high eighties or low nineties, sometimes even 100, but that’s not too bad as long as there is some shade.

    Of course, when it comes to data, what is the saying…”if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything”

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